Social: Gorgas

As a long-standing meeting place of the European and Middle Eastern civilizations, Atropian society possesses social elements from both Europe and the Middle East. This is reflected in a culture that embraces the emphasis on higher education as in Europe, along with the social conservatism and traditions of Islam. Many Atropians enjoy a high education level, and some are bilingual. Atropian authorities place much emphasis on their vision of social order, which includes suppression of journalists and restrictions on religious organizations and celebrations. Atropia and the US enjoy a history of cooperation, and this will likely continue into the future.

Atropians consider themselves a branch of the Kalarian people and spoken Atropian is linguistically similar to Kalarian. In addition to their links with Kalaria, Atropians have links with Ariana, especially to the large Atropian minority there. Any Arianian attacks on the Atropian minority in Ariana, however, could trigger a reaction from the Atropian government or the people living along the Atropia/Ariana border.

Population Movement (Migration/IDPs/Refugees)

The war in Lower Janga forced the movement of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Atropian refugees into Atropia, where they remain one of the largest reminders of the war today. Over 15 years after the end of the conflict, more than a half million refugees remain unsettled. Atropia currently possesses one of the largest populations of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Europe. The IDPs originate from one of the bloodiest, but relatively unknown, late 20th century wars that occurred from 1991 to 1994 between Atropians and Limarians. The war killed over 30,000 on both sides, and the repercussions from the subsequent population displacement reverberate to the present day.

In 1994, an internationally brokered ceasefire ended the conflict, though the Atropian and Lower Jangan government forces continue to exchange sporadic fire. The former Atropian residents of Lower Janga refuse to return to the separatist region. Lower Janga remains officially part of Atropia, but a Lower Jangan Republic (supported by Limaria) politically and militarily controls the area. Minor conflict along the enclave’s borders continues, as both sides often exchange small arms fire.

For the most part, Atropia failed to integrate the Atropian Lower Janga refugees due to a variety of factors. While monetary resources remain the primary issue, the Atropian government’s official negotiation position remains that the IDPs possess the political right to return to their homes in the Lower Janga enclave. Recently, however, the Atropian government and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) increased the resources to support the refugees and exerted additional effort to normalize the IDPs’ lives and status.

The refugees’ status slowly shows signs of normalization, as the situation’s permanency and continued Limarian control of Lower Janga become a de facto element of Atropian political life. By 2007, the Atropian government replaced most tent camps with permanent dwellings. Government services and economic opportunities available to IDPs outside major cities, however, remain extremely limited. This conflict, although unofficial at this point, still negatively affects the lives of those displaced. The IDP integration into Atropian society will continue to tax the government’s resources. Even though the Atropians’ loss in the Atropia-Limaria conflict occurred in 1994, the defeat stills affects the Atropian population’s psyche today.

Migration is minimal, and usually consists of members of different ethnic groups repatriating to their country of origin.

Population Distribution

Atropia reflects an increasingly urban population and just over half of all Atropians (52%) live in cities, with an annual urbanization rate of 1%. Baku, the capital, is the largest metropolitan area with over two million inhabitants, or one-quarter of the total national population. The cities of Ganja and Sumgayit both contain over 300,000 people, while six other cities possess populations of 50,000 or higher. The most obvious impact of urbanization is the adoption of more Western cultural elements (most noticeably in dress, gender roles, the importance of religion, and educational practices) in lieu of traditional Atropian practices, which is a classic pattern in many developing countries. Atropia’s ethnic Donovian population resides predominately in an enclave in the northeast tip of the country. This enclave is on the border with Donovia and has access to the Caspian Sea to the east.

Demographic Mix

Demographically, Atropia follows the classic trends for a balanced society. Women represent 50.7% of the total population, and females outlive males in Atropia by nine years, on average. About 2,336,611 males and 2,329,275 females belong to the 16-49 age group and serve as Atropia’s available manpower for military service. Of this 4.6 million, 3.7 million meet the medical standards for military service. About 84,441 males and 78,905 females reach military age annually in Atropia. It is likely that the maximum number of Atropian males ready for military service would top out at about 820,000. Atropia will likely always maintain a military advantage over its historical enemy Limaria due to its larger population, the greater number of people who reach military age each year, and its ability to fund the military through its hydrocarbon resources.

Social Volatility

Persistent conflict with Limaria exists as one of a few defining and unifying elements throughout Atropian society and creates high social volatility. The fallout over the Lower Janga conflict manifests itself as a legacy of external oppression, military defeat, and refugees. Moreover, the threat of conflict represents a useable tool for the Atropian government to justify a large military establishment and repressive internal measures. Few Atropians maintain positive feelings toward Limarians. With an increase in oil revenues and a generally positive growth in the Atropian economy, however, few Atropians harbor violent dissatisfaction with the current government. The Atropians will continue to support the current regime as indicated by the parliamentary election results of November 2010. However, Southern Atropians do not feel represented by their government and are seeking the establishment of a separate country of ethnic Atropians that would exist in Atropia’s southern provinces and Ariana’s northwestern provinces.

