The latest National Security Strategy identifies Donovian national interests as strengthening the country’s defense, ensuring political and social stability, raising the living standard, preserving and developing culture, improving the economy, and strengthening Donovia’s status as a leading world power. These national interests are to be achieved through concentration on eight strategic national priorities:

National defense
State and public security
Economic growth
Science, technology and education
Healthcare
Culture
Ecology of living systems and rational use of natural resources
Strategic stability and equal strategic partnership

Donovia has maintained its position as a strong power, despite its relative material weakness, through its superior use of information as a tool of asymmetric statecraft. Donovian leaders consider information operations to be a decisive tool of state power and engage in constant international competition and domestic control in the information domain, executed by both state and non-state actors. These coordinated efforts to project influence using information and disinformation make Donovian foreign policy unique. The logic of information operations often guides Donovia’s coordinated diplomatic, military, and economic efforts. Donovian leaders and foreign policy makers ignore truth and produce “facts” to be broadcast to targeted audiences in order to achieve strategic objectives.

The National Security Strategy identified threats to state and public security posed by foreign nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), “color revolutions” (as in Georgia, Pirtuni, and Kyrgyzstan), and the use of social media to foment unrest and undermine political and social stability, reflecting Donovian officials’ allegations that Western powers seek to provoke regime change in Donovia. The much quoted claim is that these and the Arab Spring were the result of planned Western interventions using hybrid warfare. Donovian statecraft is unique in that influence is not about attraction or even persuasion, but is centered on distraction and manipulation.

The Kremlin views internal political stability as a critical component of national strength and projecting power abroad.

Centers of Political Power

Real power within Donovia rests with a small group of elites. These elites distribute political power in a self-dealing fashion, using their political sway to ensure the success of economic allies, and using the proceeds of economic dealings to reinforce their political position through patronage and corruption. These elites arose from the elements of the law enforcement, military, and intelligence communities that immediately coalesced to contain the damage of the Four Traitors and the resultant decline of the Donovian state. Key to consolidating domestic power is control of all media. Donovia political elites conduct extensive, continuous, and successful information operations at home. They are actively fortifying their citizens for a war as the nation is always in a declared or undeclared war. The majority of Citizens in Donovia West support the country’s foreign policy, especially towards the U.S. and NATO. This is reinforced by identity-based narratives of Pan-Slavic and Donovia West nationalism, remembrances of the Great War, and wear of the Saint George ribbon on all military uniforms.

The UD has taken steps to neutralize political opposition by expanding laws to impose harsh sentences that discourage public protests and encourage self-censorship. It has also restructured its internal security forces to ensure a more loyal and responsive apparatus. Donovia maintains security forces that are not subordinate to the military to conduct a range of internal security and policing functions.

**Donovian Domestic Security Forces**
Ministry/Agency	Mission	Personnel (nationwide)
National Guard	Regime and internal security, federal law enforcement	200,000
Ministry of Internal Affairs (MoIA)	Civil policing and local law enforcement	904,800
Federal Security Services (FSS) Border Troops	Border security: ground and maritime	170,000
Ministry of Justice (MoJ)	Civil judicial system, prison guarding	32,000
Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM)	Civil defense, disaster response, humanitarian relief, firefighting	289,000
Federal Protection Service (FPS)	Presidential, VIP, and regime protection	20,000

Military Authority

The military is loyal to the political leadership and generally prides itself on its professionalism. The UD is wary of the military as possibly the only force in Donovia capable of ousting the existing civilian leadership, and is quick to buy off influential elements of the military with weapons outlays and post-military civilian employment to ensure continued loyalty. The result in Donovia West has been the buildup of land, maritime, air, and missile forces, and the fortifying of Kaliningrad. Still, the military wields much political power and can force its will in instances of foreign interference (real or perceived).

Family Authority

The family has been an important buffer against much of the societal upheaval that has occurred in Donovia over the past years. Discrimination against and persecution of minorities within Donovia have caused these groups to rely heavily on their immediate and extended families as a means of support, both economically and otherwise. The loss of national trust and the ensuing economic crisis brought about by the Four Traitors incident caused even the Orthodox Christians to retrench into trusted family relationships at the expense of societal relationships.

