Military: Atropia

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Like most countries in the region, Atropia possesses a long history of regional irregular and regular warfare that shapes the country’s military attitudes. Donovia’s regional influence and over a century of ever-changing political boundaries never coincided satisfactorily with Atropia’s ethnic groupings. These unresolved issues contributed to the Atropian military’s current state. Atropia contains a majority Muslim population that remains less radical than the religious fundamentalists found in Ariana, but the possibility remains for Islamist attitudes to gain noteworthy influence over the military, with the potential for increased radicalization.

Military Forces

The Atropian military consists of a small army, navy, and air force with limited offensive capabilities. The entire ground force roughly corresponds to the size of one US army corps, and the army dominates the Atropian military in terms of size and funding. The military generally uses equipment with technology 10 to 20 years old to make it a tier 2 fighting force. Due to the military’s small size, Atropia limits its scope to defending the country’s borders and regional operations, mostly directed against Limaria. The size of the Atropian military mirrors that of Limaria’s forces. Continual skirmishes with Limaria over disputed territory drive Atropia’s military doctrine, force structure, and deployment of forces. Like many of the countries in the region, Donovia’s doctrine and force structure influence Atropia. Unlike Limaria, however, hydrocarbon revenue allows Atropia to modernize its military.

Military Strategy

Atropian National Command Authority

All countries share a similar National Command Authority (NCA) construct including Gorgas, who refers to it as a National Council. Atropia’s NCA exercises overall control of the application of all instruments of national power to plan and carry out the national security strategy. The Atropian Army Chief of Staff, however, serves as the highest military individual in the chain of command over the military. The Atropian president serves as the commander in chief of the armed forces and functions at the top of the military hierarchy and decision-making process.

Strategic Operational Framework

Atropian Supreme High Command

The strategic operational framework for all countries in the region is similar in construct and application. This is primarily the result of historic influences transcending the region. The NCAs and the NC for all five countries exercise command and control (C2) of the Armed Forces via the Supreme High Command (SHC) that includes the Ministry of Defense (MOD) and a General Staff drawn from all the service components. In peacetime, the MOD and General Staff operate closely but separately. The MOD assumes the responsibility for Armed Forces policy, acquisitions, and financing. The General Staff promulgates policy and supervises the service components while its functional directorates assume responsibility for key aspects of defense planning. In wartime, the MOD and General Staff merge to form the SHC, which functions as a unified headquarters.

All five countries currently configure their militaries in an administrative force structure (AFS) that manages its military forces in peacetime. This AFS contains the aggregate of various military headquarters, facilities, and installations designed to man, train, and equip the forces. In peacetime, the various militaries group their forces into corps for administrative purposes. In some cases, the militaries may group their forces administratively under geographical commands designated as military regions or military districts. If the SHC elects to create more than one theater headquarters, it may allocate parts of the AFS structure to each of the theaters, normally along geographic lines. Typically, these administrative groupings differ from the country’s go-to-war (fighting) force structure. Other parts of the administrative force structure consist of assets centrally controlled at the national level. (See FM 7-100.4 Opposing Force Organization Guide: Chapter 3, Task Organizing.)

National Strategic Goals

The NCA determines the direction and scope of Atropia’s strategic mission. Atropia’s overall goals include the defense of its hydrocarbon resources, the eventual recovery of its Lower Janga province, and defense against any regional attacks by potential enemies. Atropia may possess one or more specific goals, each based on a particular threat or opportunity. Examples of specific strategic goals include:

• Resolution of territorial disputes, especially those with Limaria
• Defense of Atropia’s sovereignty and hydrocarbon resources
• Economic expansion
• Destruction of insurgent groups, especially those in the greater Lower Janga region

Implementing National Security Goals

All five countries share similar strategies to achieve their national goals. Strategic operations for all five countries remain a continuous process not limited to wartime or preparation for war. Once war begins, strategic operations continue during regional, transition, and adaptive operations and complement those operations. Each of the latter three types of operations occurs only during war and only under certain conditions. Transition operations can overlap regional and adaptive operations.

Atropian Strategic Operations in Peace and War

In pursuit of their national security strategy, all four countries find themselves prepared to conduct four basic types of strategic-level courses of action. The four types of operations include:

• Strategic operations use all instruments of power in peace and war to achieve a country’s national security strategy goals through attacks against the enemy’s strategic centers of gravity.
• Regional operations include conventional, force-on-force military operations against overmatched opponents, such as regional adversaries and internal threats.
• Transition operations bridge the gap between regional and adaptive operations and contain some elements of both. The country continues to pursue its regional goals while dealing with developing outside intervention that has the potential to overmatch its military.
• Adaptive operations preserve the country’s power and apply it in adaptive ways against opponents that overmatch the country’s military.

Implementing National Security Goals

All five countries share similar strategies to achieve their national goals. Strategic operations for all five countries remain a continuous process not limited to wartime or preparation for war. Once war begins, strategic operations continue during regional, transition, and adaptive operations and complement those operations. Each of the latter three types of operations occurs only during war and only under certain conditions. Transition operations can overlap regional and adaptive operations.

