Political: Donovia-West

Political Overview 

Government	Democratic Federation
Constitution	Republican Constitution
Branches	Executive Branch
	Legislative Branch
	Judicial Branch
Party Politics	Multi-Party System (nominally)
Capital City	Moscow

United Republics of Donovia is nominally a republic, but in reality operates as an authoritarian state. Despite outward moves toward democracy, the small political/economic elite maintain power through control of the dominant political party, the Unionist Democratic Party (UDP). The UDP, in turn, dominates the political and economic landscapes. Despite a tumultuous past, the Donovian political structure is generally stable. The UDP arose from the aftermath of the Four Traitors incident two decades ago, with a mandate to clean up the corruption within Donovia that had devastated the nation and ended nearly 70 continuous years of Donovian power and development. While the UDP has managed to create economic stability and increase national prestige through assertive military and diplomatic maneuvering, it has done so through the centralization of state political control. Despite the creation of a strong central authority, Donovia strives to retain a veneer of democracy and a free market economy. While corruption within the government has long been tolerated, the population’s willingness to overlook abuses of power is tied to their economic outlook.

The latest Donovian National Security Strategy identifies national security, political stability, and social stability as key priorities. This includes raising the living standard, preserving and developing culture, strengthening the economy, and improving Donovia’s status as a leading world power.

These national interests are to be achieved through commitment to eight strategic national priorities:

National Defense	State & Economic Security
Strategic Stability and Partnerships	Economic Growth
Science, Technology & Education	Cultural Development
Ecology of Living Systems & Rational Use of Natural Resources	Healthcare

 Donovia has maintained its position as a regional influencer despite its relative material weakness, through its superior use of information as a tool of asymmetric statecraft. Donovian leaders consider information operations to be a decisive tool of state power and are constantly competing in domestic and international spheres for control of the information environment. These coordinated efforts, using state and non-state entities to project influence through the spread of both information and disinformation, make Donovian foreign policy unique. Donovia uses coordinated diplomatic, military, and economic efforts as a means to an end, often acting without concern for ideological frameworks or preferences. Donovian leaders and foreign policy makers often selectively ignore factual information, and produce “truths” that can be easily broadcast to targeted audiences in order to achieve strategic objectives.

The Donovian National Security Strategy identifies foreign nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), popular social movements “color revolutions” (e.g., the color revolutions in Georgia, Pirtuni, and Kyrgyzstan), and the nefarious use of social media to undermine political and social stability as threats to both state and public security. Donovian officials view these threats as emanating from Western powers who seek to provoke regime change in Donovia. Donovians believe that social unrest is often the result of Western interventions using hybrid warfare. Donovian statecraft is unique in that influence is not about attracting or persuading others to agree with their perspective, but rather, it is centered on using distraction and manipulation to undermine the appeal of their adversaries.

Donovian leadership view internal political stability as a critical component of national strength and projecting power abroad.

Centers of Political Power

Donovia is an oligarchy, with power being held by a small group of elites. These elites embrace nepotism, distributing political power in a self-dealing fashion, ensuring the success of economic allies, and using the proceeds of economic dealings to reinforce their political position through patronage and corruption. The network of powerful elites arose from across the law enforcement, military, and intelligence communities that had coalesced in order to contain the economic and social fallout caused by the Four Traitors incident. Donovia’s political elite conduct extensive, continuous, and successful domestic information operations. They actively prepare and fortify their citizens for a conflict, embracing a narrative of being under constant threat from outsiders. The majority of citizens in western Donovia support the country’s foreign policy, especially with regard to the U.S. and NATO. This is reinforced by identity-based narrative themes concerning Pan-Slavic and Donovian nationalism.

As a means of maintaining political control, the UDP has taken steps to neutralize political opposition through the expansion of laws that impose harsh sentences, aiming to discourage public protests and encourage self-censorship. It has also restructured its internal security forces to ensure a more loyal and responsive apparatus. Donovia’s domestic security forces perform a broad range of functions that are not subordinate to the military.

Donovian Domestic Security Forces

Ministry/Agency	Mission	Personnel (nationwide)
National Guard	Regime and internal security, federal law enforcement	340,000
Ministry of Internal Affairs (MoIA)	Civil policing and local law enforcement	904,800
Federal Security Services (FSS) Border Troops	Border security: ground and maritime	170,000
Ministry of Justice (MoJ)	Civil judicial system, prison guarding	32,000
Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM)	Civil defense, disaster response, humanitarian relief, firefighting	289,000
Federal Protection Service (FPS)	Presidential, VIP, and regime protection	20,000

Military Authority

The political leadership is closely aligned with the military, capitalizing on the military’s national pride and sense of professionalism. Despite this relationship, the UDP is wary of the military, as it is likely the only domestic organization capable of ousting the current civilian leadership. The recognition of this potential threat has led to efforts to corrupt influential elements of the military, using promises of money, weapons outlays, and post-military civilian employment as lures to ensure continued loyalty. This has resulted in the buildup of land, maritime, air, and missile forces Donovia. Despite these efforts by the political elite, the military continues to wield significant political power and has the potential to unilaterally assert its will during instances of foreign interference (real or perceived).

Family Authority

The importance of the role of family has acted as an important buffer against much of the societal upheaval that has occurred in Donovia. Systematic discrimination and persecution within Donovia has caused minority groups to rely heavily on their immediate and extended families for social and economic support. The loss of national trust and ensuing economic crisis caused by the Four Traitors incident led many Donovians, especially the Orthodox community, to prioritize trusted family relationships at the expense of societal relationships.