Families throughout all of the various demographic groups within Donovia ascribe to a patriarchal form of family organization. The strength of the patriarchy is dependent, in some degree, on where a family lives. The forces of urbanization tend to create family relationships where women have more say within the family. At the other end of the spectrum, families living in rural areas and minorities forced into small enclaves within cities tend to have stronger patriarchal control.

Attitude toward the U.S. and NATO

“The Americans prefer to follow the rule of the strongest and not by the international law. They are convinced that they have been chosen and they are exceptional, that they are allowed to shape the destiny of the world, that it is only them that can be right. They act as they please. Here and there they use force against sovereign states, set up coalitions in accordance with the principle: who is not with us is against us.” –President of Donovia, Address to the Nation.

Donovia views the United States and its NATO partners as the principle threat to Donovian security, its geo-political ambitions, and most importantly, it’s continued hold on power. The latest National Security Strategy identifies the United States and its NATO allies as Donovia’s main threat, and accuses the West of pursuing a deliberate policy of containment against Donovia to sustain its domination of the post-Cold War international order and deprive Donovians of their rightful place on the world stage. The security strategy also cites the buildup of NATO military capabilities closer to the Donovian border, the deployment of U.S. missile defense capabilities in Europe, and the ongoing U.S. pursuit of strategic non-nuclear precision weapon systems as a serious threat to Donovian security. Donovia also has a deep and abiding distrust of U.S. efforts to promote democracy around the world and what it perceives as a U.S. campaign to impose a single set of global values. Moscow worries that U.S. attempts to dictate a set of acceptable international norms threatens it’s foundations of power by giving license for foreign meddling in Donovia’s internal affairs.

The national leadership of Donovia are convinced the United States is laying the groundwork for regime change in Donovia, a conviction further reinforced by the events in Pirtuni. Moscow views the United States as the critical driver behind tensions with Pirtuni. It sees the U.S.-backed regime change efforts of the past (Arab Spring, Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, and the “color revolutions”) as evidence of future actions focused on Donovia. Donovian leadership blames the destabilizing myth of capitalist plenty and the American Dream for causing mass discontent. Some of their leaders have even claimed the Internet is a CIA project intended to undermine Donovia.

Donovia wishes to counter the U.S. influence in Europe and the Middle East. It wishes to reassert its control over former Warsaw pact members which are now NATO members and grow influence throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To solidify control without provoking a war it cannot win, Donovia competes with the U.S. and NATO by using key nonmilitary means, information operations, in the gray zone short of war.

Attitude toward U.S. Trade

Donovia generally views U.S. trade positively, as the trade relationship may serve as a means to generate leverage over the U.S. in other matters. Donovia maintains a generally mercantilist trade policy, where trade goals are closely linked with political/diplomatic goals with an eye to advancing the combined economic and political interests of Donovia.

Type of Government

The Donovian government, on paper, is constructed in a way familiar to Western observers. According to the Constitution, the Donovia is divided into 85 federal subjects (constituent units), 22 of which are "republics". These federal subjects are grouped into districts, such as Donovia West. Most of the republics represent areas of non-Donovian ethnicity, although there are several republics with Donovian majority. The indigenous ethnic group of a republic that gives it its name is referred to as the "titular nationality". Due to decades (in some cases centuries) of internal migration inside Donovia, each nationality is not necessarily a majority of a republic's population.

The executive branch contains a popularly elected president, who in turn appoints the judiciary. The bicameral legislature possesses the right to review judiciary appointments like judges and national prosecutors, and maintains the power of the purse to determine and approve government spending. In reality, the Donovian government’s representative template serves as a public façade for a greatly incestuous single-party state. Overall, the Donovian government operates in a highly centralized manner, with little in the way of federal structures or local governance familiar to Western observers. Even at the most local levels, bureaucrats and officials are federal appointees, often not even from the areas they are assigned to serve. This ensures that the government operates in a top-down fashion and that independent elements of political power do not form.

Branches of Government

Legislative Authority

Donovia maintains a bicameral Legislature with an Upper House of 150 deputies and a Lower House of 300 deputies. Elections for both houses occur every four years, with direct proportional representation. In the case of ties, the president can cast the tie-breaking vote. In practice, the legislature’s independence does not exist, as almost all deputies consist of party loyalists or functionaries. The few independent legislators possess almost no legislative power such as to propose or block legislation or investigate government malfeasance.