In pursuit of their national security strategy, all four countries find themselves prepared to conduct four basic types of strategic-level courses of action. The four types of operations include:

• Strategic operations use all instruments of power in peace and war to achieve a country’s national security strategy goals through attacks against the enemy’s strategic centers of gravity.
• Regional operations include conventional, force-on-force military operations against overmatched opponents, such as regional adversaries and internal threats.
• Transition operations bridge the gap between regional and adaptive operations and contain some elements of both. The country continues to pursue its regional goals while dealing with developing outside intervention that has the potential to overmatch its military.
• Adaptive operations preserve the country’s power and apply it in adaptive ways against opponents that overmatch the country’s military.

National Security Strategy

Although Donovia, Ariana, Atropia, Gorgas, and Limaria may refer to them as “operations,” each of these courses of action is actually a subcategory of strategy. Each type of operation aggregates the effects of tactical, operational, and strategic actions in conjunction with instruments of national power to achieve each country’s strategic goals. The types of operations employed at a given time will depend on the types of threats, opportunities, and other conditions present.

Each country’s strategy typically starts with actions directed at a regional opponent that the government overmatches in conventional military power, as well as other instruments of power. If possible, each government will attempt to achieve its ends without armed conflict. Accordingly, these governments do not limit strategic operations to military means and usually do not begin with armed conflict. They may achieve the desired goal through pressure applied by nonmilitary instruments of power, perhaps by merely threatening to use superior military power against the opponent. These actions fall under the general framework of “strategic operations." The government may resort to armed conflict to achieve its desired end state when nonmilitary means prove insufficient or not expedient. Strategic operations, however, continue even if a particular regional threat or opportunity causes the country to undertake “regional operations” that may include military means. Prior to the initiation of hostilities and throughout the course of armed conflict with its regional opponent, the government will continue to conduct strategic operations to preclude intervention by outside players, other regional neighbors, or an extra-regional power that could overmatch its forces. Such operations, however, always include branches and sequels to deal with the possibility of intervention by an extra-regional power.

Military Forces Overview

Military Strategy

Atropian military strategy focuses on reclamation of lost territory from Limaria, and the two countries have an ongoing arms race. The Atropian military desires Ariana’s military support to seize such lost territory. To become more of a regional player, Atropia’s military continues to attempt to obtain more technologically-advanced equipment from other countries, primarily Donovia, Israel, and the US. Besides its design on lost territory, the Atropian military remains in mainly a defensive posture as it protects its oil and other key infrastructure.

Army Overview

Atropia maintains an army ground force, primarily composed of tank and mechanized forces and, due to equipment manufactured from technology 10 to 20 years old, the Atropian military fields a tier 2 fighting force. The size of the Atropian military keeps the force in a defensive posture and limits its actions to regional operations. The security of Atropia’s territorial integrity remains its military’s main objective. The Atropian military force intentionally mirrors Limaria’s military structure. Ongoing skirmishes with Limaria over disputed territory drive Atropia’s military doctrine, procurement, and disposition of forces. Donovian doctrine and force structure heavily influence the Atropian army. Lately, the army has enjoyed additional monetary resources due to government profits from hydrocarbon exports.

Army Size and Structure

Atropian Military Forces Disposition

The maneuver brigade serves as the Atropian military’s basic combined arms unit. In the AFS, maneuver brigades with the same structure as those that would usually be organic to a larger base structure (division), are referred to as divisional brigades. The Army, however, organizes many units as separate brigades, designed to possess greater ability to accomplish independent missions without further allocation of forces. Separate brigades possess some subordinate units that contain the same force structure as a divisional brigade of the same type (for example, the headquarters); some units that are especially tailored to the needs of a separate brigade, marked “(Sep)” in the organizational directories; and some that are the same as units of this type usually found at division level, marked “(Div.).” (For more information, see diagram on page 232 and the order of battle (OB) at the end of this country’s variable.)

All five militaries design their maneuver brigades to serve as the basis to form a brigade tactical group (BTG) if necessary. A brigade, separate or as part of a BTG, can fight alone or as part of a larger unit such as a division, division tactical group (DTG), a separate unit in an operational-strategic command (OSC), an organization of the AFS (such as army, corps, or military district), or as part of a field group (FG). (For additional information, see TC 7-100.2, Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 2, Command and Control.)

The brigade serves as the Atropian army’s largest tactical organization. In peacetime, Atropia subordinates its brigades to a larger, operational-level administrative command. The Atropian army component headquarters may retain centralized control of certain elite elements of the ground forces, such as airborne and special purpose forces (SPF) units. This central control permits flexibility in the employment of these relatively scarce assets in response to national-level requirements. For these tactical-level organizations, the organizational directories contain standard table of organization and equipment (TO&E) structures. These administrative groupings normally differ from Atropia’s wartime force structure. (See TC 7-100.2: Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 3, Offense.)

Atropia fields an army of approximately 68,400 personnel divided into two separate mechanized brigades, two tank brigades, and two motorized brigades. The Atropian Army also contains various support and special-purpose elements that include air defense, artillery, engineer, militia, and SPF commands. Recently, the Atropian Army established an information warfare battalion in its reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition (RISTA) command to develop electronic and computer warfare capabilities.