Donovian society has traditionally been organized in a patriarchal manner. While rural and ethnically homogenous communities still maintain traditional family and social roles, the continued rise in urbanization has begun to evolve how younger generations view authority. 

Attitude toward the U.S. and NATO

“The Americans prefer to follow the rule of the strongest rather than following international law. They are convinced that they have been chosen, that they are exceptional, that they are allowed to shape the destiny of the world, and that it is only them who can be right. They act as they please. Here and there they use force against sovereign states, set up coalitions in accordance with the principle: who is not with us is against us.” 

-President of Donovia, Address to the Nation.

Donovia views the United States and its NATO partners as the principle international threat to Donovian security, its geo-political ambitions. The latest Donovian National Security Strategy accuses the West of pursuing a deliberate policy of containment against Donovia in order to sustain western domination of the post-Cold War international order and deprive Donovians of their rightful place on the world stage. The security strategy also cites the buildup of NATO military capabilities near the Donovian border, in particular the deployment of U.S. missile defense capabilities in Europe, and the ongoing U.S. pursuit and proliferation of strategic non-nuclear precision weapon systems, as a serious threat to Donovian security.

Donovia also has a deep and abiding distrust of U.S. efforts to spread western democracy and values upon the rest of the world. The Donovian political elite worry that U.S. attempts to shape international norms will threaten its foundations of power by enabling foreign meddling into Donovia’s domestic affairs. Donovian leadership blame capitalism and the myth of the American Dream for causing domestic economic discontent. Some of their leaders have gone as far as claiming that the internet is a nefarious CIA project intended to undermine Donovia.

The national leadership of Donovia are convinced the United States is laying the groundwork for regime change in Donovia, a conviction further reinforced by the events in Pirtuni. Donovia perceives the United States as the critical driver behind its tensions with Pirtuni. It also sees the U.S.-backed regime change efforts of the past (Arab Spring, Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, and the “color revolutions”) as evidence of potential future actions focused on Donovia.

Donovia wishes to rebalance world power, and counter U.S. influence in Europe and the Middle East. This includes the reassertion of Donovian influence and control over former Warsaw pact members that aligned with NATO. In order to expand its influence and solidify its international standing without provoking a war it cannot win, Donovia competes with the U.S. and NATO by using competitive means that fall below the threshold of conflict. 

Attitude toward U.S. Trade

Donovia generally views U.S. trade positively, as the trade relationship may serve as a means to generate leverage over the U.S. in other matters. Donovia maintains a trade policy with goals that are closely aligned with political and diplomatic efforts. For Donovia, trade is a tool through which it can advance economic and political interests.

Type of Government

Donovia’s Constitution states that it is a Democratic Federation with a Republican form of government that recognizes the multinational character of the State. The current Constitution is the fourth that has been adopted since 1993.

The Constitution’s three foundational Articles are:

Article 1. Democracy and separation of power. The Constitution provides for a democratic form of government, but that is not the case in practice. Article 1 clearly delineates the powers of each branch. While the president can dissolve the legislature, the legislature may also impeach the President. Laws passed by the Legislature can be challenged in the Constitutional Court.

Article 2. Recognition of civic and political rights. Article 2 enforces the rights and freedoms of man and citizens. These are covered in detail in Articles 17 through 64.

Article 3. Federal structure and local government. The Donovian government, on paper, is constructed in a way familiar to Western observers. According to the Constitution, the Donovia is divided into 85 federal subjects (constituent units). There are 22 republics (each with its own Constitution), nine krais, 46 oblasts, three Federal cities, one Jewish autonomous oblast, and four okrugs. These federal subjects are grouped into districts, such as western Donovia. Most of the republics represent areas of non-Donovian ethnicity, although there are several republics with Donovian majority. The indigenous ethnic group of a republic that gives it its name is referred to as the "titular nationality". Due to decades (in some cases centuries) of internal migration inside Donovia, each nationality is not necessarily a majority of a republic's population.

Overall, the Donovian government operates in a highly centralized manner, with little in terms of legislative oversight, regulating bodies, or local governance that would be familiar to Western observers. Even at the most localized levels, bureaucrats and officials are federal appointees who are not required to be from the areas they are assigned to serve. The extension of the central government into local politics ensures that governance occurs in a top-down manner and undercuts the ability of independent and localized elements of political power to form.

The executive branch is led by a popularly elected president, who in turn appoints the judiciary. The bicameral legislature possesses the right to review judiciary appointments, and maintains the power of the purse to determine and approve government spending. In reality, the Donovian government’s representative template set forth by the Constitution serves as a public façade for a greatly incestuous single-party state. 

Branches of Government

Legislative Authority

Donovia maintains a bicameral Legislature with an Upper House consisting of 150 deputies, and a Lower House of consisting of 300 deputies. Elections for both houses occur every four years, with direct proportional representation. In the event of ties, the president controls the tie-breaking vote. Though legislative power is encoded in the Constitution, in practice the legislative body lacks independence due to the fact that almost all deputies are party loyalists or functionaries. The few independent legislators possess almost no legislative power, lacking the ability to propose or block legislation or to investigate government malfeasance.

Both Houses are in reality "rubber-stamp" legislative bodies, which meet for only one week per quarter. The constitution directs that the two Houses meet separately in sessions open to the public, although joint meetings are held for important speeches by the president or foreign dignitaries. Deputies of the Legislature work full-time on their legislative duties and they are not allowed to serve simultaneously in local legislatures or hold other government positions.