Both Houses are in reality "rubber-stamp" legislative bodies, which meet only one week per quarter. The constitution directs that the two Houses meet separately in sessions open to the public, although joint meetings are held for important speeches by the president or foreign leaders. Deputies of the Legislature work full-time on their legislative duties; they are not allowed to serve simultaneously in local legislatures or hold other government positions.

Donovian legislators stood for election two years ago, with the next elections scheduled for two years from now.

Each house elects a chairman to control the internal procedures of the house. The Houses also form committees and commissions to deal with particular types of issues, which are overseen by the fulltime Deputies. These committees and commissions have significant responsibilities in devising legislation and conducting oversight. They prepare and evaluate draft laws, report on draft laws to their Houses, conduct hearings, and oversee implementation of the laws. There are twenty-eight committees and several ad hoc commissions in the Legislature. Committee positions are allocated when new parliaments are seated.

Legislative process. The legislative process in Donovia includes three hearings in the Lower House, then approvals by the Upper house and sign into law by the President.

Draft laws may originate in either legislative chamber, or they may be submitted by the president, the ministries, local legislatures and the Supreme Court. Draft laws are first considered in the Lower House. Upon adoption by a majority of the membership, a draft law is forwarded to the Upper House for consideration at its next meeting. Conciliation commissions are the prescribed procedure to work out differences in bills considered by both chambers.

A constitutional provision dictating that draft laws dealing with revenues and expenditures may be considered "only when the Government's findings are known" substantially limits the Legislature’s control of state finances. However, the legislature may alter finance legislation submitted by other branches at a later time, a power that provides a degree of traditional legislative control over the purse. The two chambers of the legislature also have the power to override a presidential veto of legislation (although this has never happened). The constitution requires at least a two-thirds vote of the total number of members of both Houses.

Executive Authority

The constitution and political practice of Donovia ensures an almost dictatorial level of power in the executive branch. Presidents can only serve two consecutive terms of six years, but after a six-year hiatus, a former president can run again. The president is usually a member or trusted agent of the Donovian elite, and can be absolutely guaranteed to defend the elite’s interests. The president possesses the ability to appoint officials at local and republic levels, guaranteeing large numbers of patronage positions and the overall loyalty of the bulk of the Donovian government. The current president is four years into his first six-year term. The next presidential election is scheduled for two years from now.

Dissident Donovian sources report the size of the presidential apparatus in Moscow and other localities at more than 75,000 people, most of them employees of state-owned enterprises directly under presidential control. There are six administrative departments which deal with citizens' rights, domestic and foreign policy, state and legal matters, personnel, analysis, and oversight. There is also a presidential advisory group with input on the economy, national security, and other matters.

Other presidential support services include the Central Directorate (in charge of investigating official corruption), the Administrative Directorate, the Presidential Press Activity, and Protocol. The Administrative Directorate controls state mansions, sanatoriums, automobiles, office buildings, and other perquisites of high office for the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government, a function that includes management of more than 200 state industries with about 50,000 employees. The Committee on Operational Questions is a "government within a government". Also attached to the presidency are more than two dozen consultative commissions and extra-budgetary "funds".

The president also has extensive powers over military policy. He approves defense doctrine, appoints and removes the high command of the armed forces, and confers higher military ranks and awards. The president is empowered to declare national or regional states of martial law, as well as state of emergency. In both cases, both legislative Houses must be notified immediately. The Upper House, has the power to confirm or reject such a decree. The regime of martial law is defined by federal law "On Martial law", signed into law in 2002. The circumstances and procedures for the president to declare a state of emergency are more specifically outlined in federal law than in the Constitution. In practice, the Constitutional Court ruled in 1995 that the president has wide leeway in responding to crises within Donovia.

