Caucasus: Events

What follows are tables of 77 fictional events across various areas throughout the countries of Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria, in the Caucasus region. These events demonstrate possible ways the conditions of the OE described in Section 2 might play out on the ground. Each event is tied to the mission essential task list (METL) to clearly show the tactical-level connection between the event, its related activities, and possible OE variable conditions.

Analysts derived these events from realistic yet fictional potential activities that could easily take place in any of the countries in the Caucasus region. Many of the events could apply to more than one country within the region. Additionally, the events collectively have effects for all variables in  the OE: political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time.

Each event is listed at the top of the table, with three to four potential related activities, and their likely OE variable conditions, following. The bottom of each table lists the linked METL tasks. The chart was designed to be clear, yet thorough. Events were analyzed to ensure that the details of each variable in Section 2 supported the possibility of the event, and that each event required a tactical intervention, making it useful to units in training.

Although the events below were intended for use with DATE Caucasus, most are relevant to the other DATEs. A revision will be made during FY19 to ensure that there are events covering conditions found within specific OEs.

Insurgents Demand UN Dismissal

1.   Related Activity	Aid workers are abducted in a refugee camp near the capital.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Kidnappers issue a message to the government to release its members in prison in exchange for the workers’ safe return. Insurgents start attacking refugee camp, creating fear among refugees and residents in nearby towns.
2.  Related Activity	A convoy carrying aid workers back to the capital is ambushed and all workers are killed.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	US and its allies are forced to provide assistance with security for aid workers. The population wants the government to drive insurgents out of their villages so they can continue to receive aid.
3.  Related Activity	Numerous aid agencies leave the country.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political o     Political & Military	internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees will suffer greatly because they depended on the agencies’ aid for survival. The government is scrutinized for not protecting aid workers. Insurgents will continue to attack and kill aid workers in order to send all their agencies home. They will try to use the same tactic with US forces and its allies in hopes to drive them out of the country.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Insurgent Forces Target Civilian Population while in US Uniforms

1.   Related Activity	International media widely publicizes civilian casualties.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	US Forces blamed. Enemy perception management operations are effective in portraying American “crimes” through immediate release of “evidence.”
2.  Related Activity	US Forces are required to pair with host nation forces.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Commander must support host nation forces. US forces must be supported by host nation forces due to revised status of forces agreement (SOFA).
3.   Related Activity	Deconfliction and monitoring of US Forces limits mobility and reaction time.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	US Forces unable to proactively patrol and operate. Threat forces capable to predicting US movement.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 2.4 Provide Intelligence Support to Targeting and Information-Related Capabilities ART 2.4.1 Provide Intelligence Support to Targeting ART 2.4.2 Provide Intelligence Support to Information-Related Capabilities ART 2.4.3 Provide Intelligence Support to Combat Assessment ART 2.3.4.3 Support Site Exploitation ART 6.11.2.3 Conduct Technical Assessments of Unexploded Explosive Ordnance; Improvised Explosive Devices; and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and High-Yield Explosives Hazards

Avalanche Bisects Main Supply Route

1.   Related Activity	Hundreds of people are buried under the snow after an avalanche near the main mountain pass at the northern border.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Infrastructure	Government is putting a response team together and asking help from its northern neighbor. The pass (including the long tunnel) is completely destroyed and has to be rebuilt.
2.  Related Activity	Military US assistance is requested.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Social	The local military will bring medical assistance and food and water to those stranded on the road. Local governments are helping the military and local population identify those in the accident and alert their loved ones.
3.  Related Activity	The rescue team may take time to arrive, leading to more deaths.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political & Infrastructure	The locals are blaming the population for not getting the rescue team in the area sooner. The government is blamed for not putting more money into the roads infrastructure and providing better roads.
4.  Related Activity	US military forces will have to find other routes.
Possible Variable Conditions	o  Military	The US military may be forced to rely on the local government and military while it finds other safe supply routes.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support ART 4.1.3.11.1 Purify Water ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.1 Provide Combat Casualty Care ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

Biological Attack on Agriculture

1.   Related Activity	Receive reports of total crop failure throughout host nation.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social	Food shortages, no longer able to export agricultural goods. Shipping industry affected. Criminal elements take over food storage, charge inflated prices to population.
2.  Related Activity	Host national isolates areas affected, no movement in or out.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure & Economic o     Social	Roads throughout country closed, shuts down interstate commerce. Travelers are stranded. Families gather outside roadblocks looking for family members from affected areas.
3.   Related Activity	Influx of NGOs in area.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Government unable to sustain displaced personnel; loses legitimacy. Criminal elements see NGOs as competition, attack and rob NGO supply.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management ART 6.8.4.1 Respond to Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Incidents ART 7.4.2 Provide Support for Domestic Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Incidents ART 6.5.3 React to a Terrorist Incident
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Border Incidents Cause a Resumption of Hostilities Between Two Countries

1.   Related Activity	Long simmering problems between two countries along a mutual border erupt into a full scale war because of the border incidents that occur between the two sides.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Military	Both sides will generate Information Operations (IO) messages that place the blame for the resumption of hostilities on the other side. Both sides will use their militaries to resolve the conflict that will create massive property damage, death, and more IDPs/refugees.
2.  Related Activity	One or both will appeal to foreign countries for assistance.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Both sides will appeal for support to gain an advantage over the other side. Both sides will request and receive assistance from some foreign country. As a minimum, each country will likely receive arms from their allies.
3.   Related Activity	Conflict causes property damage.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Economic	Extensive property damage will occur that the country where the war takes place will need to repair in the future. The war reduces economic activity as citizens serve in the military and the war prevents cultivation.
4.  Related Activity	Combat generates IDPs/refugees.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Social	Rumors cause panic in the civilian population and this only increases the IDPs and forces some people to become refugees in neighboring countries. Many people will not care what side wins the Civil War just as long as the conflict ends and they can return to a “normal” life.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.1 Conduct a Movement to Contact ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 7.1.4 Conduct a Pursuit ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault ART 1.2.1.1 Conduct an Envelopment
	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Influential Businessman Arrested

1.   Related Activity	His factories are shut down.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social o     Political	Local unemployment rises. Illegal economic activity increases with a thriving black market. Criminal and gang elements profit from the situation and begin selling product that factory had produced to the population. Number of IDP rise as unemployed lose homes and migrate to find new jobs. Unemployed resentful of government for losing jobs.
2.  Related Activity	Looting occurs in shut down factories.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political o     Information	Local criminal and gang elements move in to take over situation and profit from items looted. Government unwilling to stop looting. Dissatisfaction with government rises in area, and government loses legitimacy. Groups benefiting from the unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” committed by government against businessmen.
3.   Related Activity	Local population riots, demanding release of businessman.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social/Time o     Infrastructure/ Time	Government unable to quell riots quickly, bystanders and protestors become causalities. Government loses legitimacy. Social unrest increases, rumors of assassination attempts on key leaders are widespread. Hospitals at capacity with malnourished and injured. Roads around factories and riots become clogged. Trash service stops, risk of disease rises over time.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.7 Provide Force Health Protection ART 6.7.1 Provide Preventive Medicine Support
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Country Attacks Ethnic Minority/Enemy with Chemical Weapons

1.   Related Activity	Country attacks an ethnic minority/enemy with chemical weapons.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military o     Information	Country must justify to the international community why they broke treaties that they signed that ban first use of chemical weapons. US/Coalition must decide whether to retaliate with their own chemical weapons. Aggressive IO campaigns. The side that will attempt to justify their actions. The recipient will portray the users of chemical weapons as inhumane.
2.  Related Activity	Chemical weapons damage the environment.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Economic	Persistent chemical agents make the use of some parts of the country uninhabitable for long lengths of time. Persistent chemical agents on hydrocarbon infrastructure hurt the targeted country financially as it cannot export oil or natural gas. Generates additional unemployment.
3.   Related Activity	Damage due to chemicals will need remediation.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Social/ Economic	Attacked country cannot use infrastructure until the persistent agent becomes inert. Unemployed workers will need a means of support and may protest the government’s inability to support them financially.
4.  Related Activity	International environmental groups will protest use of chemical weapons.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Attacked country may not allow known environmentalists to enter the country to protest. Environmentalists that get into the country to protest chemical warfare may encumber military operations.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 6.8 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations ART 6.8.2.1 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Interdiction Operations ART 6.8.2.3 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Elimination Operations ART 6.8.3.2 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Passive Defense ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management ART 6.8.3.1 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Active Defense
	ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management ART 6.8.4.1 Respond to Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Incidents ART 6.5.3 React to a Terrorist Incident

Civil War

1.   Related Activity	Civil War breaks out in a country.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political	Government forces fight for control against the anti- government foes. Both sides seek legitimacy from the people in the country.
2.  Related Activity	One side seeks foreign assistance in the Civil War.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	The other side will need to decide if they want to also request outside assistance. If one side does not seek outside assistance, they will craft an IO message that makes the conflict appear more than a Civil War and the other side as a proxy.
3.   Related Activity	Conflict causes property damage.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Economic	The Civil War causes extensive property damage that the “winners” will need to repair. The Civil War will make normal commerce difficult.
4.  Related Activity	Combat generates IDPs/refugees.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Social	Rumors about the invaders success cause panic in the civilian population and these only increase the IDPs and causes some people to become refugees in neighboring countries. People may not care what side wins the Civil War, as long as the conflict ends and they can return to a “normal” life.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.1 Conduct a Movement to Contact ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 7.1.4 Conduct a Pursuit ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault ART 1.2.1.1 Conduct an Envelopment
	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Counterfeiting Causes Massive Local Inflation

1.  Related Activity	Local unrest causes US forces to intervene.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	US Forces blamed for price hikes. Enemy perception management operations are effective in portraying American as causing price crisis.
2.  Related Activity	Costs for US forces rise significantly.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Military	Commander must support host nation forces wages. Changes to cost of local support require more discretionary funding.
3.   Related Activity	Demonstrations result in civilian casualties.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	US Forces must physically control crowds. US Commander must control information environment.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 6.13.2 Conduct Criminal Investigations ART 6.13.2 Conduct Criminal Investigations
	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement ART 7.3.2.3 Perform Host-Nation Police Training and Support