Elections for the Legislative Houses occurred two years ago, with the next elections scheduled for two years from now.

Each house elects a chairman to control the internal procedures of the house. The Houses also form committees and commissions to deal with particular types of issues, which are overseen by the fulltime Deputies. These committees and commissions have significant responsibilities in devising legislation and conducting oversight. They prepare and evaluate draft laws, report on draft laws to their Houses, conduct hearings, and oversee implementation of the laws. There are twenty-eight committees and several ad hoc commissions in the Legislature. Committee positions are allocated when new parliaments are seated.

Legislative Process. Draft laws may originate in either legislative chamber or be submitted by the president, the relevant ministries, local legislatures, or the Supreme Court. Draft laws are first considered in the Lower House. Upon adoption by a majority of the membership, a draft law is forwarded to the Upper House for consideration at its next meeting. Conciliation commissions are the prescribed procedure to work out differences in bills considered by both chambers.

A constitutional provision dictating that draft laws dealing with revenues and expenditures may be considered "only when the Government's findings are known" substantially limits the Legislature’s control of state finances. However, the legislature may alter finance legislation submitted by other branches at a later time, a power that provides a degree of traditional legislative control over the purse. The two chambers of the legislature also have the power to override a presidential veto of legislation (although this has never happened). The constitution requires at least a two-thirds vote of the total number of members of both Houses.

Executive Authority

The constitution and political practice of Donovia ensures an almost dictatorial level of power for the executive branch. Presidents are limited to two consecutive terms of six years, but after a six-year hiatus, a former president can run for reelection again. The president is usually a member or trusted agent of the Donovian elite, and can be absolutely guaranteed to defend the elite’s interests. The president possesses the ability to appoint officials at local and republic levels, guaranteeing large numbers of patronage positions and the overall loyalty of the bulk of the Donovian government. The current president is four years into his first six-year term. The next presidential election is scheduled for two years from now.

Dissident Donovian sources report the size of the presidential apparatus (both official and unofficial roles) in Moscow and other localities at more than 75,000 people. Most of them are employees of state-owned enterprises directly under presidential control. There are six administrative departments which deal with citizens' rights, domestic and foreign policy, state and legal matters, personnel, analysis, and oversight. There is also a presidential advisory group with input on the economy, national security, and other matters.

The president also has extensive powers over military policy. He approves defense doctrine, appoints and removes the high command of the armed forces, and confers higher military ranks and awards. The president is empowered to declare national or regional states of martial law, as well as state of emergency. In both cases, both legislative Houses must be notified immediately. The Upper House, has the power to confirm or reject such a decree. The regime of martial law is defined by federal law "On Martial law", signed into law in 2002. The circumstances and procedures for the president to declare a state of emergency are more specifically outlined in federal law than in the Constitution. In practice, the Constitutional Court ruled in 1995 that the president has wide leeway in responding to crises within Donovia.

Other presidential support services include the Central Directorate (in charge of investigating official corruption), the Administrative Directorate, the Presidential Press Activity, and Protocol. The Administrative Directorate controls state mansions, sanatoriums, automobiles, office buildings, and other perquisites of high office for the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government, a function that includes management of more than 200 state industries with about 50,000 employees. The Committee on Operational Questions is a "government within a government". Also attached to the presidency are more than two dozen consultative commissions and extra-budgetary "funds".

Presidential Elections

The Constitution sets few requirements for presidential elections, deferring in many matters to other provisions established by law. The presidential term is set at six years, and the president may only serve two consecutive terms. A candidate for president must be a citizen of Donovia, at least 35 years of age, and a resident of the country for at least ten years. If a president becomes unable to continue in office because of health problems, resignation, impeachment, or death, a presidential election is to be held not more than three months later. In such a situation, the Upper House is empowered to set the election date. Federal law requires at least 50% of eligible voters participate in order for a presidential election to be valid.

Executive Cabinet

The Donovian Government contains 24 executive ministries that execute credit and monetary policies and defense, foreign policy, and state security functions; ensure the rule of law and respect for human and civil rights; protect property; and take measures against crime. If the Government issues implementing decrees and directives that are at odds with legislation or presidential decrees, the president may rescind them.

Besides the ministries, the executive branch included eleven state committees and 46 state services and agencies, ranging from the State Space Agency to the State Committee for Statistics. There were also myriad agencies, boards, centers, councils, commissions, and committees. The president’s personal staff is reported to number about 2,000.

Federal Budget

The President’s staff formulates the federal budget, submits it to the Upper House, and issues a report on its implementation. In late 1994, the Upper House successfully demanded that the Government begin submitting quarterly reports on budget expenditures and adhere to other guidelines on budgetary matters, although the Legislature's budgetary powers are limited. If the Legislature rejects a draft budget from the Government, the budget is submitted to a conciliation commission including members from both branches.

Local Influence

The president retains the power to appoint and remove presidential representatives, who act as direct emissaries to the jurisdictions in overseeing local administrations' implementation of presidential policies. This ensures the majority of local voters will turn out and support the President. 

Judicial Authority

Generally speaking, the judiciary functions as a tool of the executive. While occurrences of petty crime or minor civil matters like divorces are generally handled in a competent and fair manner. Political or economically important matters are decided almost uniformly in the fashion that the ruling elite would like them to be decided. Often, this might be directly against the interests of other elites, as the ruling elite of Donovia recognize the international political and economic value of the appearance of an independent judiciary.

