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Difference between revisions of "Chapter 3: Operational Variables"
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|-
 
|-
 
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Political: Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy; Economic: Employment Status;  Social: Social Vo­ latility.
 
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Political: Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy; Economic: Employment Status;  Social: Social Vo­ latility.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-24. Social: ethnic diversity
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes  the number and  specifies the interaction of various ethnic  groups within  a given population.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Single Group, Non-Competitive'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|'''Multiple Group, Competitive, Single Predominant'''
 +
|Up to three distinct ethnic groups distributed throughout a given area with one group clearly identifiable as the dominant population.
 +
|Role-player population with one group as the dominant population.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Multiple Group, Competitive, None Predominant'''
 +
|Three or more distinct ethnic groups distributed throughout a given area with no group designat­ed as the dominant population.
 +
|Role-player population with no group designated as the dominant population.
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Social: Religious Diversity, Social Volatility, Population Movement, Common Languages.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-25. Social: religious diversity
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes the number and specifies the interaction of various religious groups within a state or scenario popula­ tion.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Single Religion, Non- Competitive'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|'''Multiple Religions, Competitive, Single Predominant'''
 +
|Up to three distinct religious groups distributed within a given area with one group as the domi­nant population.
 +
|Role-player population with one group as the dominant population.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Multiple Religions, Competitive, None Predominant'''
 +
|Up to three distinct religious groups distributed within a given area with no group designated as the dominant population.
 +
|Role-player population with no group designated as the dominant population.
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Social: Ethnic Diversity, Social  Volatility, Population Movement, Common Languages.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-26. Social: population movement
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes the  initial prevalence of migrant populations, internally displaced persons, and refugees within a coun­ try, region, or area. (This  designation does not preclude the  possibility of migrant populations as a result of the training unit's action or inaction.)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Settled, Stable'''
 +
|Population is settled, organized, and does not move or displace except when confronted with occasions of extreme  duress.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|'''Mixed'''
 +
|Part of  population is settled and part moves frequently.
 +
|Population movement is based on the training unit's activities or pre-scripted as a scenario sub-event  in response to training needs.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Migrant'''
 +
|Population frequently moves as a part of the normal state of affairs.
 +
|1-2 special mission elements’ worth of role-players. Will cause the Political: Centers of Po­litical Power subvariable to most likely  be Tribal.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Internally  Displaced Persons'''
 +
|A person who is involuntary moved inside the national boundaries of his or her country.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|'''Refugees'''
 +
|A person who, by reason of real or imagined danger, has left their home country or country of their nationality and is unwilling or unable  to return.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Economic:  Employment Status; Economic Diversity; Social: Social Volatility, Common  Languages.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-27. Social: common languages
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' The preferred language(s) of a specific country or region  or lack thereof.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Single Preferred and Predominant Language'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|'''Multiple Languages with One the Preferred Language'''
 +
|Country or region where several languages exist but one is recognized and used by the population as the preferred language.
 +
|For CTC replication, requires relatively high re­ sources and support for an OE with multiple lan­ guages in terms of role-players and interpreters.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Multiple Languages with No Preferred or Predominant Language'''
 +
|Country or region where there is no preferred or predominant language. Frequently found in failed nation-states or states where the na­tional language is not used except in specia­lized areas such as commerce.
 +
|Same as above.
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Social: Demographic Mix, Ethnic Diversity, Population Movement.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-28. Social: criminal activity
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Defines the level  of criminal activity present in a society.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Limited'''
 +
|Limited criminal activity.
 +
|For CTC replication, 1-2 activities present  from criminal activity. Limited to up to 30%  of the total urban land­scape.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Moderate'''
 +
|Moderate criminal activity present.
 +
|For CTC replication, 1-3 activities present  from criminal activity. Limited to up to 50%  of the total urban landscape. Presence of at least one criminal gang distributed throughout the scenario environment.
 +
|-
 +
|'''High'''
 +
|High criminal activity present.
 +
|For CTC replication, 3-4 activities present  from criminal activity. Two or more rival  criminal gangs or organiza­ tions present  and active in the scenario (manifested by competition, gang or mob warfare). Limited to presence in 75% of the total urban landscape.
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Political: Type of Government; Military: Non-State Paramilitary Forces; Economic: Illegal Economic Activity.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-29. Social: human rights
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' ''Human rights'' refer to the basic rights and freedoms to which all humans are entitled. Examples of rights and freedoms that have come to be commonly thought of as human rights include: civil and political rights, such as the right to life and liberty, freedom of expression, and equality before the law; and economic and social rights, including the right to participate in culture, the right to food, the right to work, and the right to education.
 +
The most widely recognized international documentation of human rights is the 1948 UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), which has been ratified by the majority of the world’s nations. However, many nations still struggle or refuse to implement all of the provisions of this declaration. Understanding whether and to what extent each country or region is complying with internationally recognized human rights is critical to the success of military operations. Below are some of the more blatant areas of violation within human rights. These are areas the U.S. military has faced in the recent past that may be important to understand in a future AO.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Women'''
 +
|Issues relating to the political, economic, civil, social, and educational rights of women.
 +
|Examples of issues related to these areas are voting rights, employment discrimination, sexual discrimination, honor killings, forced and early marriages, reproductive rights, health care, and educational discrimination.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Human Trafficking'''
 +
|Human trafficking is the commerce  and trade in the movement  or migration of people, legal and illegal,  including legitimate labor  activities as well as forced labor. The term is used in a more narrow sense by advocacy groups to mean the recruitment, transportation, harboring, or receipt of people for the purposes of slavery, prostitu­tion, forced labor (including bonded labor or debt bondage), and servitude.
 +
|Human trafficking is the fastest growing criminal industry  in the world, with the total annual reve­nue for trafficking in persons estimated to be between $5 billion and $9 billion.  (Fact Sheet 1, Economic Roots of Trafficking in the UNECE Region, Geneva, 15 Dec 04).
 +
|-
 +
|'''Child Warriors'''
 +
|Child warriors are the result of forced or com­pulsory recruitment of anyone under the age of 18 for use in armed conflict. This can include children taking direct part in hostilities or used in support roles such  as porters, spies, messen­gers, or lookouts.
 +
|In over 20 countries around the world, children are direct participants in war. Denied a child­hood and often subjected to horrific violence, an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 children are serv­ing as soldiers for both reInformation Variablebel groups and gov­ernment forces in current armed conflicts.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Torture'''
 +
|Torture, according to the UN Convention Against Torture, is: “any act by which severe pain and suffering, whether physical or mental, is intentionally inflicted on a person for such purposes as obtaining from him, or a third per­son, information or a confession, punishing him for an act he or a third person has committed or is suspected of having committed, or intimidat­ing or coercing him or a third person, or for any reason based on discrimination of any kind, when such pain or suffering is inflicted by or at the instigation of or with the consent or acquies­cence of a public official or other person  acting in an official capacity. It does not include pain or suffering arising only from, inherent in, or inci­dental to, lawful sanctions.”
 +
|Torture is widely considered to be a violation of human rights, and is declared to be unaccepta­ble by Article 5 of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Signatories of the Third Ge­neva Convention and Fourth Geneva Conven­tion officially agree not to torture prisoners in armed conflicts. Torture is also prohibited  Against Torture, which  has been ratified by 145 states. However, Amnesty Inter­national estimates that at least 81 world governments currently practice torture, some open­ly.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Genocide'''
 +
|The 1948 UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime  of Genocide (CPPCG). Article 2, defines genocide as: "any of the fol­lowing  acts committed with intent  to destroy, in whole or in part,  a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group,  as such: killing members of the group; causing  serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life, calculated to bring about its  physical destruction in  whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births  within the group; [and] forcibly transferring child­ren of the group to another group.”
 +
|To commit genocide, the perpetrators need a strong, centralized authority and bureaucratic organization as well as pathological individuals and criminals. Also required is a campaign of vilification and dehumanization of the victims by the perpetrators, who are usually new states or new regimes attempting to impose conformity to a new ideology and its model of society. Examples of recent acts of genocide are Rwanda, Former Yugoslavia, and Sudan.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Slavery'''
 +
|Slavery is a form of forced labor in which people are considered to be, or treated as, the property of others. Slaves are held against their will from the time of their capture, purchase, or birth, and are deprived of the right  to leave, to refuse to work, or to receive compensation (such as wag­es).
 +
|Evidence of slavery predates written records, and has existed to varying  extents, forms and periods in almost all cultures  and continents. In some societies, slavery existed as a legal  insti­tution or socio-economic system, but today it is formally outlawed in nearly all countries. Never­theless, the practice continues in various  forms around the world.  Freedom from slavery  is an internationally recognized human right.  Article 4 of the UDHR  states: “No one shall be held in slavery or servitude; slavery  and the slave trade shall be prohibited in all their forms''.”''
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Political: Type of Government; Military: Non-State Paramilitary Forces; Economic: Illegal Economic Activity.
 +
|}
 +
 +
=== Information Variable ===
 +
The Information variable describes the nature, scope, characteristics, and effects of individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, disseminate, or act on information. Information involves the access, use, manipulation, distribution, and reliance on information technology systems, both civilian and military, by an entity (state or non-state). Understanding whatever communication infrastructure exists in an OE is important because it ultimately controls the flow of information to the population and military and/or paramilitary forces, as well as influencing local and international audiences. Communication availability can act as a leveling function with regard to mitigating military technical advantages to a surprising extent. Military units must understand and engage in the information environment in order to achieve their objectives. The specific information subvariables and their settings represent replicable conditions that may be present within an OE and are depicted in table 3-30. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-31 through 3-34.
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-30. Information variable and subvariable settings
 +
|'''Variable'''
 +
| colspan="4" |'''Information'''
 +
|-
 +
|Subvariable
 +
|Public Communications Media
 +
|Information Warfare
 +
|Intelligence
 +
|Information Management
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="7" |     
 +
 +
Subvariable Settings
 +
|Internet
 +
|Electronic Warfare
 +
|Open-Source Intelligence
 +
|Rudimentary
 +
|-
 +
|Television
 +
|Computer Warfare
 +
|Human Intelligence
 +
|Basic
 +
|-
 +
|Radio
 +
|Information Attack
 +
|Signals Intelligence
 +
|Medium
 +
|-
 +
|Print Media
 +
|Deception
 +
|Imagery Intelligence
 +
|Advanced
 +
|-
 +
|Telephone
 +
|Physical Destruction
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|Postal and Courier Service
 +
|Protection and Security Measures
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|Word of Mouth
 +
|Perception Management
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-31. Information: public communications media
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes the type of information or media sources that may be available to the public in an OE.
 +
 +
(The individual media as sub-subvariables can have settings reflecting the level  of availability: None = nonexistent; Limited = available in large cities  only; Moderate = available in cities and some towns; Widespread = available down to town  level.)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Internet'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|Interruptible, 4-5 building intranet access per town, capable of replicating an Internet capable of hosting at least 6 dynamic  pages or sites consist­ing of the following site types:  2 weblogs, 2 Internet chat rooms, and 2 news websites.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Television'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|A single channel, cable broadcast capability with a connected studio pro­duction site (located in exercise area), associated personnel, and suffi­cient programming to broadcast 10 hours per day.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Radio'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|An AM or FM radio broadcast station, with associated personnel, and the ability to broadcast programming for 10 hours per day for the duration of an exercise. Broadcast and studio facilities would ideally be located in the exercise area to enhance play.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Print Media'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|Media personnel (role-players) and associated equipment required to create and locally produce a single-page newspaper or flyer. Minimum of one production element present per 2 towns
 +
|-
 +
|'''Telephone'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|Landline and/or mobile telephone service.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Postal and Courier Service'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|Postal or courier personnel (role-players) and associated transportation means
 +
|-
 +
|'''Word of Mouth'''
 +
|Self-explanatory.
 +
|Scripted instructions to role-players to report specific information, relay certain data, or to spontaneously report on specific activities.
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:'''  Economic: Banking and Finance; Social: Social Volatility, Ethnic Diversity, Criminal Activity, Common Languages; Information: Information Management; Infrastructure: Utility Level, Utilities Present, Transportation Architecture.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-32. Information: information warfare
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' ''Information warfare'' (INFOWAR) is the specifically planned and integrated actions taken to achieve an informa­tion advantage at critical points  and times. (FM 7-100.1) INFOWAR consists of seven elements: electronic warfare (EW), computer warfare, information attack, deception, physical destruction, protection and security measures, and perception management. These elements do not exist in isolation from one another and are not mutually exclusive. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
(INFOWAR elements as sub-subvariables can have settings on a scale  of 1 to 5: 1 = Very Limited; 2 = Limited; 3 = Mod­erate; 4 = Good; 5 = Superior.)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Electronic Warfare'''
 +
|Consists of countermeasures conducted to control or deny other actors’ use of the electro­magnetic  spectrum, while ensuring one’s own use of it. EW capabilities allow  an actor to ex­ploit, deceive, degrade, disrupt, damage, or destroy sensors, processors, and C2 nodes. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|At a minimum, the goal of EW is to control the use of the electromagnetic spectrum at critical locations and times or to attack a specific system. To accomplish these EW goals and objectives, actors can employ  both lethal and nonlethal measures. ''Lethal EW'' activities include the physi­cal destruction of high-priority targets supporting another actor’s decision making process—such as reconnaissance sensors, command posts, and communications systems. They also in­clude activities such as lethal air defense sup­pression measures. If available, precision muni­tions can degrade or eliminate high-technology C2 assets and associated links.  ''Nonlethal EW'' means range from signals  reconnaissance and electronic jamming to the deployment of protec­tive countermeasures and deception jammers. Sophisticated camouflage, deception, decoy, or mockup systems  can degrade the effects of enemy reconnaissance, intelligence, surveil­lance, and target acquisition (RISTA) systems. Also, an actor  can employ low-cost GPS  jam­mers to disrupt another actor’s precision muni­tions targeting, sensor-to-shooter links, and navigation. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Computer Warfare'''
 +
|Consists of attacks that focus specifically on computer systems, networks, and/or nodes. This includes a wide variety of activities, ranging from unauthorized access (hacking) of information systems for intelligence-collection purposes, to the insertion of  malicious software  (viruses, worms, logic  bombs, or Trojan horses) and deceptive information entry into computer systems. Such attacks concentrate on the denial of service and disruption or manipulation of the integrity of the information infrastructure. (FM  7-100.1)
 +
|Actors may attempt  to accomplish these activities through the use of agents or third-party individuals with direct access to another actor’s information systems. They can also continually access and attack systems at great distances via communications links such as the Internet or various wireless devices. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Information Attack'''
 +
|An ''information attack'' (IA) focuses on the intentional disruption or distortion of information in a manner that supports a comprehensive INFOWAR  campaign. Unlike computer warfare attacks that target  the information systems, IAs target the information itself. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|An IA may target  an information system for sabotage (electronically or physically) or manipulate and exploit information. This may involve altering data, stealing data, or forcing a system to perform a function for which it was not intended. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Deception'''
 +
|Deception activities include  measures designed to mislead adversaries by manipulation, distortion, or falsification of information. The aim of deception is to influence opponents’ situational understanding and lead them to act in a  manner that is prejudicial to their own interests or favors the actor  employing the deception. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|Deception measures are a part of every military operation, and are also used to achieve political and economic  goals. The international media may be a target  for deceptive information at the operational level, being fed false stories and video that portrays tactical-level actions with the goal of influencing operational or even strategic decisions. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
 +
Forms of deception that support IW range from physical decoys and  electronic devices, to operational activities, to casualty “photo ops” staged for unsuspecting media personnel. Successful deception activities depend on the identification and exploitation of enemy information systems and networks, as well  as other “conduits” for introducing deceptive information. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Physical Destruction'''
 +
|Physical destruction, as an element of INFOWAR, involves measures to destroy critical components of the enemy’s information infrastructure. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|The OPFOR integrates all types of conventional and precision weapon systems to conduct the destructive fires, to include fixed- and rotary-wing aviation, cannon artillery, multiple rocket launchers, and surface-to-surface missiles. It can also utilize other means  of destruction, such as explosives delivered by special-purpose forces (SPF), insurgents, terrorists, or even co- opted civilians. Physical destruction activities can be integrated with jamming to maximize their effects. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Protection and Security Measures'''
 +
|The purpose of protection and security measures in INFOWAR is to protect one’s own information infrastructure, maintain one’s own capabilities for effective C2, and deny protected information to other actors. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|Protection and security  measures conducted as part of INFOWAR include—
 +
* Information collection, processing, and utilization.
 +
* Reconnaissance and counterreconnaissance.
 +
* Information and operations security.
 +
* Camouflage, concealment, cover, and deception.
 +
* Force protection.
 +
* Secure use of information-collection and –processing systems.
 +
An actor’s capability against its main opponent can come from a high-tech asset or a low-tech approach. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Perception Management'''
 +
|Perception management involves measures aimed at creating a perception of truth that furthers an actor’s objective. It integrates several widely differing activities that use a combination of true, false, misleading, or manipulated information. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|Enemy or foreign audiences, as well as the local population, may be targets of perception man­agement. Perception management can include misinformation, media manipulation, and psychological warfare. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
''Psychological warfare'' (PSYWAR) is the capa­bility and activities designed to influence se­lected friendly, neutral, and/or hostile target audiences’ attitudes and behaviors in support of the actor. PSYWAR can target either specific decision making systems or the entire informa­tion system of the target audience, while in­fluencing key communicators and decision mak­ers. Such attacks target an enemy’s perceived centers of gravity. For example, prolonging an operation and using all forms of media to show the devastation of conflict can sway public opi­nion against the effort. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
Many actors skillfully employ media and other neutral actors, such as NGOs, to influence further public and private perceptions. Actors can exploit the international media’s willingness to report information without independent and timely confirmation. Individuals such as agents of influence, sympathizers, and antiwar prote­sters are also employed advantageously to influence the enemy’s media, politicians, and citizenry. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:'''  Military: Military Functions; Information: Information Management; Infrastructure: Utility Level, Utilities Present.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-33. Information: intelligence
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' The product  resulting from the collection, processing, integration, evaluation, analysis, and  interpretation of available  information concerning foreign  nations, hostile or potentially hostile forces or elements, or areas of actual or poten­ tial operations. The term is also applied  to the activity  which results  in the product  and to the organizations engaged in such activity. (JP 2-0)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT)'''
 +
|Information of potential intelligence value that is available to the general public. (JP 2-0)
 +
 +
OSINT is derived from the systematic collection, processing, and analysis of publicly available, rele­vant information in response to intelligence requirements. (FM 2-0)
 +
|OSINT is produced from publicly available information that is collected, exploited, and disseminated in a timely  manner to an appro­priate audience for the purpose of addressing a specific intelligence requirement. (National Defense  Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2006)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Human        Intelligence (HUMINT)'''
 +
|A category of intelligence derived from information collected and provided by human sources. (JP 2-0)
 +
 +
HUMINT is the collection or foreign information— by a trained HUMINT collector—from people  and multimedia to identify elements, intentions, composition, strength, dispositions, tactics, equipment, personnel, and  capabilities. It uses human sources as a tool and a variety of collection methods, both passively and actively, to collect information. (FM 2-0)
 +
|Special-purpose forces (SPF) care a major source    of    human intelligence (HUMINT).
 +
 +
(FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Signals   Intelligence (SIGINT)'''
 +
|1.  A  category  of  intelligence  comprising either individually or in combination all communications intelligence, electronic intelligence, and foreign instrumentation signals intelligence, however transmitted. 2. Intelligence derived from communi­cations, electronic, and foreign instrumentation signals. (JP 1-02)
 +
 +
SIGINT is intelligence produced by exploiting for­eign communication systems and noncommunica­tions emitters. (JP 2-0)
 +
The SIGINT discipline is comprised of communica­tions intelligence (COMINT), electronic intelligence (ELINT), and foreign instrumentation signals intel­ligence (FISINT). (FM 2-0)
 +
|In  OPFOR  terminology, ''signals reconnaissance'' is an integral part of information war­fare. The overall scope of signals reconnais­sance includes the interception, analysis, and exploitation of electromagnetic (radio and radar) emissions, coupled with measures to disrupt or destroy the enemy’s radio and ra­dar assets. (FM 7-100.1)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Imagery  Intelligence(IMINT)'''
 +
|The technical, geographic, and intelligence information derived through the interpretation or analy­sis of imagery and collateral materials. (JP 2-03)
 +
|IMINT is intelligence derived from the exploi­tation of imagery collected by visual photo­graphy, infrared, lasers, multi-spectral sen­sors, and radar. These sensors produce im­ages of objects optically, electronically, or digitally on film, electronic display devices, or other media. (FM 2-0)
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:'''   Military: Military Functions; Social: Education Level; Information: Information Warfare, Information Management.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-34. Information: information management
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' ''Information Management'' is the science of using procedures and information systems to collect, process, store, display, disseminate, and protect knowledge products, data, and information. (FM 3-0). It employs both staff management and automatic processes to focus a vast array of information and make relevant information available to the right person at the right time. Effective information management—synchronized with reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition (RISTA) operations—enables commanders to gain and maintain information superiority. The level of Information management is defined by management, systems, and security. The three are intertwined and are therefore addressed as a composite capability in this subvariable.
 +
''Information Systems'': The equipment and facilities that collect, process, store, display and disseminate information. This includes computers—hardware and software—and communications, as well as policies and procedures for their use. (FM 3­
 +
 +
0) Information systems and information management appear similar because they are intertwined. The sophistication of the information systems largely determines the capability of military command and control (C2) and civil interconnectivity.
 +
''Information Security'': The protection of information and information systems against unauthorized access or modification of information, whether in storage, processing, or transit, and against denial of services to authorized users. (JP 3-13) Informa­tion security includes those measures necessary to detect, document, and counter such threats. Information security is com­ posed of computer security and communications security.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Setting'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Rudimentary'''
 +
|Individuals or small groups supported by state- sponsored institutions (military or civilian) and non-state international groups. '''Military''' uses computers, analog, Internet, cell phones, radios, satellite phones, etc. Limited-to-no military au­tomated information management systems. '''Commercial''', business, and finance stand­ alone systems. Communications systems sepa­rate but basic. 0 to 24% encrypted (secure).
 +
|''Relevant information'' is all information of importance to commanders and staffs in the exercise of command and control. (FM 3-0)
 +
''Information superiority'' is the operational advan­tage derived from the ability to collect, process, and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of infor­mation while exploiting or denying an adver­sary’s ability to do the same (JP 3-13).
 +
|-
 +
|'''Basic'''
 +
|Integrated digital information management sys­tems. '''Military:''' digitized: computerized reports, direct GPS and encryption  (selected),  direct sensor-to-shooter links, laser range-finders, Inter­ net, broadcast tactical warning systems. '''Com­mercial''', business, communications and finance systems linked locally but not integrated. 25% to 50% encrypted (secure).
 +
|Allows commanders to take advantage of oppor­tunities, while denying adversary commanders the information needed  to make timely  and ac­ curate decisions or leading them to make deci­sions favorable to friendly forces.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Medium'''
 +
|Windows of information domination. '''Military''': integrated battlefield management systems, integrated C2, navigation, fire control, RISTA, image, maps, video, encrypted to battalion level, with or without  SATCOM, GPS to squad level. Some '''commercial''', business, communications and finance systems integrated locally, others linked. Some linked internationally. 51% to 75% encrypted (secure).
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|'''Advanced'''
 +
|Advanced (state-of-the-art) information systems. Maintains information superiority. Creates condi­tions that allow commanders to shape the OE and enhance the effects  of all elements  of com­ bat power. '''Military''': U.S. Joint  Tactical Informa­tion Distribution System (JTIDS)  and/or Blue (& Red) Force Tracker or foreign equivalent. Tech­nological advancements in automated informa­tion systems  and communications allow  com­manders to see the battlefield as actions unfold, near real-time, and to rapidly pass information across their  AOs. '''Commercial''', business, communications, and finance systems inte­grated locally and internationally. 76%  to 90% encrypted (secure).
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Military: Military Functions; Social: Education Level; Information: Information Warfare; Infrastructure: Utility Level.
 +
|}
 +
 +
=== Infrastructure Variable ===
 +
The Infrastructure variable is composed of the basic facilities, services, and installations needed for the functioning of a community or society. The degradation or destruction of infrastructure will impact the entire OE, especially the Political, Military, Economic, Social, and Information variables. This variable also reflects the infrastructure sophistication of an OE. The specific infrastructure subvariables and their settings represent replicable conditions that may be present within an OE and are depicted in table 3-35. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3- 36 through 3-41.
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-35. Infrastructure variable and subvariable settings
 +
|'''Variable'''
 +
| colspan="6" |'''Infrastructure'''
 +
|-
 +
|Subvariable
 +
|Construc­ tion  Pattern
 +
|Urban Zones
 +
|Urbanized  Building Density
 +
|Utilities Present
 +
|Utility Level
 +
|Transportation Architecture
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="7" |     
 +
 +
Subvariable Settings
 +
|Dense, Random
 +
|City Core
 +
|Low
 +
|Power
 +
|Non-Existent
 +
|Primitive
 +
|-
 +
|Close Orderly Block
 +
|Core Periphery
 +
|Medium
 +
|Water
 +
|Degraded
 +
|Moderate
 +
|-
 +
|Strip Area
 +
|High-Rise Residential
 +
|High
 +
|Sewage
 +
|Developed
 +
|Complex
 +
|-
 +
|Shantytown
 +
|Low-Rise Residential
 +
|
 +
|Services and Transportation
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|
 +
|Commercial Area
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|
 +
|Industrial Area
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|
 +
|Military Area
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 
|}
 
|}

Revision as of 21:03, 20 April 2017

Definition: Describes forces or groups that are distinct from regular armed forces of any country, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission (JP 1-02 and FM 3-07). These forces or groups may also operate in a combination of two or more of the subvariable settings below. (Not government forces.)
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Insurgent Forces An insurgency is an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. (JP 3-05)

Insurgent forces are groups that conduct irregu­ lar or unconventional warfare within the borders of their country in order to undermine or overthrow a constituted government or civil authority.

The distinction between terrorists and insur­ gents is often blurred because of the tactics employed by each. Some terrorists groups have become insurgent organizations, while insurgent organizations have used terror tactics. An insur­ gent organization may use more than one form of tactics and, based on its strategy, its actions could cut across the entire spectrum of war­ fare—employing terror, guerrilla, and conven­ tional military tactics to achieve its goals. Typi­ cally, most insurgent groups use the first two.
Guerrilla Forces A guerrilla force is a group of irregular, predominantly indigenous personnel organized along military lines to conduct military and pa­ ramilitary operations in enemy-held, hostile, or denied territory. (JP 3-05) Some guerrilla organizations may constitute a paramilitary arm of an insurgent movement, while others may pursue guerrilla warfare inde­ pendently from or loosely affiliated with an in­ surgent organization. Compared to insurgent organizations as a whole, guerrilla organizations have a more military-like structure. (FM 7-100.4)
Criminal Criminal    organizations    are    non-ideological Criminal  organizations  may  employ  criminal
Organizations groups of people organized for the purpose of

acquiring money by illegal means.

actions, terror tactics, and militarily unconven­

tional methods to achieve their goals. When mutual interests exist, criminal organizations may combine efforts with insurgent and/or guer­ rilla organizations controlling or operating in the same area. A congruence of interests can also result in criminal organizations having a close relationship with an established government. (FM 7-100.4)

Definition: Describes forces or groups that are distinct from regular armed forces of any country, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission (JP 1-02 and FM 3-07). These forces or groups may also operate in a combination of two or more of the subvariable settings below. (Not government forces.)
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Insurgent Forces An insurgency is an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. (JP 3-05)

Insurgent forces are groups that conduct irregu­ lar or unconventional warfare within the borders of their country in order to undermine or overthrow a constituted government or civil authority.

The distinction between terrorists and insur­ gents is often blurred because of the tactics employed by each. Some terrorists groups have become insurgent organizations, while insurgent organizations have used terror tactics. An insur­ gent organization may use more than one form of tactics and, based on its strategy, its actions could cut across the entire spectrum of war­ fare—employing terror, guerrilla, and conven­ tional military tactics to achieve its goals. Typi­ cally, most insurgent groups use the first two.
Guerrilla Forces A guerrilla force is a group of irregular, predominantly indigenous personnel organized along military lines to conduct military and pa­ ramilitary operations in enemy-held, hostile, or denied territory. (JP 3-05) Some guerrilla organizations may constitute a paramilitary arm of an insurgent movement, while others may pursue guerrilla warfare inde­ pendently from or loosely affiliated with an in­ surgent organization. Compared to insurgent organizations as a whole, guerrilla organizations have a more military-like structure. (FM 7-100.4)
Criminal Criminal    organizations    are    non-ideological Criminal  organizations  may  employ  criminal
Organizations groups of people organized for the purpose of

acquiring money by illegal means.

actions, terror tactics, and militarily unconven­

tional methods to achieve their goals. When mutual interests exist, criminal organizations may combine efforts with insurgent and/or guer­ rilla organizations controlling or operating in the same area. A congruence of interests can also result in criminal organizations having a close relationship with an established government. (FM 7-100.4)

As discussed in chapter 2, the operational variables provide key design considerations for the exercise planner. Together, these variables comprise all the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect any military operation or any training exercise. They provide a comprehensive view of an operational environment (OE), real or simulated, that realistically challenges the training unit, its leaders, and Soldiers in the execution of their missions and tasks. This chapter describes the variables, subvariables, and linkages that can be used to develop comprehensive OE conditions for training exercises.

Operational Environment

An OE is the complete set of conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the decisions of the unit commander and the deployment and employment of military forces, as well as other instruments of national power. It encompasses all the variables that affect where Soldiers will train or fight.

The OE represented in a training event must be appropriate for the training objectives. What constitutes a realistic and relevant OE for a particular training event depends on how much the unit knows about where it can expect to be deployed. On the one hand, the unit may know the specific area of operations (AO) where it will deploy or be able to anticipate such a specific deployment. In that case, the goal should be to create training conditions that replicate as closely as possible the actual conditions of the specific OE associated with that AO. On the other hand, the unit may need to train to accomplish its core capabilities in any of a number of possible OEs. In that case, it is appropriate to design an OE that represents a composite of the types of conditions that might exist in a number of actual OEs in which the unit might find itself involved in full spectrum operations.

In either case, the design and structure of the OE for any training event consists of three main components: actual data, projected data, and intelligent compromise. All that differs is the proportion of each. The term for this combination of actual data, intelligent compromise, and projected information that creates the conditions for any training event is the Contemporary Operational Environment (COE). The COE is the collective set of conditions, derived from a composite of actual worldwide conditions, that pose realistic challenges for training, leader development, and capabilities development for Army forces and their joint, intergovernmental, interagency and multinational partners. The COE is a collective term for the relevant aspects of contemporary OEs that exist or could exist today or in the, near- and mid- term future (next 10 years). It is a composite of all the operational variables and actors that create the conditions, circumstances, and influence that can affect military operations—and therefore serve as the conditions necessary for training and leader development. Most importantly, it is not a totally artificial construct created for training; rather, it is a representative composite based on the characteristics of one or more actual OEs in this contemporary timeframe.

Variables, Subvariables, AND Settings

The foundation of the exercise planner’s development of the appropriate OE for a training exercise is the eight operational variables that reside in all OEs and have the greatest impact on military forces. The strength of these variables is that they are flexible and scalable, capable of replicating any OE that U.S. forces might encounter along the full spectrum of conflict. These variables are Political, Military, Econom- ic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time (PMESII-PT). The variables relate to specific situations as well as threat capabilities. They are relevant to every echelon of command and every military mission. While individual variables do not dominate every environment, they are all present and require careful consideration. Ignoring one or more of these variables can negatively impact military missions and the realism of training conditions in an exercise.

The taxonomy of categorizing the components of any OE begins with the eight PMESII-PT. The next level down from the variables is the associated subvariables, which show either a menu or a range of choices called subvariable settings. In a few cases, a subvariable may break down into another level of specificity, called sub-subvariables, which have their own choices of settings. Each variable, associated subvariables and sub-subvariables, and their settings have specific definitions to assist the planner in building the desired OE.

Note. The listed subvariables and associated settings are not necessarily all inclusive. As events, technology, and time change, existing subvariables may need to be modified or new ones added. Even in conducting an operational environment assessment (OEA) for an actual OE, additional subvariables may be necessary. The intent in this TC is to provide a basic guideline of areas that are important and may need to be considered in designing a training exercise.

The remaining portion of this chapter will provide a detailed breakdown of each operational variable and their associated components in the order of the memory aid PMESII-PT. The entry for each variable begins with the definition of that variable. Then, for each variable, there is an initial table providing an overview of the associated subvariables and subvariable settings. This is followed by individual tables for each subvariable, providing the subvariable definition and definitions of possible subvariable settings. The subvariable tables also include “considerations and additional notes” usually pertaining to individual set- tings. Finally, the subvariable tables list other variables and subvariables whose settings would most likely be linked to the subvariable described in the table. However, these are not the only possible links that may exist.

Exercise planners should use these tables as a tool to select the subvariable or sub-subvariable settings that create the appropriate conditions for their specific exercise. These specific conditions, along with scenarios and road to war, are based upon approved training objectives, the training unit’s METL, and de- sired exercise-training outcomes. When training for an actual OE in a specific geographical area, the exercise planner can use a TRISA-produced OEA that indicates the settings required to replicate that particular OE (see chapter 2).

The impacts of the PMESII-PT variables on exercise design are significant. As discussed in chapter 2, the PMESII-PT variables and their subvariable and sub-subvariable settings provide a comprehensive framework to determine the training conditions within an OE. These conditions can affect the training unit and OPFOR positively and negatively across the full spectrum of operations as well as at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Using these variables assists the commander in training his unit in a realistic and challenging environment.

Political Variable

The Political variable describes the distribution of responsibility and power at all levels of governance—formally constituted authorities, as well as informal political powers. The political variable includes influential political groups and the collective attitude of the population towards the U.S. The specific Political subvariables and their settings are depicted in table 3-1. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-2 through 3-6.

Table 3-1. Political variable and subvariable settings
Variable Political
Subvariable Attitude toward the United States Centers of Political Power Type of Government Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy Influential Political Groups
     

Subvariable Settings

Friendly Tribal Dictatorship/ Authoritarian Effective: Stable Pro- Government
Neutral/ Ambivalent Town/District Theocracy Vulnerable: Recovering Opposition
Hostile Provincial Representative Government Vulnerable: Failing Coalition
National/ Regional Anarchy Crisis: Failing
Crisis: Failed
Table 3-2. Political: attitude toward the United States
Definition: Describes the attitude of the government toward the United States and specifically toward the presence and actions of U.S. and/or coalition forces. (Once established, this subvariable manifests itself in the scenario in the form of role player instructions or combat instructions to the OPFOR.)
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Friendly Describes an overall favorable, positive recep­ tion of the U.S. and/or coalition forces activities, presence, and initiatives. Role-player sub-instructions limited to 20% of subversive activities against the training unit's intentions. Takes the form of infiltration, over­ looking of criminal activities, active support of OPFOR. Also necessitates 20% of role-player support in the form of tips. Limits infiltration and scripted sabotage against the training unit’s actions. High level of tips (4 to 5 per day) and populace cooperation against OPFOR activities.
Neutral/Ambivalent Describes an undecided reception of the U.S. and/or coalition forces’ activities, presence, and initiatives. Role-player sub-instructions limited to 30% of the scenario population engaged in some form of subversive activities against the training unit's intentions. Takes the form of infiltration, over­ looking of criminal activities, and active support of OPFOR. Also necessitates 15% of role-player support in the form of tips. Increased infiltration and scripted sabotage against the training unit's actions. Moderate level of tips, (2 to 3 per day) and populace cooperation against OPFOR ac­ tivities.
Hostile Describes an unfavorable, negative reaction to the U.S. and/or coalition forces’ activities, pres­ ence, and initiatives. Role-player sub-instructions limited to 40% of the scenario population engaged in some form of subversive activities against the training unit's intentions. Takes the form of infiltration, over­ looking of criminal activities, and active support of OPFOR. Heavy infiltration and scripted sabo­ tage against the training unit's actions. Low level of tips (1 to 2 per day) and populace coopera­ tion against OPFOR activities.
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Social: Education Level; Economic: Employment Status.
Table 3-3. Political: centers of political power
Definition: Determines the types of bureaucratic divisions and/or centers of power within a government. Also includes the level of governmental span of control from tribal to regional/national level. An example would be tribal and town/district, with a primary focus on town/district matters.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Tribal Tribal focus, limited government or government of limited influence. Characterized by tribal eld­ ers, religious figureheads. Requires tribal elders, some town element man­ ning, and portions of the other role-playing re­ quirements element (such as NGOs, and host or allied nation military presence).
Town/District Town and some district focus in the government day-to-day operations. Requires district and town elements.
Provincial Provincial and minimal cross-border focus by the local and provincial government. Some regional (international) elements and story themes present in the scenario. Govern­ ment role-players adopt a national focus at the expense of local and tribal needs. Depending upon the government type and status, up to one full role-player provincial government, district, town, and other group will be required to fully replicate the level of government specified.
National/Regional International and cross-border focus based on the existence of multiple regions or national borders in the scenario OE. Also  requires  provincial,  district,  town,  other elements (manned at some level of capacity).
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Social: Education level, Ethnic Diversity: Infrastructure: Transportation.
Table 3-4. Political: type of government
Definition: Determines the type of government structure and associated behaviors encountered.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Dictatorship/Authoritarian A mode of government characterized by the existence of a single ruler or group who arro­ gate to themselves and monopolize power in the state, exercising it without restraint. For live training requires robust domestic security apparatus, bureaucratic institutions, and bloated role-player government structure (1.5 normal manning).
Theocracy A government ruled by or subject to religious authority. A system of government in which God or a deity is held to be the civil ruler. Can only occur in the first two categories of social religious diversity.
Representative A representative form of government—either Requires   specific,   prominent   influencers,
Government democratic,   republic,   or   parliamentary   in

form—with elected representatives and ex­ ecutives. All politics are governed by will of people and government has limited, defined powers over the population.

council members be present in the scenario

(in addition to the normal role-player govern­ ment positions).

Anarchy Absence of any form of political authority. Political disorder and confusion. Absence of any cohesive principle, such as a common standard or purpose. Tribal and religious role-players present in scenario. Small percentage of disenfran­ chised or former government officials with little influence.
Subvariable Links: Economic: Illegal Economic Activity, Social: Education Level, Religious Diversity, Criminal Activity.
Table 3-5. Political: government effectiveness and legitimacy
Definition: Effectiveness refers to the capability of the government to work with society to assure the provision of order and public goods and services. Legitimacy refers to the perception by important segments of society that the government is exer­ cising state power in ways that are reasonably fair and in the interests of the nation as a whole.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Effective: Stable The government is able and willing to provide adequate security and essential services to significant portions of its country’s population. It provides military and police services that secure borders and limit crime, while being reasonable, equitable, and without major violation of human rights. It provides basic services that generally meet demand. Political institutions, processes, norms, and leaders are acceptable to the citizenry and ensure adequate response to citi­ zen needs. For CTC replication, full complement of all spe­ cified role-player government positions required in the provincial, district and town elements. Government manning determined by the type of government selected. Defined as 60-75% of all government services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infrastructures present and functioning. Limited civil unrest. Limited gover­ nance issues and themes (no more than three). 1-2 instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Vulnerable: The government is recovering from crisis and The government is only partially manned and
Recovering still either unable or unwilling to provide ade­

quate security and essential services to all of the population. The legitimacy of the central government may still be in question. Limited civil unrest.

capable of administering its area. For CTC rep­

lication, requires 3/4 complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 40-60% of all government services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infra­ structures present and functioning. Moderate governance issues and themes (4-6, 2 of which are interrelated). Multiple (3-4) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.

Vulnerable: Failing The government is becoming either unable or unwilling to provide adequate security and es­ sential services to significant portions of the population. The legitimacy of the central gov­ ernment is falling into question. Increasing civil unrest. The government is only partially manned and capable of administering its area. For CTC rep­ lication, requires 3/4 complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 40-60% of all government services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infra­ structures present and functioning. Moderate governance issues and themes (4-6, 2 of which are interrelated). Multiple (3-4) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Crisis: Failing The central government does not exert effective control over all the country’s territory. It is be­ coming unable or unwilling to provide security and essential services for significant portions of the population. The central government may be weak, nonexistent, or simply unable or unwilling to provide security or basic services. There is great risk of violent internal conflict. The government is partially manned and mini­ mally capable of administering its area. For CTC replication requires 1/2 or fewer complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 20-40% of all gov­ ernment services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infrastructures present and func­ tioning. High level  of  governance issues and themes (8-10, 4 of which are interrelated). Mul­ tiple (5-6) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Crisis: Failed The central government does not exert effective control over the country’s territory. It is unable to provide security and essential services for sig­ nificant portions of the population. The central government is weak, nonexistent, or simply unable to provide security or basic services. Violent internal conflict is a reality. The government is partially manned and largely incapable of administering its area. For CTC replication requires 1/4 or fewer complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 20-40% of all gov­ ernment services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infrastructures present and func­ tioning. High level  of  governance issues and themes (8-10, 4 of which are interrelated). Mul­ tiple (5-6) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Subvariable Links: Political: Governance, Stability; Infrastructure: Utilities Present, Services Level.
Table 3-6. Political: influential political groups
Definition: Describes the number and specifies the interaction and influence of various political groups within the country, region, province, district, or town. Helps define the level of government cohesion and strife within the government.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Pro-Government Major political parties generally support the government in power. Minimal dissent and is­ sues of contention. Presented and manifested in OE through script­ ing and role-player sub-instructions. If desired, minor issues may result in slight disruption of essential government functions if unaddressed or not resolved by the training unit.
Coalitions Different political groups with competing inter­ ests and vary in their support of the government. Establishes conditions for moderate disruption of essential government functions and social volatility. Requires the establishment of up to three differ­ ent political groups with at least two competing interests to be written into the scenario key events, back-stories, and role-player sub- instructions. Conflicts should be executed or presented during the training exercise, using power bases and role-player influencers. Issues should result in the moderate disruption of es­ sential government functions if unaddressed or not resolved by the training unit.
Opposition Different political groups are opposed to the government with competing interests. Estab­ lishes conditions for major disruption of essen­ tial government functions and social volaMilitary VariabletiltitaryVariables the establishment of up to three differ­ ent political groups with at least two competing interests to be written into the scenario key events, back-stories, and role-player sub- instructions. Conflicts should be executed or presented during the training exercise, using power bases and role-player influencers. Issues should result in the major disruption of essential government functions if unaddressed or not resolved by the training unit.
Subvariable Links: Social: Social Volatility, Education Level; Economic: Economic Diversity, Employment Status.

Military Variable

The Military variable explores the military and/or paramilitary capabilities of all relevant actors (enemy, friendly, and neutral) in a given OE. This includes nonmilitary armed and unarmed combatants. The variable focuses on giving the exercise planner the ability to design appropriate OPFOR units for full spectrum operations. The specific military subvariables and their settings are depicted in table 3-7. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-8 through 3-13.

Table 3-7. Military variable and subvariable settings
Variable Military
Subvariable Military Forces Government Military Forces Non-State Paramilitary Forces Unarmed Comba­ tants Nonmilitary Armed Combatants Military Functions
           

Subvariable Settings

Predominantly Tank and Mechanized Infantry Operating Independently Insurgent Forces Information Warfare Personnel Predominantly Neutral C2
Predominantly Infantry Supplementing Regular Military Guerrilla Forces Media (Affiliated) Predominantly Friendly Maneuver
None Operating as Combat Forces Criminal Organizations Medical (Affiliated) Predominantly Hostile and Supporting Enemy Information Warfare
Private Security Organizations Active Sup­ porters Undetermined RISTA
Coerced or Unwitting Fire Support
Financiers Protection
See complete settings at table 3-11. Logistics
Table 3-8. Military: military forces
Definition: Specifies the types and sizes of military forces present within an OE.
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Predominantly Tank and Mechanized Infantry Regular military forces consisting predominantly (at least 40%) of tank and mechanized infantry forces with some infantry (non-mechanized). For specific tier level weapon systems, refer to Worldwide Equipment Guide (WEG) available online at https://www.us.army.mil/suite/files/14751393.
Predominantly Infantry Regular military forces consisting predominantly (more than 60%) of infantry forces (non­ mechanized) with some tank and mechanized infantry forces.
None No regular military forces present.
Subvariable Links: Social: Education Level; Economic: Employment Status; Terrain: Landforms.
Table 3-9. Military: government paramilitary forces
Definition: Describes government forces that are distinct from regular armed forces, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission.
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Operating Independently Not subordinate to or affiliated with regular mili­ tary forces. May include organizations such as police, bor­ der guards, customs agents, and other internal security forces.
Supplementing Regular Military Affiliated with or subordinate to regular military forces but performing primarily non-combat roles. Same as above with the exception that these forces are either part of the military force or can be mobilized to support the military force.
Operating as Combat Forces Affiliated with or subordinate to regular military forces and performing combat missions. (Units are equipped with light weapons and sometimes heavy weapons and armored vehicles.) Same as above with the exception that these forces are trained and equipped for combat missions. Depending on the OE, they may be equipped with light or heavy weapon systems.
Subvariable Links: Military: Non-State Paramilitary Forces; Economic: Employment Status.
Table 3-10. Military: non-state paramilitary forces
Definition: Describes forces or groups that are distinct from regular armed forces of any country, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission (JP 1-02 and FM 3-07). These forces or groups may also operate in a combination of two or more of the subvariable settings below. (Not government forces.)
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Insurgent Forces An insurgency is an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. (JP 3-05)

Insurgent forces are groups that conduct irregu­ lar or unconventional warfare within the borders of their country in order to undermine or overthrow a constituted government or civil authority.

The distinction between terrorists and insur­ gents is often blurred because of the tactics employed by each. Some terrorists groups have become insurgent organizations, while insurgent organizations have used terror tactics. An insur­ gent organization may use more than one form of tactics and, based on its strategy, its actions could cut across the entire spectrum of war­ fare—employing terror, guerrilla, and conven­ tional military tactics to achieve its goals. Typi­ cally, most insurgent groups use the first two.
Guerrilla Forces A guerrilla force is a group of irregular, predominantly indigenous personnel organized along military lines to conduct military and pa­ ramilitary operations in enemy-held, hostile, or denied territory. (JP 3-05) Some guerrilla organizations may constitute a paramilitary arm of an insurgent movement, while others may pursue guerrilla warfare inde­ pendently from or loosely affiliated with an in­ surgent organization. Compared to insurgent organizations as a whole, guerrilla organizations have a more military-like structure. (FM 7-100.4)
Criminal Criminal    organizations    are    non-ideological Criminal  organizations  may  employ  criminal
Organizations groups of people organized for the purpose of

acquiring money by illegal means.

actions, terror tactics, and militarily unconven­

tional methods to achieve their goals. When mutual interests exist, criminal organizations may combine efforts with insurgent and/or guer­ rilla organizations controlling or operating in the same area. A congruence of interests can also result in criminal organizations having a close relationship with an established government. (FM 7-100.4)

Table 3-11. Military: unarmed combatants
Definition: Specifies the types of unarmed personnel who, given the right conditions, may decide to purposely and materially support hostile military or paramilitary forces in ways that do not involve possessing or using weapons. Even unarmed indi­ viduals who are coerced into performing or supporting hostile actions and those who do so unwittingly can, in some cases, be categorized as combatants. (FM 7-100.4)
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Information Warfare Personnel Self-explanatory. The intent of this subvariable is to provide a menu list from which to select those personnel or activities that provide direct or indirect support to an insurgency or similar activity. Providing these selected settings as part of an insurgency in an OE en­ hances a unit’s training by experiencing a more complete, realistic, and complex environment.
Media (Affiliated) Self-explanatory.
Medical (Affiliated) Self-explanatory.
Active Supporters Self-explanatory.
Coerced, Unwitting Supporters Self-explanatory.
Financiers Self-explanatory.
Suppliers Self-explanatory.
Lookouts Self-explanatory.
Couriers Self-explanatory.
IED Factory Workers Self-explanatory.
Intelligence Collection Self-explanatory.
Targeting Information Self-explanatory.
Leaders (Religious, Political, Secular, Tribal, Cultural) Self-explanatory.
Technicians and Specialists Self-explanatory.
Criminal (Affiliated) Self-explanatory.
Transporters Self-explanatory.
Asylum Providers/Protectors Self-explanatory.
Recruiters Self-explanatory.
Camera/Video Operators Self-explanatory.
IED Trigger Personnel Self-explanatory.
Other Affiliated Support Self-explanatory.
None No unarmed combatants present.
Subvariable Links: Political: Attitude toward the United States; Economic: Economic Activity; Military: Non-State Paramilita­ ry Forces, Military Functions.
Table 3-12. Military: nonmilitary armed combatants
Definition: Describes nonmilitary personnel who are armed but not part of an organized paramilitary or military structure. Nevertheless, they may be disgruntled and hostile. They may also be neutral or they may support either the enemy or friend­ ly (U.S. or host nation) forces. Any number of catalysts might cause them to pick a side or change sides. Their decision may or may not remain permanent. (FM 7-100.4)
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Predominantly Neutral At least 50 percent neutral, with the remainder split between friendly, hostile, or undetermined.
Predominantly Friendly At least 50 percent friendly to U.S. or host na­ tion forces, with the remainder split between neutral, hostile, or undetermined.
Predominantly Hostile and Support­ ing Enemy At least 50 percent hostile to U.S. or host nation forces or supporting the enemy, with the re­ mainder split between neutral, friendly, or unde­ termined.
Undetermined Unable to categorize relationship. This setting may be used to support training objectives related to determining or responding correctly to nonmilitary armed combatants whose affiliation is unknown.
Subvariable Links: Military: Unarmed Combatants; Social: Education Level; Economic: Economic Status.
Table 3-13. Military: military functions
Definition: A military function is a group of related tasks, activities, capabilities, operations, processes, and organizations that fulfill the specific military purpose for which they all exist. When integrated with other such functions, they contribute to the accomplishment of larger missions.

The subvariable settings (functions) listed below exist in varying degrees in most military organizations, as well as in some paramilitary organizations. Thus, military functions as sub-subvariables can have settings on a scale of High, Medium, or Low, defined as follows:

· High: Can conduct sustained, complex, synchronized tasks of the selected military function; ability to influence friendly forces is not limited to the theater of operations; and/or associated equipment is predominantly Tier 1, as specified in the Worldwide Equipment Guide (WEG).

· Medium: Can conduct limited, complex, synchronized tasks of the selected military function; ability to influence friendly forces is primarily limited to the theater of operations; and/or associated equipment is predominantly Tier 2, as specified in the WEG.

· Low: Cannot conduct complex, synchronized tasks of the selected military function; ability to influence friendly forces is limited to local, tactical impact; and/or associated equipment is predominantly Tier 3 and below, as specified in the WEG.

Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Command and Command and control (C2) is the actions of com-
Control manders, command groups, and staffs of military

headquarters to maintain continual combat readi­ ness and combat efficiency of forces, to plan and prepare for combat operations, and to provide leadership and direction during the execution of assigned missions. (FM 7-100.1)

Maneuver Maneuver is the employment of forces in the oper­ ational area through movement in combination with fires to achieve a position of advantage in respect to the enemy in order to accomplish the mission. (JP 3-0) This function includes direct fire, as well as mobility support and countermobility operations.
INFOWAR Information warfare (INFOWAR) is the specifically planned and integrated actions taken to achieve an information advantage at critical points and times. (FM 7-100.1) This function is linked to Information: Informa­ tion Warfare, which addresses each of the seven elements of information warfare.
RISTA Reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition (RISTA) is the combination of capabilities, operations, and activities using all available means to obtain information concerning foreign nations; areas of actual or potential opera­ tions; and/or the strength, capabilities, location, status, nature of operations, and intentions of hos­ tile or potentially hostile forces or elements. It in­ cludes production of intelligence resulting from the collection, processing, integration, evaluation, analysis, and interpretation of such information. It also includes detection, identification, and location of a target in sufficient detail to permit the effective employment of weapons. RISTA  includes  UAVs used for reconnais­sance.

This function is linked to Information: Intelligence.

Fire Support Fire support is the collective and coordinated use of target acquisition, indirect fire weapons, aircraft, and other lethal and nonlethal means in support of operational or tactical objectives. (FM 7-100.1) Includes offensive use of CBRN weapons.

This function is linked to the target acquisition portion of the RISTA function (above).

Protection Protection is the preservation of the effectiveness and survivability of mission-related military and nonmilitary personnel (combatants and noncomba­ tants), equipment, facilities, information, and infra­ structure against an adversary’s attempts to dam­ age, degrade, or negate them and measures to minimize the effects of such threats. The protec­ tion function includes survivability measures, air and missile defense, and CBRN defense. It also includes information protection and security meas­ ures, which are an element of information warfare This function is linked to Information: Informa­ tion Warfare: Protection and Security Meas­ ures and, therefore, to the Information War­ fare setting under Military: Military Functions (above). It is also linked to Information Secu­ rity as a subset of Information: Information Management and to the Infrastructure varia­ ble.
Logistics Logistics is the support activities required to sus­ tain operations. (FM 7-100.1)
Subvariable Links: See notes on individual military functions, above.

Economic Variable

The Economic variable encompasses individual and group behaviors related to producing, distributing, and consuming resources. Specific factors impacting behavior may include economic diversity and employment opportunities within an OE. Other factors include black market or underground economies, which are alternative structures indicating weaknesses in the mainstream economy. Such factors influence people’s decisions to alter or support the existing order. These decisions, if unresolved through legitimate political means, can lead to conflict. The specific economic subvariables and their settings represent replic- able economic conditions that may be present within an OE and are depicted in table 3-14. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-15 through 3-19.

Table 3-14. Economic variable and subvariable settings
Variable Economic
Subvariable Economic Diversity Employment Status Economic Activity Illegal Economic Activity Banking and Finance
     

Subvariable Settings

Multiple Industries (None Predominant) High Unemployment Predominantly Legal Smuggling Informal
Multiple Industries (Single Predominant) Medium Unemployment Mixed Theft Developing Formal
Single Industry Present Low Unemployment Predominantly Illegal Gang Advanced Formal
Black Market
Mixed
Piracy
Table 3-15. Economic: economic diversity
Definition: Describes three different economic industries (mining, manufacturing, or agricultural) and their relative mix that may exist in a given country.
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Multiple Industries

(None Predominant)

Describes the condition where multiple industries are present in an economy. All three indus­tries are roughly  equivalent  in  terms of their overall contribution to the overall economy. For live training exercises, a series of props, role-player instructions and scripted activities are required that replicate a complete agricul­ture, mining, manufacturing infrastructure to include harvesting, processing, and distribution. Minimum material requirements include one barn, one grain silo, one planting field; one mineshaft and distribution site; one factory with one shop selling at least one specific product line and one distribution center.
Multiple Industries

(Single Predominant)

Describes the condition where multiple industries are present in an economy but one of the industries is more  productive  relative to the others. Same as above with the exception that the se­lected predominant industry will require at least

twice the amount of props and role-players to replicate predominance in that nation’s econo­my. Any single industry selected as predominant will cause exercise planners to ensure the pre­ponderance of storylines, themes, and role- players are focused on that industry and all of its associated parts.

Single Industry Present Describes the condition of a single, economical­ly significant industry. Same as above except that the selected pre­dominant industry is the only one present and should also be at least twice the size of the multiple industry setting. The industry theme selected acts as the focal point for all economic storylines, themes, and role-players focused on that industry and its sustainment.
Subvariable Links: Economic: Employment Status; Social: Education Level; Infrastructure: Urban Zones, Transportation Architecture.
Table 3-16. Economic: employment status
Definition: Represents the overall employment status of the populace.
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
High Unemployment 2/3 unemployment. For live training exercises it manifests itself in specific role assignments and sub-instructions for role-players.
Moderate Unemployment 1/2 unemployment.
Low Unemployment Majority employed.
Subvariable Links: Economic: Economic Diversity; Social: Education Level; Political: Government Effectiveness and Legi­ timacy.
Table 3-17. Economic: economic activity
Definition: Describes the type of economic activity present in an AO.

(Manifests itself in a live training environment in the form of specific activities, number of role-players required to replicate the behavior, and scenario design instructions in the form of role descriptions for different activities.)

Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Predominantly Illegal Economy lacking many products and services; black market operations robbery, smuggling, and organized crime are widespread. For live training exercises, it will require a role- player special mission element to replicate those conditions. Or will require sufficient role- player instructions and character instructions to replicate these activities. Black market and smuggling are represented by three or more types of illicit goods being traded—one or more necessary to population well being.
Mixed Legal economy mixed with some smuggling and black market trade in controlled items. Will require half role-player special mission element to replicate limited black market and some organized crime. Will also require at least two smuggling or black market trading themes written into the scenario storyline in the form of role-player instructions. Also requires govern­ment ministers and regulation (customs) minis­ tries to regulate economy.
Predominantly Legal Limited  black market, robbery, or organized crime activities. Types of crime replicated: petty theft and limited drug or single item smuggling, distribution and sales. Requires up to 2 role-player special mis­sion elements worth of personnel to populate district markets and replicate regional trade and limited black market activity. Also requires gov­ernment ministers and regulation (customs) ministries to regulate economy.
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Economic: Employment Status; Social: Education Level, Social Volatility.
Table 3-18. Economic: illegal economic activity
Definition: Describes the predominant type of illegal economic activities present in the AO.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Smuggling The acquisition, distribution, and sale of a con­ trolled, restricted, or forbidden item. Requires the replication of all aspects of the distribution chain, from suppliers to mules, to retail customers. For live Socitraining exercises, each activity represented requires 1/4 of the role-player special mission element to replicate the activity, and role-player instructions, in addi­ tion to scenario storyline.
Theft/Looting Small  theft rings that acquire and distribute stolen property. Same as above.
Gang/Organized Crime Criminal activities such as bribery, coercion, thuggery, protection racket, and inter-gang riva­lry. Same as above.
Black Market The underground economy or black market is a market where all commerce is conducted with­out regard to taxation, law, or regulations of trade. Same as above.
Piracy Robbery, hijacking, or other acts of violence on the high seas. Can also include acts committed in other major bodies of water or on a shore. Same as above.
Mixed/Multiple Activities Multiple above-mentioned activities present in the AO. Same as above in additio representation by multiple key events occurring during the scena­rio play.
Subvariable Links: Political: Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy; Economic: Economic Activity, Social: Criminal Activity.
Table 3-19. Economic: banking and finance
Definition: A bank is a financial institution whose primary activity is to act as a payment agent for customers and to borrow and lend money. It is an institution for receiving, keeping, and lending money in hopes of repayment. A private moneylender offers small personal loans at high rates of interest, usually higher rates than the market rate charged on credit cards or on bank overdrafts.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Informal A private moneylender type arrangement. For live training exercises, currency require­ ments are enough denominations of currency to issue 20 bills of various denominations to each role-player present in the AO. Requires at least one moneylender, with currency per town.
Developing-Formal Mixture of private moneylenders and banking infrastructure. Same as above. Also includes a bank building with props per town.
Advanced-Formal Banking infrastructure prevalent throughout the AO. Private money lending restricted to crimi­ nal/gang activity. Same as above.
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Social: Education Level, Information: Public Communications Media.

Social Variable

The Social variable describes the cultural, religious, and ethnic makeup within an OE and the beliefs, values, customs, and behaviors of society members. Societies are comprised of structured and overlapping groups and institutions, each with relative statuses and roles that support, enable, and provide opportunity to achieve personal or community expectations. Important characteristics of a social system include population demographics, migration trends, and diversity of religious and ethnic groups. Understanding these complex interrelationships in a society is vitally important for successful military missions. The specific social subvariables and their settings represent replicable social conditions that may be present within an OE and are depicted in table 3-20. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-21 through 3-29.

Table 3-20. Social variable and subvariable settings
Variable Social
Subvariable Demographic Mix Social Volatility Education Level Ethnic Diversity Religious Diversity
   

Subvariable Settings

Balanced Low Limited Single (Non- Competitive) Single (Non- Competitive)
Unbalanced, Gender Moderate Moderate Multiple (Competitive, Single        Pre­ dominant) Multiple (Competitive, Single Predominant)
Unbalanced, Age High High Multiple (Competitive, None Predominant) Multiple (Competitive, None Predominant)
Unbalanced, Gender and Age
Subvariable Population Movement Common Languages Criminal Activity Human Rights
   

Subvariable Settings

Settled, Stable Single Limited Women
Mixed Multiple (One Preferred) Moderate Human Trafficking
Migrant Multiple (None Preferred) High Child Warriors
IDPs Torture
Refugees Genocide
Slavery
Table 3-21. Social: demographic mix
Definition: Describes the gender and military age balance of the population.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Balanced A population consisting of equal proportions of gender and military age.
Unbalanced, Gender A population consisting of an unequal proportion by gender (male, female) in relation to the over­all group. The military age proportion of the population is not affected and remains the same as if it were in a balanced setting. If an unstable society is desired in constructing an OE for training, this subvariable should be combined with other negative settings from other Social subvariables (see subvariable links below).    

(continued)

Unbalanced, Age A population consisting of a greater proportion of the military age (male, female) in relation to the overall population. The gender proportion of the population is not affected and remains the same as if it were in a balanced setting.
Unbalanced, Gender and Age A population consisting of unequal proportions of gender (male, female) and military age in relation to the overall group.
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Social: Social Volatility; Education Level, Criminal Activity, Human Rights.
Table 3-22. Social: social volatility
Definition: Describes the amount of conflict between religious or ethnic groups present in a society and the amount of civil unrest present.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Low Low intergroup conflicts. Civil unrest is minimal. No significant refugee presence. High religious, ethnic, and political diversity. 1-2 preplanned or spontaneous riots or civil disorders based on religious or ethnic strife present within the scenario.
Moderate Moderate intergroup conflicts. Civil unrest is sporadic. Minimal refugee presence. Some lack of religious, ethnic, and political diversity. 3-4 preplanned or spontaneous riots or civil disorders based on religious or ethnic strife present within the scenario.
High High intergroup conflicts. Civil unrest is signifi­cant. Large refugee presence. Significant lack of religious, ethnic, and political diversity. 5-6 preplanned or spontaneous riots or civil disorders based on religious or ethnic strife present within the scenario.
Subvariable Links: Political: Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy; Social: Ethnic Diversity, Religious Diversity, Educa­ tion Level.
Table 3-23. Social: education level
Definition: Describes the education level of the population. (Helps determine the scripting requirements and may introduce specific scenario sub-themes into an OE.)
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Limited Limited population literacy and education. Primi­tive education infrastructure and high unem­ployment. Recommend 1/4 role-player population literate or educated for live training exercises. Limited education infrastructure and jobs (no more than 5%).
Moderate Moderate population literacy and education. Some education infrastructure and moderate unemployment. Recommend 1/2 role-player population literate or educated. Moderate amount of education infrastructure and jobs (no more than 10%).
High High population literacy and education. Signifi­cant education infrastructure and low unem­ployment. Recommend 3/4 role-player population literate or educated. High amount of education infra­structure and jobs (no more than 15%).
Subvariable Links: Political: Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy; Economic: Employment Status; Social: Social Vo­ latility.
Table 3-24. Social: ethnic diversity
Definition: Describes the number and specifies the interaction of various ethnic groups within a given population.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Single Group, Non-Competitive Self-explanatory.
Multiple Group, Competitive, Single Predominant Up to three distinct ethnic groups distributed throughout a given area with one group clearly identifiable as the dominant population. Role-player population with one group as the dominant population.
Multiple Group, Competitive, None Predominant Three or more distinct ethnic groups distributed throughout a given area with no group designat­ed as the dominant population. Role-player population with no group designated as the dominant population.
Subvariable Links: Social: Religious Diversity, Social Volatility, Population Movement, Common Languages.
Table 3-25. Social: religious diversity
Definition: Describes the number and specifies the interaction of various religious groups within a state or scenario popula­ tion.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Single Religion, Non- Competitive Self-explanatory.
Multiple Religions, Competitive, Single Predominant Up to three distinct religious groups distributed within a given area with one group as the domi­nant population. Role-player population with one group as the dominant population.
Multiple Religions, Competitive, None Predominant Up to three distinct religious groups distributed within a given area with no group designated as the dominant population. Role-player population with no group designated as the dominant population.
Subvariable Links: Social: Ethnic Diversity, Social Volatility, Population Movement, Common Languages.
Table 3-26. Social: population movement
Definition: Describes the initial prevalence of migrant populations, internally displaced persons, and refugees within a coun­ try, region, or area. (This designation does not preclude the possibility of migrant populations as a result of the training unit's action or inaction.)
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Settled, Stable Population is settled, organized, and does not move or displace except when confronted with occasions of extreme duress.
Mixed Part of  population is settled and part moves frequently. Population movement is based on the training unit's activities or pre-scripted as a scenario sub-event in response to training needs.
Migrant Population frequently moves as a part of the normal state of affairs. 1-2 special mission elements’ worth of role-players. Will cause the Political: Centers of Po­litical Power subvariable to most likely be Tribal.
Internally Displaced Persons A person who is involuntary moved inside the national boundaries of his or her country.
Refugees A person who, by reason of real or imagined danger, has left their home country or country of their nationality and is unwilling or unable  to return.
Subvariable Links: Economic: Employment Status; Economic Diversity; Social: Social Volatility, Common Languages.
Table 3-27. Social: common languages
Definition: The preferred language(s) of a specific country or region or lack thereof.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Single Preferred and Predominant Language Self-explanatory.
Multiple Languages with One the Preferred Language Country or region where several languages exist but one is recognized and used by the population as the preferred language. For CTC replication, requires relatively high re­ sources and support for an OE with multiple lan­ guages in terms of role-players and interpreters.
Multiple Languages with No Preferred or Predominant Language Country or region where there is no preferred or predominant language. Frequently found in failed nation-states or states where the na­tional language is not used except in specia­lized areas such as commerce. Same as above.
Subvariable Links: Social: Demographic Mix, Ethnic Diversity, Population Movement.
Table 3-28. Social: criminal activity
Definition: Defines the level of criminal activity present in a society.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Limited Limited criminal activity. For CTC replication, 1-2 activities present from criminal activity. Limited to up to 30% of the total urban land­scape.
Moderate Moderate criminal activity present. For CTC replication, 1-3 activities present from criminal activity. Limited to up to 50% of the total urban landscape. Presence of at least one criminal gang distributed throughout the scenario environment.
High High criminal activity present. For CTC replication, 3-4 activities present from criminal activity. Two or more rival criminal gangs or organiza­ tions present and active in the scenario (manifested by competition, gang or mob warfare). Limited to presence in 75% of the total urban landscape.
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Military: Non-State Paramilitary Forces; Economic: Illegal Economic Activity.
Table 3-29. Social: human rights
Definition: Human rights refer to the basic rights and freedoms to which all humans are entitled. Examples of rights and freedoms that have come to be commonly thought of as human rights include: civil and political rights, such as the right to life and liberty, freedom of expression, and equality before the law; and economic and social rights, including the right to participate in culture, the right to food, the right to work, and the right to education.

The most widely recognized international documentation of human rights is the 1948 UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), which has been ratified by the majority of the world’s nations. However, many nations still struggle or refuse to implement all of the provisions of this declaration. Understanding whether and to what extent each country or region is complying with internationally recognized human rights is critical to the success of military operations. Below are some of the more blatant areas of violation within human rights. These are areas the U.S. military has faced in the recent past that may be important to understand in a future AO.

Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Women Issues relating to the political, economic, civil, social, and educational rights of women. Examples of issues related to these areas are voting rights, employment discrimination, sexual discrimination, honor killings, forced and early marriages, reproductive rights, health care, and educational discrimination.
Human Trafficking Human trafficking is the commerce and trade in the movement or migration of people, legal and illegal, including legitimate labor activities as well as forced labor. The term is used in a more narrow sense by advocacy groups to mean the recruitment, transportation, harboring, or receipt of people for the purposes of slavery, prostitu­tion, forced labor (including bonded labor or debt bondage), and servitude. Human trafficking is the fastest growing criminal industry in the world, with the total annual reve­nue for trafficking in persons estimated to be between $5 billion and $9 billion. (Fact Sheet 1, Economic Roots of Trafficking in the UNECE Region, Geneva, 15 Dec 04).
Child Warriors Child warriors are the result of forced or com­pulsory recruitment of anyone under the age of 18 for use in armed conflict. This can include children taking direct part in hostilities or used in support roles such as porters, spies, messen­gers, or lookouts. In over 20 countries around the world, children are direct participants in war. Denied a child­hood and often subjected to horrific violence, an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 children are serv­ing as soldiers for both reInformation Variablebel groups and gov­ernment forces in current armed conflicts.
Torture Torture, according to the UN Convention Against Torture, is: “any act by which severe pain and suffering, whether physical or mental, is intentionally inflicted on a person for such purposes as obtaining from him, or a third per­son, information or a confession, punishing him for an act he or a third person has committed or is suspected of having committed, or intimidat­ing or coercing him or a third person, or for any reason based on discrimination of any kind, when such pain or suffering is inflicted by or at the instigation of or with the consent or acquies­cence of a public official or other person acting in an official capacity. It does not include pain or suffering arising only from, inherent in, or inci­dental to, lawful sanctions.” Torture is widely considered to be a violation of human rights, and is declared to be unaccepta­ble by Article 5 of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Signatories of the Third Ge­neva Convention and Fourth Geneva Conven­tion officially agree not to torture prisoners in armed conflicts. Torture is also prohibited Against Torture, which has been ratified by 145 states. However, Amnesty Inter­national estimates that at least 81 world governments currently practice torture, some open­ly.
Genocide The 1948 UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (CPPCG). Article 2, defines genocide as: "any of the fol­lowing acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group, as such: killing members of the group; causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; [and] forcibly transferring child­ren of the group to another group.” To commit genocide, the perpetrators need a strong, centralized authority and bureaucratic organization as well as pathological individuals and criminals. Also required is a campaign of vilification and dehumanization of the victims by the perpetrators, who are usually new states or new regimes attempting to impose conformity to a new ideology and its model of society. Examples of recent acts of genocide are Rwanda, Former Yugoslavia, and Sudan.
Slavery Slavery is a form of forced labor in which people are considered to be, or treated as, the property of others. Slaves are held against their will from the time of their capture, purchase, or birth, and are deprived of the right to leave, to refuse to work, or to receive compensation (such as wag­es). Evidence of slavery predates written records, and has existed to varying extents, forms and periods in almost all cultures and continents. In some societies, slavery existed as a legal insti­tution or socio-economic system, but today it is formally outlawed in nearly all countries. Never­theless, the practice continues in various forms around the world. Freedom from slavery is an internationally recognized human right. Article 4 of the UDHR states: “No one shall be held in slavery or servitude; slavery and the slave trade shall be prohibited in all their forms.”
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Military: Non-State Paramilitary Forces; Economic: Illegal Economic Activity.

Information Variable

The Information variable describes the nature, scope, characteristics, and effects of individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, disseminate, or act on information. Information involves the access, use, manipulation, distribution, and reliance on information technology systems, both civilian and military, by an entity (state or non-state). Understanding whatever communication infrastructure exists in an OE is important because it ultimately controls the flow of information to the population and military and/or paramilitary forces, as well as influencing local and international audiences. Communication availability can act as a leveling function with regard to mitigating military technical advantages to a surprising extent. Military units must understand and engage in the information environment in order to achieve their objectives. The specific information subvariables and their settings represent replicable conditions that may be present within an OE and are depicted in table 3-30. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-31 through 3-34.

Table 3-30. Information variable and subvariable settings
Variable Information
Subvariable Public Communications Media Information Warfare Intelligence Information Management
     

Subvariable Settings

Internet Electronic Warfare Open-Source Intelligence Rudimentary
Television Computer Warfare Human Intelligence Basic
Radio Information Attack Signals Intelligence Medium
Print Media Deception Imagery Intelligence Advanced
Telephone Physical Destruction
Postal and Courier Service Protection and Security Measures
Word of Mouth Perception Management
Table 3-31. Information: public communications media
Definition: Describes the type of information or media sources that may be available to the public in an OE.

(The individual media as sub-subvariables can have settings reflecting the level of availability: None = nonexistent; Limited = available in large cities only; Moderate = available in cities and some towns; Widespread = available down to town level.)

Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Internet Self-explanatory. Interruptible, 4-5 building intranet access per town, capable of replicating an Internet capable of hosting at least 6 dynamic pages or sites consist­ing of the following site types: 2 weblogs, 2 Internet chat rooms, and 2 news websites.
Television Self-explanatory. A single channel, cable broadcast capability with a connected studio pro­duction site (located in exercise area), associated personnel, and suffi­cient programming to broadcast 10 hours per day.
Radio Self-explanatory. An AM or FM radio broadcast station, with associated personnel, and the ability to broadcast programming for 10 hours per day for the duration of an exercise. Broadcast and studio facilities would ideally be located in the exercise area to enhance play.
Print Media Self-explanatory. Media personnel (role-players) and associated equipment required to create and locally produce a single-page newspaper or flyer. Minimum of one production element present per 2 towns
Telephone Self-explanatory. Landline and/or mobile telephone service.
Postal and Courier Service Self-explanatory. Postal or courier personnel (role-players) and associated transportation means
Word of Mouth Self-explanatory. Scripted instructions to role-players to report specific information, relay certain data, or to spontaneously report on specific activities.
Subvariable Links:  Economic: Banking and Finance; Social: Social Volatility, Ethnic Diversity, Criminal Activity, Common Languages; Information: Information Management; Infrastructure: Utility Level, Utilities Present, Transportation Architecture.
Table 3-32. Information: information warfare
Definition: Information warfare (INFOWAR) is the specifically planned and integrated actions taken to achieve an informa­tion advantage at critical points and times. (FM 7-100.1) INFOWAR consists of seven elements: electronic warfare (EW), computer warfare, information attack, deception, physical destruction, protection and security measures, and perception management. These elements do not exist in isolation from one another and are not mutually exclusive. (FM 7-100.1)

(INFOWAR elements as sub-subvariables can have settings on a scale of 1 to 5: 1 = Very Limited; 2 = Limited; 3 = Mod­erate; 4 = Good; 5 = Superior.)

Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Electronic Warfare Consists of countermeasures conducted to control or deny other actors’ use of the electro­magnetic spectrum, while ensuring one’s own use of it. EW capabilities allow an actor to ex­ploit, deceive, degrade, disrupt, damage, or destroy sensors, processors, and C2 nodes. (FM 7-100.1) At a minimum, the goal of EW is to control the use of the electromagnetic spectrum at critical locations and times or to attack a specific system. To accomplish these EW goals and objectives, actors can employ both lethal and nonlethal measures. Lethal EW activities include the physi­cal destruction of high-priority targets supporting another actor’s decision making process—such as reconnaissance sensors, command posts, and communications systems. They also in­clude activities such as lethal air defense sup­pression measures. If available, precision muni­tions can degrade or eliminate high-technology C2 assets and associated links. Nonlethal EW means range from signals reconnaissance and electronic jamming to the deployment of protec­tive countermeasures and deception jammers. Sophisticated camouflage, deception, decoy, or mockup systems can degrade the effects of enemy reconnaissance, intelligence, surveil­lance, and target acquisition (RISTA) systems. Also, an actor can employ low-cost GPS jam­mers to disrupt another actor’s precision muni­tions targeting, sensor-to-shooter links, and navigation. (FM 7-100.1)
Computer Warfare Consists of attacks that focus specifically on computer systems, networks, and/or nodes. This includes a wide variety of activities, ranging from unauthorized access (hacking) of information systems for intelligence-collection purposes, to the insertion of  malicious software  (viruses, worms, logic bombs, or Trojan horses) and deceptive information entry into computer systems. Such attacks concentrate on the denial of service and disruption or manipulation of the integrity of the information infrastructure. (FM 7-100.1) Actors may attempt to accomplish these activities through the use of agents or third-party individuals with direct access to another actor’s information systems. They can also continually access and attack systems at great distances via communications links such as the Internet or various wireless devices. (FM 7-100.1)
Information Attack An information attack (IA) focuses on the intentional disruption or distortion of information in a manner that supports a comprehensive INFOWAR campaign. Unlike computer warfare attacks that target the information systems, IAs target the information itself. (FM 7-100.1) An IA may target an information system for sabotage (electronically or physically) or manipulate and exploit information. This may involve altering data, stealing data, or forcing a system to perform a function for which it was not intended. (FM 7-100.1)
Deception Deception activities include measures designed to mislead adversaries by manipulation, distortion, or falsification of information. The aim of deception is to influence opponents’ situational understanding and lead them to act in a manner that is prejudicial to their own interests or favors the actor employing the deception. (FM 7-100.1) Deception measures are a part of every military operation, and are also used to achieve political and economic  goals. The international media may be a target for deceptive information at the operational level, being fed false stories and video that portrays tactical-level actions with the goal of influencing operational or even strategic decisions. (FM 7-100.1)

Forms of deception that support IW range from physical decoys and electronic devices, to operational activities, to casualty “photo ops” staged for unsuspecting media personnel. Successful deception activities depend on the identification and exploitation of enemy information systems and networks, as well as other “conduits” for introducing deceptive information. (FM 7-100.1)

Physical Destruction Physical destruction, as an element of INFOWAR, involves measures to destroy critical components of the enemy’s information infrastructure. (FM 7-100.1) The OPFOR integrates all types of conventional and precision weapon systems to conduct the destructive fires, to include fixed- and rotary-wing aviation, cannon artillery, multiple rocket launchers, and surface-to-surface missiles. It can also utilize other means of destruction, such as explosives delivered by special-purpose forces (SPF), insurgents, terrorists, or even co- opted civilians. Physical destruction activities can be integrated with jamming to maximize their effects. (FM 7-100.1)
Protection and Security Measures The purpose of protection and security measures in INFOWAR is to protect one’s own information infrastructure, maintain one’s own capabilities for effective C2, and deny protected information to other actors. (FM 7-100.1) Protection and security measures conducted as part of INFOWAR include—
  • Information collection, processing, and utilization.
  • Reconnaissance and counterreconnaissance.
  • Information and operations security.
  • Camouflage, concealment, cover, and deception.
  • Force protection.
  • Secure use of information-collection and –processing systems.

An actor’s capability against its main opponent can come from a high-tech asset or a low-tech approach. (FM 7-100.1)

Perception Management Perception management involves measures aimed at creating a perception of truth that furthers an actor’s objective. It integrates several widely differing activities that use a combination of true, false, misleading, or manipulated information. (FM 7-100.1) Enemy or foreign audiences, as well as the local population, may be targets of perception man­agement. Perception management can include misinformation, media manipulation, and psychological warfare. (FM 7-100.1)

Psychological warfare (PSYWAR) is the capa­bility and activities designed to influence se­lected friendly, neutral, and/or hostile target audiences’ attitudes and behaviors in support of the actor. PSYWAR can target either specific decision making systems or the entire informa­tion system of the target audience, while in­fluencing key communicators and decision mak­ers. Such attacks target an enemy’s perceived centers of gravity. For example, prolonging an operation and using all forms of media to show the devastation of conflict can sway public opi­nion against the effort. (FM 7-100.1) Many actors skillfully employ media and other neutral actors, such as NGOs, to influence further public and private perceptions. Actors can exploit the international media’s willingness to report information without independent and timely confirmation. Individuals such as agents of influence, sympathizers, and antiwar prote­sters are also employed advantageously to influence the enemy’s media, politicians, and citizenry. (FM 7-100.1)

Subvariable Links:  Military: Military Functions; Information: Information Management; Infrastructure: Utility Level, Utilities Present.
Table 3-33. Information: intelligence
Definition: The product resulting from the collection, processing, integration, evaluation, analysis, and interpretation of available information concerning foreign nations, hostile or potentially hostile forces or elements, or areas of actual or poten­ tial operations. The term is also applied to the activity which results in the product and to the organizations engaged in such activity. (JP 2-0)
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) Information of potential intelligence value that is available to the general public. (JP 2-0)

OSINT is derived from the systematic collection, processing, and analysis of publicly available, rele­vant information in response to intelligence requirements. (FM 2-0)

OSINT is produced from publicly available information that is collected, exploited, and disseminated in a timely manner to an appro­priate audience for the purpose of addressing a specific intelligence requirement. (National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2006)
Human        Intelligence (HUMINT) A category of intelligence derived from information collected and provided by human sources. (JP 2-0)

HUMINT is the collection or foreign information— by a trained HUMINT collector—from people and multimedia to identify elements, intentions, composition, strength, dispositions, tactics, equipment, personnel, and capabilities. It uses human sources as a tool and a variety of collection methods, both passively and actively, to collect information. (FM 2-0)

Special-purpose forces (SPF) care a major source   of   human intelligence (HUMINT).

(FM 7-100.1)

Signals   Intelligence (SIGINT) 1.  A  category  of  intelligence  comprising either individually or in combination all communications intelligence, electronic intelligence, and foreign instrumentation signals intelligence, however transmitted. 2. Intelligence derived from communi­cations, electronic, and foreign instrumentation signals. (JP 1-02)

SIGINT is intelligence produced by exploiting for­eign communication systems and noncommunica­tions emitters. (JP 2-0) The SIGINT discipline is comprised of communica­tions intelligence (COMINT), electronic intelligence (ELINT), and foreign instrumentation signals intel­ligence (FISINT). (FM 2-0)

In  OPFOR  terminology, signals reconnaissance is an integral part of information war­fare. The overall scope of signals reconnais­sance includes the interception, analysis, and exploitation of electromagnetic (radio and radar) emissions, coupled with measures to disrupt or destroy the enemy’s radio and ra­dar assets. (FM 7-100.1)
Imagery  Intelligence(IMINT) The technical, geographic, and intelligence information derived through the interpretation or analy­sis of imagery and collateral materials. (JP 2-03) IMINT is intelligence derived from the exploi­tation of imagery collected by visual photo­graphy, infrared, lasers, multi-spectral sen­sors, and radar. These sensors produce im­ages of objects optically, electronically, or digitally on film, electronic display devices, or other media. (FM 2-0)
Subvariable Links:   Military: Military Functions; Social: Education Level; Information: Information Warfare, Information Management.
Table 3-34. Information: information management
Definition: Information Management is the science of using procedures and information systems to collect, process, store, display, disseminate, and protect knowledge products, data, and information. (FM 3-0). It employs both staff management and automatic processes to focus a vast array of information and make relevant information available to the right person at the right time. Effective information management—synchronized with reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition (RISTA) operations—enables commanders to gain and maintain information superiority. The level of Information management is defined by management, systems, and security. The three are intertwined and are therefore addressed as a composite capability in this subvariable.

Information Systems: The equipment and facilities that collect, process, store, display and disseminate information. This includes computers—hardware and software—and communications, as well as policies and procedures for their use. (FM 3­

0) Information systems and information management appear similar because they are intertwined. The sophistication of the information systems largely determines the capability of military command and control (C2) and civil interconnectivity. Information Security: The protection of information and information systems against unauthorized access or modification of information, whether in storage, processing, or transit, and against denial of services to authorized users. (JP 3-13) Informa­tion security includes those measures necessary to detect, document, and counter such threats. Information security is com­ posed of computer security and communications security.

Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Rudimentary Individuals or small groups supported by state- sponsored institutions (military or civilian) and non-state international groups. Military uses computers, analog, Internet, cell phones, radios, satellite phones, etc. Limited-to-no military au­tomated information management systems. Commercial, business, and finance stand­ alone systems. Communications systems sepa­rate but basic. 0 to 24% encrypted (secure). Relevant information is all information of importance to commanders and staffs in the exercise of command and control. (FM 3-0)

Information superiority is the operational advan­tage derived from the ability to collect, process, and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of infor­mation while exploiting or denying an adver­sary’s ability to do the same (JP 3-13).

Basic Integrated digital information management sys­tems. Military: digitized: computerized reports, direct GPS and encryption  (selected),  direct sensor-to-shooter links, laser range-finders, Inter­ net, broadcast tactical warning systems. Com­mercial, business, communications and finance systems linked locally but not integrated. 25% to 50% encrypted (secure). Allows commanders to take advantage of oppor­tunities, while denying adversary commanders the information needed to make timely and ac­ curate decisions or leading them to make deci­sions favorable to friendly forces.
Medium Windows of information domination. Military: integrated battlefield management systems, integrated C2, navigation, fire control, RISTA, image, maps, video, encrypted to battalion level, with or without SATCOM, GPS to squad level. Some commercial, business, communications and finance systems integrated locally, others linked. Some linked internationally. 51% to 75% encrypted (secure).
Advanced Advanced (state-of-the-art) information systems. Maintains information superiority. Creates condi­tions that allow commanders to shape the OE and enhance the effects of all elements of com­ bat power. Military: U.S. Joint Tactical Informa­tion Distribution System (JTIDS) and/or Blue (& Red) Force Tracker or foreign equivalent. Tech­nological advancements in automated informa­tion systems and communications allow com­manders to see the battlefield as actions unfold, near real-time, and to rapidly pass information across their AOs. Commercial, business, communications, and finance systems inte­grated locally and internationally. 76% to 90% encrypted (secure).
Subvariable Links: Military: Military Functions; Social: Education Level; Information: Information Warfare; Infrastructure: Utility Level.

Infrastructure Variable

The Infrastructure variable is composed of the basic facilities, services, and installations needed for the functioning of a community or society. The degradation or destruction of infrastructure will impact the entire OE, especially the Political, Military, Economic, Social, and Information variables. This variable also reflects the infrastructure sophistication of an OE. The specific infrastructure subvariables and their settings represent replicable conditions that may be present within an OE and are depicted in table 3-35. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3- 36 through 3-41.

Table 3-35. Infrastructure variable and subvariable settings
Variable Infrastructure
Subvariable Construc­ tion Pattern Urban Zones Urbanized Building Density Utilities Present Utility Level Transportation Architecture
     

Subvariable Settings

Dense, Random City Core Low Power Non-Existent Primitive
Close Orderly Block Core Periphery Medium Water Degraded Moderate
Strip Area High-Rise Residential High Sewage Developed Complex
Shantytown Low-Rise Residential Services and Transportation
Commercial Area
Industrial Area
Military Area
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