Caucasus

DATE Caucasus Overview map

Over 200,000 square miles comprise the Caucasus, a mountainous region located between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. The Caucasus includes Atropia, Limaria, and Gorgas, as well as parts of Ariana and Donovia. The Caucasus Mountains, consisting of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus ranges, traditionally form the separation between Europe and Asia. The Caucasus region contains two major parts—the North Caucasus and the South Caucasus—that are divided by the Greater Caucasus Mountains. The North Caucasus region is contained entirely within Donovia, while the South Caucasus contains Gorgas, Limaria, Atropia, and part of Ariana. The Caspian Sea holds large oil and natural gas reserves, which contribute to the region’s geostrategic importance.

The region has a long history of warfare; ethnic and religious factionalism; and general political, military, and civilian unrest. In addition to these internal regional divisions, outside actors to include the US, the European Union (EU), and Middle East nations have increasing strategic interests in the region. The Caucasus thus represents a flashpoint where highly localized conflict can spill over into widespread unrest or general war.

(See also Using the DATE and TC 7-101 Exercise Design).

Ariana

The Islamic Republic of Ariana, the area’s second-largest and second-strongest nation militarily, possesses massive oil and gas reserves in its southwest region along the Persian Gulf. This area and the Strait of Hormuz comprise key terrain assets for the country. Ariana’s government is aggressive, capable, revolutionary, and intent on spreading its vision of Islamic governance and the establishment of a new Arianian hegemony throughout the region. Ariana mobilizes target populations through politicization of Islam to accomplish its long-term goals.

Atropia

The Republic of Atropia is vulnerable because of its natural resources and as a result of conflicts over its province of Lower Janga. Atropia possesses significant oil and gas reserves in both the northeast and the Caspian Sea. Further, the Trans-Caucasus petroleum (TC-P) pipeline, one of the most critical infrastructure components in the region, originates near its capital city. These rich natural resources generate potential threats from external forces.

Limaria currently occupies Atropia’s Lower Janga province, an area fought over by Atropia and Limaria for 20 years. At present, over 95% of the Lower Jangan population belongs to the Limarian ethnic group. Refugees displaced from the Lower Janga dispute amount to over one million people. An estimated 400,000 Atropian Limarians and 30,000 Lower Janga Limarians fled to Limaria or Donovia to avoid the conflict. An estimated 800,000 Atropians from Limaria or Lower Janga sought refuge in Atropia. Various other ethnic groups in Lower Janga also evacuated to refugee camps in Atropia or Ariana. All efforts to settle the dispute have failed. Ariana contains a large internal Atropian ethnic minority and disagrees with Atropia over the delineation of Caspian Sea oil and gas fields. Atropia, a majority Shia nation, resists Arianian-sponsored attempts to politicize Islam within Atropia.

Donovia

The United Republics of Donovia is a resurgent nation that, prior to two decades ago, was the region’s dominant political, economic, military, and social player. Internal turmoil due to an embezzlement scandal—known as the Four Traitors incident—lessened Donovia’s influence during the period from 11–20 years ago. Now, riding a wave of higher oil prices, a reinvigorated Donovia seeks to rebuild its prior levels of regional and international influence through a combination of assertive diplomacy and military power. However, the desire for independence among the other states in the region creates friction between them. Ultimately, Donovia’s neighbors wish to accommodate Donovian power without jeopardizing their core equities.

Gorgas

The Democratic Republic of Gorgas, like Atropia, is a small yet fiercely independent state in a fragile and dangerous area, but without Atropia’s hydrocarbon assets. The country’s primary strength is geographical—its Black Sea ports and land borders make it a logical pipeline route and regional outlet to the outside world. Gorgas remains among the smallest and least economically developed nations in the region. It currently exists in a state of “frozen conflict” with Donovia over Donovian attempts to block Gorgas from NATO and EU membership, as well as Donovian support for Zabzimek and South Ostremek—two breakaway provinces formerly part of Gorgas.

The breakaway province of Zabzimek is located in northwest Gorgas and borders Donovia. Currently, a ceasefire and line of separation exist between Gorgas and Zabzimek, but the Zabzimek militia poses a threat to the port of Poti and lines of communication from the Black Sea to the Gorgan capital city of Tbilisi. Zabzimek achieved de facto independence after the conflict with Gorgas 19 years ago, but only Donovia and Nicaragua recognize the country internationally. Strong criminal elements operate in Zabzimek.