The Supreme Court is the highest judicial authority. The district courts are the primary criminal trial courts, and the regional courts are the primary appellate courts. The judiciary is appointed by the president and governed by the Donovian Congress of Judges and its Council of Judges. Its management is aided by the Judicial Department of the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Justice, and the various courts' chairpersons. There are many officers of the court, including jurors, but the Prosecutor General remains the most powerful component of the Donovian judicial system.

Court infrastructure and the financial support of judges is provided by the Ministry of Justice, however for housing they must depend on local authorities in the jurisdiction they oversee. The average salary for a judge is USD1,000 per month, an amount that provides an opening for acts of corruption and bribery. These circumstances, combined with irregularities in the appointment process and the continued strong position of the UDP, deprives judges in the lower jurisdictions of independent authority. Numerous matters which are dealt with by administrative authority in European countries remain subject to political influence in western Donovia.

The Legislature passed a Criminal Procedure Code and other judicial reforms during its 2014 session. These reforms help make the judicial system more compatible with its Western counterparts and are seen by most as an accomplishment in human rights. The reforms have reintroduced jury trials in certain criminal cases and created a more adversarial system of criminal trials that protect the rights of defendants more adequately. The introduction of the new code led to significant reductions in time spent in detention for new detainees, and the number of suspects placed in pretrial detention declined by 30%.

Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy

Internationally, most other countries view the Donovian government as effective, though its high level of corruption reduces the legitimacy the current regime once held after the initial recovery following the Four Traitors incident. Increasing use of social media and other information-age technologies continue to challenge the Donovian state’s near-monopoly on information, and the more blatant abuses of power regarding corruption and self-dealing by the economic/political elite in Donovia now sometimes leak out to the country as a whole. The government’s usual response is to stifle such outbursts by the arrest of the whistle blower, create counter-accusations, and on occasion indict a scapegoat for corruption or graft. The Donovian government intends for these indictments to prove that the state is actively “doing something” to stop corruption. Arresting the whistle blower on charges of espionage is an especially prevalent tactic when it involves the military or intelligence services.

Information operations are a key part of the UDP retaining power. This includes information support operations, cyberspace operations, electronic spectrum monitoring, deception, psychological operations, public affairs, and strategic communications. Donovians use information operations as a decisive tool rather than a supporting element of state power.

Domestic Political Issues

Donovia views domestic political stability as a critical component of national strength. The UDP has worked to consolidate power. These efforts to further centralize control have been challenged by a slowing economy, lower energy prices, and growing public discontent with a system that lacks any genuine pluralism. The UDP leaders promised to restore Donovia to great power status, on par with the United States, to mobilize public support and secure their legitimacy.

Corruption is the prime domestic political issue in western Donovia, though the authorities go to extensive lengths to ensure their complicity remains hidden from the public. The structure of the Donovian state, especially after the Four Traitors incident, enabled a small group of individuals to use inordinate power to “root out corruption” despite their actual role in the corruption. The electoral process serves to reinforce the power of the elite, and the state maintains its power over citizens with the citizen having little recourse. The participation of ethnic or religious minorities is minimal, with a few showpiece individuals who operate as little more than ethnic functionaries.

The attitude in western Donovia towards Donovians who have emigrated throughout Europe, the Baltic States, and the GBCC countries varies between disdain to insistence these “brothers” are expected to assist Donovia in every instance, and often depends on the individuals ethnic and socio-economic characteristics. Expat assistance to the state can include economic activities, business opportunities, refuting press articles critical of Donovia, and performing passive surveillance and espionage. 

Elections

Donovian elections usually allow the voter to select between two or more UDP-approved candidates, even if no candidate runs under the UDP banner. The UDP and the government will only allow politicians to run if they support the UDP, or more usually, UDP loyalists who make a show of defecting to an opposition political party. Polling places in western Donovia are isolated to police stations under the guise of “security”. This is especially true in Kaliningrad. Federal law requires at least 50% of eligible voters participate in order for a presidential election to be valid.

Rule of Law

The concept of “rule of law” in a Western liberal context is alien to Donovia. The power of the state, combined with its highly incestuous relationship with dominant economic entities, means the likelihood of the individual receiving a fair hearing from an impartial judiciary or independent media forum remains nearly zero. The judiciary is seen by the Donovian populace as widely compliant with political demands, even in the case of high-profile issues. Once charged, the defendant pleads guilty or the court finds in favor of the government’s case with little chance of meaningful appeal by the defendant.

Corruption

Donovia is rated 131 of 176 countries in the corruption perception index. Corruption exists across all levels of political life within Donovia, and is particularly evident in western Donovia. From the most junior policeman to the highest public officials, self-enrichment is considered a hallmark of public life and public service. The relationships between the largest businesses within western Donovia and the UDP are extensive, and during elections the resources of both the state and private business are directed toward ensuring the political success of the UDP.

Extortion and corruption commonly occur in the Donovian business environment. The economic crisis precipitated by the actions of the Four Traitors serves as a prime example of the detrimental effects of Donovia’s systemic corruption. Resolution techniques for business disputes often include the threat of violence, which, in some cases can lead to actual violence. Organized criminal groups and, in some cases local police, frequently target foreign businesses for extortion. This practice places smaller businesses in a precarious situation where they can either risk their livelihoods or acquiesce and feed into the corruption.

