Ariana

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The Islamic Republic of Ariana
Flag
Capital	Tehran
Largest city	Tehran (12 million)
Official languages	58.0% Persian Dialects 26.0% Turkic Dialects 9.0% Kurdish 2.0% Luri 1.0% Baluchi 1.0% Arabic 1.0% Kalarian 2.0% Other
Ethnic groups	51.0% Persian 24.0% Atropian 8.0% Gilaki or Mazandarani 7.0% Kurd 3.0% Arab 2.0% Lur 2.0% Baluch 2.0% Turkmen 1.0% Other
Religion	89.0% Shia Muslim 9.0% Sunni Muslim 2.0% Other
Demonym	Arianian
Government	Theocracy
• Supreme Leader	Ayatollah Mahmood Mekhenei
• President	Ahmad Moudin
Legislature	Unicameral Legislature
Theocracy
Area
• Total	588,764 sq mi (1,524,890 km2)
Population
• July 2016 estimate	8,372,373
• Density	8,372,373/sq mi (3,232,591.3/km2)
GDP	2016 estimate
• Total	$85.77 billion
Time zone	West Africa Time

The Islamic Republic of Ariana, the area’s second-largest and second-strongest nation militarily, possesses massive oil and gas reserves in its southwest region along the Persian Gulf. This area and the Strait of Hormuz comprise key terrain assets for the country. Ariana’s government is aggressive, capable, revolutionary, and intent on spreading its vision of Islamic governance and the establishment of a new Arianian hegemony throughout the region. Ariana mobilizes target populations through politicization of Islam to accomplish its long-term goals.

Political

Main article: Political: Ariana

At the heart of political power in the Islamic Republic of Ariana is the Council of Guardians Revolution. The Revolution considers itself the vanguard of proper Islamic sentiment on the planet, and the heart of a global conversion to its version of Islam. The Revolution has successfully defended itself from both internal and external threats, and remains committed to the export of its vision of theocratic rule.

Military

Main article: Military: Ariana

Ariana has an extensive history of various types of operations, from sponsorship of proxy terrorism  to sustained force-on-force conflict. This history forms the basis for the military leadership mindset. The legacy of changing political boundaries between Ariana and its neighbors over the last century never terminated satisfactorily for the countries’ ethnic groups, familial-clan geographical demographics, or theological divisions.

Economic

Main article: Economic: Ariana

The Caucasus countries that possess hydrocarbon resources will continue to depend on the oil and gas industries to drive their economies, while those that do not possess such resources will attempt  to tie themselves to hydrocarbon-rich nations. Both Ariana and Atropia face geopolitical difficulties in exporting their oil and natural gas. Bordered by adversaries, the Arianians and Atropians must rely on tenuous routes to export their resources. For Gorgas and Limaria, which lack extractive or mature industries, transshipment of hydrocarbon products or providing other services to oil-wealthy countries will be their primary short- to medium-term means to achieve economic development. Donovia continues to recover from a collapse two decades ago that crippled its economy. All nations of the Caucasus have relatively high inefficiency due to corruption, government involvement in the economy, and/or lack of export industry development.

Ariana’s economy has pockets of economic vitality but suffers from governmental legislation and regulation that restrict its growth. Ariana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) consistently improves about 4-6% annually and even reached 7-8% growth in 2007. Much of Ariana’s GDP growth,  however, depends on hydrocarbon revenues that make up the largest sector of the Arianian economy and suffer the whims of international market commodity prices. The Arianian government continues to push for greater market liberalization and reform, but large Arianian special interests are expected to continue blocking economic progressive legislation to prevent any decrease in their power. Additionally, the government plays a significant role in the Arianian economy; its social welfare policies fund various charities and numerous subsidies for commodities ranging from foodstuffs to gasoline.

Ariana’s economy is a series of contrasts. While a population surge reached the labor market over  the last decade, Arianian unemployment continued to decrease over the same period. While trade and finance sanctions create significant foreign investment obstacles, overseas trade—especially  with East Asian countries—continues to grow as Asia desires raw hydrocarbon resources and Ariana seeks finished consumer goods. Although Ariana’s industrial sector continues as one of the region’s strongest, its factories suffer from international sanctions on the parts and technology needed to update its hardware and techniques.