Country Closes Border and Disallows Muslims to Travel for the Hajj

1.   Related Activity	Government chooses to close their borders.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	The country’s government uses their military to enforce the ban. The country conducts an IO campaign to explain why their citizens should not travel to Mecca using the pretense of problems with the safety of tourists.
2.  Related Activity	Muslims protest the ban on travel to Mecca.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Military o     Economic	Muslims protest the decision to ban travel to Mecca. The government calls in military to counter any protest violence. Long protests may affect the country’s economy in a negative manner.
3.   Related Activity	Muslims choose to ignore the ban against travel to Mecca and go anyway.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Countries that the traveler crosses must deal with the Muslims without passports or with passports from the country that banned travel to Mecca. US/Coalition forces must decide what to do with Muslims that are found sneaking out of the country to attend the Hajj.
4.  Related Activity	Due to the decision to ban travel to Mecca, Muslim insurgents increase their attacks against government buildings and/or governmental leaders/workers.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure Military o     Physical Environment	Military personnel will need to provide additional security to key infrastructure. Attacks may cause temporary damage to the physical environment that will need mitigation.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 2.3 Conduct Information Collection ART 2.3.2 Direct Information Collection ART 2.4.2 Provide Intelligence Support to Information-Related Capabilities ART 7.5.30 Conduct Surveillance
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement ART 7.3.2 Establish Civil Control
	ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations ART 2.2.5.2 Conduct Police Information Analysis ART 2.2.5.4 Disseminate Police Information and Criminal Intelligence
	ART 6.4.4 Provide Protective Services for Selected Individuals ART 6.5 Apply Antiterrorism Measures ART 6.4.4 Provide Protective Services for Selected Individuals
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations

Country Nationalizes Foreign Companies/Assets

1.   Related Activity	Country decides to nationalize a company’s assets within their borders without any compensation or under market compensation for the assets.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military o     Economic	Foreign governments attempt to change the decision through non-military means. If non-military means do not work, institute a regime change unilaterally or within the directions of the UN, NATO, or other organization. Loss of assets pushes international companies close to bankruptcy or to close down.
2.  Related Activity	US uses military force to create a regime change.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	US military helps install a government that will reverse the previous decision or at least compensate the company’s owner for their losses. The US initiates an IO campaign on why they need to take military action to countermand the nationalization.
3.   Related Activity	A number of splinter groups in opposition to the US intervention in their country.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic	Dependent upon the effect of the intervention, local citizens will join organizations against the US involvement or support the US intervention. Dependent on the length and damage of the intervention, the people in the country could suffer huge economic losses.
4.  Related Activity	US may find the need to depart the country earlier than expected.
Possible Variable Conditions	o  Economic	Protection of the country’s hydrocarbon resources remains important. The incident may cause the country to stop selling hydrocarbon resources to the US.
Possible Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.1 Conduct a Movement to Contact ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 1.2.1.1 Conduct an Envelopment
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations Conduct Dislocated Civilian Resettlement (ART 4.4.3)
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3.1 Provide a Screen ART 6.6.3.2 Conduct Guard Missions ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security

Government Crackdown on Criminal Elements

1.   Related Activity	Police forces arrest criminal elements.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Crime as mainstay of society is threatened by government, causing equilibrium shift. Government authorities challenged by criminal group, tensions increase. Assassination attempts likely.
2.  Related Activity	Black market operations cease.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social	Shortage of fuel. Lower level criminals left vying for themselves. Criminal and insurgent elements begin compete for gap left in criminal network. Violence escalates as the groups attack each other.
3.   Related Activity	Criminal and insurgent elements begin compete for gap left in criminal network.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Government unable to quell violence quickly; loses legitimacy. Violence escalates as the groups attack each other.
4.  Related Activity	Civilians lock themselves away in homes to avoid violence on streets.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Time o     Economic o     Information	Lack water/food-riots as civilians won’t come out, starvation and disease set in if left too long. Markets shut down, workers will not report to work, including basic necessities such as garbage pick up. Groups benefiting from the unrest execute perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” occurring in the prisons.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Government Crackdown on Dissidents

1.   Related Activity	International community puts pressure on US to intervene.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	High intergroup conflict. Civil unrest is significant. US leaders attempt negotiations with local government.
2.  Related Activity	Demonstrations outside prisons and government buildings demanding release of dissidents.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Information	City roads are blocked with demonstrators. Vehicle traffic comes to a halt. Groups benefiting from the unrest execute perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” occurring in the prisons.
3.   Related Activity	Large contingent of International reporters, UN personnel and NGOs arrive to report on condition of detainees.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Agencies request US assistance in gaining access to local government and dissidents being held. Social unrest increases, government facilities are targeted with VBIEDs. Rumors of assassination attempts on key leaders are widespread.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 1.0 Conduct Maneuver and Mobility Support Operations ART 1.6 Conduct Mobility Operations
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

Cyber Attack

1.   Related Activity	One country launches a cyber attack on a neighboring country.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Social o     Political	Outside cyber attack shuts down the country’s servers and limits their citizens’ access to the Internet. Those citizens that normally communicate over the Internet become upset and accuse the government of a lack of action. Attacked country’s government must decide how to respond to the outside cyber attack. Their response may also affect other countries.
2.  Related Activity	Cyber attack affects commerce.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social	Cyber attack negatively affects enterprises that rely upon computers as they must find alternate means or wait until resolution to resume business. Many people will support either the new or old governments, but many others will remain fence- sitters as not to antagonize either side.
3.   Related Activity	Cyber attack affects military operations.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Cyber attack negatively affects modern military equipment that relies upon computers to operate. The attacked country may respond with military action against the supposed attacker.
4.  Related Activity	Mediation requires a large amount of resources.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Information	Attacked country will need to spend resources to clean up their computer networks to include computer hardware infrastructure. Attacked county may need to request assistance from computer experts outside their country to mediate the cyber attack’s effects.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.10.2.3 Conduct Cybersecurity ART 5.10.2.3.1 Identify Mission Critical Assets, Cyber Threats, and Vulnerabilities ART 5.10.2.3.2 Protect Networks, Information Systems, and Data
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.5.5 Support Host-Nation Telecommunications Infrastructure Reconstruction Program
	ART 5.3 Conduct Knowledge Management and Information Management ART 5.3.3 Manage Information and Data ART 5.10.2 Perform Department of Defense Information Network Operations ART 5.9.3 Conduct Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations

Group Blows Up Dam

1.   Related Activity	Rain and/or snow melt causes severe floods that devastate an area.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Infrastructure o     Political	Government will need to demonstrate that they are in control and will secure other dams with military personnel to prevent similar incidents. Government will need to replace dam or at least the power generated by the dam. Government may need to obtain power from other countries in the region.
2.  Related Activity	Any factories that received power will need to find a substitute.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social	Until the factory or factories find an alternate power source, the factory will need to close down. This will generate a loss of income and increase unemployment. Out of work factory workers protest to demand additional unemployment benefits, another job, or the immediate reopening of the business.
3.   Related Activity	Water from dam causes severe flooding.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Information	Floods damage farmlands and destroy crops. People cannot feed themselves, yet alone sell crops to live. Government must launch an IO campaign to mitigate rumors about the government’s role in the prevention and/or remediation of the floods.
4.  Related Activity	Floods damage oil rigs on land and cause massive pollution.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Social/ Political	Oil Company must plug oil leak. Oil Company and government must clean up damage caused by the oil spill. International environmental protests the pollution and rallies the people against the damage due to the government’s speed in cleaning up the damage.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 4.1.7 Provide General Engineering Support ART 4.1.7 Provide General Engineering Support ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground)
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management

Dangerous Detainees (Insurgents) Escape from Maximum Security Prison

1.   Related Activity	It is suspected that the escape was an inside job.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political o     Political	Government asks assistance from the military in search of the detainees. Some government officials are accused of working with the insurgents and placing their own people to work in the prison. The director of jail and some other workers are fired.
2.  Related Activity	Stores, schools and government are vandalized.
Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure & Social o     Social	The population must use their own savings for the repairs. Fear running among residents in capital and the situation prompts the government to issue curfews in some area of the capital.
3.  Related Activity	Military forces are brought in to provide more security and help with the investigation.
Possible Variable Conditions	o  Political	The government is being criticized for the lack of security and there are talks of giving control of the maximum security prison back to US forces.
4.  Related Activity	One of the detainees is captured when his suicide vest failed to go off.
Possible Variable Conditions	o  Time & Political	The government with military assistance is working with the local and doing everything in its power to find the rest of the escapes before they regroup and try to commit suicide attacks.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security

Dirty Bomb Detonates in Market Area

1.   Related Activity		Ethnic insurgent group claims responsibility.
Possible Variable Conditions		o     Social o     Political		High intergroup conflict. Civil unrest is significant. Government authorities challenged by insurgent group, tensions increase.
2.  Related Activity			Market area closed.
Possible Variable Conditions		o     Economics o     Social o     Infrastructure		Market area closed, population unable to go to work, trade or purchase goods. Anxiety levels of population go up, large numbers flee the city raising number of IDPs in rural area. Hospitals overrun with exposed population, water shut down for fear of contamination.
3.   Related Activity			Host nation requests assistance from US for decontamination operations.
Possible Variable Conditions		o     Political o     Social		Government unable to clean up quickly; loss of legitimacy. IDP/refugees lack water/food, criminal and insurgent groups begin selling water and food to the population.
4.  Related Activity		Messages broadcast that it will happen again if current government does not step down.
Possible Variable Conditions		o     Social o     Information		IDPs riot, demanding government step down. Groups benefiting from the unrest execute perception management campaign highlighting the incompetence of the current regime and the damage that will occur if they do not release power.
Possible METL Tasks	Related	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
		ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management ART 6.8.4.1 Respond to Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Incidents ART 7.4.2 Provide Support for Domestic Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Incidents ART 6.5.3 React to a Terrorist Incident
		ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
		ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

US Embassy Seized by Dissidents

1.   Related Activity	Ø Dissident group overruns foreign Embassy and takes personnel hostage.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political o     Military	Ø High intergroup conflict. Civil unrest is significant. Ø Government authorities challenged by dissident group, tensions increase. Ø Evacuates all other personnel and facilities related to foreign embassy.
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Military put on standby for rescue mission if diplomatic means fail.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Time	Ø US Military on ground coordinate/advise HN security forces. Ø HN Government unable to quickly react. The longer they take, the more complex a rescue becomes.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Crowds gather outside embassy.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø Government unable to quell riots quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Dissident group executes a well-developed perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” committed by the US and HN.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.5 Conduct Tactical Mission Tasks ART 7.5.24 Secure a Unit, Facility, or Location ART 7.5.17 Follow and Support the Actions of a Friendly Force
	ART 7.6.2 Conduct Limited Interventions ART 7.6.2.1 Perform Noncombatant Evacuation Operations
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 7.3.2.3 Perform Host-Nation Police Training and Support

Drought Causes Food Shortage in Friendly Country

1.   Related Activity	A country or countries crops fail.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Infrastructure	Ø Due to famine conditions, country or countries begin to petition neighboring country for food products. Ø  Rail system has been damaged by insurgency, making bulk food deliveries impossible without repairs. Ø Alternate transportation for bulk goods is heavily influenced by organized crime.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Food shortage may lead to starvation.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic	Ø As the people get more desperate for food, they will pressure their government with increasing violence. Ø People will turn more to the black market to feed their families. Ø Organized crime will experience a boost in profits and influence.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  More people will grow their own food to deal with the shortages.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Infrastructure o     Physical Environment	Ø Some people will attempt to move to rural areas as a means to find food. Ø In the cities, people will plant small gardens to provide their own food, may cause added pollution. Ø Long-term damage to arable land may occur Ø Water access may be barricaded, impromptu irrigation attempts may divert rivers and streams.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance ART 5.15.3 Support Civil Administration
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