Organized Social clubs often act as cover for corrupt activities. The Pan-Donovian Law Enforcement Brotherhood describes itself as a champion of charitable causes in order to cement partnerships between police organizations and their respective local communities. In reality, it is a nation-wide network that aims to set the conditions for continued extortion of the population by security officials. Another group present in Donovia is the National Inter-Business Cooperative. While at surface level, this organization appears to be a Donovian version of the Chamber of Commerce, its members are often steeped in government-corporate corruption (typically involving bribes to avoid taxes), extortion, and almost universal corporate espionage.

International Relationships

Donovia aggressively provides diplomatic and materiel support to the western Donovia diaspora: individuals with actual or latent Donovian identities, Donovian expatriates and emigrants, descendants of compatriots, and foreign citizens who admire the culture and language of western Donovia. This provides a level of “plausible deniability” during disruptive events in targeted countries. This support is allied alongside extensive information operations. Donovia is not concerned about its own credibility because its core identity-defined audience will believe its messaging. In a recent military publication, a western Donovia Military Commander wrote:

“The systematic broadcasting of psychologically and ideologically-biased materials of a provocative nature, mixing partially truthful and false items of information…..can result in a mass psychosis, despair, and feelings of doom and undermine trust in the government, and force a destabilization of the country at which we direct such actions.”

Donovian expatriates and emigrants throughout the world use Donovian television extensively. Consequently, state-run television remains a primary propaganda tool and an indispensable resource for injecting pro-Donovian messages into Donovian populations throughout former Warsaw Pact states. Political and military leadership in western Donovia are working to isolate Donovian societies, both domestic and abroad, from Western influence while expanding their own power, influence and agenda.

To establish its position within international political affairs, the Donovians use a tactic call an “electronic knockdown” to reinforce their negotiations and diplomatic efforts. This tactic involves a massive cyberattack by both state and nonstate actors which will deny a smaller country use of their own power and transportation systems, medical infrastructure, mass media outlets (television, radio, Internet) and all state-provided services. This knockdown is immediately followed by a global disinformation campaign incorporating several narratives tailored to convince international policymakers that Donovia is attacking no one, and thereby disrupt any potential international response.

Donovia maintains membership in numerous international organizations to cultivate the image of a country open to working with others in the international community. The government wants to preserve its regional power position while growing its international prestige and influence.

Regional Actors

Arnland

Arnland and Donovia have normal political relations. While Arnland is more focused on increasing its relationship with the West for economic reasons, it is extremely cognizant of the importance of Donovia’s position as a regional counter‐balance to NATO.

Belarus. Belarus is a neutral country, completely separate from Donovia despite deep historical ties. Donovia recognizes and respects this political position and supports it as long as Belarus does not begin to develop NATO and EU leanings. The two countries are close trading partners and diplomatic allies. Belarus and Donovia have normal political relations. Donovia has an embassy in Minsk and consulates in Brest, Mahilyow, Orsha, and Hrodna. Belarus as an embassy in Moscow, and consulates in Bryansk, Saint Petersburg and Murmansk. In September 2017, Donovia and Belarus conducted a massive exercise in western Donovia (including Kaliningrad). This was the first combined exercise of its kind since 2013.

Bothnia

Relations with Donovia are peaceful but complex. Both countries are full members of the Council of the Baltic Sea States. Bothnia continues to import many Donovian goods and basic necessities, such as fuel, and the two nations agree on issues more than they disagree. Contemporary issues include pollution of the Baltic Sea, and Donovian duties on exported wood to Bothnia's pulp and paper industry. Donovia has an embassy in Brahea. Bothnia has an embassy in Moscow, a consulate-general in Saint Petersburg, and two branches of the consulate (in Murmansk and Petrozavodsk).

In the past Donovia has attempted to interfere aggressively in Bothnian affairs by initiating cyber-attacks and issuing threats toward Bothnia should it attempt to develop closer ties with NATO. Recently Donovia has supplied military hardware to Bothnia, often at cost price; this appears to have been much more effective in strengthening ties.

Denmark. Denmark is a member of NATO and is closely watched by Donovia. Denmark agreed in 2014 to equip at least one frigate with radar to contribute to NATO ballistic missile defense (BMD) and made further progress in 2016 toward this goal. The country was threatened by Donovia’s ambassador in Copenhagen, who stated, “I do not believe that Danish people fully understand the consequences of what may happen if Denmark joins the American-led missile defense system. If Denmark joins, Danish warships become targets for Donovian nuclear missiles.” A new Danish Defense Agreement announced in early 2018 reiterated the nation’s planned contribution to BMD.

Estonia

Estonia is a NATO member. Two years ago, Estonia was the victim of an “electronic knockdown”, traced to servers in western Donovia. While this did not lead to an invasion, it put Estonia on notice. Western analysts are still in disagreement concerning the strategic intent of this cyberattack.

Estonia has been a leader in the Baltics in terms of defense spending and was one of five NATO members to meet the 2% of GDP spending benchmark in 2017. Although the Estonian armed forces total only 6,600 active-duty service personnel (including the army, navy, and air force), they are held in high regard by their NATO partners and punch well above their weight inside the alliance. This is of concern to Donovia.

