Political: Atropia

Atropia is a neutral, Western-leaning dictatorship centered on the Ismailov family. While not a broadly democratic state, Atropia is secularized, and the population enjoys a high standard of living by regional standards due to oil revenue. Government repression is limited, although some degree of censorship exists. Corruption is extensive and creates a reformist desire in the population who, while accepting of the Ismailov family dominance, would like greater freedom of expression and less official corruption.

Centers of Political Power

The Ismailov family controls modern Atropia and exercises political power based on a network of political, economic, judicial, and social associations that frequently involve organized crime. Corruption remains common and permeates the entire Atropian society. Although institutional processes exist, Atropians often circumvent the system to reach deals that reap better benefits for themselves. Many power bases depend on one’s region, economic livelihood, social associations, etc., and operate in a symbiotic relationship with other power structures, legal or otherwise. Atropian politics function through a decentralized structure, but a few exceptional points do exist. One of the most important associations on the national stage centers on the Ismailov family with its connections in political, economic, social, and most other important facets of Atropian life.

Military Authority

The Ismailov family closely controls the army, Atropia’s primary military force.

File:Flag Atropia.png

Flag of Atropia

Along with the defense of the country’s borders, the military possesses the mission to support the government’s desire to re- establish Atropian territorial integrity over territories lost to ethnic Limarian separatists in Lower Janga. The Atropian Air Force and the Air Defense Force are subordinate to the ground forces. The Navy protects Atropia’s territorial waters in the Caspian Sea, often violated in the past by Arianian military vessels and oil exploration related survey ships.

Family Authority

The Ismailov family continues as the center of power in Atropia, headed by the current president, Salam Ismailov. Salam’s father, Hazi Ismailov, the deceased patriarch of the family, established the powerbase that continues Salam’s current control of Atropia. Hazi created the modern Atropian state and solidified his position with the support primarily of Atropian intelligence agencies, which passed their loyalty to his son on Hazi Ismailov’s death.

Religious/Clerical Authority

Although Atropia is predominately Shia Muslim, the country practices a more secular, less radicalized version than Ariana. Shia Islam in Atropia does not possess the political influence it does in Ariana or other Middle Eastern nations. While religious figures have been part of reformist demonstrations, the Atropian government maintains veto power on the selection of Shia Muslim religious leaders allowed to publically preach in Atropia.

Attitudes Toward the US

Despite disfavor with Atropia’s domestic policies and actions, the US generally favors Atropia as a counterbalance to Arianian and Donovian influence in the Caspian Sea region and as the largest export market for its petroleum resources. In April 2006, Salam Ismailov met President George W. Bush in an official state visit in which Bush hailed the strong relations with Atropia, a recognition of the strategic position Atropia gives the US in the region. Atropian troops continue to deploy in support of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Atropia also grants extensive freedom for US forces to use Atropian military facilities for multiple purposes to include logistics and flight routes. Atropia welcomes the growth of investment in its industries, especially hydrocarbon, and seeks to use its newfound economic clout to create an identity as an independent regional power.

Attitude Toward US Trade

Atropia currently welcomes and encourages US trade. Donovia and Ariana exert much influence on the Caucasus economic system and may affect the future of US trade in the region, especially in the hydrocarbon industry. Atropia views access to Western markets for its oil as its most important trade and political objective.

Type of Government

The Republic of Atropia bases its government upon a 1995 constitution that articulates a republican form of government with three independent branches—the legislative, the judicial, and the executive. The Atropian constitution created a strong presidential system with a subordinate prime minister and a unicameral legislature. In theory, the branches balance each other’s power like in the US. In reality, however, the president functions as the most powerful entity and controls the country’s operations and policies. The judiciary and legislature do not possess the necessary power to seriously check the executive branch.

Under the guidance of Salam Ismailov’s Republican Party of Democracy (RPD), Atropia functions effectively as a one-party state. Although the constitution creates a multi-party state, the RPD dominates political life. Opposition party representation in the parliament amounts to less than 10% of the assembly.

Branches of Government

Legislative Authority

Atropians elect a unicameral legislature of 125 members through direct voting based on districts. Each district elects one member. Each member serves a two-year term, with a limit of four consecutive terms in office. Prior to the 2005 elections, the assembly contained members directly elected via their district and a popular party vote. A 2002 constitutional amendment altered the arrangement to provide for only direct election based on districts, but kept the same total number of representatives.

Executive Authority

The executive branch functions as the center of Atropian government and wields effective control over both the legislative and judicial branches. The Atropian president, elected by popular vote, serves a six-year term. Subsequent to the constitutional reform in 2009, the president may now serve more than two terms, the previous limit. The Atropian president appoints a prime minister and cabinet ministers who require the approval of parliament. Additionally, the president also serves as commander in chief of the Atropian armed forces.

Judicial Authority

Nominally independent of the legislative and executive branch, the president heavily influences the Atropian judicial branch. The Atropian president appoints members of the Constitutional Court and Supreme Court, who are confirmed by parliamentary assent. Due to near-total control of the parliament by the president’s ruling party, however, the legislative branch rubber-stamps Ismailov’s choices. The Atropian constitution stipulates no requirement for parliamentary approval for lower courts, and the president possesses the freedom to make those appointments as he desires. In addition, the Atropian government controls the appointments of prosecutors at the local, regional, and national levels.

Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy

Atropia demonstrates a mixed record when it comes to its legitimacy. Internationally, no country questions the legitimacy of Atropia’s territorial sovereignty except for its dispute with Limaria over Lower Janga. The largest international issue involves Atropia’s attempt to establish itself as a state free of interference from its much more powerful neighbors, Donovia and Ariana, and to create its own independent identity in the international realm. Many international organizations, however, continue to criticize Atropia’s shortfalls in the adherence of the government to the rule of law and the protection of its citizens’ civil liberties.