Army Doctrine and Tactics

If attacked, the Atropian Ground Forces will likely seek external assistance from an extra-regional power if the country feels it is inadequate to deal with the threat. For those attacking Atropia, they will attempt to apply the following principles against any regional threat:

• Control access into the region
• Control the tempo
• Cause politically unacceptable casualties to the enemy
• Neutralize technological overmatch

The Atropian Ground Forces’ and other troops’ primary tasks in wartime are to defeat aggression against Atropia and its allies. In order to defeat any opponent seen as a threat to their country, the ground forces use adaptive resistance and pursue objectives designed to force the enemy to cease hostilities on Atropian terms. Pursuit of comprehensive military objectives will bring to bear the full capabilities of the Atropian military across all elements of the operational environment.

At all levels of command, this doctrine provides the basis for Atropian policy against any forces that represent a theoretical threat. Adaptive resistance also includes operations designed to combat drivers of instability such as rogue regimes, non-state terrorist organizations, and various criminal elements. The Atropian Ground Forces pursue an integrated combined arms approach to operations that relies on speed, surprise, and momentum; force and firepower; maneuverability, agility, and minimal footprint; and dynamic coordination carried out across all domains of the battlefield.

Traditionally, the Atropian Ground Forces design themselves to respond to crises through the policy of mass mobility, whereby the government mobilizes its forces to deal with the threat. The brigade remains the main organizational construct for the Atropian Ground Forces.

Advances in new niche technology and conventional firepower technology allow numerically small forces to inflict the same military effects against an opponent as larger forces previously caused. The Atropian Ground Forces attempt to organize the battlefield in such a way that they can rapidly transition between offensive and defensive operations and between linear and nonlinear operations.

The Atropian military will attempt to organize for mission success and use deception to surprise its enemy. It combat organizes its forces and it is common for Atropian forces to shift between performing regular and irregular military operations. At some times, uniformed military forces can best perform the functions while at other times irregular forces may perform the action best. Both types of forces will often act together.

The Atropian Ground Forces’ leadership recognizes the complexity of the modern battlefield. This will often lead to situations where part of the military may operate most effectively in a linear fashion, while other parts may need to conduct nonlinear operations. The Atropian military understands what constitutes a linear or nonlinear battlefield based on general military theory accepted by many countries’ armed forces. Battlefield geometry contains two dimensions: the relationship of units to each other, the enemy, and their support base; and the expected effects of that relationship. (For additional information on tactics, see TC 7-100.2, Opposing Force Tactics.)

Atropia sees offensive operations as the decisive form of combat and the ultimate means of imposing its will on the enemy. While conditions at a particular time or place may require Atropia to defend, defeating an enemy force ultimately requires shifting to the offense. Even within the context of defense, victory normally requires offensive action. Therefore, Atropian commanders at all levels seek to create and exploit opportunities to take offensive action, whenever possible.

The aim of offense at the tactical level is to achieve the tactical mission in support of an operation. A tactical command ensures that its subordinate commands thoroughly understand both the overall goals of the operation and the specific purpose of a particular mission they are about to execute. In this way, subordinate commands may continue to execute the mission without direct control by a higher headquarters, if necessary.

Army Training and Readiness

The Atropian army faces a consistently high turnover rate since it uses conscription to fill its ranks for the active duty force, but the system creates a large civilian population with previous military experience. Most Atropian males must serve for 18 months on active duty, but university graduates only need to serve 12 months. Atropia contains no official reserve force, but over 560,000 civilian Atropians possess military experience from the past 15 years and could serve again, if necessary. Despite the constant turnover in the enlisted ranks, the Atropian army fields a well-trained force with a 94% readiness rate.

Army Equipment and Weapons

The Atropian army primarily uses tier 2 equipment and weapons or modern competitive military systems fielded from the last 10 to 20 years throughout its force structure. Due to the influx of funds from hydrocarbon exports, the Atropian army upgraded some of its systems so it now has some limited tier 1 niche capabilities. The Atropian army has the equipment to operate in all terrain types and can successfully conduct 24-hour operations. (For further information see Section 4: Appendix C or the Worldwide Equipment Guide (WEG): Vol. 1, Chapter 1, OPFOR Tier Tables.)

Naval Forces Overview

Atropian Navy

The Atropian navy patrols the Caspian Sea, its main responsibility, with a small and agile force. The Atropian navy also secures the country’s coastal waterways, conducts anti-smuggling operations, and protects the hydrocarbon infrastructure in the Caspian Sea.

Navy Size and Structure

The Atropian navy maintains its headquarters and operates its main facilities in the Atropian capital, Baku. Recently, the Atropian navy conducted Caspian Sea exercises that indicate it has improved equipment and training to at least a tier 2 rating level. (See the OB at the end of this country’s variable.)