Presidential elections. The Constitution sets few requirements for presidential elections, deferring in many matters to other provisions established by law. The presidential term is set at six years, and the president may only serve two consecutive terms. A candidate for president must be a citizen of Donovia, at least 35 years of age, and a resident of the country for at least ten years. If a president becomes unable to continue in office because of health problems, resignation, impeachment, or death, a presidential election is to be held not more than three months later. In such a situation, the Upper House is empowered to set the election date. Federal law requires at least 50% of eligible voters participate in order for a presidential election to be valid.

Cabinet. The 24 ministries of the Government execute credit and monetary policies and defense, foreign policy, and state security functions; ensure the rule of law and respect for human and civil rights; protect property; and take measures against crime. If the Government issues implementing decrees and directives that are at odds with legislation or presidential decrees, the president may rescind them.

Besides the ministries, the executive branch included eleven state committees and 46 state services and agencies, ranging from the State Space Agency to the State Committee for Statistics. There were also myriad agencies, boards, centers, councils, commissions, and committees. The president’s personal staff is reported to number about 2,000.

Federal budget. The President’s staff formulates the federal budget, submits it to the Upper House, and issues a report on its implementation. In late 1994, the Upper House successfully demanded that the Government begin submitting quarterly reports on budget expenditures and adhere to other guidelines on budgetary matters, although the Legislature's budgetary powers are limited. If the Legislature rejects a draft budget from the Government, the budget is submitted to a conciliation commission including members from both branches.

Local influence. The president retains the power to appoint and remove presidential representatives, who act as direct emissaries to the jurisdictions in overseeing local administrations' implementation of presidential policies. This ensures the majority of local voters will turn out and support the President.

Judicial Authority

Generally speaking, the judiciary functions as a tool of the executive. While occurrences of petty crime or minor civil matters like divorces are generally competently and fairly handled, political or economically important matters are decided almost uniformly in the fashion that the ruling elite would like them to be decided. Often, this might be directly against the interests of other elites, as the ruling elite of Donovia recognize the international political and economic value of the appearance of an independent judiciary.

The Supreme Court is the highest judicial authority. The district courts are the primary criminal trial courts, and the regional courts are the primary appellate courts. The judiciary is appointed by the president and governed by the Donovian Congress of Judges and its Council of Judges. Its management is aided by the Judicial Department of the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Justice, and the various courts' chairpersons. There are many officers of the court, including jurors, but the Prosecutor General remains the most powerful component of the Donovian judicial system.

For court infrastructure and financial support, judges must depend on the Ministry of Justice, and for housing they must depend on local authorities in the jurisdiction where they sit. The average salary for a judge is USD1,000 per month, providing an opening for corruption and bribery. These circumstances, combined with irregularities in the appointment process and the continued strong position of the UD, deprives judges in the lower jurisdictions of independent authority. Numerous matters which are dealt with by administrative authority in European countries remain subject to political influence in Donovia West.

The Legislature passed a Criminal Procedure Code and other judicial reforms during its 2014 session. These reforms help make the judicial system more compatible with its Western counterparts and are seen by most as an accomplishment in human rights. The reforms have reintroduced jury trials in certain criminal cases and created a more adversarial system of criminal trials that protect the rights of defendants more adequately. The introduction of the new code led to significant reductions in time spent in detention for new detainees, and the number of suspects placed in pretrial detention declined by 30%.

Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy

Internationally, most other countries view the Donovian government as effective, though its high levels of corruption reduce the legitimacy the current regime once held as the savior from the sleaze of the Four Traitors. Increasing use of social media and other information-age technologies continue to break the Donovian state’s near-monopoly on information, and the more blatant issues of corruption and self-dealing by the economic/political elite in Donovia now sometimes leak out to the country as a whole. The government’s usual response is to stifle such outbursts by the arrest of the whistle blower, counter-accusations, and an occasional indictment for corruption or graft. The Donovian government intends for indictments to prove that the state is “doing something” to stop corruption. Arresting the whistle blower is especially prevalent when it involves the military or intelligence services, usually on charges of espionage.

Information operations are a key part of the UD retaining power. This includes information support operations, cyberspace operations, electronic spectrum monitoring, deception, psychological operations, public affairs, and strategic communications. Donovians use information operations as a decisive tool rather than a supporting element of state power.