Earthquake

1.   Related Activity	Ø Massive earthquake hits area and causes massive destruction and large loss of life.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social o     Infrastructure	Ø Government will need to respond to the situation and decide whether to request foreign aid. Ø Citizens will want their government to take care of their immediate needs and to rebuild their homes. Ø Damaged infrastructure will need replacement. Cleanup remains necessary to avoid the outbreak of disease.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Local military and/or NGOs will respond with assistance.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Military	Ø Victims will require minimum standard of living in regards to food, water, and shelter. Ø Military will provide rescue teams, medical assistance, temporary shelter, and food/water to victims.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Economy will suffer due to the earthquake’s effects.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economy o     Information & Infrastructure	Ø The economy will not return to a resemblance of normalcy until the people can obtain permanent housing and businesses reopen. Ø As most rural areas rely upon cell phones for communication, people will lose means of communication outside the local area.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Earthquake may overextend the government’s limited financial resources.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Political	Ø For some countries, the governments will craft a message that will play to foreign audiences to attract both governmental and individual financial aid to recover from the earthquake. Ø The government’s response to the disaster may play a major role in whether the current regime stays in power.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support ART 4.1.3.11.1 Purify Water ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

Countries Conduct a Food Embargo Against Another Country

1.   Related Activity	Ø A country or countries decide to embargo food products to another country.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø Due to the political situation, country or countries decide to embargo a neighboring country of all products to include food. Ø The government(s) will need to craft a message to the rest of the world of the embargo’s legitimacy and that all nations should join the embargo.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Food shortage may lead to starvation.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic	Ø As the people get more desperate for food, they will pressure their government to give in to the countries that enacted the embargo so they will not starve to death. Ø People will turn more to the black market to feed their families.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  More people will grow their own food to deal with the shortages.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Infrastructure o     Physical Environment	Ø Some people will return to their rural roots as a means to stave off starvation. Ø In the cities, people will plant small gardens to provide their own vegetables. Ø Violent riots may cause environmental damage that the government will need to address.
4.  Related Activity	Ø The affected government will appeal to other countries for support and call for an end to the embargo.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Military	Ø The affected country will produce a message of unfairness and that other countries should provide food for humanitarian purposes. Ø If the affected country becomes desperate enough, they may choose to use military action against their neighbors that enacted the embargo against them.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance ART 5.15.3 Support Civil Administration
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

Country Stops Energy/Power Exports

1.   Related Activity	Ø Country bans the export of crude oil, natural gas, or electricity to other countries.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Information	Ø The boycott creates an energy shortage for countries that cannot produce enough energy from their own resources. Ø Country launches an information operations campaign that places the blame for their boycott on the actions of an outside country and not themselves.
2.  Related Activity	Ø In consumer countries, people face energy shortages that become especially difficult in winter months.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Physical Environment	Ø Citizens in user countries demand that their government acquiesce to the producer country’s demands so they will start the flow of energy again. Ø Without electricity or natural gas to heat their houses in the winter, people will burn whatever they can find. This will lead to deforestation in the effected countries.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Consumer countries may consider military action before they run out of petroleum for their military.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø Consumer countries will need to consider their options and military action could result. Ø Consumer countries may mobilize their forces as a threat to make the producer country with a weaker military restart energy exportation.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Lack of energy causes industries in consumer countries to shut down.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Infrastructure	Ø Consumer country cannot produce goods for either internal consumption or export that effect the economy negatively. Ø Lack of electricity means consumer countries must mothball plants and when power does return, it may require additional resources to bring them back on line.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 4.1 Provide Logistics Support ART 4.1.7 Provide General Engineering Support
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Insurgent Group Seize Control of Key Urban Area Requiring U.S. Army Response

1.   Related Activity	Ø Ethnic insurgent group with local support seize “ethnically pure” district of a major port city.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø High intergroup conflict. Civil unrest is significant. Ø Government authorities challenged by insurgent group, tensions increase. Assassination attempts likely.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Insurgent group cut off power to the city (including U.S.-utilized port) from electricity transfer station located in seized district. Other utilities begin cascade failure.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Time	Ø Widespread power outages lead to increased criminal activities and social unrest. Ø Government unable to quickly recover from the outage. Criminal and insurgent elements begin to work in concert, claiming they will soon be able to supply electricity and other utilities to the population.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Riots break out due to lack of utilities. Host nation requests support from U.S. forces.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø Government unable to quell riots quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Social unrest increases, government facilities are targeted with VBIEDs. Rumors of assassination attempts on key leaders are widespread.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Already-present IDPs and refugees aggravate over-stressed basic services. Lack of access to water and food increases tension and previously quiet groups begin to demand assistance from the government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic o     Information	Ø IDP/refugees lack water/food-riots increase. Ø Illegal economic activity increases with a thriving black market. Criminal and gang elements attempt to profit from the situation and begin selling water and food to the population. Ø Groups benefiting from the unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” occurring in the IDP camps.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

IRBM Attack on US Forces

1.   Related Activity	Ø Destruction of critical infrastructure.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Infrastructure	Ø Host nation support evaporates. Ø Irreplaceable infrastructure unavailable.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Fear within population creates movement.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Information	Ø Population movement renders MSRs impassable. Ø Government appears incapable of handling situation.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Survival dispersion and attack remediation limits host nation support.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Economic	Ø US Forces required for remediation. Ø Population movement renders critical industries inoperative.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Destruction or Degradation of host nation and US critical command and control assets.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Military	Ø US will be required to remediate attack’s impacts on country. Ø  US Forces will be required to relocate away from civilian areas.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.8 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations ART 6.8.2.1 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Interdiction Operations ART 6.8.2.2 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Offensive Operations ART 6.8.2.3 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Elimination Operations
	Joint ST 6.1 Provide Theater Aerospace and Missile Defense Joint ST 6.1.4 Organize and Coordinate Theater Air Defense Joint ST 6.1.5 Organize and Coordinate Theater Missile Defense Joint ST 6.1.7 Conduct Ballistic Missile Defense Operations
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Violence Creates Additional IDPS or Refugees

1.   Related Activity	Ø Any type of armed conflict, whether from a Civil War, an insurgency, or due to a foreign invasion will create additional IDPs or refugees.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø Civilians will flee the combat zone for safer places away from combat either inside the country or to a neighboring country. Ø Government must determine solutions to deal with the IDPS and neighboring countries must find solutions to the refugees that cross into their country.
2.  Related Activity	Ø IDPs and refugees will require resources to prevent excess suffering.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Economic	Ø Governments or NGOs must provide temporary shelter (tents or buildings) to house IDPs/refugees created by the conflict. Ø The government/NGOs must provide food and water to take care of the IDPs/refugees immediate needs and reduce dependency on outside agencies for support.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Movement of large numbers of IDPs/refugees may interfere with military operations.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	Ø The military will need to provide resources to divert IDPs/refugees from the Main Supply Routes (MSR) that support the units. Ø The military will need to inform the IDPs/refugees of routes and camps where they can receive assistance.
4.  Related Activity	Ø The time of the conflict could increase or decrease resources needed to take care of the IDPs/refugees.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Physical Environment o     Social	Ø In winter months, the IDPs/refugees will require better shelter than in the warmer months. Ø In summer months in very hot climates, IDPs/refugees will require greater amounts of potable water. Ø Once the IDPs/refugees possess the basic necessities they will begin to demand more and many will want to return to their homes.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support ART 4.1.3.11.1 Purify Water ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Floods Wash Away Homes

1.   Related Activity	Ø Floods caused by heavy rains in spring wash away homes and refugees’ shelters.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Military o     Physical Environment	Ø Those living in and around the refugee camps are left homeless. Ø Military working with the government to evacuate those stranded in remote areas. Ø The rising waters have caused extensive damage to farmland.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Potential disease outbreak.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Social	Ø Worsening sanitary condition may lead to disease outbreak, causing more death and spreading fear. Ø The shortage of clean water, food, and shelters has left many at risk of lethal water borne diseases such as cholera.
3.  Related Activity	Ø Survivors’ frustration increasing.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political & Infrastructure o     Political	Ø People are frustrated because of the government slow response to restore public service and shelter. Ø Insurgents will use the frustration in their favor by explaining that the government is unable to take care of its citizens.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support ART 4.1.3.11.1 Purify Water ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics

Lethal Virus Spreads throughout the Caucasus Region

1.   Related Activity	Ø Thousands of people become infected with the virus and fall ill.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Infrastructure o     Social	Ø Health care budgets are overextended to provide care to sick patients. Ø Hospitals and clinics are overcrowded, causing many patients to be turned away. Ø The elderly and infants die.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Host nation government asks for aid from the US and NGOs.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political & Social o     Information	Ø Host nation government loses the confidence of the population for failing to prepare for or adequately handle the crisis on its own. Ø Host nation government must inform populace of its efforts to provide care.
3.  Related Activity	Ø Rural populations in particular suffer due to limited access to health care services compared to the urban population.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political & Economic	Ø Rural citizens plead for health care services to be brought to them. Ø The government must consider options to improve health care services.
4.  Related Activity	Ø So many deaths draw international attention to the region; distraught citizens flood hospitals and protest the government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Political	Ø The government must work with the US and others to receive health care assistance and initiate vaccination programs to prevent future epidemics.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security

Ethnic Group Attempts Genocide against another Ethnic Group

1.   Related Activity	Ø Ethnic groups attempt to ethnic cleanse a village, town, city, or area of a minority.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø Targeted group fears persecution and becomes upset with the government’s failure to protect them. Ø Government must arrive at a solution that keeps outside countries from intervention unless requested.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Related diaspora along with civil rights activists will pressure the UN, NATO, or other countries to intervene to stop the ethnic cleansing.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø Foreign governments must determine their courses of action and whether to become involved in another’s country’s internal situation. Ø The government and other countries must determine how much force to use to prevent future ethnic cleansing by the dominant ethnic group.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Ethnic cleansing destroys the homes and businesses of the minority.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Infrastructure	Ø The destruction of their businesses may drive minorities out of business. Ø The ethnic cleansing will destroy houses and businesses owned by the oppressed minority group that will require additional resources to rebuild.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Ethnic cleansing will generate additional IDPs.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Infrastructure o     Information	Ø Many of the oppressed minority will flee their homes and go to safer locations inside their own country or a neighboring country creating IDPs or refugees. Ø The IDPs and refugees will need places to live and will need resources to survive. Ø Lack of a government’s action will cause condemnation by other countries and by civil rights activists that will put pressure on the government to end the ethnic cleansing.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 7.1.4 Conduct a Pursuit ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Organized Crime Group Hijacks Airplane of Government Officials, Threatens Host Nation Government