Navy Doctrine and Tactics

Atropia maintains a naval force heavily influenced by Donovian naval doctrine. The navy may engage in hit-and-run tactics if attacked by larger Caspian Sea naval powers. At all times, the Naval Commander will attempt to preserve the capability to defend Baku and the off-shore hydrocarbon fields. Atropian naval missions include:

• Defensive patrolling of coastal areas
• Anti-smuggling operations
• Defensive mine laying
• Insertion/extraction of special operations forces
• Protection of isolated oil rig platforms

The Atropian navy possesses 39 surface craft with no submarines or major surface ships. It operates a variety of attack boats, patrol boats, submarine chasers, minesweepers, and amphibious squadrons. The Atropian navy also fields a small naval special operations forces (SOF) along with harbor salvage and clearance capabilities. (See diagram on previous page for more detail.)

Navy Training and Readiness

Due to its small size and recent purchase of new equipment that reduce the likelihood of many maintenance problems, the Atropian navy operates a well-trained force at an overall 93% operational readiness rate.

Navy Equipment and Weapons

The Atropian navy fields largely tier 2 equipment and weapons with limited tier 1 niche capabilities financed through hydrocarbon resources. Atropian naval equipment focuses on defensive operations, especially the defense of off-shore hydrocarbon infrastructure. Atropia will continue to purchase equipment (like mine countermeasure ships), increase SOF capabilities, and improve its amphibious forces. The Atropian navy can operate in all seas and can successfully conduct 24-hour operations.

Air Force Overview

Atropian Air Force

The Atropian air force is small but could be deadly in a regional conflict and is best suited for defensive operations.

Air Force Size and Structure

The Atropian air force fields an estimated 8,000 personnel that operate approximately 110 fixed wing aircraft and 40 helicopters. The Atropian air force operates from military and civilian airfields all over the country, but the Baku metropolitan area contains the two largest military airports. The Atropian fighter aviation regiment is located in the Rimzi Airbase on the Hachzi peninsula. Smaller fixed wing and rotary wing elements can support ground troops in contested regions from any suitable runway. (See the OB at the end of this country’s variable.)

Air Force Doctrine and Tactics

The Atropian air force’s missions include protection of the country’s borders, troop transport, close air support for ground forces, and protection of key infrastructure such as political and economic targets. Atropian pilots possess a respectable reputation for their flying skills with the ability to conduct deep strikes. Despite the heavy Donovian influence on the Atropian air force doctrine and tactics, the Atropians can adapt to a changed environment. Recent operations and training with Western air forces exposed the Atropians to non-Donovian ideas about flexible and adaptive operations.

Air Force Training and Readiness

Due to its small size and ability to increase its flight hours because of a greater operational budget, the Atropian air force maintains a high level of training and a 94% operational readiness rate.

Air Force Equipment and Weapons

The Atropian air force operates equipment and weapons based on technology from 10 to 20 years ago to create a tier 2 capability rate. The infusion of funds from high hydrocarbon export revenues allowed Atropia to upgrade some air force systems for selected tier 1 niche capabilities. The Atropian air force can conduct 24-hour operations in all weather and over all terrain. (For further information see the OB at the end of this country’s variable and the WEG, Vol. 2: Airspace and Air Defense Systems.)

Government Parliamentary Forces

The Atropian government tasks the Atropian national police, a paramilitary force, with the following missions: basic law enforcement, border control, and maintenance of public order such as riot control. Besides the national police, which operate under the Interior Ministry, additional paramilitary forces work for the Ministry of Public Information. The total number of Atropian paramilitary forces is around 65,000 personnel. In a conflict, the Atropian paramilitary organizations will likely provide presidential security and protect critical infrastructure. The Atropian military will probably use these paramilitary organizations' reserve elements in its national defense plans.

Internal Security Forces

The Atropian Ministry of the Interior controls the Internal Security Forces, composed of the following directorates and their approximate strengths:

• Political (200)
• State Security (5,000)
• General Police (25,000)
• Civil Defense (5,000)
• Border Guards (15,000)
• National Security Forces (11,000)
• Special-Purpose Forces (4,000)
• Intelligence (5,000)

The Border Guards act similarly to a traffic control brigade and normally field tier 3 or tier 4 equipment, primarily cast-offs from other, higher-priority units. The National Security Forces are similar to reconnaissance brigades in both size and structure. The purpose of all these forces is to ensure the survival of the government. In extreme cases, these forces could be used for military missions.

Reserves and Militia

Any individual that retires or separates from the active duty military is assigned to the reserves, which is basically a list of individuals with military experience. Those willing can voluntarily serve in the militia brigade without pay, where they meet one weekend a month. Unit of assignment is based on the individual’s past experience and location to the company or battalion. If money is available, the militia brigade may receive a week or two of paid training once a year. The quality of soldiers assigned to the militia brigade is unknown, as some have not served in the military for over 20 years. The ones that meet voluntarily may be the hotheads that get energized from firing weapons and doing “maneuvers.”