In response to growing Donovian aggression, Estonia reintroduced conscription for men ages 18–27, who must serve eight or 11 months before being added to the reserve rolls. The number of Estonian conscripts will increase from 3,200 to 4,000 by 2026. Procurements are expected to rise to $210 million by 2020. One recent joint procurement is with neighboring Bothnia to acquire 12 South Torbia–built howitzers by 2021. Estonia has purchased 44 used infantry fighting vehicles from the Netherlands, the last of which were delivered in 2018. In June 2018, Estonia signed a USD59 million deal to purchase short-range air defenses, with Mistral surface-to-air missiles to be delivered starting in 2020. According to Estonia’s National Defense Development Plan for 2017–2026, “the size of the rapid reaction structure will increase from the current 21,000 to over 24,400.”

Estonia has a Cyber Defense League, a reserve force that relies heavily on expertise found in the civilian sector, and is planning “to create our own full spectrum cyber command, from defense to offense.” In 2017, Estonia and the U.S. strengthened their bilateral relationship by signing a defense cooperation agreement that builds on the NATO–Estonia Status of Forces Agreement to further clarify the legal framework for U.S. troops in Estonia. In 2019, the U.S. “intends to spend more than USD15 million to improve working conditions for special operations forces on missions in the Baltics” by upgrading operations and training facilities at an undisclosed site in Estonia.

Framland

Framland and Donovia have normal political relations with growing economic and cultural exchanges, especially on a regional basis; however, they both foster an age‐old distrust, and have diverging attitudes toward the role and benefits of democracy and the legitimacy of universal human rights.

Latvia

Latvia is a NATO member and has met the NATO benchmark of 2% of GDP spent on defense, and it will also spend 43% of its defense budget on procurement. Latvia received the first of three TPS-77 Multi-Role radars, along with two unmanned aircraft systems, from the U.S. In addition, Latvia is procuring second-hand M109 self-propelled artillery pieces from Austria and has selected the Stinger man-portable air-defense system. Last January, Latvia announced plans to invest USD61.7 million on military infrastructure, including the expansion of training areas.

Latvia’s latest National Defense Concept clearly defines Donovia as a threat to national security and states that “[d]eterrence is enhanced by the presence of the allied forces in Latvia.” The concept aims to strengthen the operational capability of the armed forces through “further integration of the National Guard within the Armed Forces, strengthening the Special Tasks Unit (special operations forces), as well as boosting early-warning capabilities, airspace surveillance and air defense.”

Lithuania. Lithuania, the largest of the three Baltic States, is a NATO member and has met the NATO benchmark of 2% of GDP spent on defense. The country’s latest National Threat Assessment clearly identifies Donovia as the primary threat to the nation, leading to Lithuania has taken several actions:

• Reintroduction of Conscription in 2015.
• Dedication of significant resources to procure Tier 1&2 equipment for land maneuver, indirect fire support, air defense radars, anti-tank weapons systems, and ground-based air defense.
• Prioritization of armed forces modernization, as directed by the Prime Minister.
• Reduction of dependence upon Donovian energy exports. Lithuania is taking steps to reduce its dependence on Donovian energy. It is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility at Klaipėda in an attempt to break Donovia’s natural gas monopoly in the region. It now imports most of its gas from Norway and the U.S.

Donovian response to these actions has been cyber aggression targeting Lithuanian state institutions and the Lithuanian energy sector. In addition to these traditional cyber activities, a new phenomenon has been observed—a large-scale spread of ransomware programs originating from servers throughout western Donovia.

Otso

Relations with Donovia are peaceful. Otso imports many Donovian goods and basic necessities, such as fuel, and the two nations agree on issues more than they disagree. Contemporary issues include problems with border controls causing persistent truck queues at the border, airspace violations, pollution of the Baltic Sea, and Donovian duties on exported wood to Otso's pulp and paper industry. Donovia has an embassy in Otavia. Otso has an embassy in Moscow, a consulate‐general in Saint Petersburg, and two branches of the consulate (in Murmansk and Petrozavodsk).

Torrike. Relations between Torrike and Donovia are complex. Although Torrike was able to maintain its neutrality during the war between OtsoBothnia and Donovia, there was considerable sympathy for their former countrymen and volunteers and material assistance was sent to OtsoBothnia. Further assistance was provided to OtsoBothnia in WWII when it joined the German campaign against Donovia, but a greater distance was maintained from the conflict. Tensions between Torrike and Donovia continue. Confirmed incidents:

• February four years ago, a disinformation campaign was launched claiming Torrike’s Minister of Defense planned to sell artillery systems to Pirtuni. The source was proven to be false and was traced back to St. Petersburg.
• In March three years ago, Torrike’s security police claimed that Donovian espionage against Torrike had increased over the past year. The security police’s chief analyst claimed there were hundreds of Donovian intelligence officers in Torrike.
• In March three years ago, a series of coordinated DDoS attacks shut down the country’s newspapers for several hours. Evidence showed the attacks came from western Donovia. Torrike’s Interior Minister called it an attack on free speech.
• In April two years ago, the Donovian Foreign Minister threatened Torrike with “military and technical measures” if it joined NATO.
• In September last, a western Donovia Airlines civilian aircraft flew over military exercises in northern Torrike and refused to leave. Torrikan Soldiers reported they had been contacted by Donovian agents posing as tourists.

Estonia

Latvia, and Lithuania joined in NATO and the EU in 2004. Later, all three countries became participants of the U.S.’s Global Magnitsky Act coalition. These actions were perceived by Donovia as proof of the West’s aggressiveness and encirclement. This prompted a military response in the form of stationing multiple combat divisions near the border, emplacement of Tier 1 weapons capability in Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg, and an enlargement of the Baltic Sea fleet homeported in Saint Petersburg. Additionally, the UDP is suspected of having provided extensive support to the New Estonian Party (NEP) and other groups.