Event	Organized Crime Group Hijacks Airplane of Government Officials, Threatens Host Nation Government
1.   Related Activity	Ø Air defense units put on alert.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø High intergroup conflict. Civil unrest is significant. Ø Government authorities challenged by criminal group, tensions increase.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Neighborhoods around government buildings put on alert.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Political	Ø Business shut down in cities. Ø Government shuts down, evacuates personnel.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Host nation requests US military assistance.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø Government unable to protect its officials; loses legitimacy. Ø Social unrest increases, fear and panic, blame placed on perceived supporters of insurgent group.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Local Army Helicopter Shot Down by Insurgents

1.   Related Activity	Ø Host nation army responds with air support.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political	Ø Host nation military is able to scare off the insurgents. Ø Government authorities challenged by insurgent group, tensions increase. Assassination attempts likely.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Insurgent group uses this as a threat. Uses INFOWAR to tell the locals that their government and military are weak.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø HN government must counter the insurgent’s message and show the people that the insurgent is wrong. Ø Locals are frightened by the show of power by the insurgents and begin to question their government’s ability to protect them and keep the peace.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Host nation government request assistance from US to stage a defense against insurgents against further attacks.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political & Military o     Social	Ø Government unable to amass enough troops throughout the area due to low numbers; requests assistance from US forces. Ø Social unrest increases. Locals are made uneasy by the troops throughout the area.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Insurgents capitalize on social unrest through continued use of INFOWAR tactics, reminding the people that their government can’t handle the situation on its own, and as soon as US troops leave, the insurgents threaten to strike again.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political & Information	Ø Locals are frightened by the threats from the insurgents, begin questioning their government. Ø The government attempts to quell the anxiety and to ensure the people that they are safe. Messages are sent through TV and radio messages, primarily.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

High Gas Prices Cause Civilian Unrest

1.   Related Activity	Ø Due to a political or military situation, there is a drastic increase in gasoline prices that make it impossible for the average person to survive.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social o     Social/ Political	Ø High gas prices cause the products of all goods to increase as transportation and production costs rise. Ø People begin to conduct protests against the government due to the high cost of gasoline and the inability of the average person to purchase it. Ø People will pressure the government to subsidize gasoline, but this will only cause additional economic pressure on the government.
2.  Related Activity	Ø The lack of gasoline will hurt the economy.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Economic	Ø Some city dwellers will not use their vehicles and that could lead to a short-term improvement in local air quality. Ø The lack of gasoline may reduce crop yields. It will become more difficult for farmers to get their crops to the market.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  People stage protests against high gasoline prices.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Social	Ø Both sides use all media outlets to distribute their key talking points. Ø People may lose faith in the current government for their inability to keep gasoline prices affordable.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Protests against high gasoline prices may become violent.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political o     Infrastructure	Ø The government may use the military to quell the protests. Ø The protests may lead to the fall of the current government or to a Civil War. Ø Violent protests lead to property damage that the government or private person must eventually repair.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement
	ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations ART 2.2.5.1 Collect Police Information ART 2.2.5.2 Conduct Police Information Analysis ART 2.2.5.4 Disseminate Police Information and Criminal Intelligence
	ART 6.10.2 Counter the Threat ART 7.5.31.1 Conduct Counterintelligence

Dissidents Attack Government Information Systems

1.   Related Activity	Ø Dissidents hacked into government systems, including infrastructure.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø High intergroup conflict. Civil unrest is significant. Ø Government authorities challenged by dissidents, tensions increase.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Dissidents seize TV broadcast studio.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Time	Ø Dissident messages degrade government legitimacy. Ø Government unable to quickly recover studio. Dissident broadcasts incite population against government.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Host national requests US assistance in regaining control of missile C2.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Political	Ø Government potentially loses legitimacy, if word gets out that it has lost control of missile systems. Ø Dissidents make demands in exchange for releasing control back to government.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Dissidents jam all radio transmissions.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø Government loses credibility when cannot maintain communication with population. Ø Dissidents execute a well-developed perception management campaign highlighting “atrocities” occurring in the IDP camps.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.10.2.3 Conduct Cybersecurity ART 5.10.2.3.1 Identify Mission Critical Assets, Cyber Threats, and Vulnerabilities ART 5.10.2.3.2 Protect Networks, Information Systems, and Data
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 7.3.5.5 Support Host-Nation Telecommunications Infrastructure Reconstruction Program

Host Nation Requests Border Security Assistance

1.   Related Activity	Ø Border police duties bring US Forces into direct contact with criminal elements.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Information	Ø US Forces blamed decrease in smuggling revenues. Ø Enemy perception management operations are effective in portraying American “crimes” through immediate release of “evidence.”
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Forces are forced into manpower intensive operations.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Ø Commander must support host nation forces. Ø US Forces must be supported by host nation forces due to revises SOFA.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Deconfliction and monitoring of US Forces limits mobility and reaction time.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	Ø US Forces unable to proactively patrol and operate. Ø Threat forces capable to predicting US movement.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement ART 7.3.2 Establish Civil Control
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management

US Troops Find Evidence of Human Rights Violations

1.   Related Activity	Ø US Leaders meet with local authorities.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø US leaders’ cultural awareness will affect results of meetings. Ø Government authorities challenged by ethnic minorities.
2.  Related Activity	Ø International press, Red Cross and UN authorities arrive in area in large numbers.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Economic	Ø Extra foreigners with money take over taxi, truck and bus system, stranding day-to-day users. Frustration rises. Ø Illegal economic activity increases with a thriving black market. Criminal and gang elements attempt to profit from the situation and begin to cater to foreign press. Ø Legitimate industry suffers due to loss of transportation.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  IDPs and refugees riot in protest of government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social Ø  Information	Ø Government unable to quell riots quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Social unrest increases, government facilities are targeted with VBIEDs. Rumors of assassination attempts on key leaders are widespread. Ø Groups benefiting from the unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” occurring in the IDP camps
4.  Related Activity	Ø SAF and IED attacks on foreigners.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø Population resents outsiders. Ø Government loses international standing for lack of security in area.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 5.15.3 Support Civil Administration
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 7.3.2.6 Support Human Rights Initiatives ART 7.3.2.7 Support War Crimes Courts and Tribunals

Drug Trafficking Increases to Epidemic Proportions

1.   Related Activity	Ø Drug trafficking increases in a country due to a rise in the number of users.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information o     Social	Ø Government decides if the costs of drug law enforcement outweigh the positive results of reduced drug use. Ø The government launches an Information Operations (IO) campaign against illegal drugs. Ø Lack of access to medical care cause people to turn to illegal drugs to dull their pain.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Criminal activity increases due to drug use.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social o     Military	Ø The drug trade funds many criminal organizations’ activities. Ø People turn to petty crime to pay for their drug habits. Ø The government may use the military to assist in drug eradication programs.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  More people become involved in the drug trade.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Infrastructure	Ø More farmers will stop producing food crops to grow the illegal substances. Ø To finance their habit, drug users will cannibalize anything of value that they can sell (pipes, wire, etc.). This reduces the efficiency of the country’s utilities.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Other countries become involved in the anti-drug trafficking efforts.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Economic	Ø Due to the effects on their own country, other countries may assist in anti-drug eradication efforts to eliminate the drugs at the source instead of to interdict the drugs in transit. Ø As drug trafficking provides much income to many people, governments fear extreme efforts to end the drug trade will cause more problems than it solves.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement ART 7.3.2.3 Perform Host-Nation Police Training and Support
	ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations ART 2.2.5.1 Collect Police Information ART 2.2.5.2 Conduct Police Information Analysis ART 2.2.5.4 Disseminate Police Information and Criminal Intelligence
	ART 6.10.2 Counter the Threat ART 7.5.31.1 Conduct Counterintelligence

Insurgents Take Over Main Local Radio

1.   Related Activity	Ø Insurgent group takes journalist hostages and forces the radio to broadcast its messages.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information & Political o     Social	Ø The local military is mobilized and a rescue team is put in place. Ø The radio is forced to broadcast insurgent messages and warns the population to not trust the government. Ø The population is in fear after the insurgents warn of harsh punishment if their rules are not followed.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Journalists who refuse to comply with insurgents are killed.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Social and Information	Ø Fearing for their workers’ lives, other local radios close and send everyone home, leaving everyone in the dark about the current situation.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Fire fight breaks out between insurgents and rescue team.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Time	Ø Rescue mission takes few hours to be executed as the local government had to bring in teams with experience in hostage situations. Ø Finding themselves outnumbered and out of time, the insurgents killed all their hostages and themselves in a suicide attack.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.10.2.3 Conduct Cybersecurity ART 5.10.2.3.1 Identify Mission Critical Assets, Cyber Threats, and Vulnerabilities
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 7.3.5.5 Support Host-Nation Telecommunications Infrastructure Reconstruction Program

Belligerent Country Invades Another Country to Seize Hydrocarbon Assets

1.   Related Activity	Ø Aggressor country invades neighboring country to seize their petroleum or natural gas assets.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political	Ø Invaded country mobilizes their military forces to defend themselves from the invaders. Ø Invaded country requests support from their allies to defeat the invaders.
2.  Related Activity	Ø The belligerent country’s military physically seizes the other country’s hydrocarbon assets and the conflict reduces the worldwide availability of hydrocarbon resources.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Political	Ø Western nations face crude oil and natural gas shortages and an increase in prices for hydrocarbon resources from other countries. Ø The UN, NATO, and other Western defense alliances must decide how to respond to the situation.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Conflict causes food shortages.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic	Ø People protest the lack of food and its high cost. Ø People increase the use of the black market to feed their families.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Combat generates IDPs as the people in the path of the invaders flee to safer sections of the country.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Infrastructure o     Physical Environment	Ø Rumors about the invaders success cause panic in the civilian population and these only increases the IDPs and some people even flee to neighboring countries. Ø Conflict damages infrastructure that will require replacement. Ø Conflict has environment damage requiring mitigation.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 7.1.4 Conduct a Pursuit ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault ART 1.2.1.1 Conduct an Envelopment
	ART 3.2 Provide Fire Support ART 3.2.1 Employ Fires ART 3.1 Integrate Fires ART 3.2.2 Conduct Counterfire Operations
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.3 Intern United States Military Prisoners ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Belligerent Country Invades another Country to Seize Water Resources

1.   Related Activity	Ø An aggressor country invades another country to seize control of the vast quantities of water located there.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political	Ø Invaded country mobilizes their military forces to defend themselves from the invaders. Ø Invaded country requests support from their allies to defeat the invaders.
2.  Related Activity	Ø The belligerent country’s military physically seizes the other country’s main water sources.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Political	Ø Local civilians suffer due to a lack of water as the belligerent country diverts the water resources back to their home country. Ø The UN, NATO, and other Western defense alliances must decide how to respond to the situation.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Conflict causes water and food shortages.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic	Ø People protest the water shortage and the failure of their government to find solutions to the problem. Ø People increase black market use to obtain water for personal use, but farms suffer due to a water shortage.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Combat generates IDPs as the people in the path of the invaders flee to safer sections of the country.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Infrastructure o     Physical Environment	Ø Rumors about the invaders success cause panic in the civilian population and these only increases the IDPs and some people even flee to neighboring countries. Ø Conflict damages water transportation infrastructure and irrigation systems that will require replacement. Ø Conflict causes environmental damage that will require future mitigation.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 7.1.4 Conduct a Pursuit ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault ART 1.2.1.1 Conduct an Envelopment
	ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support ART 4.1.3.11.1 Purify Water ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.3 Intern United States Military Prisoners ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Journalists Arrested