Non-state Paramilitary Forces

Insurgent/Guerrilla Forces

While numerous reasons exist for internal conflict in Atropia, two main reasons stand out above all others—ethnocentrism (separatist movement) and nationalism. This internal strife devolved to irregular warfare as state and non-state actors struggled to gain legitimacy and influence over the populace. Sporadic violence over the last decade targeted government entities and key leaders. Several foreign-supported anti-Atropian insurgent groups operate within Atropian territory. The two dominant groups in the area of operations are Salasyl and the South Atropian Peoples’ Army (SAPA).

Salasyl is one of the largest groups within Atropia, second only in size to SAPA. Its center of gravity is in the southeast portion of the country, but the group is fully capable of conducting operations throughout the country, and in reality does so. It is also reported that the group may have ties to transnational criminal and terrorist actors. The extent and dynamic of the relationship between Salasyl and these transnational actors is unknown at this time. For the last two decades, Salasyl has engaged the current Atropian regime in a low-level insurgency. Salasyl encourages the local populace to violently oppose the legitimate Atropian government due to state taxation policies; lack of reliable public services such as electrical power, sewage treatment, and potable water; substandard preventive medical services; lack of access to state education programs for working class citizens; and a state judicial system that illegally favors the political party currently in control of the government’s executive and legislative branches.

Due to its lack of funding, Salasyl will ambush small police patrols (on foot or in a single vehicle) in order to obtain additional weapons. These attacks will usually only result in the capture of the police officers’ pistols and rifles. In extreme instances, Salasyl will raid a police station in a small town in order to obtain small arms and ammunition.

SAPA, the other major insurgent group, relates culturally to Ariana and wants to create a separate country composed of southern Atropia and Ariana’s northwestern provinces that contain an ethnic Atropian majority. The SAPA feels that the South Atropian People’s Party (SAPP) carries little weight in the Atropian political system, and reforms to assist the local people show few signs of progress. The SAPA, while it operates throughout Atropia, focuses on eight provinces in the south due to cultural ties with Ariana. The SAPA operates in three separate major units—Northern, Central, and Southern Commands. The group conducts most of its training in Ariana, where it receives most of its equipment and supplies. Reports indicate that Arianian SPF or other “advisors” may support the SAPA with logistics and training in the country. The Salasyl insurgents often clash violently with the SAPA over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools.

Two smaller insurgent groups that operate in northern Atropia are the Bilasuvar Freedom Brigade (BFB) and the Provisional Army of Lezgin (PAL). Sunni Muslim religious extremists comprise the recruiting pool for both groups. Donovia supports the BFB, which creates political tension between Donovia and Atropia. While the BFB may sometimes attack Atropian government representatives, it primarily wages an information warfare (INFOWAR) campaign against the ruling government. The PAL lies low for long periods of time before using an improvised explosive device (IED) to damage a building symbolic of the Atropian government, such as a city hall or other municipal facility.

There are two violent extremist organizations based on religion that operate in Atropia. The first is One Right Path (ORP), which is a violent extremist splinter group of about 5,000 active members whose goal is the establishment of a regional Islamic Caliphate. ORP practices a variant of the Shia faith and is aggressively expanding its territorial control by taking key cities and oil reserves in southeastern Atropia. While the group may operate anywhere in the region, the primary area is a quadrilateral from Astara, Atropia, to Yerevan, Limaria, to Tbilisi, Gorgas, to Mamedkala, Donovia, and then back to Astara. ORP wants to overthrow the Atropian government and wants to limit any influence in Atropia by Donovia. While there are rumors of some sort of association with Ariana, there is nothing confirmed by any authority? Ariana does not want to be publicly associated with ORP. The group tends to operate in Atropian cities with support from local Shia and is very organized, with a highly structured chain of command. In cities that have underground passageways, the group will often meet in them or use them to move clandestinely around the city. ORP assassinates Atropian government officials and ambushes small military/police formations that it can easily overcome. The group tends to finance itself by taking control of oil-rich areas and selling the products on the black market. Its weapons tend to come from the black market, stolen from the Atropian military or police, or possibly supplied by Ariana. ORP is a very effective user of modern INFOWAR techniques, including perception management and deception. The group uses the Internet to both finance its cause and to recruit new members. ORP often infiltrates its members over the Arianian/Atropian border in small numbers, usually less than five individuals. They sometimes will link up with other ORP members, but at other times will form their own cell. The cells will operate independently or, in some instances, some of the cells may join together to conduct larger operations.

The second violent extremist splinter group is The True Believers (TTB), a Sunni-based group of about 5,000 members. Its goal is the transformation or elimination of any Muslims of the Shia faith, and eventually a worldwide Islamic Caliphate. TTB believes that slow and steady wins the race and tends to attempt to convert all Muslims to its version of Islam by face-to-face conversations. The group refuses to work with any group that does not believe as it does. TTB is doctrinally opposed to both Atropian and Arianian governments because the majority of the countries’ residents are of the Shia faith. The group only tolerates Donovia because the country is primarily Sunni. TTB does not generally work outside its area of operation, which is basically a quadrilateral from Makhachkala, Donovia, to Balakan, Atropia, to Lankaran, Atropia, to Baku, Atropia, and then back to Makhachkala. The group tends to start in the rural areas, slowly converting others to its variant of Islam and hiding in small villages in northern Atropia or in hideouts in the forested mountains in that part of the country. While TTB may attack Atropian government officials, it also clashes with Shia or other civilian nonbelievers unless they convert to the Sunni faith. TTB is very scattered, with small separate cells operating all over the area, and it may appear that there is not much structure to the group. The group uses primarily small arms, as it suffers from a dearth of heavy weapons. Most of its small arms come from the black market and are tier 3 or 4 at best. TTB seeks to intimidate any of the Shia faith so they will convert, and when the group senses weakness it will take control of a village or area. If that area has oil, TTB will sell it on the black market. There is no open relationship between Donovia and TTB, but there are some politicians in the Donovian government who believe in the aims of the group. Due to working primarily in rural areas, the group seldom uses the Internet in its INFOWAR campaign, but focuses on methods that do not use electronics—such as executions—as a means to get its point across to the other residents.