Domestic Political Issues

The Kremlin views domestic political stability as a critical component of national strength. The UD has worked to consolidate power. These efforts to further centralize control have been challenged by a slowing economy, lower energy prices, and growing public discontent with a system that lacks any genuine pluralism. The UD leaders promised to restore Donovia to great power status, on par with the United States, to mobilize public support and secure their legitimacy.

Corruption is the prime domestic political issue in Donovia West, though the authorities go to extensive lengths to ensure their complicity remains hidden from the public. The structure of the Donovian state, especially after the Four Traitors, allowed a small group with inordinate power to “root out corruption” despite their actual role in the corruption prevalent throughout Donovia. The electoral process serves to reinforce the power of the elite, and the state maintains its power over citizens with the citizen having little recourse. The participation of ethnic or religious minorities is minimal, with a few showpiece individuals who operate as little more than ethnic functionaries.

The attitude in Donovia West towards Donovians who have emigrated throughout Europe, the Baltic States, and the GBCC countries varies between disdain to insistence these “brothers” are expected to assist Donovia in every instance. This includes economic activities, business opportunities, refuting press articles critical of Donovia, and performing passive surveillance and espionage. In Donovia West, this plays out as feeds for propaganda and information campaigns. Local politicians reiterate key speaking points issued from the national leaders.

Elections

Donovian elections usually allow the voter to select between two or more UD-approved candidates, even if no candidate runs under the UD banner. The UD and the government will functionally only allow politicians to run if they support the UD, or more usually, UD loyalists who make a show of defecting to an opposition political party. Polling places in Donovia West are isolated to police stations under the guise of “security”. This is especially true in Kaliningrad. Federal law requires at least 50% of eligible voters participate in order for a presidential election to be valid.

Rule of Law

The concept of “rule of law” in a Western liberal context is functionally unknown within Donovia. The power of the state, combined with its highly incestuous relationship with dominant economic entities, means the likelihood of the individual receiving a fair hearing from an impartial judiciary or independent media forum remains nearly zero. The judiciary is seen by the Donovian populace as widely compliant with political demands, even in the case of high-profile issues. Once charged, the defendant pleads guilty or the court finds in favor of the government’s case with little chance of meaningful appeal by the defendant.

Corruption

Corruption exists across all levels of political life within Donovia, and especially in Donovia West. From the policeman to the highest officials, most citizens consider self-enrichment a hallmark of public life. The relationships between the largest businesses within Donovia West and the UD are extensive, and during elections the resources of both the state and private business are used to ensure the political success of the UD.

Extortion and corruption commonly occur in the Donovian business environment. The economic crisis precipitated by the actions of the Four Traitors serves as the prime example of the detrimental effects of Donovia’s systemic corruption. Business disputes may involve threats of violence and even acts of violence. Organized criminal groups and sometimes local police target foreign businesses in many cities and have been known to demand protection money. Small businesses find themselves particularly vulnerable to extortion demands.

Social clubs often act as cover for corrupt activities. The Pan-Donovian Law Enforcement Brotherhood publicly purports to champion charitable causes as a means of cementing partnerships between police organizations and their respective local communities. In reality, it is a national network that ensures citizens remain willing to bribe police officials in order to avoid harassment, arrest, incarceration, and physical abuse. Another group present in Donovia is the National Inter-Business Cooperative. Although this organization’s written charter suggests nothing more sinister than a Donovian version of the Chamber of Commerce, its members are often steeped in government-corporate corruption (typically involving bribes to avoid taxes), extortion, and almost universal corporate espionage.

International Relationships

Donovia aggressively provides diplomatic and materiel support to the Donovia West diaspora: individuals with actual or latent Donovian identities, Donovian expatriates and emigrants, descendants of compatriots, and foreign citizens who admire the culture and language of Donovia West. This provides a level of “plausible deniability” during disruptive events in targeted countries. This support is allied alongside extensive information operations. Donovia is not concerned about its own credibility because its core identity-defined audience will believe its messaging. In a recent military publication, the Donovia West Military Commander wrote: “The systematic broadcasting of psychologically and ideologically-biased materials of a provocative nature, mixing partially truthful and false items of information…..can result in a mass psychosis, despair, and feelings of doom and undermine trust in the government, and force a destabilization of the country at which we direct such actions.” Donovian expatriates and emigrants throughout the world use Donovian television extensively. This is Donovia’s main propaganda tool and the primary source of information in most post-Warsaw Pact states. The Donovia West military and political leaders are working to isolate Donovian societies from supposed Western influence while expanding their own power abroad.