1.   Related Activity	Ø Journalist critical of the government are arrested after they publish information connecting government officials and drug lords.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø The population riots and asks for the officials’ resignation. Ø Other journalists, also critical of the government start to receive threatening phone calls and emails.
2.  Related Activity	Ø A prominent journalist, a supporter of the opposition is killed in a suspicious car accident.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Political & Social	Ø The US urges the government to open an investigation and bring those responsible to justice. Ø The residents of the town are in a state of fear and blame the drug cartels and the government for the accident.
3.  Related Activity	Ø Drug cartels warning the media and locals to stay out of their business or suffer the ultimate consequences.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social & Political o     Information	Ø The government is blamed for not being able to protect its citizens and allowing corruption to continue. Ø More journalists unite and publish more on the connection between drug cartels and the government.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Journalists/Publishers are Jailed for Publishing Material with Alleged "Anti- Government" Sentiments

1.   Related Activity	Ø Community members protest outside of the office of the major newspaper in violation.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø News of the arrests and protests bring the matter to the attention of the general public. Ø Government authorities remain firm in their decision; give the people the message that such actions will not be tolerated.
2.  Related Activity	Ø One publication (a daily newspaper) writes an op-ed stating the arrests were unfair; the government then threatens to shut down the publication.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Military	Ø More protests ensue, causing public disturbances. Ø Troops are brought in to quell the public demonstrations.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Newspaper is shut down.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø Government establishes its authority, making it clear that everyone must publicly support the government. Ø The opposite affect is achieved, as people aren’t supportive of being told what to think and say. So, the government actually created more anti- government sentiment.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Anti-government sentiment grows and people begin to protest through other mediums.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Political & Economic o     Military	Ø Radio shows, TV shows, and internet sites decry the government’s actions. Ø The government reconsiders how to handle the situation, as shutting down all media will cause job losses and create a negative economic impact on society. Ø Government decides to call upon US military for assistance in a show of force to deter protesters.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Small Group of Residents of a Rural Town Begins a Nonreligious School for their Children Against the Norm for Rural Areas

1.   Related Activity	Ø Insurgents kidnap young students walking to non-religious schools.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political o     Military	Ø Conflict erupts among religious and nonreligious sectors of town. Residents begin to threaten each other. Ø Government authorities in more urban areas are contacted for assistance, as local government is too small to wield any power. Ø Troops are sent to the area for security and to search for the kidnapped children.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Insurgents send threatening letters to local parents to keep their kids from attending this school or they also will be kidnapped.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Time	Ø Parents are scared to the point that they send their kids back to the religious school. Ø Although more urban areas show Western leanings in their education systems, the more outwardly religious rural population is not ready for those ways of life.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Military troops locate kidnapped children, but the insurgents demand negotiations before returning them.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Social	Ø Because this rural insurgent group has limited access to technology, communication is restricted to phone calls. Ø Families of kidnapped children are terrified that their children were harmed, and place a lot of pressure on the military to return their children safely.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Children are returned safely after the parents promise to discontinue the school.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Social/Economic	Ø Parents are disheartened that they cannot give their children the same education as available in more urban areas. Ø Many of the children were ill from dehydration and other minor illnesses, requiring the parents to seek medical care.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Drug Bust on Border

1.   Related Activity	Ø A few thousand pounds of cocaine stored in multiple containers near the border are found by border police after a yearlong investigation.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Physical Environment	Ø Government is praised for the successful operation as this was a multi-agencies effort. Ø Due to harsh terrain in the region, drug traffickers are able to smuggle drugs through the area because security is low.
2.  Related Activity	Ø More operations are planned to reduce violence around the border and seize more drugs.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social & Economic o     Political	Ø Those who depended on the drug trade for survival will turn to other means to make money and support their families. Ø The government must allocate money to fund the operations.
3.  Related Activity	Ø Regional effort to reduce drug trade.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø Regional countries have joined to fight the drug trade and have put together teams in charge of enforcement. Ø The government will use the military in the operations.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement ART 7.3.2.3 Perform Host-Nation Police Training and Support
	ART 6.10.2 Counter the Threat ART 7.5.31.1 Conduct Counterintelligence
	ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations ART 2.2.5.1 Collect Police Information ART 2.2.5.2 Conduct Police Information Analysis ART 2.2.5.4 Disseminate Police Information and Criminal Intelligence

General(s) Launch Coup and Seize Control of Government

1.   Related Activity	Ø Military leaders conduct a coup and seize control of the primary government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø Citizens may or may not consider the new government legitimate. Ø New government will use all media to convince their people that the new government is legitimate.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Civil war may break out within the country.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Social	Ø Military forces loyal to both the old regime and the new government may fight to control the country. Ø Many people will support either the new or old governments, many others will remain fence-sitters.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Movement of large numbers of IDPs/refugees may interfere with military operations.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information o     Economy	Ø The military will need to provide resources to divert IDPs/refugees from the Main Supply Routes (MSR) that support the units. Ø The military will need to find methods to inform the IDPs/refugees of the routes they should take and camps where they can receive assistance. Ø IDPs/refugees cannot perform their normal occupations and will affect the economy negatively.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Foreign countries may decide to intervene in the conflict on one side or the other.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Physical Environment o     Social	Ø Foreign countries, the UN, and other defense organizations such as NATO will decide whether they need to become involved in the conflict. Ø In summer months in very hot climates, IDPs/refugees will require greater amounts of potable water. Ø Once the IDPs/refugees possess the basic necessities (food, water, and shelter), they will demand to return to their homes once the conflict ends.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support ART 4.1.3.11.1 Purify Water ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Neighboring Country Shuts Down Border to Commercial Traffic

1.   Related Activity	Ø International community puts pressure on US to intervene.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social/Time o     Political	Ø Population appeals to local government and aid organizations for help with heating fuel as winter approaches. Ø US leaders attempt negotiations with local governments.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Commercial traffic and Fuel trucks stopped at border.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Information	Ø Markets and gas stations close, due to shortage of goods and fuel. Ø Prices skyrocket. Ø Illegal economic activity increases with a thriving black market. Criminal and gang elements attempt to profit from the situation and begin selling fuel and other commodities to the population. Ø Neighboring country executes a well-developed perception management campaign highlighting that goods were going to NATO forces.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations ART 2.2.5.1 Collect Police Information ART 2.2.5.2 Conduct Police Information Analysis
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 7.3.2.3 Perform Host-Nation Police Training and Support
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance

Non-Muslims (Mainly Christians) are Targeted

1.   Related Activity	Ø Christian homes and churches are set on fire.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Social o     Military	Ø Churches that have been in the country for centuries are burned to the ground. Ø Christians live in fear and begin to protest and ask the government to provide protection. Ø The military is brought in to assist the police and stop the chaos.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Non-Muslims begin to flee the country in large numbers.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economy o     Social & Political	Ø The country’s economy may suffer as the Christian community brought in a lot of business. Ø Those fleeing the country are forced to go to neighboring countries, which in turn could lead to political complications with the refugee situation.
3.  Related Activity	Ø The government intervenes to persecute.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Political	Ø If the government decides to intervene, the majority (Muslims) will continue their actions in order to show that the government cannot protect all its citizens.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Nuclear Power Plant Computer Virus Causes Failure

1.   Related Activity		Y	Power outages begin.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions		o     Infrastructure o     Political		Ø Widespread power outages lead to increased criminal activities and social unrest. Ø Government authorities challenged by rival political groups, tensions increase.
2.  Related Activity		Ø Downwind radiation plume spreads.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions		o     Infrastructure o     Time o     Social		Ø Hospitals increase admissions to point of overload Ø Government unable to quickly recover from the outage. Criminal and insurgent elements begin to work in concert, claiming they will soon be able to supply electricity and other utilities to the population. Ø Number of IDP swells.
3.   Related Activity		Y	Riots break out due to lack of utilities and fear. Host nation requests support from U.S. forces.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions		o     Political o     Social		Ø Government unable to quell fears; loses legitimacy. Ø Social unrest increases, government facilities are targeted with VBIEDs. Rumors of assassination attempts on key leaders are widespread.
4.  Related Activity		Ø Already-present IDPs and refugees aggravate over-stressed basic services. Lack of access to water and food increases tension and previously quiet groups begin to demand assistance from the government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions		o     Social o     Economic o     Information		Ø IDP/refugees lack water/food-riots increase. Ø Illegal economic activity increases with a thriving black market. Criminal and gang elements attempt to profit from the situation and begin selling water and food to the population. Ø Groups benefiting from the unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” occurring in the IDP camps.
Possible METL Tasks	Related	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
		ART 4.1.7 Provide General Engineering Support ART 4.1.7.4 Supply Mobile Electric Power
		ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance
		ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Nuclear Power Plant Attacked and Damaged

1.   Related Activity	Ø Foreign military SOF attacks, damages production and containment of fission plant and successfully exfiltrates.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political o     Military	Ø Ethnically-centered demand for conflict. Civil unrest is significant. Ø Government authorities initially claim no threat to neighboring areas. Ø Attacked country begins mobilization of forces.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Third-nation detects radiation plume crossing into territory, demands immediate shut-down of plant.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Time o     Political	Ø Intermittent power outages lead to increased criminal activities and social unrest. Ø Leak continues to move, more detections of radiation in more neighboring countries. Ø Cascade of nations to call for action.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Third-nation mobilizes military, threatening force to shut down leaking plant.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political	Ø Cross-border RISTA begins. Ø International organizations become involved on behalf of both attacked country and contaminated countries
4.  Related Activity	Ø Fear of conflict causes people in border regions to displace.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic o     Information	Ø IDP/refugees lack water/food-riots increase. Ø Illegal economic activity increases with a thriving black market. Criminal and gang elements attempt to profit from the situation and begin selling water and food to the population. Ø Groups benefiting from the unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” occurring in the IDP camps.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 6.8 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management

Terrorists or Soldiers Attack a Caspian Sea Oil Platform

1.   Related Activity	Ø Terrorists or soldiers attack a Caspian Sea oil platform and forces it to shut down for an extended period of time.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Infrastructure	Ø Damage interrupts hydrocarbon exports that generate revenue for the country. Ø Government and/or oil/natural gas company must allocate funds to repair pipeline.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Pipeline destruction causes massive oil spill in the Caspian Sea.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Economic	Ø Massive oil spill requires international assistance to cleanup and mitigate damage from pollution. Ø Oil contaminates fish in the Caspian Sea and puts most fishermen out of business.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Oil futures market instability reduces revenue that the country uses to purchase food and the interruption in the Caspian Sea fish production causes people to face food shortages.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic	Ø People protest the lack of food and its high cost. Ø People increase the use of the black market to feed their families.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Government resources stretched as they attempt to repair pipeline and remediate damage caused by oil spill.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Political o o     Military	Ø Government uses all communications available to emphasize their control; reduce fear, and reassure that the government is mitigating the incident. Ø Government responds to complaints by the other Caspian Sea countries about environmental damage and the harming the Caspian Sea fishing industry. Ø Government increase maritime patrols and hydrocarbon platform security in the Caspian Sea.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 6.5.3 React to a Terrorist Incident
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.7.2.6 Construct Petroleum Distribution Systems ART 4.1.7.1.4 Provide Engineer Support to Bases and Installations