Pirtuni

Relations between Pirtuni and Donovia have deteriorated over time as Pirtuni has continued to look to the West. Donovia’s leaders are displeased with Pirtuni’s turn to the West and refuse to rule out the use of state-of-the-art anti-access/area denial air defense systems and a possible preemptive first strike with tactical nuclear weapons in the event that conflict occurs. Donovia actively exploits ethnic demographic enclaves along its border with Pirtuni, and provides direct and indirect support to radical factions involved in insurgent activities aimed at undermining Pirtunian sovereignty.

Donovia is concerned that increasingly closer ties between Pirtuni and Western nations foreshadows growing NATO influence across a wider spread of territory. Although not a member of NATO, Pirtuni’s cooperation with the alliance has intensified in proportion to its declining relationship with Donovia. Any perceived Donovian violation of Pirtuni’s sovereignty could potentially inspire a swift NATO response.

Donovia’s government is a world-class practitioner of information warfare (INFOWAR), and the flow of information inside that country is often skewed by government pressure and outright censorship. This extends to actions that involve or are directed toward Pirtuni.

Extra-Regional Actors

Olvana. The current Donovia–Olvana military relationship is a contentious mix of cooperation and competition. There are some significant shared interests, coupled with number of competing interests. Donovian threat perceptions with regard to Olvana are divided and nuanced. Donovian officials regularly praise the cooperative nature of the bilateral relationship, and the leadership has declared that the current Donovia-Olvana relationship is the best it has been in decades. In fact, the Donovian National Security Strategy lists developing a strategic partnership with Olvana as one of Donovia’s most important goals. The port of Saint Petersburg in western Donovia has been discussed as a rail-port terminus for new infrastructure tying the two countries together using trans-Eurasian trains. Moscow and Shanghai share a common interest in weakening U.S. global influence and are actively cooperating in that regard. Military cooperation between the two countries is slowly expanding, as are economic ties. Nevertheless, some Citizens are keenly aware of the growing power disparity between Donovia and an ascendant Olvana and worry that Moscow is at risk of becoming Shanghai’s junior partner. Others continue to harbor suspicions that Olvana over the longer term will once again become a military threat to Donovia.

International Organizations

“The Americans prefer to follow the rule of the strongest rather than following international law. They are convinced that they have been chosen, that they are exceptional, that they are allowed to shape the destiny of the world, and that it is only them who can be right. They act as they please. Here and there they use force against sovereign states, set up coalitions in accordance with the principle: who is not with us is against us.” 

-President of Donovia, Address to the Nation.

Donovia views participation in international organizations as a means to extend its influence, perceiving interactions as a zero-sum game focused entirely on Donovian goals. Thus, Donovia maintains a variety of associations and allies through such venues as the UN General Assembly, where it aggressively supports peacekeeping operations (improving global stature) and the Arctic Council (enhancing territorial claims). Donovia also participates in the work of intergovernmental organizations (like the International Committee of the Red Cross [ICRC]) everywhere in the world except within or on its own borders, where such activity is considered an affront to Donovian sovereignty. Less than 30 foreign and domestic nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) operate within Donovia, and face significant monitoring and limitations on their activities by the Donovian government. Two that have so far managed to successfully negotiate the minefield of operating in the country include the Women’s Health Initiative (with offices in Kaliningrad, Saint Petersburg, and Moscow) and Agricultural Partners International.

GBCC Countries

The Gulf of Bothnia Cooperation Council (GBCC) is a regional intergovernmental political and economic union. Member States consist of all countries of the Gulf of Bothnia: Arnland, Bothnia, Framland, Otso, and Torrike. Donovia has Observer status, and uses bureaucrats from western Donovia to attend official and unofficial functions.

International Economic Associations

Donovia participates in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as an observer state. It participates in various other international economic associations, particularly those that involve oil and gas discussions. By being an observer, Donovia is able to be part of the conversation, but is still able to follow a somewhat independent pricing model from OPEC, and is quick to play up the independence of Donovian pricing and its ability to secure its oil and gas exports in an effort to gain supplier contracts. Once both sides agree to a contract, the Donovians will use the leverage to gain political and economic concessions in other areas, such as support for Donovian diplomatic initiatives or Donovian corporations’ access to foreign markets.

Military Alliances

Where possible, Donovia continues to develop military alliances, initiate agreements, and distribute influence around the world, especially with its close neighbors. Donovia attempts to leverage economic relationships into military and diplomatic ones, and vice versa. Donovia couples military sales with offers of training and military advising, using the presence of Donovian “boots on the ground” to grant itself equities. Donovia then uses this equity to justify further political/military access and control in foreign countries, or at least accommodation of Donovian economic concerns. The Donovian government often uses military sales as a loss-leader in order to get its foot in the door to further the overall Donovian political/military/economic strategy. However, Donovia is not interested in patronage relationship. National policy remains largely transactional aimed at expanding arms sales and other Donovian economic interests.

Military relations with Olvana have been growing through exchange of liaison officers, exchange students in professional development courses, and bi-annual exercises involved land forces, maritime forces, and air forces.

Influential Political Groups

Donovia strives to portray itself as an open democracy that embraces multiple views and political perspectives. While the Donovian political system has the hallmarks of a democracy, it is highly susceptible to external persuasion and corruption from both social and economic influencers. There are five official political parties, however there is only one opposition party (the New Donovia Party). The other three parties (Donovian League, Freedom and Justice, and the Scarlet Party) claim political independence, but it is nominal at best and their actions fall in line with the desires of the majority Unionist Democratic Party (UDP).