To establish its dominance in political affairs, the Donovians may use an “electronic knockdown” to reinforce their negotiations and diplomatic efforts. This is a massive cyberattack by both state and nonstate actors which will deny a smaller country use of their own power and transportation systems, medical infrastructure, mass media outlets (television, radio, Internet) and all state-provided services. This knockdown will be followed by a global disinformation campaign incorporating several narratives tailored to convince international policymakers that Donovia is attacking no one, and thereby disrupt any potential international response.

Donovia maintains membership in numerous international organizations to cultivate the image of a country open to working with others in the international community. The government wants to preserve its regional power position while growing its international prestige and influence.

Regional Actors

GBCC countries

The Gulf of Bothnia Cooperation Council (GBCC) is a regional intergovernmental political and economic union. Member States consist of all countries of the Gulf of Bothnia: Arnland, Bothnia, Framland, Otso, and Torrike. Donovia has Observer status, and uses bureaucrats from Donovia West to attend official and unofficial functions.

Arnland. Arnland and Donovia have normal political relations. While Arnland is more focused on increasing its relationship with the West for economic reasons, it is extremely cognizant of the importance of Donovia’s position as a regional counter‐balance to NATO.

Bothnia. Relations with Donovia are peaceful but complex. Both countries are full members of the Council of the Baltic Sea States. Bothnia continues to import many Donovian goods and basic necessities, such as fuel, and the two nations agree on issues more than they disagree. Contemporary issues include pollution of the Baltic Sea, and Donovian duties on exported wood to Bothnia's pulp and paper industry. Donovia has an embassy in Brahea. Bothnia has an embassy in Moscow, a consulate-general in Saint Petersburg, and two branches of the consulate (in Murmansk and Petrozavodsk). Previously, Donovia has attempted to interfere aggressively in Bothnian affairs including initiating cyber-attacks and threatening Bothnia should it attempt closer ties with NATO. Recently Donovia has supplied military hardware to Bothnia, often at cost price; this appears to have been much more effective in strengthening ties.

Framland. Framland and Donovia have normal political relations with growing economic and cultural exchanges, especially on a regional basis; however, they both foster an age‐old distrust, and have diverging attitudes toward democracy and human rights.

Otso. Relations with Donovia are peaceful. Otso imports many Donovian goods and basic necessities, such as fuel, and the two nations agree on issues more than they disagree. Contemporary issues include problems with border controls causing persistent truck queues at the border, airspace violations, pollution of the Baltic Sea, and Donovian duties on exported wood to Otso's pulp and paper industry. Donovia has an embassy in Otavia. Otso has an embassy in Moscow, a consulate‐general in Saint Petersburg, and two branches of the consulate (in Murmansk and Petrozavodsk).

Torrike. Relations between Torrike and Donovia are complex. Although Torrike maintained its neutrality in the war between OtsoBothnia and Donovia, there was considerable sympathy for their former countrymen and volunteers and material assistance was sent to OtsoBothnia. Further assistance was provided to OtsoBothnia in WWII when it joined the German campaign against Donovia, but a greater distance was maintained from the conflict. Tensions between Torrike and Donovia continue. Confirmed incidents:

February four years ago, a disinformation campaign was launched claiming Torrike’s Minister of Defense planned to sell artillery systems to Pirtuni. The source was proven to be false and was traced back to St. Petersburg.
In March three years ago, Torrike’s security police claimed that Donovian espionage against Torrike had increased over the past year. The security police’s chief analyst claimed there were hundreds of Donovian intelligence officers in Torrike.
In March three years ago, a series of coordinated DDoS attacks shut down the country’s newspapers for several hours. Evidence showed the attacks came from Donovia West. Torrike’s Interior Minister called it an attack on free speech.
In April two years ago, the Donovian Foreign Minister threatened Torrike with “military and technical measures” if it joined NATO.
In September last, a Donovia West Airlines civilian aircraft flew over military exercises in northern Torrike and refused to leave. Torrikan Soldiers reported they had been contacted by Donovian agents posing as tourists.