While numerous reasons exist for internal conflict in Atropia, two main reasons stand out above all others—ethnocentrism (separatist movement) and nationalism. This internal strife devolved to irregular warfare as state and nonstate actors struggled to gain legitimacy and influence over the populace. Sporadic violence over the last decade targeted government entities and key leaders. Several foreign-supported anti-Atropian insurgent groups operate within Atropian territory. The two dominant groups in the area of operations are the South Atropian Peoples’ Army (SAPA) and Salasyl.

Salasyl is the one of largest groups within Atropia, second only in size to SAPA. Its center of gravity is in the southeast portion of the country; however, the group is fully capable of (and does) conduct operations throughout the country. It is also reported that the group may have ties to transnational criminal and terrorist actors. The extent and dynamic of the relationship between Salasyl and these transnational actors are unknown at this time.

For the last two decades, Salasyl has engaged the current Atropian regime in a low-level insurgency. Salasyl foments violent opposition to the legitimate Atropian government by the local populace due to state taxation policies; lack of reliable public services such as electrical power, sewage, and potable water; substandard preventive medical services; lack of access to state education programs for working class citizens; and a state judicial system that illegally favors the political party currently in control of the government’s executive and legislative branches.

SAPA, the other major insurgent group that relates culturally to Ariana, wants to create a separate country composed of southern Atropia and Ariana’s northwestern provinces that contain an ethnic Atropian majority. The SAPA feels that the South Atropian People’s Party (SAPP) carries little weight in the Atropian political system, and reforms to assist the local people show few signs of progress. The SAPA, while it operates throughout Atropia, focuses on eight provinces in southern and central Atropia due to cultural ties with Ariana. The SAPA operates in three separate major units—Northern, Central, and Southern Commands. The group conducts nearly all of its training in Ariana, where it receives most of its equipment and supplies. Reports indicate that Arianian Special Purpose Forces or other “advisors” may support the SAPA with logistics and training in the country. The Salasyl insurgents often clash violently with the SAPA over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools.

The Free Lower Janga Movement (FLJM) is a rebel group fighting Limarians in the Lower Janga region. The FLJM found a fertile recruiting ground in the IDP camps in northwestern Atropia. The FLJM is passively supported by the government of Atropia.

Additional insurgent activity present in Atropia is focused around the Bilasuvar Freedom Brigade (BFB) operating in northern Vetlia and Erdabil provinces, and the Provisional Army of Lezgin (PAL) operating in southern Erdabil and western Sirvaki Provinces. Other groups and affiliates in Atropia find themselves sympathetic to pro-Western economic initiatives and social-political concepts of state governance.

Education Level

There is a relatively high level of education among the Atropian population. The UN Human Development Index indicates an adult Atropian literacy rate of 98.8%. Atropian public education expenditures, however, remain comparatively low by regional standards. Atropia spends about 2.8% of its Gross National Product (GNP) on education. Along with stagnant spending, Atropian education demonstrates unsatisfactory progress, as 55% of students fail to meet the minimum score for national university entrance exams. Atropia maintains a robust higher education system with a number of colleges and universities. Many Atropian colleges have partnered with Western universities, including American ones. While Atropia enjoys high literacy, the government will need to invest additional resources to adequately prepare Atropian children for college, meet the increased demands of a global economy, and provide proper stewardship for Atropia’s oil wealth. For the immediate future, it remains likely that Atropia will educate enough of its populace to exploit the country’s hydrocarbon resources and make up any shortfalls by the importation of skilled labor from other countries.

Ethnic Diversity

Atropia is almost entirely ethnically Atropian with a few non-Atropians who primarily reside in border areas or Baku. The official government census probably undercounts ethnic minorities, as the official numbers of the smaller ethnic groups consistently vary from self-counts and academic assessments. Atropians represent 90.6% of the total population while Arianians represent 3%, Gilani represent 2.2%, and Donovians 1.8%. A number of smaller groups that include Limarians in the Lower Janga area comprise the remainder. Atropians dominate almost all facets of the country's political, social, and economic life. While no minority harbors considerable anti-Atropian sentiment, non-Atropians hold no significant status in the country’s cultural, economic, or social life.

Religious Diversity

The percent of Atropians who consider themselves Muslim is 93.4, but polls suggest that only about 21% of Atropians believe religion plays an important factor in their daily life. Eighty-nine percent of Atropians are of the Shia denomination. Additionally, 2.5% are Donovian Orthodox and 2.3% are Limarian Orthodox.