South Ostremek, in north-central Gorgas, also wants independence from Gorgas. Like Zabzimek, South Ostremek achieved de facto independence after the first Donovia-Gorgas War 19 years ago, but only Donovia and Nicaragua recognize the new country internationally. South Ostremek wants to reunite with North Ostremek, a Donovian republic. Currently, a ceasefire remains in effect between Gorgas and South Ostremek, primarily monitored by Donovian peacekeepers.

Limaria

The Democratic Republic of Limaria, a small and poor country, borders Atropia, Ariana, and Gorgas, and also occupies Lower Janga. Limaria currently enjoys a strong economic and military relationship with Donovia and a good economic relationship with Ariana. Tensions still exist with Atropia over Lower Janga, an Atropian province that is currently occupied by ethnic Limarians. Additionally, Limaria’s improved trade relations with Ariana have created tension with the US. Limaria will attempt to maintain relations with all the Caucasus powers due to its precarious economic development and isolated geopolitical position.

Pirtuni

Pirtuni lies in Eastern Europe on the northern shore of the Black Sea. Eastern Europe includes a number of politically Western-oriented nations, including some that have recently joined the NATO alliance, and a counterpart grouping of nations that maintain strong economic, political, and military ties with Donovia, historically regarded as the regional superpower. Pirtuni possesses just over 230,000 square miles of territory that shares a 1,200-mile border with Donovia on its east and an eclectic mix of European nation-states on its west and north. The country’s southern border abuts the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The region holds large oil and natural gas reserves that have enhanced the geostrategic importance of both Pirtuni and Donovia. Although the latter boasts the lion’s share of natural resources, the region’s economic well-being depends largely on the unimpeded flow of hydrocarbon products through nearly 35,000 miles of pipelines that crisscross Pirtunian territory.

Southeastern Europe has a long history of warfare, ethnic and religious strife, and high levels of civil unrest. In addition to indigenous divisions and stressors, outside actors that include the US, the European Union (EU), and other major players in the international community are taking an increased interest in the geopolitical dynamics of the region, all seeking to improve their relative position on the world stage.

Regional PMESII-PT Overview

Political

Since the region’s dissolution from Donovian influence, divisions within the Caucasus have hardened to create deep animosity between some of the countries. A long history of conflict created borders that are often illogical, with contested boundaries that divide ethnic groups, rupture trade and communication routes, and split previous economic and political interdependencies. Internal and external forces destabilize the relatively weak Caucasus governments, making them subject to potential breakdown. Despite some advances in the creation of parliamentary and electoral mechanisms, enactment of limited liberal legislation, and the development of new leaders, the legitimacy of the region’s government’s remains limited. These governments often resort to authoritarian methods to retain control of the state: manipulating elections, stifling opposition, clamping down on dissidents, violating political freedoms, and abusing human rights. As a result, the prospects for long-term political, economic, and social stability remain uncertain. Oil and natural gas resources draw outside interests to the region, but its history of outside interference and ethnic conflict makes the nations wary and prone to vendettas and grudges, whether in the their best interests or not.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Theocracy Clerical authority over government structure Token representative government Strong influence of clerical class Wary of “Western Influence” Seeking regional dominance Strong relationship with Limaria Mutually beneficial unofficial relationship with Donovia Generally antagonistic relationship with Atropia	Oligarchy Power belongs to a small, elite group – one family Looks to the West for support Sees Ariana, Donovia, and Limaria as threats US willing to support	Authoritarian Republic Regionally dominant Figurehead elected President Power rests with small group of elites Five main political parties; only one true opposition party Weakening legitimacy of ruling political party Typically neutral to US power and forces; will protect regional position of power Adversarial toward Atropia High levels of crime and corruption	Emerging Democracy Representative republic Values Western principles Looks to distance itself from Donovia Seeks NATO and EU membership	Autocracy A small, elite group controls Limarian politics Values alliance with Donovia Loss of territory to Kalaria influences all decisions Sees Atropia as a threat	Democratic Republican Government is grounded in a basic charter (constitution) Ruling faction is a bloc of political parties that have united to form a coalition government Fledgling yet stable democracy Increased contact with pro-Western countries Foremost regional concern is Donovia