Baltic States

“The further expansion of the [NATO] alliance, and the location of its military infrastructure closer to Donovian borders pose a threat to national security.” –President of Donovia, Address to the Nation

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined in NATO and the EU in 2004. This was perceived by Donovia as proof of the West’s aggressiveness and encirclement. This prompted a military response in the form of stationing multiple combat divisions near the border, emplacement of Tier 1 weapons capability in Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg, and an enlargement of the Baltic Sea fleet homeported in Saint Petersburg. Additionally, the UD is suspected of having provided extensive support to the New Estonian Party (NEP) and other groups.

Two years ago, Estonia was the victim of an “electronic knockdown”, traced to servers in Donovia West. While this did not lead to an invasion, it put Estonia, a NATO ally, on notice. Western analysts are still in disagreement concerning the strategic intent of this cyberattack.

Pirtuni

Relations between Pirtuni and Donovia have deteriorated over time. Donovia’s leaders are displeased with Pirtuni’s turn to the West and refuse to rule out use of state-of-the-art anti-access/area denial air defense systems and a possible preemptive first strike with tactical nuclear weapons. Donovia exploits ethnic demographic enclaves along the trace of its border with Pirtuni, and provides radical factions with direct and indirect support of insurgent activities aimed at undermining Pirtunian sovereignty.

Donovia is concerned that increasingly closer ties between Pirtuni and Western nations foretells a wider and increasing regional influence by NATO. Although not a member of NATO, Pirtuni’s cooperation with the alliance has intensified in proportion to its declining relationship with Donovia. Any perceived Donovian violation of Pirtuni’s sovereignty could potentially inspire a swift NATO response.

Donovia’s government is a world-class practitioner of information warfare (INFOWAR), and the flow of information inside that country is often skewed by government pressure and outright censorship. This extends to actions directed at Pirtuni.

Belarus

Belarus is a neutral country, completely separate from Donovia despite deep historical ties. Donovia recognizes and respects this political position and supports it as long as Belarus does not begin to develop NATO and EU leanings. The two countries are close trading partners and diplomatic allies. Belarus and Donovia have normal political relations. Donovia has an embassy in Minsk and consulates in Brest, Mahilyow, Orsha, and Hrodna. Belarus as an embassy in Moscow, and consulates in Bryansk, Saint Petersburg and Murmansk.

Olvana

The current Donovia–Olvana military relationship is a mix of cooperation and competition. There are some significant shared interests, coupled with number of competing interests. Donovian threat perceptions with regard to Olvana are divided and nuanced. Donovian officials regularly praise the cooperative nature of the bilateral relationship, and the leadership has declared that the current Donovia-Olvana relationship is the best it has been in decades. In fact, the Donovian National Security Strategy lists developing a strategic partnership with Olvana as one of Donovia’s most important goals. The port of Saint Petersburg in Donovia West has been discussed as a rail-port terminus for new infrastructure tying the two countries together using trans-Eurasian trains. Moscow and Shanghai share a common interest in weakening U.S. global influence and are actively cooperating in that regard. Military cooperation between the two countries is slowly expanding, as are economic ties. Nevertheless, some Citizens are keenly aware of the growing power disparity between Donovia and an ascendant Olvana and worry that Moscow is at risk of becoming Shanghai’s junior partner. Others continue to harbor suspicions that Olvana over the longer term will once again become a military threat to Donovia.

International Organizations

Donovia views its participation in international organizations as a prime means to extend its influence and such participation as a zero-sum game, with Donovian goals as its prime interest. Thus, Donovia contains a mixed bag of associations and allies in such venues as the UN General Assembly, where it aggressively supports peacekeeping operations and the Arctic Council. Donovia also participates actively in the work of intergovernmental organizations (like the International Committee of the Red Cross [ICRC]) everywhere in the world except within or on its own borders, where such activity is considered an affront to Donovian sovereignty. Less than 30 foreign and domestic nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) operate within Donovia, and face significant monitoring and limitations on their activities by the Donovian government. Two that have so far managed to successfully negotiate the minefield of operating in the country include the Women’s Health Initiative (with offices in Kaliningrad, Saint Petersburg, and Moscow) and Agricultural Partners International.