Main Opposition Group Boycotts Presidential Elections

1.   Related Activity	Ø The boycott might force new elections.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Political	Ø The boycott might lead to new elections with a new electoral commission to calm the population. Ø Outside assistance is requested to oversee the new elections.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Riots erupt in the capital from opposition supporters accusing the leading party of fraud and claiming elections will not be transparent.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Economic	Ø The opposition asks for the elections to be postponed. Ø Most store owners close their stores due to fear of their stores being vandalized.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Police forces sent in to stop the chaos.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Social	Ø As the police force try to disperse the demonstrators, the riot might escalate, leading to more violence.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Terrorists Attack Hydrocarbon Pipeline

1.   Related Activity	Ø Terrorists use explosives to destroy a section of a crude oil pipeline and force it to shut down for an extended period of time.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Infrastructure	Ø Damage interrupts hydrocarbon exports that generate revenue for the country. Ø Government and/or oil/natural gas company must allocate funds to repair pipeline.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Pipeline destruction causes massive oil spill.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Physical Environment o     Social	Ø Pipeline destruction causes pollution as it seeps through the ground to contaminate ground water that feeds water wells. Ø Environmentalist groups protest against the damage caused by the oil spill.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Lack of oil exports reduces the ability of the country to purchase imports from other countries.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political	Ø People begin to lack basic necessities including food that lead to protests against the government. Ø Citizens begin to lose faith in the current government and call for new leadership during protests.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Government resources stretched as they attempt to repair pipeline and remediate damage caused by oil spill.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Economic o     Military	Ø Government uses all communication means available to emphasize their control; reduce fear from possible future terrorist attacks; and the government is doing all they can to mitigate the incident. Ø Black market increases as people must find food to feed their families. Ø Government increases their security of their hydrocarbon pipelines.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.7.2.6 Construct Petroleum Distribution Systems ART 4.1.7.1.4 Provide Engineer Support to Bases and Installations

Pirate Radio Broadcasting Anti-US Messages

1.   Related Activity	Ø Messages provide anti-US forces with actionable intelligence.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Ø US Forces must increase FP posture. Ø US Forces plans require modification or cancellation.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Messages mobilize nascent anti-US sentiment.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Information	Ø Host nations shift away from US Forces. Ø Government crackdown on illegal broadcasters increases pirate broadcasters credibility.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Messages provide anti-US forces with command and control.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Social	Ø Government unable to quell riots quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Social unrest increases, government facilities are targeted with VBIEDs. Rumors of assassination attempts on key leaders are widespread.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 2.3 Conduct Information Collection ART 2.3.2 Direct Information Collection ART 2.4.2 Provide Intelligence Support to Information-Related Capabilities ART 7.5.30 Conduct Surveillance
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.5.5 Support Host-Nation Telecommunications Infrastructure Reconstruction Program
	ART 5.3 Conduct Knowledge Management and Information Management ART 5.3.3 Manage Information and Data ART 5.9.3 Conduct Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations ART 5.1.4.4 Provide Visual Information Support

Port Attacked

1.   Related Activity	Ø Ethnic insurgent group with local support has attacked port facilities.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Political	Ø All shipping operations halt. Ø Government authorities challenged by insurgent group, tensions increase. Assassination attempts likely.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Civilian population flees attacks.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Time	Ø New IDP group is created with basic unmet needs. Ø Government unable to quickly recover from the outage. Criminal and insurgent elements begin to work in concert, claiming they will soon be able to supply food, water and shelter to the population.
3.   Related Activity	Ø NGOs request access to area to help population. Host nation requests support from U.S. forces.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Economic	Ø Government unable to quell riots quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Criminal elements prey upon NGOs, take their supplies to resell to population.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Traps left for first responders.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Time o     Political o     Information	Ø Slows or stops rescue and recovery efforts. Ø Government legitimacy questioned when cannot quickly respond to rescue and recovery needs. Ø Groups benefiting from the unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting “atrocities” occurring in the IDP camps.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Country Leadership Assassinated

1.   Related Activity	Ø Political leader(s) of US-friendly country assassinated.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø Rival political parties vie for control in disorderly fashion. The loss of leadership layers create a political vacuum. Ø Insurgent groups declare similar fate for non-aligned leadership.
2.  Related Activity	Ø National law enforcement reaction.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Social	Ø Military forces loyal to both the old regime may put US operations on hold. Ø Many people will support either new or old leaders, but many others will blame US presence as the root cause of the problems.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Insurgent groups capitalize on chaos to attack US presence.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information o     Economy	Ø As local security forces are re-missioned to deal with insurgency, US LOC’s are left unsecured. Ø Insurgency blames US presence for violence and indirectly for assassinations. Ø Steep drop in local markets and EU/NATO engagement put on hold.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.10.2.3 Conduct Cybersecurity ART 5.10.2.3.1 Identify Mission Critical Assets, Cyber Threats, and Vulnerabilities ART 5.10.2.3.2 Protect Networks, Information Systems, and Data
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 5.15.3 Support Civil Administration

Rape Used as a Weapon

1.   Related Activity	Ø Rape is used by militia as a weapon.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political & Social o     Military	Ø The population fears that rape is becoming a norm and asks the government to deal with the situation. Ø The government is criticized as more reports of rape are published and more women are coming forward. Ø Some military forces have also been accused of using rape.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Numerous NGOs offer their assistance and pledge aid to clinics working with rape victims.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Social o     Social & Economic	Ø NGOS set up camps and clinics throughout the country and bring in more doctors. Ø Women that come forward for treatment are excluded from their community and lose everything they have. Ø Those who have been raped and not able to marry or abandoned by their husbands will become socially and economically vulnerable.
3.  Related Activity	Ø Attacks still occurring in most villages.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social & Political o      Infrastructure	Ø Villages not in support of militias are being attacked daily, and women are the primary targets. Ø Many villages are being destroyed and the government will have to provide shelters for IDPs.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 5.15.3 Support Civil Administration
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security

Territory Declares Itself Independent of the Central Government

1.   Related Activity	Ø A part of a country declares itself independent from the internationally recognized legitimate government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø The breakaway republic will attempt to use their ethnic or other connections to a more powerful ally to keep the legitimate government from using military force to regain control of the area. Ø If political means fails, the legitimate government will seek to bring the breakaway republic back under control by military force.
2.  Related Activity	Ø The leaders of the breakaway movement conduct ethnic cleansing of their region.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social/ Political o     Information	Ø The attacked ethnic group will appeal to the legitimate government for protection. Ø Both sides will craft Information Operations (IO) messages to appeal to foreign audiences.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Conflict causes property damage.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Economic	Ø If the split becomes an actual war, extensive property damage will occur. Ø The economic situation may improve or regress dependent on the importance of the breakaway region to the rest of the country or the breakaway republic’s relationship with foreign countries.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Combat generates IDPs/refugees.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Social	Ø Rumors about the invaders success cause panic in the civilian population and these only increase the IDPs and some people to become refugees in neighboring countries. Ø Many people will not care what side wins the Civil War just as long as the conflict ends and they can return to a “normal” life.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.1 Conduct a Movement to Contact ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 7.1.4 Conduct a Pursuit ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault ART 1.2.1.1 Conduct an Envelopment
	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

Religious Shrines Targeted

1.   Related Activity	Ø Suicide bomber attacks shrine on holy day.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Political o     Military	Ø High intergroup conflict. Civil unrest is significant. Ø Government authorities challenged by insurgent group, tensions increase. Assassination attempts likely. Ø Security provided for engineer repair teams.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Hospitals overwhelmed.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Time	Ø Ambulances and civilian transportation clog streets around hospitals. Local police struggle to control traffic. Ø Government unable to quickly to react. Other regional governments apply to have citizens and bodies returned.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Military US assistance is requested.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Social	Ø Military brings medical assistance to local hospitals and sets up mobile hospital in area. Ø Local and International governments must work with military to identify those killed and wounded.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Stranded travelers aggravate over-stressed basic services. Lack of access to water and food increases tension and previously quiet groups begin to demand assistance from the government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Information	Ø IDP/refugees lack water/food-riots increase. Ø Groups benefiting from the unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting the “atrocities” that occurred during pilgrimage.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.1 Provide Combat Casualty Care ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

People Riot Against the Government Due to Rigged Elections

1.   Related Activity	Ø Due to the perception of rigged elections, the people begin to riot in the large cities.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø Government will decide on their response to the situation, but will try to maintain control in the interim. Ø Government will use all controlled media to message that the current regime won their elections legitimately.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Government sends in police and soldiers to stop the protests.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Military	Ø If the police/soldiers handle the protesters too harshly, more people will feel sympathetic and government support will drop. Ø Local military may augment the police to quell the violent protests.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  The riots may damage businesses, houses, and other infrastructure.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Infrastructure o     Physical Environment	Ø If riots become too violent and spills over to the destruction of businesses, the riots may negatively affect the economy. Ø The government or private citizens will need to spend resources to repair the damage caused by the riots. Ø Violent riots may cause environmental damage that the government will need to address.
4.  Related Activity	Ø The riots may lead to a change in government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Political	Ø In some countries, the riots may cause the resignation of the current government or new elections. Ø The government’s response to the disaster may play a major role in whether the current regime stays in power.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement ART 7.3.2.3 Perform Host-Nation Police Training and Support
	ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations ART 2.2.5.1 Collect Police Information ART 2.2.5.2 Conduct Police Information Analysis ART 2.2.5.4 Disseminate Police Information and Criminal Intelligence
	ART 6.10.2 Counter the Threat ART 7.5.31.1 Conduct Counterintelligence

Run on the Banks

1.   Related Activity	Ø Local nationals form lines at banks to withdraw their money.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Economic	Ø Groups benefiting from unrest execute a well- developed perception management campaign highlighting the uncertainty of the country’s banking system. Ø Markets close in response to panic.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Long lines form into mobs.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Time/Social	Ø Road systems in towns are clogged with people. Ø As time passes, social unrest increases and mobs start getting angry.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Large mobs targeted by suicide bombers.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Infrastructure	Ø Government unable to quell mobs quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Hospitals become over crowded with injuries from mobs and suicide bomber attacks.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 5.15.3 Support Civil Administration ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.1 Provide Combat Casualty Care ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground)
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services