Domestic Political Issues

Elections

Nearly all countries in the Caucasus possess a history of suspicious election practices followed by popular uprisings that meet varying degrees of success. From the peaceful revolutions in Gorgas, riots in Atropia, assassinations of political rivals in Limaria, to widespread crackdowns and the “disappearance” of opponents in Ariana, observers always consider elections a potential flashpoint. Elections occur every two years for legislative positions, while presidential elections occur every six years. There is a four consecutive term limit for parliament seats, but no such limitations on executive positions.

Rule of Law

Due to the relative youth of the respective judicial branches in the Caucasus, powerful people still overshadow the rule of law, as many governmental leaders do whatever keeps them rich and powerful. Corruption of law enforcement personnel pervades the region, as loyalties apply more to individuals or groups of people as opposed to something as ethereal as a constitution.

Corruption

What Western eyes perceive as corruption is in reality a carefully-cultivated survival mechanism born of decades under dictatorial rule. In an environment where the government encouraged family members to betray their relatives for small benefits, the people consider relationships as a resource while they avoid interaction with the state at all costs. Thus, a high level of official corruption exists in Atropia. Most official acts and access to government services require the payment of some level of bribe. Corruption is the single-largest threat to government legitimacy in Atropia.

International Relationships

Regional Actors

Atropia finds itself in minor but active hostilities with Limaria, with regular sniping and small-scale skirmishes along the Lower Janga contact line. Atropians remain wary of Arianian pressure in the Caspian Sea and will strongly react to the perception of any country that condones the Limarian occupation of Lower Janga. Significant tension exists between Ariana and Atropia despite a shared religion and history. The shared Atropian population (Ariana’s largest minority) does not provide for channels of goodwill, but suspicion, despite the significant integration of Atropians into Arianian society. Atropia and Gorgas are partners due to the requirement of Atropian oil to transit Gorgan pipelines to reach international markets.

Donovia’s support for Limaria in the Lower Janga conflict and its aid to the enclave exemplifies the division between Donovia and Atropia. Donovian-sourced support for militants, particularly the Bilasuvar Freedom Brigade (BFB) operating in northern Vetlia and Erdabil provinces of Atropia, has also created significant tension in the bilateral relationship. Despite these considerations and the mutual distrust between them, strong economic considerations—mainly related to trade—tie the two countries together.

International Organizations

Atropia is active in a number of international organizations, including the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OCSE), NATO (though not as a full member) and a variety of UN-sponsored regional, functional, and international forums. Atropia generally uses diplomacy as its prime international activity, and is strongly supportive of diplomatic solutions. Roughly 30 major Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and International Organizations operate within Atropia. The NGOs include extensive activities of the Georgia A. Smith Human Development Trust regarding rural poverty and literacy programs. International Organizations like United Nations Development Program, World Bank and various EU-sponsored programs are also active in both urban and rural settings.

International Economic Associations

Atropia is a member of numerous trade and economic development institutions. While a comparatively wealthy nation due to petroleum reserves, economic development and the requirement to integrate large populations of IDPs from regional conflict have strained Atropian government reserves. Atropia is most notably not a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and does not follow the pricing and output directives of that organization.

Military Alliances

Atropia receives a “soft power” approach, probably due to its 100 military protocols signed with Kalaria and, thereby, NATO connections. Through its additional direct NATO training and deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan in support of US operations, Atropia hopes to maintain warm relations with the West without angering its regional neighbors. Atropia also maintains bilateral relations with Gorgas, Israel, and other non-NATO nations.

Influential Political Groups

Official Political Parties

Personalities determine political parties in Atropia. While strong party structure exists in the country, an Atropian citizen pledges his allegiance based on the party leaders. While Atropia supports a multi-party system with 42 registered parties, the system is dominated by a few main parties that do not base their appeal upon a single issue. Since Hazi Ismailov’s election as president, the RPD (Republican Party of Democracy) has dominated national politics. Through legal and somewhat nefarious means, the RPD controls parliament with a sizeable majority. Access to many jobs requires membership in the RPD. Since the government controls a large share of jobs, many Atropians owe their livelihood to RPD membership. Hazi’s son, Salam Ismailov, succeeded his father as president of Atropia through Hazi’s direct guidance to the party. For international observers, it appears that recent Atropian elections contain indications of more transparency and fairness. Despite this movement to more open elections, the RPD continues to control Atropian politics. The South Atropian People’s Party (SAPP), on the other hand, has little real power according to the South Atropian People’s Army (SAPA), an insurgent group whose goal is to create a separate country composed primarily of ethnic Atropians located in southern and central Atropia and Ariana’s northwestern provinces.

Other Domestic Influential Groups

Due to the country’s relatively pure ethnic composition, Atropian domestic groups distinguish themselves mainly through ideologies and personalities. The differences between these groups center more on the pursuit of domestic power than significant shifts in governmental policy. The only group that begins to pose a significant threat to the nation on violent terms is the SAPA, which remains somewhat isolated. Other insurgent activity present in Atropia is focused around the BFB in Vetlia and Erdabil provinces, and Provisional Army of Lezgin (PAL) operations in southern Erdabil and western Sirvaki provinces.

Summary

The Ismailov family will continue to attempt to maintain its position of dominance and the independence of a secular Atropia. The South Atropian People’s Army and a culture of corruption will continue to be the greatest internal threats, as political backlash against the corruption will undermine the Ismailov’s best tool for securing the loyalty of various elements of society and government to fight the SAPA. Internationally, Atropia will continue to face Arianian pressure, especially if Atropia maintains independent oil and gas pricing and export policies.