Other groups and affiliates in Atropia find themselves sympathetic to pro-Western economic initiatives and social-political concepts of state governance. Coalition forces will need to not only determine each domestic group’s agenda, but also discern whether they are criminal organizations, private militia, insurgents, or guerrillas to determine whether the groups will be useful to meet coalition objectives.

At least three forms of armed and unarmed combatants will emerge from these domestic groups if the US or coalition forces deploy to the region. First, factions currently opposed to the Atropian government and not friendly toward the US-led coalition presence will initiate overt resistance. They will initiate violent and nonviolent protests against both the Atropian government and the US-led coalition because they consider the outsiders to be an extension of the current Atropian regime. Second, factions currently against the Atropian governmental policies, but potentially friendly toward the US-led coalition, will support the outside military intervention in hopes that the current Atropian government will fall or at least change its policies toward their group. Third, several extremist anti-Western factions will quickly resort to expanded terrorism if a US-led coalition enters Atropia, as they do not want any Western inference. These anti-Western groups will target US/coalition forces, logistical staging points, and Atropian law enforcement and internal security forces. Foreign entities may influence any of these three domestic factions with money, materiel, or training to elevate civil unrest as long as it helps accomplish the outside group’s long-term goals.

There are other insurgent/guerrilla groups in Atropia beside the ones listed in the threat actors’ orders of battle.

Criminal Organizations

Three Generations of Criminals

Criminal Roles and Functions

Organized crime and its interrelationships in irregular warfare are active throughout the region. Crime is widespread and mostly linked to historical traditions and ancestral allegiances. Distinguishing crime as distinct from ongoing ethnic feuds, ideological and theological extremism, or elements of the society that incite insurgency for particular political expectations is problematic at best. At its worst, this category of violence is enmeshed in the daily lives of most people whether they reside in urban centers or are part of a rural ecosystem.

There are a number of criminal groups in the region that operate as gangs, networks, or transnational criminal organizations, some of which have developed into sophisticated transnational criminal organizations (TCO) with ambitious economic and political agendas. The AOC operates primarily in Baku while the Al Iksir Cartel operates in northern Atropia and southern Donovia. The Bocyowicz Crime Family is a third- generation criminal organization with the ability to control ungoverned territory within nation- states, acquire political power in poorly-governed regions, and eventually vie for geographic controlled space. These political actions are intended to provide security and freedom of movement for the criminal organization’s activities. As a result, the third- generation criminal organization and its leadership challenge the legitimate state authority on exercise of political control and use of criminal violence within a given geographical area.

Criminal organizations such as the Saints of Cognitio (SoC) employ INFOWAR techniques, such as media manipulation and computer warfare, to disrupt state and non-state organizations. While their motivations are predominantly ethical, they are not averse to forming short-term alliances with other irregular actors to raise revenue or to achieve maximum effect.

Other criminal organizations in Atropia include two phony nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The National Social Media Foundation claims to be educational in nature, but its members typically abuse their knowledge of technology by directing it toward antisocial purposes. The Pan-Muslim Relief Society portrays itself as an innocent charitable organization that provides shelter and a safe haven for victims displaced by violence in Lower Janga province. In reality, the society’s members prey on occupants of refugee camps, demanding “dues” and other favors in return for protection against eviction or physical violence.

There are other insurgent/guerrilla groups in Atropia beside the ones listed in the threat actors’ orders of battle.

Private Security

Organizations

Some of the foreign companies that help operate the Atropian oil and gas industry hire private security guards to protect the infrastructure.

Foreign Military Presence

There are no foreign military units in Atropia at present, other than the standard security units at the various embassies in Baku.

Nonmilitary Armed Combatants

The insurgent and guerrilla forces operating in Atropia are openly hostile to US involvement in the region. The criminal organizations are predominantly neutral in their view of the US as long as the criminals’ economic interests are not compromised. For the most part, the private security organizations that protect the Atropian oil and gas infrastructure are predominately neutral to somewhat friendly, since some of them work for foreign companies.

Military Functions

A military function is a group of related tasks, activities, capabilities, operations, processes, and organizations that fulfills the specific military purpose for which these things all exist. When integrated with other such functions, it contributes to the accomplishment of larger missions.