The Unionist Democratic Party (UDP) serves as the country’s primary political party. While three of the other four main parties (Donovian League, Freedom and Justice, and the Scarlet Party) are nominally independent, they are actually outgrowths of the UDP’s attempt to portray Donovia as a Western-style democracy. The New Donovia Party (NDP) is the only true opposition party, but its political power is highly truncated by the actions of the UDP. As indicated previously, three additional political parties—Donovian League, Freedom and Justice, and the Scarlet Party—participate in the government and superficially compete against each other. All three parties contain small numbers of elected positions at the national legislative level, with members often appointed to positions in the several republics. These three parties, however, remain window dressing for the UDP, which they actually support.

Official Political Parties

Unionist Democratic Party

The Unionist Democratic Party (UDP) serves as the country’s major domestic political party. It directs three other parties that, while they claim their independence, in reality are staffed with former UDP loyalists and in many cases are funded covertly by the UDP, to present the façade of a multiparty system. The NDP serves as the country’s prime opposition political party, operating completely unaffiliated from the UDP and attempting to shed light on UDP abuses and corruption. Recently, the NDP started to receive some significant support from elements within the military and additional support through social media and the Internet. Some proof of UDP or government corruption and graft now reaches the Internet, which forces the government to either disavow the corruption or face the argument of its connivance in corrupt practices. At the national level, the UDP’s leaders demonstrate a willingness to throw those caught to the political wolves, if necessary, to prevent the allegations from coming upon themselves. At the local level, the UDP often acts with a much more heavy-handed response, with reports of suspicious deaths for those who report governmental misconduct.

Donovian League

The Donovian League (DL) participates in the government, and competes against the Freedom and Justice Party and the Scarlet Party for minor positions. The DL frequently holds a small number of elected positions at the national legislative level, with members often appointed to positions in the several republics.

Freedom and Justice Party

The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) participates in the government, and competes against the Donovian League and the Scarlet Party for minor positions. The FJP frequently holds a small number of elected positions at the national legislative level, with members often appointed to positions in the several republics.

Scarlet Party

The Scarlet Party (SP) participates in the government, and competes against the Donovian League and the Freedom and Justice Party for minor positions. The SP frequently holds a small number of elected positions at the national legislative level, with members often appointed to positions in the several republics.

New Donovia Party

The New Donovia Party (NDP) is the only true opposition party, but its political power is highly truncated by the influence and actions of the UDP. Efforts by the NDP to gain broader support are often suppressed by the government and the FDP alike, with leadership and organizers often being targeted for extra scrutiny by law enforcement agencies.

Other Domestic Influential Groups

In addition to the official political parties, there are also a variety of groups that exert domestic political influence. The groups originate from a variety of constituencies, and seek to both raise public awareness for certain issues and advocate for legislation. While many of these groups may appear to be independent, they are often taking direction from the UDP, or have members of the UDP holding influential positions within their organizations.

Donovia’s government practices strict control over domestic influencers. Foreign entities are often kept from officially setting up operations in Donovia, creating a situation where foreign organizations must conduct business through unofficial channels if they want access into Donovia. Conversely, Donovia actively seeks enable the export of Donovian advocacy groups into other regions.

Donovian Orthodox Christian Church

The Donovian Orthodox Christian Church (DOCC) is prominent throughout western Donovia and holds a high degree of influence within the population. In addition to its institutions within Donovia, it supports Donovians abroad through churches in the Baltic States and the GBCC countries. Over the past two decades, the UDP leadership has worked extensively to integrate the DOCC into a patriotic narrative, shaping the social fabric of the country. As a result, Church leaders are highly visible at all state sponsored and state sanctioned public events, especially patriotic parades and rallies, government policy announcements, and international gatherings.

There is broad political support for a wide range of Donovian Orthodox Christian organizations designed to promote nationalism, such as youth leagues, educational clubs that support the use of the Donovian language over regionalized minority languages. The UDP often uses these organizations to support its political goals and broadcast the overall political message that merges UDP and Donovian state agendas. Indeed, UDP party personnel often man many of these organizations, which are funded by state or UDP money, or private individuals, despite their status as single-issue or advocacy organizations. Some funding may come from transnational organized crime groups, but needs more investigation from international law enforcement.

National Veterans Association

The National Veterans Association (NVA), advocates for legislature and attempts to raise public awareness for regarding military and veterans issues. Additionally the NVA uses its image to push for public support on non-military related agenda. The Donovian government often uses the NVA as a litmus test for potential legislative changes that would affect foreign policy and military affairs, as the NVA has strong connections to the active Donovian military. This relationship enables the government to both test new policy and to influence popular support among the military for policy changes.

Environmental Donovia Association

The Environmental Donovia Association advocates for legislature and attempts to raise public awareness for regarding environmental issues and economic policy. While its name would imply that it prioritizes environmental safety, it is often used by the government to provide legitimacy to economic policies from an environmental perspective.

Human Rights of Donovia Campaign

The Human Rights of Donovia Campaign (HRDC) advocates for legislature and attempts to raise public awareness regarding human rights abuses. The HRDC often has to operate within a precarious space where it must balance its efforts to expose human rights abuses without falling out of favor with the UDP and the government. Often times this leads the HRDC to downplay domestic issues and emphasize human rights abuses abroad, particular those by nations that Donovia views as adversaries.