While religion does not color daily life like in neighboring Ariana, data suggests that some Atropians, especially the young, increasingly self-identify themselves as Muslims. From the late 1990s, the Atropian government implemented a variety of methods to control incipient Islamization. These programs include the deportation of foreign (predominately Arianian) religious instructors, arrest and conviction of pro-Arianian religious elements for espionage, and the subjugation of other religious elements to government oversight. This oversight allows for government approval of mullahs and other religious authorities. Other religions require government approval, and the Atropian government uses these actions to control other religions, such as Christianity.

Atropia risks the creation of a situation where the lack of political representation creates the conditions for the rise of militant political Islam, as seen in Egypt or Ariana in the 1970s. In both cases, the lack of political pluralism funneled discontent into religious extremism. The Atropian government seems willing to run that risk as seen by its limitation on public Ashura celebrations, an important Shia holiday.

Common Languages

Atropian serves as the common language in Atropia, but Atropians often understand other languages. Different languages spoken by large numbers of Atropians include Donovian and Kalarian. By law, Atropian is the official language of Atropia, but the Atropian government protects the rights of “native” language speakers. Any US personnel who speak Donovian, Kalarian, or Atropian will likely find themselves with the ability to communicate with Atropian residents. Those who do not speak one of these three languages will need to use an interpreter.

Criminal Activity

Atropia shows signs of increasingly violent crime and a high level of criminal activity. Baku, in particular, experiences a continuing problem with violent robbery gangs instead of the traditional pickpockets that inhabit many cities. However, nonviolent crimes such as theft remain the norm in Atropia. Terrorist elements have operated within Atropia in the past. Recently, terrorists targeted the American Embassy in Baku, but Atropian security forces arrested the plotters.

The US State Department strongly discourages travel within or around the borders of Lower Janga due to the threat of violence. As with many nations in the region, its central location and often corrupt police make Atropia a transit point for drugs, weapons, and trafficked persons. Most notably, Atropian law enforcement agents increased their drug seizures consistently over the last several years from 300 kilograms four years ago, to 600 kilograms three years ago, to over one metric ton of narcotics two years ago and over 1.25 metric tons last year. It remains unclear if these higher seizure figures resulted from additional narcotics traffic, increased police efficiency, or a combination of the two. A growing concern among law enforcement within Atropia is the increase in trafficking tunnels from Ariana and Limaria. These underground networks were created to shield criminal groups and their nefarious smuggling activities from law enforcement agencies on both sides of the border. These underground facilities vary in complexity and can be quickly constructed. The exact amount of underground networks is unknown at this time; however, there are an estimated 20 operational tunnels.

Human Rights

Most international monitoring groups consider the human rights situation in Atropia to be generally poor. Issues such as the government’s intervention in elections, deaths of journalists, and harsh treatment of police detainees make the Atropian human rights situation unsatisfactory by Western standards. If judged in concert with its regional neighbors, however, Atropia possesses a moderate human rights climate, especially compared to the repression found in Ariana. In addition, the Atropian government displays negative habits, such as police corruption and a biased judiciary that often serve the government’s political goals through the detention of political dissidents. Atropian citizens, however, generally trust their police forces, something unique when compared to Atropia’s regional neighbors. While the equality of women continues to slowly improve, significant gaps remain between the genders. Still, overall, Atropia is progressive in its politics and religion compared to Ariana, and its citizens enjoy a greater degree of freedom. Unless requested by the Atropian government, US personnel will probably not be called upon to enforce human rights except as designated by the Geneva Convention and other applicable rules of warfare.

Centers of Social Power

The family serves as the primary social unit in Atropia. Some 93.4% of Atropians practice Islam. While 89% of Atropian Muslims are Shia, they do not practice their faith with the same fervor as their Arianian neighbors. Visitation to extended families serves as a primary social activity, especially in the rural areas.

Basic Cultural Norms and Values

Atropia possesses a history of military service and directs its military focus at Limaria, a Christian nation. The 1990s war over the Lower Janga region continued the Muslim-Christian conflict in the region. Atropia still believes that the Lower Janga region belongs to its country and ultimately wants to force the reunification of the two areas. This goal serves as a rallying cry and a point of honor for Atropia.

Summary

Atropian society represents a secularized Muslim country. Atropia wants to adopt Western attitudes culturally while simultaneously seeking to retain traditional Atropian characteristics such as their language. While the Atropian government often acts heavy-handedly and exhibits some corruption, there is considerable latitude socially when measured against comparable neighbors, such as Ariana. The potential for fundamentalist Islamization of the Atropian population remains, especially as the response to a lack of political pluralism. Aggressive Islam, however, could well find rocky soil in Atropia, as the high levels of secularization will keep cultural Muslims from the adoption of an aggressive, politically Muslim identity. Atropians will likely continue their path to espouse more Western social standards as the population continues to become more urbanized. The effects of centuries of Islamic practices, however, will continue to echo in Atropian thought. The outcome will likely result in a uniquely Atropian state and maintain Atropia’s place as a cultural crossroads between the Islamic Middle East and Europe.