Joint Capabilities

The Atropian military is attempting to improve its joint capabilities between its ground, air, and naval units. The Atropian Armed Forces may act independently or jointly, and will normally engage in regular warfare. If the country is being overrun by an external force, Atropia may resort to irregular warfare or hybrid warfare in conjunction with external forces to defeat the enemy. When conducting hybrid warfare, Atropia’s regular forces will not normally act in concert with irregular forces and/or criminal elements to achieve mutually benefitting effects. The national-level strategy, operational designs, and courses of action of the Atropian military constitute a wide range of capabilities and motives, but less than those of Ariana and Donovia.

Command and Control

The core of Ariana’s, Atropia’s, and Gorgas’ C2 concept remains the assumption that modern communications find themselves susceptible to attack and/or monitoring. Accordingly, the military operates from the view that centralized planning defines the means for assuring both command (establishing the aim) and control (sustaining the aim), leading to strategic and operational directions. Necessarily then, the military relies on the loyalty of its forces and accords far-ranging authority to act within the aim while foregoing rigorous control as both unproductive and unlikely in the modern environment. (See TC 7-100.2: Opposing Force Tactics Chapter 2, Command and Control.)

Arianian, Atropian, and Gorgan military battalions are characterized by headquarters composed of a command section including the commander, deputy commander, and a small staff element. It also includes a staff section with the chief of staff and the remainder of the battalion staff. The battalion staff consists of the operations officer, the assistant operations officer, the intelligence officer, and the resources officer. The signal platoon leader also serves as the battalion communications officer, the reconnaissance platoon leader acts as the chief of reconnaissance, while the materiel support platoon leader serves as the battalion resources officer. (See TC 7-100.2: Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 2, Command and Control.)

The Atropian military designs its tactical C2 with emphasis on survivability through mobility, redundancy, and security. The Atropian military streamlines procedures and uses common procedures at its tactical command posts, unlike its operational level command posts.

Maneuver

The Atropian military has a robust capability to conduct combined arms operations; the basic combined arms unit is the maneuver brigade. In the administrative force structure, Atropian maneuver brigades are organized as separate brigades, designed to have greater ability to accomplish independent missions without further allocation of forces from higher headquarters. (For additional information, see TC 7-100.2, Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 3, Offense; Chapter 4, Defense; and Chapter 5, Battle Drills.)

Air Defense

The Atropian Air Defense Brigade, subordinate to the Supreme High Command, provides air defense coverage for Atropian units. It also supports combined arms combat by the comprehensive integration of a large number and variety of weapons and associated equipment into an effective, redundant air defense system. Employment of this system pursues the basic objectives of air defense by employing certain concepts and principles. This is best accomplished by establishing a modern (tier 2) integrated air defense system (IADS). Air defense weapons and surveillance systems at all levels of command are part of an IADS. This ability provides a continuous, unbroken (usually overlapping) umbrella of air defense coverage and presents a significant threat to any potential enemy air activity.

Atropia recognizes that air defense is an all-arms effort. Thus, all ground units possess some type of an organic air defense capability to differing degrees, depending on the type and size of the unit. The air defense brigade continuously looks for new and adaptive ways of employing not only air defense systems but also systems not traditionally associated with air defense. Many weapons not designed as air defense weapons will also damage and/or destroy tactical aircraft when within range. Throughout maneuver units, there are a number of systems designed for air defense and other systems that can be used in an air defense role. The heavy antiaircraft machineguns on tanks are specifically designed for air defense. Machineguns on armored personnel carriers and automatic cannon on infantry fighting vehicles can engage both ground and air targets. Most antitank guided missiles (ATGMs) are extremely effective against low-flying helicopters. Several ATGM manufacturers offer anti-helicopter missiles and compatible fire control, which are especially effective against low-flying rotary-wing aircraft. Field artillery and small arms can also be integral parts of the air defense scheme. All these weapons can be extremely lethal when used in this role.

Atropia considers every soldier with a man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) to be an air defense firing unit. These weapons are readily available at a relatively low cost and are widely proliferated. Therefore, Atropian ground forces are acquiring as many MANPADS as possible and issuing them in large numbers to a wide variety of units. The military can also disseminate them to selected affiliated forces. The small size and easy portability of these systems provides the opportunity for ambush of enemy airframes operating in any area near Atropian units. Ground units also employ them to set ambushes for enemy helicopters, especially those on routine logistics missions. (For more information, see TC 7-100.2: Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 11, Air Defense.)

INFOWAR

Atropia defines information warfare (INFOWAR) as specifically planned and integrated actions to achieve an information advantage at critical points and times. The goal is to influence an enemy’s decision making cycle through collected and available information, information systems, and information-based processes, while retaining the ability to employ friendly information and information-based processes and systems. Atropia operates a robust INFOWAR capability with an INFOWAR battalion headquartered out of Baku. The Atropians generally operate outdated equipment, the relics purchased from the Donovians years ago. Their computer warfare capability is limited, with no hard evidence of a government-sponsored program. Atropia has an information attack capability, but it pales in comparison to its larger regional neighbors. (For additional information, see TC 7-100.2, Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 7, Information Warfare; TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, Appendix A, Information Warfare; and the Atropia Information Variable).

RISTA

The Atropian military views reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition (RISTA) as the single-most important function for the Atropian military, because it sets the stage for all other military operations. Atropian military forces tend to commit significant resources to RISTA- related operations with aggressive overlapping redundancy in the intelligence disciplines. The table below summarizes the range capabilities of the reconnaissance assets that support Atropia’s tactical commanders.

Effective Ranges of Atropian Reconnaissance Assets

Fire Support

During past conflicts, Atropia’s military has successfully integrated fire support into operations, from close to deep-strike capability. The commanders always seek to increase the effectiveness of air and missile strikes and artillery fire to destroy enemy formations, weapons systems, or key components of an enemy combat system. (See TC 7-100.2: Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 9, Indirect Fire Support.)

Protection

Atropia will attempt to minimize civilian casualties to a large extent. The military has engineering assets to reinforce civilian and military positions. The C2 and fire support systems are sophisticated enough to minimize the threat of “friendly fire” or other accidents. The military and civilian populations are closely integrated, however, making it difficult for invaders to launch attacks without the risk of civilian casualties, which would enrage the population and be used as ammunition for INFOWAR. (See TC 7-100.2: Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 12, Engineer Support and Chapter 7, Information Warfare.)

Logistics

The Atropian military possesses robust logistics capabilities with the ability to support its maneuver units for any length of time. All five countries continue to improve in all aspects of their logistics systems, with Atropia doing so through the influx of funds from hydrocarbon resources. These improvements include an increased emphasis on support zone security and plans to stockpile war materiel throughout each country.

Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear

Should the strategic need arise, Atropia could produce CBRN munitions, weapons, and/or components from its own resources. It has long been suspected, but not proven, that Atropia may possess very limited CBRN munitions. Atropian strategic policy does not support a CBRN first strike. Its contingency plans for the acquisition of CBRN, when needed, are primarily for the defense of Atropia’s sovereignty. In the event of an impending CBRN strike against the Atropian homeland, however, it could decide to use preemptive CBRN strikes. Should any opponent conduct a CBRN attack against Atropia, it may retaliate in kind.

Atropia has a wide variety of CBRN delivery means organic to its military forces. It has surface-to-surface missiles capable of carrying CBRN warheads that are subordinate to the 362nd Artillery Command. The medium-range ballistic missile battalion can reach both regional and theater targets. Most Atropian artillery is capable of delivering chemical munitions, and most systems that are 152 mm or larger are capable of firing nuclear rounds. Additionally, Atropia could use aircraft to deliver a CBRN attack. Trained Atropian SPF may also be used as alternate means of delivering CBRN munitions packages. Atropia is also well-prepared to employ CBRN protection measures—civilian and military—and has chemical defense units organic to all maneuver brigades.

Atropia has a substantial industrial base that produces large quantities of toxic industrial chemicals (TIC), which are chemical substances possessing acute toxicity. An adjunct to chemical weapons is use of TIC, which can easily be exploited as improvised (or converted into) chemical weapons by military and civilians alike. (For a listing of possible high- and moderate-risk TIC possibly available to Atropia see the WEG, Volume I, Chapter 14, Improvised Military Systems.) For additional information on the capabilities, release authority (NCA), and employment of CBRN, see TC 7-100.2: Opposing Force Tactics, Chapter 13, CBRN and Smoke. For specific technical information, delivery means, agents, and effects of CBRN, see the WEG, Volume I, Chapter 11, Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN).

Research & Development Goals

Atropia will continue to purchase its military equipment and arms from outsiders, especially the West. If oil and natural gas prices remain high, however, the Atropian military industrial complex may begin to flourish as government revenues slowly stream into military research and development (R&D). Atropia will likely focus its R&D efforts on INFOWAR or other capabilities that can level the playing field between Atropia and its larger neighbors. This year, Atropia announced goals to begin R&D into its own space program. Details are not known at this time, but it is assessed that Atropia is developing a space program to support economic and commercial interests. However, technologies that are dual-use indicate that these satellites could ultimately assist in military operations.

Special Considerations

Atropia’s military policy focuses on its relationship with Limaria over the province of Lower Janga. Atropia wants to regain the province, but will reluctantly settle for the current status quo. Atropia also wishes to maintain sufficient power to deter military action from Donovia or Ariana, or at least delay its attackers until it can receive Western assistance from the US and its allies. Atropians recognize their inability to sustain a successful defense against Donovia or Ariana. Out of self-interest, Gorgas will most likely support Atropian defense against any foreign attacker.

Summary

Atropia maintains a small but capable military that consist of ground, air, and naval forces. Its size almost mirrors that of the Limarian military except that Atropia maintains naval forces due to its location on the Caspian Sea while Limaria, as a land-locked country, fields no naval forces. Due to its hydrocarbon resources, Atropia is an important country for the Western world and the protection of its oil and gas infrastructure is a prime consideration for any military operation in the Caucasus region. Atropia’s long-simmering antagonism against Limaria remains in the forefront of the Atropian military in all of its operations.