Meetings Between US and Opposition Forces

1.   Related Activity	Ø Secret meetings between US forces and opposition leaders.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Political	Ø Distrust between the current government and the opposition continue as presidential elections are approaching. Ø Tensions rising in the opposition because all leaders were not invited.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Government cancels upcoming important meeting with US representatives regarding peace process.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Political	Ø Government believes US forces and opposition are working together to overthrow the current regime. Ø The revelation will likely sever the already fragile diplomatic relations between the US and the government.
3.  Related Activity	Ø The opposition has been receiving large amount of money after the secret meetings.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Social	Ø The population is outraged that the US provides money to the opposition instead of using it to help the country by building more public services.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Severe Floods

1.   Related Activity	Ø Rain and/or snow melt causes severe floods that devastate an area.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social o     Infrastructure	Ø Government will respond to the situation and decide whether to request foreign aid. Ø Citizens will want their government to take care of their immediate needs and to rebuild their homes. Ø Damaged infrastructure will need replacement. Cleanup remains necessary for even buildings that the government does not decide to rebuild to avoid the outbreak of disease.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Local military and/or NGOs will respond with assistance.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Military	Ø Victims will require minimum standard of living in regards to food, water, and shelter. Ø Military will provide rescue teams, medical assistance, temporary shelter, and food/water to victims.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Economy will suffer due to the earthquake’s effects.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economy o     Information & Infrastructure	Ø The economy will not return to a resemblance of normalcy until the people can obtain permanent housing and businesses reopen. Ø Most rural areas rely upon cell phones, the people will not possess a means of communication outside the local area.
4.  Related Activity	Ø Earthquake may overextend the government’s limited financial resources.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Political	Ø For some countries, the governments will craft a message that will play to foreign audiences to attract both governmental and individual financial aid to recover from the floods. Ø The government’s response to the disaster may play a major role in whether the current regime stays in power.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support ART 4.1.3.11.1 Purify Water ART 4.1.3.11 Provide Water Support
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.1 Provide Combat Casualty Care ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

Rogue Element Detonates a Suitcase Nuclear Weapon

1.   Related Activity	Ø Country, individual, or group obtains & detonates a nuclear weapon against US or Coalition Forces.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø US/Coalition must decide whether to retaliate with their own nuclear weapon if the attacker can be determined. Ø  US/Coalition must decide whether to replace and/or escalate the number of Soldiers deployed to the area.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Nuclear blast destroys country’s infrastructure.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Physical Environment	Ø US/Coalition must decide whether to clean up the nuclear damage or just declare the nuclear zone off- limits. Ø Fallout from the nuclear blast could make areas inhabitable to live or to use for agricultural pursuits.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Nuclear blast destroys hydrocarbon pipelines and/or drilling platforms.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social/ Economic	Ø Attacked country will not be able to export hydrocarbon products. This could bankrupt the country, cause massive unemployment, and internationally raise the price of crude oil and/or natural gas. Ø The unemployed citizens may conduct protests demanding better care of the nuclear blast victims and/or to assist those displaced.
4.  Related Activity	Ø The country where the nuclear blast takes place may not possess the financial means or technology to mitigate the disaster.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø Attacked country may request foreign government aid to assist in the clean up and to support the people displaced by the nuclear attack. Ø The US military may be the only organization capable of operating in the nuclear areas to assist those injured by the nuclear blast.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	OP 7 Counter CBRNE Weapons and Threats in the Operational Area ART 6.8 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations ART 6.11 Provide Explosive Ordnance Disposal Protection Support
	ART 6.8 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations ART 6.8.2.1 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Interdiction Operations ART 6.8.2.3 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Elimination Operations ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.1 Provide Combat Casualty Care ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground)
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.3.3.4 Conduct Populace and Resource Control ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance

School Teachers and University Professors Targeted

1.   Related Activity	Ø Kidnapping and assassination of university professors in city.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political o     Information	Ø Parents afraid to send children to school. Many teachers and professors do not report to work. Ø Government unable to protect its citizens- loses legitimacy. Ø Insurgents execute a well-developed perception management campaign focused on “foreign influence” coming through schools
2.  Related Activity	Ø Heavy security placed around schools and universities.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Time	Ø Criminal elements offer their protection services to parents and teachers, challenge faith in government. Ø The longer children stay away from schools, the more schools shut permanently.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Abandoned schools looted, books burned.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social o     Economic	Ø Government unable to quell looting quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Social unrest increases. Ø School and university employees now unemployed, appeal to government for aid.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Train Carrying Food to City from Rural Area Is Hijacked

1.   Related Activity	Ø Train is damaged by shooting from hijackers.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Political o     Military	Ø Damage to train will cost significant money to repair, and will result in down time until the repairs can be made. Ø Government authorities challenged by hijackers, tensions increase. Ø The military sends in troops to secure the area, but the hijackers have already stolen significant amounts of food.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Farmers are not paid for the food they shipped to the city.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Social	Ø Farmers aren’t paid for the shipments that didn’t arrive. This is a significant blow for the farmers and their families. Ø Farmers are hesitant to trust the system and send off their next shipment of food.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Local shops do not receive their shipment, causing local citizens to have a lower food supply.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Economic	Ø Local citizens are angered by the low food supply; they are unable to purchase satisfactory amounts of food staples for their families. Ø Local shops lose money as they are unable to sell the quantity of food they normally would.
4.  Related Activity	Ø People demand safer routes for food transportation from their government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø All three groups –farmers, shop owners, and local citizens—turn to the government to provide better security for transport routes. Ø The government must develop a plan and disseminate such information to the people to retain their trust for a safe, economically viable society.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

Trucks Being Stopped and Robbed Along Major Highway

1.   Related Activity	Ø Truck drivers appeal to host nation for protection.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Political	Ø Host nation requests assistance from US military. Ø Government unable to stop robberies quickly; loses legitimacy.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Insurgent and criminal groups offer protection.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economic o     Time	Ø Illegal economic activity increases with a thriving black market. Criminal and gang elements attempt to profit from the situation and begin selling hijacked goods to the population. Ø Government unable to quickly recover from the stoppage. Criminal and insurgent elements begin to work in concert, claiming they will soon be able to supply goods to the population.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Shortages of goods in urban areas, population takes to the street to demand assistance from the government.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø Government unable to quell riots quickly; loses legitimacy. Ø Social unrest increases, government facilities are targeted with VBIEDs. Rumors of assassination attempts on key leaders are widespread.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security ART 6.4.6.1 Conduct Convoy Security Operations
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order

US Tourists and Journalists Seized by Insurgents

1.   Related Activity	Ø Insurgent group kidnaps cable TV crew and archaeologists in the vicinity of Mt. Ararat.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Social o     Political o     Military	Ø High sympathy for local insurgent group. Ø High visibility of event spurs regional national leaders to call for resolution. Ø Due to location, four separate militaries are alerted.
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Military put on standby for rescue mission if diplomatic means fail.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Time	Ø Hostages are citizens of over a dozen countries, all wanting a role in any rescue attempt. Ø HN Government unable to quickly react. The longer they take, the more complex a rescue becomes.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Religious leaders rally supporters under the theory of suppression of archaeological discoveries.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political, Social o     Information, Time	Ø State churches begin exercising their influence over political leaders. Ø Initially a military situation, time will cause transformation to a political, then religious, and ultimately an ethnic conflict.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.5 Conduct Tactical Mission Tasks ART 7.5.24 Secure a Unit, Facility, or Location ART 7.5.17 Follow and Support the Actions of a Friendly Force
	ART 7.6.2 Conduct Limited Interventions ART 7.6.2.1 Perform Noncombatant Evacuation Operations
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 1.2.1.1 Conduct an Envelopment

Unknown UAV/Aircraft Overflies US Position

1.   Related Activity	Ø Overflight provides Threat forces with targeting data.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Political	Ø American D&D efforts are negated. Ø Host nation demands American efforts against “aggression.”
2.  Related Activity	Ø Overflight provides Threat and adversary nations with propaganda victory.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Information	Ø Non-affiliated media entities play up US incompetence. Ø Local anti-US elements will use event to show why host nation should split from US.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Overflight tests response of US Forces.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø Host Government request more robust US response. Ø Fear of US Forces declines as US military is viewed as a paper tiger.
4.  Related Activity	Y Overflight forces redeployment of host nation ADA assets.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Military	Ø  US forces responsible for strategic ADA.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 3.4 Employ Air and Missile Defense ART 6.1.1 Plan Ballistic Missile Defense ART 6.1.2 Conduct Ballistic Missile Defense ART 3.4.1 Process Tactical Aerial Platforms ART 3.4.2 Destroy Aerial Platforms ART 3.4.6 Conduct Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar Defense
	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense

US Forces Conduct a Local Election Via UN Mandate

1.   Related Activity	Ø US Forces are required to design and build electoral process.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø US Forces must create local political constitution and process. Ø US Forces must publicize and defend election as free and fair.
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Forces defend and monitor polling places.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Ø Commander must support host nation forces. Ø US Forces dispersed to operate.
3.   Related Activity	Ø US Forces install newly elected leader.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø US Forces protect and advise leadership. Ø US forces present positive face of political change.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations

US Forces Conduct Police Training Operations

1.   Related Activity	Ø Border police duties bring US Forces into direct contact with criminal elements.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø US Forces blamed deaths in custody. Ø US Operations are purported to engage in criminal activities along with corrupt local police.
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Forces are required to engage in training operations.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Ø Commander must support host nation forces. Ø US Forces must be supported by host nation forces due to revised SOFA.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Deconfliction and monitoring of US Forces limits mobility and reaction time.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	Ø US Forces unable to proactively patrol and operate. Ø Threat forces capable to predicting US movement.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 6.13 Conduct Police Operations ART 6.13.1 Perform Law Enforcement ART 6.13.2 Conduct Criminal Investigations ART 7.3.2 Establish Civil Control
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations ART 2.2.5 Conduct Police Intelligence Operations
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4.1 Conduct Area and Base Security Operations ART 6.4.6.1 Conduct Convoy Security Operations

US Forces Discover Abandoned Cesium137 and Cobalt60 Along MSR

1.  Related Activity	Ø MSR blocked to movement.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø Locals blame US for evacuating them. Ø Enemy perception management operations are effective in portraying American “nuclear weapons” to local population.
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Forces are required to remediate damage.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Economic	Ø Commander must support host nation forces in CBRNE due to lack of host nation CBRNE capability. Ø US Forces are requested to fix “economic damage” to local villages.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Local villagers panic and leave area.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	Ø US Forces required to control movement and stop looting. Ø Threat forces blame US for “ethnic cleansing.”
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 1.0 Conduct Maneuver and Mobility Support Operations ART 1.6 Conduct Mobility Operations ART 4.1.7 Provide General Engineering Support ART 5.3.4 Conduct Geospatial Engineering Activities
	ART 6.8 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations ART 6.8.3.1 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Active Defense ART 6.8.3.2 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Passive Defense ART 6.8.2.1 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Interdiction Operations ART 6.8.2.3 Conduct Weapons of Mass Destruction Elimination Operations
	ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations ART 6.14 Conduct Resettlement Operations