International Economic Associations

Donovia participates extensively in OPEC as an observer state. It participates in other international economic associations, especially those that involve oil and gas discussions. Thus, it follows a somewhat independent pricing model from OPEC, and is quick to play up the independence of Donovian pricing and its ability to secure its oil and gas exports in an effort to gain supplier contracts. Once both sides agree to a contract, the Donovians will use the leverage to gain political and economic concessions in other areas, such as support for Donovian diplomatic initiatives or Donovian corporations’ access to foreign markets.

Military Alliances

Where possible, Donovia continues to develop military alliances, initiate agreements, and distribute influence around the world, especially with its close neighbors. Donovia attempts to leverage economic relationships into military and diplomatic ones, and vice versa. Donovia couples military sales with offers of training and military advising, using the presence of Donovian “boots on the ground” to grant itself equities. Donovia then uses this equity to justify further political/military access and control in foreign countries, or at least accommodation of Donovian economic concerns. The Donovian government often uses military sales as a loss-leader in order to get its foot in the door to further the overall Donovian political/military/economic strategy. However, Donovia is not interested in patronage relationship. National policy remains largely transactional aimed at expanding arms sales and other Donovian economic interests.

Military relations with Olvana have been growing through exchange of liaison officers, exchange students in professional development courses, and bi-annual exercises involved land forces, maritime forces, and air forces.

Influential Political Groups

The Unionist Democratic Party serves as the country’s prime political party. While three of the other four main parties (Donovian League, Freedom and Justice, and the Scarlet Party) are nominally independent, they are actually outgrowths of the UD’s attempt to portray Donovia as a Western-style democracy. The New Donovia Party (NDP) is the only true opposition party, but its political power is highly truncated by the actions of the UD.

Official Political Parties

The UD serves as the country’s major domestic political party. It directs three other parties that, while they claim their independence, in reality are staffed with former UD loyalists and in many cases are funded covertly by the UD, to present the façade of a multiparty system. The NDP serves as the country’s prime opposition political party, operating completely unaffiliated from the UD and attempting to shed light on UD abuses and corruption. Recently, the NDP started to receive some significant support from elements within the military and additional support through social media and the Internet. Some proof of UD or government corruption and graft now reaches the Internet, which forces the government to either disavow the corruption or face the argument of its connivance in corrupt practices. At the national level, the UD’s leaders demonstrate a willingness to throw those caught to the political wolves, if necessary, to prevent the allegations from coming upon themselves. At the local level, the UD often acts with a much more heavy-handed response, with reports of suspicious deaths for those who report governmental misconduct.

As indicated previously, three additional political parties—Donovian League, Freedom and Justice, and the Scarlet Party—participate in the government and operate officially unaligned. All three parties contain small numbers of elected positions at the national legislative level, with members often appointed to positions in the several republics. These three parties, however, remain window dressing for the UD, which they actually support.

Other Domestic Influential Groups

Outside of the UD, the most influential domestic political groups include the National Veterans Association (NVA), the Environmental Donovia Association, and Human Rights of Donovia Campaign. All of these organizations lobby the legislature and attempt to raise public awareness for their projects. The Donovian government often uses the NVA to “test the waters” for potential changes in foreign policy and military affairs, as the NVA maintains significant links to the active Donovian military.

The Donovian Orthodox Christian Church wields much domestic influence within Donovia West, and its churches throughout the Baltic States and the GBCC countries. In the past two decades, the UD leadership has worked extensively to tie the Church into the patriotic fabric of the country. As a result, Church leaders are present and highly visible at all public events, especially patriotic parades and rallies, government policy announcements, and international gatherings.

There is broad political support for a wide range of Donovian Orthodox Christian nationalist organizations, such as youth leagues, language clubs that support Donovian language education, and the like. The UD often uses these organizations to support its political goals and broadcast the overall political message that merges UD and Donovian state agendas. Indeed, UD party personnel often man many of these organizations, which are funded by state or UD money, or private individuals, despite their status as single-issue or advocacy organizations. Some funding may come from transnational organized crime groups, but needs more investigation from international law enforcement.

Political: Donovia West

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