President Ahmad Moudin’s financial policies support his populist agenda, including an expansionary fiscal policy. Moudin continues to support massive subsidies for the populace; energy subsidies alone account for approximately 12% of Ariana’s GDP. The People’s Wealth Fund (PWF), which uses oil revenue proceeds as a hedge against the volatile price fluctuations on the international petroleum market, supports oil subsidies to the Arianian people. The high oil prices of the last decade filled the PWF coffers with enough revenue to pursue Moudin’s populist policies, like fuel subsidies, and possibly provided funds to continue Ariana’s investment in nuclear technology.

As a result of Ariana’s successful nuclear weapons program, the US Treasury enacted sanctions against Ariana that hamper its international and domestic economic systems and promote policy changes. In addition, the US hopes the sanctions will deter Ariana from providing financial support to Middle East terrorists.

Social

Main article: Social: Ariana

Ariana enjoys an ancient heritage and rich culture. Ariana possesses a well-documented reputation as the center of knowledge, art, poetry, and mathematics in the region that dates back thousands of years. Most Arianians are proud of their nation and consider themselves Arianians and/or Persians, dependent on their ethnic group.

Over the last few years, radical Arianian power brokers with extremist world views have provided sanctuary to international terrorists. Ariana also sponsored the proxy wars of the Shia Internationalist Brigades and the Martyr’s Army versus Israel, as well as training and/or supplying Arianian Shia insurgent groups such as local Shia Internationalist Brigades. Ariana continues to threaten Israel, the US, and their allies with its domestically popular and successful nuclear  weapons program.

Since President Ahmad Moudin took power in 2003, his continual references to the 12th Imam’s imminent return and the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate stir the Shia faithful to action.   The rhetoric also diverts increasing social discontent to a common foreign enemy—the US and its infidel allies, such as Israel and Egypt. As long as religious zealots control the government, it remains likely that Ariana and the US will never become allies in the Caucasus region.

Social discontent and civil unrest continue to rise in Ariana. Tens of thousands of people protested the last election (August 2009), in which Moudin received the most votes in what many observers perceived as a rigged election. The perception by many Arianian citizens of deeply ingrained government corruption, skewed wealth distribution, high inflation, and high unemployment rates continue to drive this discontent and unrest. Protests, to include student organized protests, persist even to date in Tehran.

Regardless of these problems, the Arianian populace still enjoys a higher living standard than many regional neighbors. Ariana is not a poor nation. The Arianian poor generally earn more than $2 per day, the United Nations (UN) poverty standard. The government, however, states that only 18% of its citizens live below the poverty line. The Arianian people’s discontent may eventually lead to minor governmental changes but likely will not result in any fundamental changes to the Arianian political situation.

Most citizens enjoy clean water and electricity, most attend primary and secondary schools, and most urban citizens have access to phone services. Literacy rates remain very high in Ariana (77%), and over 80% complete high school. Each year, over one million high school graduates apply for entrance into Arianian universities. The more educated the Arianian public becomes, however, the more likely that they will speak out against the theocracy.

Information

Main article: Information: Ariana

Ariana is a repressive information environment, with the government controlling all important information environment elements. Ariana is one of the most sophisticated nations in the world at information control, utilizing advanced capabilities to monitor and direct communications. Despite this, the fragmented Arianian opposition uses the Internet extensively, though its ultimate effect on the political environment is mixed at best. Ariana’s INFOWAR capability is generally good, with pockets of excellence in a variety of disciplines.

Infrastructure

Main article: Infrastructure: Ariana

While the region’s five countries have a significant number of rural residents, the majority of each country’s population lives in urban areas. About two-thirds of the Arianian (68%), Donovian (67%), and Limarian populace (64%) and just over half of the Gorgan (53%) and Atropian (52%) populace  live in urban areas. All five countries contain a mixture of modern urban cities and almost pre- modern rural villages. Modern utilities can be found in most major cities but not in the rural villages and countryside.