US Forces Engage and Detain Third Country SPF

1.   Related Activity	Ø Host nation will attempt to gain control of detainees.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø US Forces maintain control of detainees with creating an international incident. Ø US Forces plans require modification or cancellation.
2.  Related Activity	Ø HUMINT exploitation of detainees reveals attack planning.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Military	Ø Possibility of enemy Deception operation. Ø Military planning and force deployment schedules and locations affected.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Detainees reveal third state control of local opposition forces.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø Government unwilling to crack down on opposition. Ø Social unrest increases as local opposition forces create chaos.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 6.4.4 Provide Protective Services for Selected Individuals ART 6.5 Apply Antiterrorism Measures ART 6.4.4 Provide Protective Services for Selected Individuals
	ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 6.12 Conduct Detention Operations ART 6.12.2 Perform Detainee Operations
	ART 6.10.2 Counter the Threat ART 7.5.31.1 Conduct Counterintelligence

US Forces Face Advanced Anti-Armor Capabilities

1.   Related Activity	Ø Advanced anti-armor capabilities defeat US Armor.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Ø US Forces must plan on avoiding or destroying unanticipated anti-armor capability. Ø US Forces available are restricted.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Advanced anti-armor capabilities force partner nations to pull of US operations or restrict their participation to “safer” operations.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø Commander must manage public fallout. Ø Military planning and force deployment schedules and locations affected.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Detainees reveal third state control of local opposition forces.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Social	Ø Host Government unwilling to acknowledge foreign troop presence. Ø US losses encourage anti US sentiment.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 7.2 Conduct Defensive Tasks ART 7.2.2 Conduct an Area Defense
	ART 2.2 Provide Support to Situational Understanding ART 2.2.2 Perform Situation Development ART 2.2.4 Provide Tactical Intelligence Overwatch
	ART 2.4 Provide Intelligence Support to Targeting and Information-Related Capabilities ART 2.4.1 Provide Intelligence Support to Targeting ART 2.4.2 Provide Intelligence Support to Information-Related Capabilities ART 2.4.3 Provide Intelligence Support to Combat Assessment ART 2.3.4.3 Support Site Exploitation

US Forces Face Influenza Outbreak

1.  Related Activity	Ø Outbreak causes US forces to break contact with civilian populations.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø US Forces blamed. Ø Enemy perception management operations are effective in portraying American “crimes” through immediate release of “evidence.”
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Forces face limitations on host nation support.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Ø Commander must support host nation forces. Ø US Forces must be supported by host nation forces due to revised SOFA.
3.   Related Activity	Ø US Forces asked to assist local health authorities.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Information	Ø US Forces unable to proactively patrol and operate. Ø Threat forces capable to predicting US movement.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	Provide Health Service Support (ART 4.3) ART 4.3.1 Provide Combat Casualty Care ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.3 Provide Medical Regulating Support ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.7 Conduct Medical Stability Operations ART 7.3.3.8 Support Public Health Programs
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance

US Forces Mistakenly Engage Civilian Airliner

1.   Related Activity	Ø Threat nation civilian casualties are widely publicized.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information	Ø US Forces directed to lessen aggressive posture. Ø US Forces targeted by widespread INFOWAR perception management operations.
2.  Related Activity	Ø US Forces are required to adopt a lessened protective posture.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Military o     Military	Ø Commander must manage protective posture. Ø Military planning and force deployment schedules and locations affected.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Threat forces use civilian aircraft as ISR assets.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Information	Ø US Forces unable to stop collection. Ø  US Force must adopt denial and deception techniques.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 3.4 Employ Air and Missile Defense ART 6.1.1 Plan Ballistic Missile Defense ART 6.1.2 Conduct Ballistic Missile Defense ART 3.4.1 Process Tactical Aerial Platforms ART 3.4.2 Destroy Aerial Platforms ART 3.4.6 Conduct Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar Defense
	ART 6.10.2 Counter the Threat ART 7.5.31.1 Conduct Counterintelligence
	ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security
	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management

US Soldier Uses Koran For Target Practice

1.   Related Activity	Ø US Soldier decides to zero weapon using a Koran or other Muslim holy object.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information o     Social	Ø US Government through their most senior civilian and military leaders both in country and in the US must mitigate the situation by a public apology. Ø  US IO Officers must mitigate the incident at the tactical level by apologies to local Muslim leaders. Ø Local people engage in protests outside US and coalition military bases that disrupt military operations.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Muslim leaders demand for the ouster of US troops.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military	Ø US civilian and military leaders must coordinate with the host nation’s government to ensure that the US military departs on their schedule not one dictated by others. Ø The incident may cause a temporary increase in the ability for the insurgent forces to recruit soldiers for their cause as they use the incident for their benefit.
3.   Related Activity	Ø  Insurgent group uses incident in their own IO campaign against the US.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Information o     Information	Ø If video exists of the incident, the insurgents will use it in their IO campaign on the internet. Ø US IO Officers must generate their own IO campaign and also educate all Soldiers coming into the country on the proper manners to deal with the host nation, in regards to not attacking the dominant religion.
4.  Related Activity	Ø US may find the need to depart the country earlier than expected.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Economic	Ø Protection of the country’s hydrocarbon resources remains important, but the US cannot do so if they cannot remain in the country.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 1.1 Perform Tactical Actions Associated with Force Projection and Deployment\ ART 1.1.2 Conduct Tactical Deployment and Redeployment Activities
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.4.3 Provide Base Camp Sustainment ART 4.1.5 Provide Operational Contract Support ART 4.2.1 Provide Human Resources Support
	ART 2.3 Conduct Information Collection ART 2.3.2 Direct Information Collection ART 7.5.30 Conduct Surveillance

US Soldiers Are Killed When a Local Resident Blows Himself Up in a Suicide Attack On Base

1.   Related Activity	Ø Base commander begin an investigation into the attack and have soldiers go door to door to gather information.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Military	Ø Investigators looking for what type of material were used to make the bomb and where it came from.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Negotiations between the main militia group and the US are put to a halt
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Political	Ø The peace process in the region will come to a halt as the US suspects the militia group.
3.   Related Activity	Ø Base closed to locals.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Economy o     Social	Ø The local economy and the locals are affected as many of them conduct business on base. Ø Trust between local population and US soldiers is compromised.
4.  Related Activity	Ø  An insurgent group claim responsibility and vows to do it again.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Military	Ø Security on base is tightened and only those on patrol/essential mission are allowed outside the wire.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 7.1 Conduct Offensive Tasks ART 7.1.2 Conduct an Attack ART 1.2.1.1.2 Conduct an Air Assault
	ART 6.6.3 Conduct Security Operations ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security
	ART 6.4 Conduct Operational Area Security ART 2.3 Conduct Information Collection ART 6.4.2 Conduct Critical Installations and Facilities Security

USAF Fighter Crash Kills Friendly Civilians

1.   Related Activity	Ø Low altitude jet hits powerlines and crashes in urban terrain.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Information o     Social	Ø US Government through senior civilian and military leaders both in country and in the US attempt to mitigate the situation by a public apology. Ø  Opponents to US presence portray incident as “price” of Western involvement. Ø Local ethnic group engages in protests outside US and coalition military bases that disrupt the coalition’s military operations.
2.  Related Activity	Ø Ethnic group leaders demand for the withdrawal of US troops.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military o     Information	Ø US civilian and military leaders negotiate with the host nation’s government to maintain military freedom of action. Ø The incident may cause increased recruitment for insurgents. Ø Captured video of incident or aftermath, and taped testimony of survivors released on internet will increase standing of effected group
3.  Related Activity	Ø Host nation accelerates US timeline.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o  Political Ø  Economic	Ø Host nation government succumbs to internal pressure to move US out of country. Ø Hydrocarbon workers protesting US presence may affect nation’s economy.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 5.0 Conduct Mission Command ART 5.1 Conduct the Operations Process ART 5.3 Conduct Knowledge Management and Information Management ART 5.3.2 Conduct Information Management
	ART 1.1 Perform Tactical Actions Associated with Force Projection and Deployment ART 1.1.2 Conduct Tactical Deployment and Redeployment Activities
	ART 5.15 Conduct Civil Affairs Operations ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance ART 5.15.2 Conduct Nation Assistance ART 5.15.1 Conduct Civil Information Management
	ART 4.1.4.3 Provide Base Camp Sustainment ART 4.1.5 Provide Operational Contract Support ART 4.2.1 Provide Human Resources Support

Mentally unbalanced ANOC chemical engineer releases large quantities of lethal hazardous materials into the atmosphere.

1.   Related Activity	Ø Toxic fumes begin to radiate outward from the Baku petrochemical facility.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Infrastructure	Ø Authorities initially announce that only a minor, containable hazardous materials (hazmat) spillage occurred. Ø  Local first responders are poorly equipped and lack skill-sets necessary to contain the spillage. No one assumes responsibility for issuing an evacuation order.
2.  Related Activity	Ø A swift sea breeze rapidly spreads toxic fumes into densely populates areas.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure/Social o     Political o     Economic/Social	Ø Mounting casualties quickly overwhelm health care facilities. Panic overtakes residents. Ø The government, unable to quell fears, loses credibility with citizens. Ø Black market surges as locals empty market shelves in search of food and fuel needed to flee Baku.
3.  Related Activity	Ø Government authority breaks down in the face of chaos and fear. Atropia requests US support to provide aid and reestablish order.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Political o     Military/Political o     Physical Environment/Political/ Military	Ø Opposition political groups accuse the government of criminal negligence and demand the resignation of the president, his cabinet, and RPD representatives in the legislature. Ø The government declares a state of emergency and mobilizes the armed forces to restore order. Ø As shifting winds carry the chemical plume closer to international boundaries, neighboring countries accuse Atropia of fomenting a hoax to justify deployment of US forces.
4.   Related Activity	Ø  The crisis generates large numbers of internally displace persons (IDPs) who have an urgent need for medical care, shelter, and essential services.
Ø Possible Variable Conditions	o     Infrastructure o     Social	Ø The rapid influx of IDPs overwhelms NGO capabilities to provide shelter, services, and medical care. Ø Criminal and gang elements begin extorting outrageous sums of money from victims in return for transporting them to safe areas.
Possible        Related METL Tasks	ART 6.8 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management
	ART 6.8.4 Conduct Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Consequence Management ART 6.8.4.1 Respond to Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Incidents ART 6.5.3 React to a Terrorist Incident
	ART 7.3 Conduct Stability Tasks ART 7.3.3.1 Provide Essential Civil Services ART 7.3.2.1 Restore Public Safety and Order
	ART 4.3 Provide Health Service Support ART 4.3.2 Provide Medical Evacuation (Air and Ground) ART 4.3.4 Provide Medical Logistics
	ART 7.4.5 Conduct Civil Support Operations ART 7.4.3 Provide Support for Domestic Disasters ART 7.6.2.5 Conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance