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Difference between revisions of "Chapter 3: Operational Variables"

(→‎Political Variable)
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 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes forces or groups that are distinct from regular armed forces of any country, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission (JP 1-02 and FM 3-07).  These forces or groups may  also operate in a combination of two or more of the subvariable settings below.  (Not government forces.)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Settings'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Insurgent Forces'''
 +
|An ''insurgency'' is  an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. (JP 3-05)
 +
 +
''Insurgent forces'' are groups that conduct  irregu­ lar or unconventional warfare within the borders of their country in order to undermine or overthrow a constituted government or civil authority.
 +
|The distinction between terrorists and insur­ gents is often blurred because of the  tactics employed by each. Some terrorists groups have become insurgent organizations, while  insurgent organizations have used terror  tactics. An insur­  gent organization may use more than one form of tactics and, based on its strategy, its actions could cut across the  entire spectrum of war­ fare—employing terror,  guerrilla, and conven­ tional military tactics to achieve  its goals. Typi­ cally,  most insurgent groups  use the first  two.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Guerrilla Forces'''
 +
|A ''guerrilla force'' is  a group of irregular, predominantly indigenous personnel organized along military lines  to conduct military and pa­ ramilitary operations in enemy-held, hostile, or denied  territory. (JP 3-05)
 +
|Some guerrilla organizations may constitute a paramilitary arm of an insurgent movement, while others  may pursue guerrilla warfare inde­ pendently from or loosely affiliated with an in­ surgent organization. Compared to insurgent organizations as a whole,  guerrilla organizations have a more military-like structure. (FM 7-100.4)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Criminal'''
 +
|Criminal     organizations    are     non-ideological
 +
|Criminal  organizations  may  employ   criminal
 +
|-
 +
|'''Organizations'''
 +
|groups of people  organized for the  purpose of
 +
 +
acquiring money by illegal means.
 +
|actions, terror  tactics, and militarily unconven­
 +
 +
tional methods  to achieve their goals. When mutual interests exist, criminal organizations may combine efforts  with insurgent and/or guer­ rilla organizations controlling or operating in the same area. A congruence of interests can also result  in criminal organizations having a close relationship with an established government. (FM 7-100.4)
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes forces or groups that are distinct from regular armed forces of any country, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission (JP 1-02 and FM 3-07).  These forces or groups may  also operate in a combination of two or more of the subvariable settings below.  (Not government forces.)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Settings'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Insurgent Forces'''
 +
|An ''insurgency'' is  an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. (JP 3-05)
 +
 +
''Insurgent forces'' are groups that conduct  irregu­ lar or unconventional warfare within the borders of their country in order to undermine or overthrow a constituted government or civil authority.
 +
|The distinction between terrorists and insur­ gents is often blurred because of the  tactics employed by each. Some terrorists groups have become insurgent organizations, while  insurgent organizations have used terror  tactics. An insur­  gent organization may use more than one form of tactics and, based on its strategy, its actions could cut across the  entire spectrum of war­ fare—employing terror,  guerrilla, and conven­ tional military tactics to achieve  its goals. Typi­ cally,  most insurgent groups  use the first  two.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Guerrilla Forces'''
 +
|A ''guerrilla force'' is  a group of irregular, predominantly indigenous personnel organized along military lines  to conduct military and pa­ ramilitary operations in enemy-held, hostile, or denied  territory. (JP 3-05)
 +
|Some guerrilla organizations may constitute a paramilitary arm of an insurgent movement, while others  may pursue guerrilla warfare inde­ pendently from or loosely affiliated with an in­ surgent organization. Compared to insurgent organizations as a whole,  guerrilla organizations have a more military-like structure. (FM 7-100.4)
 +
|-
 +
|'''Criminal'''
 +
|Criminal     organizations    are     non-ideological
 +
|Criminal  organizations  may  employ   criminal
 +
|-
 +
|'''Organizations'''
 +
|groups of people  organized for the  purpose of
 +
 +
acquiring money by illegal means.
 +
|actions, terror  tactics, and militarily unconven­
 +
 +
tional methods  to achieve their goals. When mutual interests exist, criminal organizations may combine efforts  with insurgent and/or guer­ rilla organizations controlling or operating in the same area. A congruence of interests can also result  in criminal organizations having a close relationship with an established government. (FM 7-100.4)
 +
|}
 
As discussed in chapter 2, the operational variables provide key design considerations for the exercise planner. Together, these variables comprise all the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect any military operation or any training exercise. They provide a comprehensive view of an operational environment (OE), real or simulated, that realistically challenges the training unit, its leaders, and Soldiers in the execution of their missions and tasks. This chapter describes the variables, subvariables, and linkages that can be used to develop comprehensive OE conditions for training exercises.
 
As discussed in chapter 2, the operational variables provide key design considerations for the exercise planner. Together, these variables comprise all the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect any military operation or any training exercise. They provide a comprehensive view of an operational environment (OE), real or simulated, that realistically challenges the training unit, its leaders, and Soldiers in the execution of their missions and tasks. This chapter describes the variables, subvariables, and linkages that can be used to develop comprehensive OE conditions for training exercises.
  
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An OE is the complete set of conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the decisions of the unit commander and the deployment and employment of military forces, as well as other instruments of national power. It encompasses all the variables that affect where Soldiers will train or fight.
 
An OE is the complete set of conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the decisions of the unit commander and the deployment and employment of military forces, as well as other instruments of national power. It encompasses all the variables that affect where Soldiers will train or fight.
  
−
The OE represented in a training event must be appropriate for the training objectives. What consti- tutes a realistic and relevant OE for a particular training event depends on how much the unit knows about where it can expect to be deployed. On the one hand, the unit may know the specific area of operations (AO) where it will deploy or be able to anticipate such a specific deployment. In that case, the goal should be to create training conditions that replicate as closely as possible the actual conditions of the specific OE associated with that AO. On the other hand, the unit may need to train to accomplish its core capabilities in any of a number of possible OEs. In that case, it is appropriate to design an OE that represents a composite of the types of conditions that might exist in a number of actual OEs in which the unit might find itself involved in full spectrum operations.
+
The OE represented in a training event must be appropriate for the training objectives. What constitutes a realistic and relevant OE for a particular training event depends on how much the unit knows about where it can expect to be deployed. On the one hand, the unit may know the specific area of operations (AO) where it will deploy or be able to anticipate such a specific deployment. In that case, the goal should be to create training conditions that replicate as closely as possible the actual conditions of the specific OE associated with that AO. On the other hand, the unit may need to train to accomplish its core capabilities in any of a number of possible OEs. In that case, it is appropriate to design an OE that represents a composite of the types of conditions that might exist in a number of actual OEs in which the unit might find itself involved in full spectrum operations.
  
 
In either case, the design and structure of the OE for any training event consists of three main components: actual data, projected data, and intelligent compromise. All that differs is the proportion of each. The term for this combination of actual data, intelligent compromise, and projected information that creates the conditions for any training event is the '''Contemporary Operational Environment (COE). The COE is the collective set of conditions, derived from a composite of actual worldwide conditions, that pose realistic challenges for training, leader development, and capabilities development for Army forces and their joint, intergovernmental, interagency and multinational partners'''. The COE is a collective term for the relevant aspects of contemporary OEs that exist or could exist today or in the, near- and mid- term future (next 10 years). It is a composite of all the '''operational variables''' and '''actors''' that create the conditions, circumstances, and influence that can affect military operations—and therefore serve as the conditions necessary for training and leader development. Most importantly, it is not a totally artificial construct created for training; rather, it is a representative composite based on the characteristics of one or more actual OEs in this contemporary timeframe.
 
In either case, the design and structure of the OE for any training event consists of three main components: actual data, projected data, and intelligent compromise. All that differs is the proportion of each. The term for this combination of actual data, intelligent compromise, and projected information that creates the conditions for any training event is the '''Contemporary Operational Environment (COE). The COE is the collective set of conditions, derived from a composite of actual worldwide conditions, that pose realistic challenges for training, leader development, and capabilities development for Army forces and their joint, intergovernmental, interagency and multinational partners'''. The COE is a collective term for the relevant aspects of contemporary OEs that exist or could exist today or in the, near- and mid- term future (next 10 years). It is a composite of all the '''operational variables''' and '''actors''' that create the conditions, circumstances, and influence that can affect military operations—and therefore serve as the conditions necessary for training and leader development. Most importantly, it is not a totally artificial construct created for training; rather, it is a representative composite based on the characteristics of one or more actual OEs in this contemporary timeframe.
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|-
 
|-
 
| rowspan="5" |     
 
| rowspan="5" |     
−
 
 
Subvariable Settings
 
Subvariable Settings
 
|Friendly
 
|Friendly
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{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|+
 
|+
 +
Table 3-4. Political: type of government
 
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Determines  the type of government structure and associated behaviors encountered.
 
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Determines  the type of government structure and associated behaviors encountered.
 
|-
 
|-
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{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|+
 
|+
 +
Table 3-5. Political: government effectiveness and legitimacy
 
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' ''Effectiveness'' refers to the capability of the government to work with society  to assure the provision of order and public goods and services. ''Legitimacy'' refers to the perception by important segments of society that  the government is exer­ cising state  power in ways that are reasonably fair  and in the interests of the nation  as a whole.
 
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' ''Effectiveness'' refers to the capability of the government to work with society  to assure the provision of order and public goods and services. ''Legitimacy'' refers to the perception by important segments of society that  the government is exer­ cising state  power in ways that are reasonably fair  and in the interests of the nation  as a whole.
 
|-
 
|-
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{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|+
 
|+
 +
Table 3-6. Political: influential political groups
 
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes the number and specifies the interaction and influence of various political groups within  the country, region, province, district, or town.  Helps define the level of government cohesion and strife within the government.
 
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes the number and specifies the interaction and influence of various political groups within  the country, region, province, district, or town.  Helps define the level of government cohesion and strife within the government.
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
 
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Social: Social Volatility, Education Level; Economic: Economic Diversity, Employment Status.
 
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Social: Social Volatility, Education Level; Economic: Economic Diversity, Employment Status.
 +
|}
 +
 +
=== Military Variable ===
 +
The Military variable explores the military and/or paramilitary capabilities of all relevant actors (enemy, friendly, and neutral) in a given OE. This includes nonmilitary armed and unarmed combatants. The variable focuses on giving the exercise planner the ability to design appropriate OPFOR units for full spectrum operations. The specific military subvariables and their settings are depicted in table 3-7. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-8 through 3-13.
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-7. Military variable and subvariable settings
 +
|'''Variable'''
 +
| colspan="6" |'''Military'''
 +
|-
 +
|Subvariable
 +
|Military Forces
 +
|Government Military Forces
 +
|Non-State Paramilitary Forces
 +
|Unarmed Comba­ tants
 +
|Nonmilitary Armed Combatants
 +
|Military Functions
 +
|-
 +
| rowspan="7" |           
 +
 +
Subvariable Settings
 +
|Predominantly Tank and Mechanized Infantry
 +
|Operating Independently
 +
|Insurgent Forces
 +
|Information Warfare Personnel
 +
|Predominantly Neutral
 +
|C2
 +
|-
 +
|Predominantly Infantry
 +
|Supplementing Regular Military
 +
|Guerrilla Forces
 +
|Media (Affiliated)
 +
|Predominantly Friendly
 +
|Maneuver
 +
|-
 +
|None
 +
|Operating as Combat Forces
 +
|Criminal Organizations
 +
|Medical (Affiliated)
 +
|Predominantly Hostile and Supporting Enemy
 +
|Information Warfare
 +
|-
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|Private Security Organizations
 +
|Active Sup­ porters
 +
|Undetermined
 +
|RISTA
 +
|-
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|Coerced or Unwitting
 +
|
 +
|Fire Support
 +
|-
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|Financiers
 +
|
 +
|Protection
 +
|-
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|See complete settings at table 3-11.
 +
|
 +
|Logistics
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-8. Military: military forces
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Specifies the types and sizes of military forces  present within  an OE.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Settings'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Predominantly Tank and Mechanized Infantry'''
 +
|Regular military forces consisting predominantly (at least 40%) of tank and mechanized infantry forces with some  infantry (non-mechanized).
 +
| rowspan="2" |For specific tier level  weapon systems, refer  to ''Worldwide  Equipment Guide''  (WEG) available online at <nowiki>https://www.us.army.mil/suite/files/14751393</nowiki>.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Predominantly Infantry'''
 +
|Regular military forces consisting predominantly (more than 60%) of infantry forces  (non­ mechanized) with some  tank and mechanized infantry  forces.
 +
|-
 +
|'''None'''
 +
|No regular military forces present.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Social: Education Level;  Economic: Employment Status; Terrain: Landforms.
 +
|}
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|+Table 3-9. Military: government paramilitary forces
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Definition:''' Describes government forces that are distinct from regular armed forces, but resembling them in organization, training,  or mission.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Subvariable Settings'''
 +
|'''Setting Definition'''
 +
|'''Considerations and Additional Notes'''
 +
|-
 +
|'''Operating Independently'''
 +
|Not subordinate to or affiliated with regular  mili­ tary forces.
 +
|May include  organizations such as police, bor­ der guards,  customs agents, and other internal security forces.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Supplementing Regular Military'''
 +
|Affiliated with or subordinate to regular military forces but  performing primarily non-combat roles.
 +
|Same as above with the exception that  these forces  are either part of the military force or can be mobilized to support the military force.
 +
|-
 +
|'''Operating as Combat Forces'''
 +
|Affiliated with or subordinate to regular military forces and performing combat missions. (Units are equipped with light weapons and sometimes heavy weapons and armored vehicles.)
 +
|Same as above with the exception that  these forces are trained and equipped for combat missions.  Depending on the OE, they  may be equipped  with light or heavy  weapon systems.
 +
|-
 +
| colspan="3" |'''Subvariable Links:''' Military: Non-State Paramilitary Forces; Economic: Employment Status.
 
|}
 
|}

Revision as of 17:30, 20 April 2017

Definition: Describes forces or groups that are distinct from regular armed forces of any country, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission (JP 1-02 and FM 3-07). These forces or groups may also operate in a combination of two or more of the subvariable settings below. (Not government forces.)
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Insurgent Forces An insurgency is an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. (JP 3-05)

Insurgent forces are groups that conduct irregu­ lar or unconventional warfare within the borders of their country in order to undermine or overthrow a constituted government or civil authority.

The distinction between terrorists and insur­ gents is often blurred because of the tactics employed by each. Some terrorists groups have become insurgent organizations, while insurgent organizations have used terror tactics. An insur­ gent organization may use more than one form of tactics and, based on its strategy, its actions could cut across the entire spectrum of war­ fare—employing terror, guerrilla, and conven­ tional military tactics to achieve its goals. Typi­ cally, most insurgent groups use the first two.
Guerrilla Forces A guerrilla force is a group of irregular, predominantly indigenous personnel organized along military lines to conduct military and pa­ ramilitary operations in enemy-held, hostile, or denied territory. (JP 3-05) Some guerrilla organizations may constitute a paramilitary arm of an insurgent movement, while others may pursue guerrilla warfare inde­ pendently from or loosely affiliated with an in­ surgent organization. Compared to insurgent organizations as a whole, guerrilla organizations have a more military-like structure. (FM 7-100.4)
Criminal Criminal    organizations    are    non-ideological Criminal  organizations  may  employ  criminal
Organizations groups of people organized for the purpose of

acquiring money by illegal means.

actions, terror tactics, and militarily unconven­

tional methods to achieve their goals. When mutual interests exist, criminal organizations may combine efforts with insurgent and/or guer­ rilla organizations controlling or operating in the same area. A congruence of interests can also result in criminal organizations having a close relationship with an established government. (FM 7-100.4)

Definition: Describes forces or groups that are distinct from regular armed forces of any country, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission (JP 1-02 and FM 3-07). These forces or groups may also operate in a combination of two or more of the subvariable settings below. (Not government forces.)
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Insurgent Forces An insurgency is an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. (JP 3-05)

Insurgent forces are groups that conduct irregu­ lar or unconventional warfare within the borders of their country in order to undermine or overthrow a constituted government or civil authority.

The distinction between terrorists and insur­ gents is often blurred because of the tactics employed by each. Some terrorists groups have become insurgent organizations, while insurgent organizations have used terror tactics. An insur­ gent organization may use more than one form of tactics and, based on its strategy, its actions could cut across the entire spectrum of war­ fare—employing terror, guerrilla, and conven­ tional military tactics to achieve its goals. Typi­ cally, most insurgent groups use the first two.
Guerrilla Forces A guerrilla force is a group of irregular, predominantly indigenous personnel organized along military lines to conduct military and pa­ ramilitary operations in enemy-held, hostile, or denied territory. (JP 3-05) Some guerrilla organizations may constitute a paramilitary arm of an insurgent movement, while others may pursue guerrilla warfare inde­ pendently from or loosely affiliated with an in­ surgent organization. Compared to insurgent organizations as a whole, guerrilla organizations have a more military-like structure. (FM 7-100.4)
Criminal Criminal    organizations    are    non-ideological Criminal  organizations  may  employ  criminal
Organizations groups of people organized for the purpose of

acquiring money by illegal means.

actions, terror tactics, and militarily unconven­

tional methods to achieve their goals. When mutual interests exist, criminal organizations may combine efforts with insurgent and/or guer­ rilla organizations controlling or operating in the same area. A congruence of interests can also result in criminal organizations having a close relationship with an established government. (FM 7-100.4)

As discussed in chapter 2, the operational variables provide key design considerations for the exercise planner. Together, these variables comprise all the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect any military operation or any training exercise. They provide a comprehensive view of an operational environment (OE), real or simulated, that realistically challenges the training unit, its leaders, and Soldiers in the execution of their missions and tasks. This chapter describes the variables, subvariables, and linkages that can be used to develop comprehensive OE conditions for training exercises.

Operational Environment

An OE is the complete set of conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the decisions of the unit commander and the deployment and employment of military forces, as well as other instruments of national power. It encompasses all the variables that affect where Soldiers will train or fight.

The OE represented in a training event must be appropriate for the training objectives. What constitutes a realistic and relevant OE for a particular training event depends on how much the unit knows about where it can expect to be deployed. On the one hand, the unit may know the specific area of operations (AO) where it will deploy or be able to anticipate such a specific deployment. In that case, the goal should be to create training conditions that replicate as closely as possible the actual conditions of the specific OE associated with that AO. On the other hand, the unit may need to train to accomplish its core capabilities in any of a number of possible OEs. In that case, it is appropriate to design an OE that represents a composite of the types of conditions that might exist in a number of actual OEs in which the unit might find itself involved in full spectrum operations.

In either case, the design and structure of the OE for any training event consists of three main components: actual data, projected data, and intelligent compromise. All that differs is the proportion of each. The term for this combination of actual data, intelligent compromise, and projected information that creates the conditions for any training event is the Contemporary Operational Environment (COE). The COE is the collective set of conditions, derived from a composite of actual worldwide conditions, that pose realistic challenges for training, leader development, and capabilities development for Army forces and their joint, intergovernmental, interagency and multinational partners. The COE is a collective term for the relevant aspects of contemporary OEs that exist or could exist today or in the, near- and mid- term future (next 10 years). It is a composite of all the operational variables and actors that create the conditions, circumstances, and influence that can affect military operations—and therefore serve as the conditions necessary for training and leader development. Most importantly, it is not a totally artificial construct created for training; rather, it is a representative composite based on the characteristics of one or more actual OEs in this contemporary timeframe.

Variables, Subvariables, AND Settings

The foundation of the exercise planner’s development of the appropriate OE for a training exercise is the eight operational variables that reside in all OEs and have the greatest impact on military forces. The strength of these variables is that they are flexible and scalable, capable of replicating any OE that U.S. forces might encounter along the full spectrum of conflict. These variables are Political, Military, Econom- ic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time (PMESII-PT). The variables relate to specific situations as well as threat capabilities. They are relevant to every echelon of command and every military mission. While individual variables do not dominate every environment, they are all present and require careful consideration. Ignoring one or more of these variables can negatively impact military missions and the realism of training conditions in an exercise.

The taxonomy of categorizing the components of any OE begins with the eight PMESII-PT. The next level down from the variables is the associated subvariables, which show either a menu or a range of choices called subvariable settings. In a few cases, a subvariable may break down into another level of specificity, called sub-subvariables, which have their own choices of settings. Each variable, associated subvariables and sub-subvariables, and their settings have specific definitions to assist the planner in building the desired OE.

Note. The listed subvariables and associated settings are not necessarily all inclusive. As events, technology, and time change, existing subvariables may need to be modified or new ones added. Even in conducting an operational environment assessment (OEA) for an actual OE, additional subvariables may be necessary. The intent in this TC is to provide a basic guideline of areas that are important and may need to be considered in designing a training exercise.

The remaining portion of this chapter will provide a detailed breakdown of each operational variable and their associated components in the order of the memory aid PMESII-PT. The entry for each variable begins with the definition of that variable. Then, for each variable, there is an initial table providing an overview of the associated subvariables and subvariable settings. This is followed by individual tables for each subvariable, providing the subvariable definition and definitions of possible subvariable settings. The subvariable tables also include “considerations and additional notes” usually pertaining to individual set- tings. Finally, the subvariable tables list other variables and subvariables whose settings would most likely be linked to the subvariable described in the table. However, these are not the only possible links that may exist.

Exercise planners should use these tables as a tool to select the subvariable or sub-subvariable settings that create the appropriate conditions for their specific exercise. These specific conditions, along with scenarios and road to war, are based upon approved training objectives, the training unit’s METL, and de- sired exercise-training outcomes. When training for an actual OE in a specific geographical area, the exercise planner can use a TRISA-produced OEA that indicates the settings required to replicate that particular OE (see chapter 2).

The impacts of the PMESII-PT variables on exercise design are significant. As discussed in chapter 2, the PMESII-PT variables and their subvariable and sub-subvariable settings provide a comprehensive framework to determine the training conditions within an OE. These conditions can affect the training unit and OPFOR positively and negatively across the full spectrum of operations as well as at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Using these variables assists the commander in training his unit in a realistic and challenging environment.

Political Variable

The Political variable describes the distribution of responsibility and power at all levels of governance—formally constituted authorities, as well as informal political powers. The political variable includes influential political groups and the collective attitude of the population towards the U.S. The specific Political subvariables and their settings are depicted in table 3-1. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-2 through 3-6.

Table 3-1. Political variable and subvariable settings
Variable Political
Subvariable Attitude toward the United States Centers of Political Power Type of Government Government Effectiveness and Legitimacy Influential Political Groups
     

Subvariable Settings

Friendly Tribal Dictatorship/ Authoritarian Effective: Stable Pro- Government
Neutral/ Ambivalent Town/District Theocracy Vulnerable: Recovering Opposition
Hostile Provincial Representative Government Vulnerable: Failing Coalition
National/ Regional Anarchy Crisis: Failing
Crisis: Failed
Table 3-2. Political: attitude toward the United States
Definition: Describes the attitude of the government toward the United States and specifically toward the presence and actions of U.S. and/or coalition forces. (Once established, this subvariable manifests itself in the scenario in the form of role player instructions or combat instructions to the OPFOR.)
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Friendly Describes an overall favorable, positive recep­ tion of the U.S. and/or coalition forces activities, presence, and initiatives. Role-player sub-instructions limited to 20% of subversive activities against the training unit's intentions. Takes the form of infiltration, over­ looking of criminal activities, active support of OPFOR. Also necessitates 20% of role-player support in the form of tips. Limits infiltration and scripted sabotage against the training unit’s actions. High level of tips (4 to 5 per day) and populace cooperation against OPFOR activities.
Neutral/Ambivalent Describes an undecided reception of the U.S. and/or coalition forces’ activities, presence, and initiatives. Role-player sub-instructions limited to 30% of the scenario population engaged in some form of subversive activities against the training unit's intentions. Takes the form of infiltration, over­ looking of criminal activities, and active support of OPFOR. Also necessitates 15% of role-player support in the form of tips. Increased infiltration and scripted sabotage against the training unit's actions. Moderate level of tips, (2 to 3 per day) and populace cooperation against OPFOR ac­ tivities.
Hostile Describes an unfavorable, negative reaction to the U.S. and/or coalition forces’ activities, pres­ ence, and initiatives. Role-player sub-instructions limited to 40% of the scenario population engaged in some form of subversive activities against the training unit's intentions. Takes the form of infiltration, over­ looking of criminal activities, and active support of OPFOR. Heavy infiltration and scripted sabo­ tage against the training unit's actions. Low level of tips (1 to 2 per day) and populace coopera­ tion against OPFOR activities.
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Social: Education Level; Economic: Employment Status.
Table 3-3. Political: centers of political power
Definition: Determines the types of bureaucratic divisions and/or centers of power within a government. Also includes the level of governmental span of control from tribal to regional/national level. An example would be tribal and town/district, with a primary focus on town/district matters.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Tribal Tribal focus, limited government or government of limited influence. Characterized by tribal eld­ ers, religious figureheads. Requires tribal elders, some town element man­ ning, and portions of the other role-playing re­ quirements element (such as NGOs, and host or allied nation military presence).
Town/District Town and some district focus in the government day-to-day operations. Requires district and town elements.
Provincial Provincial and minimal cross-border focus by the local and provincial government. Some regional (international) elements and story themes present in the scenario. Govern­ ment role-players adopt a national focus at the expense of local and tribal needs. Depending upon the government type and status, up to one full role-player provincial government, district, town, and other group will be required to fully replicate the level of government specified.
National/Regional International and cross-border focus based on the existence of multiple regions or national borders in the scenario OE. Also  requires  provincial,  district,  town,  other elements (manned at some level of capacity).
Subvariable Links: Political: Type of Government; Social: Education level, Ethnic Diversity: Infrastructure: Transportation.
Table 3-4. Political: type of government
Definition: Determines the type of government structure and associated behaviors encountered.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Dictatorship/Authoritarian A mode of government characterized by the existence of a single ruler or group who arro­ gate to themselves and monopolize power in the state, exercising it without restraint. For live training requires robust domestic security apparatus, bureaucratic institutions, and bloated role-player government structure (1.5 normal manning).
Theocracy A government ruled by or subject to religious authority. A system of government in which God or a deity is held to be the civil ruler. Can only occur in the first two categories of social religious diversity.
Representative A representative form of government—either Requires   specific,   prominent   influencers,
Government democratic,   republic,   or   parliamentary   in

form—with elected representatives and ex­ ecutives. All politics are governed by will of people and government has limited, defined powers over the population.

council members be present in the scenario

(in addition to the normal role-player govern­ ment positions).

Anarchy Absence of any form of political authority. Political disorder and confusion. Absence of any cohesive principle, such as a common standard or purpose. Tribal and religious role-players present in scenario. Small percentage of disenfran­ chised or former government officials with little influence.
Subvariable Links: Economic: Illegal Economic Activity, Social: Education Level, Religious Diversity, Criminal Activity.
Table 3-5. Political: government effectiveness and legitimacy
Definition: Effectiveness refers to the capability of the government to work with society to assure the provision of order and public goods and services. Legitimacy refers to the perception by important segments of society that the government is exer­ cising state power in ways that are reasonably fair and in the interests of the nation as a whole.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Effective: Stable The government is able and willing to provide adequate security and essential services to significant portions of its country’s population. It provides military and police services that secure borders and limit crime, while being reasonable, equitable, and without major violation of human rights. It provides basic services that generally meet demand. Political institutions, processes, norms, and leaders are acceptable to the citizenry and ensure adequate response to citi­ zen needs. For CTC replication, full complement of all spe­ cified role-player government positions required in the provincial, district and town elements. Government manning determined by the type of government selected. Defined as 60-75% of all government services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infrastructures present and functioning. Limited civil unrest. Limited gover­ nance issues and themes (no more than three). 1-2 instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Vulnerable: The government is recovering from crisis and The government is only partially manned and
Recovering still either unable or unwilling to provide ade­

quate security and essential services to all of the population. The legitimacy of the central government may still be in question. Limited civil unrest.

capable of administering its area. For CTC rep­

lication, requires 3/4 complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 40-60% of all government services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infra­ structures present and functioning. Moderate governance issues and themes (4-6, 2 of which are interrelated). Multiple (3-4) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.

Vulnerable: Failing The government is becoming either unable or unwilling to provide adequate security and es­ sential services to significant portions of the population. The legitimacy of the central gov­ ernment is falling into question. Increasing civil unrest. The government is only partially manned and capable of administering its area. For CTC rep­ lication, requires 3/4 complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 40-60% of all government services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infra­ structures present and functioning. Moderate governance issues and themes (4-6, 2 of which are interrelated). Multiple (3-4) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Crisis: Failing The central government does not exert effective control over all the country’s territory. It is be­ coming unable or unwilling to provide security and essential services for significant portions of the population. The central government may be weak, nonexistent, or simply unable or unwilling to provide security or basic services. There is great risk of violent internal conflict. The government is partially manned and mini­ mally capable of administering its area. For CTC replication requires 1/2 or fewer complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 20-40% of all gov­ ernment services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infrastructures present and func­ tioning. High level  of  governance issues and themes (8-10, 4 of which are interrelated). Mul­ tiple (5-6) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Crisis: Failed The central government does not exert effective control over the country’s territory. It is unable to provide security and essential services for sig­ nificant portions of the population. The central government is weak, nonexistent, or simply unable to provide security or basic services. Violent internal conflict is a reality. The government is partially manned and largely incapable of administering its area. For CTC replication requires 1/4 or fewer complement of all specified role-player government positions within the OE. Defined as 20-40% of all gov­ ernment services provided throughout the OE, 60-75% of all infrastructures present and func­ tioning. High level  of  governance issues and themes (8-10, 4 of which are interrelated). Mul­ tiple (5-6) instances of civil unrest or riots as a result of those issues and themes.
Subvariable Links: Political: Governance, Stability; Infrastructure: Utilities Present, Services Level.
Table 3-6. Political: influential political groups
Definition: Describes the number and specifies the interaction and influence of various political groups within the country, region, province, district, or town. Helps define the level of government cohesion and strife within the government.
Subvariable Setting Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Pro-Government Major political parties generally support the government in power. Minimal dissent and is­ sues of contention. Presented and manifested in OE through script­ ing and role-player sub-instructions. If desired, minor issues may result in slight disruption of essential government functions if unaddressed or not resolved by the training unit.
Coalitions Different political groups with competing inter­ ests and vary in their support of the government. Establishes conditions for moderate disruption of essential government functions and social volatility. Requires the establishment of up to three differ­ ent political groups with at least two competing interests to be written into the scenario key events, back-stories, and role-player sub- instructions. Conflicts should be executed or presented during the training exercise, using power bases and role-player influencers. Issues should result in the moderate disruption of es­ sential government functions if unaddressed or not resolved by the training unit.
Opposition Different political groups are opposed to the government with competing interests. Estab­ lishes conditions for major disruption of essen­ tial government functions and social volaMilitary VariabletiltitaryVariables the establishment of up to three differ­ ent political groups with at least two competing interests to be written into the scenario key events, back-stories, and role-player sub- instructions. Conflicts should be executed or presented during the training exercise, using power bases and role-player influencers. Issues should result in the major disruption of essential government functions if unaddressed or not resolved by the training unit.
Subvariable Links: Social: Social Volatility, Education Level; Economic: Economic Diversity, Employment Status.

Military Variable

The Military variable explores the military and/or paramilitary capabilities of all relevant actors (enemy, friendly, and neutral) in a given OE. This includes nonmilitary armed and unarmed combatants. The variable focuses on giving the exercise planner the ability to design appropriate OPFOR units for full spectrum operations. The specific military subvariables and their settings are depicted in table 3-7. Their associated definitions, considerations, additional notes, and external links are listed separately in tables 3-8 through 3-13.

Table 3-7. Military variable and subvariable settings
Variable Military
Subvariable Military Forces Government Military Forces Non-State Paramilitary Forces Unarmed Comba­ tants Nonmilitary Armed Combatants Military Functions
           

Subvariable Settings

Predominantly Tank and Mechanized Infantry Operating Independently Insurgent Forces Information Warfare Personnel Predominantly Neutral C2
Predominantly Infantry Supplementing Regular Military Guerrilla Forces Media (Affiliated) Predominantly Friendly Maneuver
None Operating as Combat Forces Criminal Organizations Medical (Affiliated) Predominantly Hostile and Supporting Enemy Information Warfare
Private Security Organizations Active Sup­ porters Undetermined RISTA
Coerced or Unwitting Fire Support
Financiers Protection
See complete settings at table 3-11. Logistics
Table 3-8. Military: military forces
Definition: Specifies the types and sizes of military forces present within an OE.
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Predominantly Tank and Mechanized Infantry Regular military forces consisting predominantly (at least 40%) of tank and mechanized infantry forces with some infantry (non-mechanized). For specific tier level weapon systems, refer to Worldwide Equipment Guide (WEG) available online at https://www.us.army.mil/suite/files/14751393.
Predominantly Infantry Regular military forces consisting predominantly (more than 60%) of infantry forces (non­ mechanized) with some tank and mechanized infantry forces.
None No regular military forces present.
Subvariable Links: Social: Education Level; Economic: Employment Status; Terrain: Landforms.
Table 3-9. Military: government paramilitary forces
Definition: Describes government forces that are distinct from regular armed forces, but resembling them in organization, training, or mission.
Subvariable Settings Setting Definition Considerations and Additional Notes
Operating Independently Not subordinate to or affiliated with regular mili­ tary forces. May include organizations such as police, bor­ der guards, customs agents, and other internal security forces.
Supplementing Regular Military Affiliated with or subordinate to regular military forces but performing primarily non-combat roles. Same as above with the exception that these forces are either part of the military force or can be mobilized to support the military force.
Operating as Combat Forces Affiliated with or subordinate to regular military forces and performing combat missions. (Units are equipped with light weapons and sometimes heavy weapons and armored vehicles.) Same as above with the exception that these forces are trained and equipped for combat missions. Depending on the OE, they may be equipped with light or heavy weapon systems.
Subvariable Links: Military: Non-State Paramilitary Forces; Economic: Employment Status.
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