The Arianian infrastructure resembles a patchwork quilt with a mixture of modernization and obsolescence. While previous Arianian leaders made substantial investments, the infrastructure now faces significant challenges from the stresses of both war and peace. While rail, road, air, and seaports are marginally adequate, the natural gas and oil infrastructure suffers from archaic construction. Environmental and population pressures on aquifers, along with considerable pollution levels, create significant stress on water and other natural resources. Over 40% of Ariana’s more than 77 million people reside in its 18 largest cities, all of which have at least 350,000 residents.

Physical Environment

Main article: Physical Environment: Ariana

Over 200,000 square miles comprise the Caucasus, a mountainous region located between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. The Caucasus includes Atropia, Gorgas, and Limaria, as well as parts of Ariana and Donovia. The Caucasus Mountains, consisting of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus ranges, traditionally form the separation between Europe and Asia. The Caucasus region contains two major parts—the North Caucasus and the South Caucasus—that are divided by the Greater Caucasus Mountains. The North Caucasus region is contained entirely within Donovia, while the South Caucasus contains Atropia, Gorgas, Limaria, and part of Ariana.

Time

Main article: Time: Ariana

The Caucasus countries, for the most part, do not believe in the sensitivity of time, and do not view punctuality or the importance of time as the US and most other Western countries do. Most of the people in the region do not view time as a resource and do not feel any compulsion to effectively manage their time. The people in the Caucasus region do not make the connection between effective use of their time and production. This lack of time consciousness will likely frustrate US soldiers as they work with their allies, but it will also give the US a battlefield advantage against its enemies.

Threat Actor Chart

Threat Actor	Organization Type	OE	Activities	Targets
Salasyl	Insurgent	Southeast Atropia with nation-wide capabilities	Possible ties to transnational criminal and terrorist actors. Has engaged the Atropian regime in a low-level insurgency for the past 20 years. Promotes violent populace opposition to state taxation policies, unreliable public services, substandard medical preventive services, inaccessible state education programs for working class citizens, and a judicial system that illegally favors the ruling political party. Salasyl and South Atropian People's Army (SAPA) insurgents often clash violently over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
South Atropian People's Army (SAPA)	Insurgent	Focuses on eight provinces in the south with cultural ties to Ariana	Primary goal is to create a separate country composed of southern Atropia and Ariana's northwestern provinces. Receives most of its training, equipment, and supplies from Ariana. SAPA and Salasyl insurgents often clash violently over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
Bilasuvar Freedom Brigade (BFB)	Insurgent	Northern Vetlia and Erdabil Provinces	Donovia supports the BFB, creating political tension between Donovia and Atropia.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
Provisional Army of Lezgin (PAL)	Insurgent	Southern Erdabil and Western Sirvaki Provinces	Small insurgent group with limited regional activities.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
Bocyowicz Crime Family	Criminal	Ungoverned Territories	Acquires political power in poorly-governed regions, eventually gaining control of geographic space. These political actions are intended to provide security and freedom of movement for the criminal organization's activities. As a result, the third-generation criminal organization and its leadership challenge the legitimate state authority.	Atropian police and security forces
Atropian Organized Crime (AOC)	Criminal	Baku	The growth of illegal narcotics, smuggling, and even human trafficking conducted outside of established channels only began recently. Many of those involved in Atropian illegal activities live in communities of displaced Atropians from Lower Janga and persons who fled Donovia. Atropia serves as a transit point for narcotics travelling to Donovia and Western countries.	Police and security forces
Al Iksir Cartel	Criminal	Northern Atropia and Southern Donovia	The growth of illegal narcotics, smuggling, and even human trafficking conducted outside of established channels only began recently. Many of those involved in Atropian illegal activities live in communities of displaced Atropians from Lower Janga and persons who fled Donovia. Atropia serves as a transit point for narcotics travelling to Donovia and Western countries.	Police and security forces