Military

Because of ties to Donovia, most Caucasus countries use primarily Donovian-sourced military doctrine and equipment. Some of the countries recently purchased Western hardware, and their interactions with NATO forces in operations around the world caused them to adopt more Western doctrine and technologies, principally these systems include unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and advanced anti-armor capabilities. Several factors threaten security and stability throughout the region. For the most part, there are no functional border guard units, so the borders remain quite porous. Secessionist conflicts, limited political and economic reforms, and increased social problems provide a fertile ground for germination of radical groups, infiltration of foreign networks, and formation of militant organizations. Overall, unresolved territorial conflicts pose the most dangerous and immediate threat to the region’s security.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Large conventional force Three standing Armies consisting mostly Tier 2 capabilities with four Separate Army Divisions that are considered to be Tier 1 Most capable military in the region after Donovia Faces small insurgencies in southeast Capable of a wide range of operations Successful nuclear weapons program	Small army, navy, and air force Tier 2 conventional forces Limited offensive capabilities Tensions continue with Limaria over Lower Janga province Defense of hydrocarbon resources and infrastructure paramount Two main and several small insurgent groups	Large conventional force Three standing armies with mainly Tier 1 capabilities Most capable military in region Capable of a wide range of operations Successful nuclear weapons program Anti-satellite capabilities Strong INFOWAR capabilities Potential ally of Ariana Relations with Limaria	Smallest military in region Tier 2 conventional forces Defensive capabilities with limited offensive capabilities Tensions continue with provinces of Zabzimek and South Ostremek Donovian-sponsored paramilitaries are current threat, along with the Donovian military	Small military with army and air forces only Tier 2 conventional forces Tensions continue with Atropia over the Lower Janga region Focused on Atropian military and support for allied Lower Janga military forces Terrorist groups present Reports indicate possession of 2-5 nuclear weapons; government denies	Army is the primary military force, smaller air force and navy Tier 2 capabilities for all military branches NATO member Military establishment is grounded in an essentially defensive doctrine Faced with an array of militant threats that include an indigenous ultra-nationalist movement, a pan-Donovian separatist movement, a leftist anti-capitalism movement and several criminal organizations

Economic

Oil and gas resources drive the region’s economy. All international commerce centers around oil drilling and refining and development of a transportation corridor. Significantly, the corridor serves as the main outlet for hydrocarbon resources from both the Caucasus region and the Central Asian countries. Caspian energy projects continue to attract financial involvement as other countries try to gain influence in the region. The contractions of domestic markets and constrained trade opportunities, cause all five Caucasus nations to have limited potential for economic development outside the energy sector. The economic challenge is to identify ways to diversify the region’s economies through restoration and development of critical water resources, agriculture, and the ailing manufacturing sector. The region’s relatively weak central governments focus more on control than developing the fledgling market economies. In this environment inefficiency and criminal elements freely flourish. The minimal diversity places the region’s economies in danger of stagnating, with daily commerce and utilities degrading and the general standard of living falling. Because of this threat, many of the region’s inhabitants are returning to the countryside to survive from the land or seeking permission to migrate abroad.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Economy based on petroleum industry Owns large oil and natural gas reserves International sanctions depress economy Relies on Limaria for international trade Large agricultural sector	Hydrocarbon extraction dependent economy Owns large oil and natural gas reserves Political patronage depresses economic growth	Dominant energy sector Owns large oil and natural gas reserves Large hydrocarbon- related service sector Major international military equipment exporter Current economy resultant from an internal economic collapse 20 years ago	Primarily service economy Large agricultural sector Dependent on trans- national trade routes and pipelines Growth limited due to attempt to cut ties with Donovia	Service and agricultural based economy International trade window for Ariana Benefits from overseas investment from the Limarian diaspora and Donovia	Service and agricultural based economy Depends largely on the flow of Donovian oil and gas products 35,000 miles of pipelines that crisscross the country Abundant agricultural exports are instrumental in establishing a reputation as the breadbasket of Europe

Social

All countries in the region trace their cultures back for centuries and most ethnic groups retain rivalries against each other that date back just as far. The countries have long histories of internal and external volatility, usually over disputed territory. Each country possesses strong ethnic groups that are intolerant of others and each is home to displaced persons who originated from other countries. Many of the IDPs are born into a refugee situation and harbor resentment and intolerance to other displaced groups. This violent history keeps the countries and their people wary of each other and outsiders.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Persian Shia Muslim Culture 51% Persian 24% Atropian 77% literacy rate 1 million refugees/IDPs, 70% there over 25 years 68% of population is urban	Shia Muslim Culture 89% Shia Muslim 91% Atropian 99% literacy rate 1/2 million refugees/IDPs 52% of population is urban	Arab Sunni Hanafi Culture 70% Arabic 98% literacy rate 67% of population is urban	Christian Culture 84% Gorgan 100% literacy rate 1/4 million refugees/IDPs 53% of population is urban	Christian Culture 98% Limarian 99% literacy rate 300,000 refugees/IDPs 64% of population is urban	Christian Culture 78.0% Pirtunian 17.0% Donovian 98% literacy rate 800,000 refugees/IDPs 70% of population is urban

Information

The region receives the majority of its news and information through television, but Internet and mobile phone usage are growing. The region continues to evolve slowly from state-controlled media and information delivery. While governments still attempt to control information, satellite and the internet enable many of the region’s people to bypass governmental controls. Information-based technologies sustained by the use of satellites will become more and more important as the need to communicate quickly, easily, and reliably increases. Satellites not only enable telecommunication across a wide spectrum, but also support economic growth and development, support transportation sectors, and assist with meteorological forecasting. Additional use of commercial satellites supports navigation accuracy, enabling both public and commercial sectors to capitalize on its use. The mass public use of television keeps perception management at the forefront of all political and military operations. Computer attacks have occurred in the region and each country continues to expand both its intelligence and information warfare (INFOWAR) capabilities.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Tightly controlled information/media environment Good INFOWAR capabilities; superior in niche areas	Free but monitored information/media environment Growing INFOWAR capabilites; focus on Limaria and Ariana	Controlled information/media environment Tier 1 INFOWAR capabilities Most capable in region Industry standard in some areas	Most free information/media environment in region Growing and integrated INFOWAR capabilities, mostly focused on Donovia INFOWAR based on NATO standards	Fairly free information/media environment – soft censorship Looks to Donovia for support of INFOWAR capability	Free information/media environment Strives to achieve and maintain technological parity with Donovian INFOWAR capabilities Depends heavily on help from NATO and Western countries to hedge against Donovian INFOWAR

Infrastructure

The Caucasus countries face several hurdles to infrastructure development. Aging infrastructure is affected by natural disasters such as landslides, mudslides, and floods, which routinely cause evacuation of local populations, loss of life, infrastructural damage, and heavy material losses. Development of the region as a transportation corridor will not only increase incomes and economies, but will also expand pollution issues. Construction of roads, railways, and pipelines will cause the loss of valuable agriculture land. Waste dumping along the transportation routes will become a growing issue.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Relatively modern infrastructure Has the resources to maintain and improve infrastructure but priority is on nuclear and oil/natural gas programs International sanctions prevent substantial improvements Possesses both nuclear power and nuclear weapons Seaports - 7 major ports, 5 minor ports	Unable to maintain infrastructure Focus is on oil/natural gas programs Road system incapable of handling military traffic Rural areas lack modern water, electricity, and sewage system Baku International Sea Port on the Caspian Sea is key terrain Seaports - 1 port	Modern infrastructure Western standards in terms of railroads and ports Energy infrastructure is top priority Possesses both nuclear power and nuclear weapons Seaports - 17 major ports, 6 minor ports	Unable to maintain infrastructure Lacks raw materials for its factories Pipelines top priority Port of Poti on the Black Sea is key terrain for the region Seaports - 2 major ports, 1 minor port	Unable to maintain infrastructure Atropia’s recent blockade forced reduction of Limarian industrial output Relies on food imports Lacks modern running water, electricity, and sewage system for much of the population Seaports - No ports (landlocked)	Modern infrastructure Transportation network is expansive and allows easy movement Rural areas lack modern water, electricity, and sewage system Derives its energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power stations Seaports - 12 major ports, 5 minor ports

Physical Environment

Terrain features across the region is similar—dominated by mountains but with deserts and lowlands as well. Of note are the tunnels that exist to facilitate movement of supplies for the military as well as smuggling by criminal organizations and irregular forces. There are several underground facilities used to house nuclear training and enrichment programs.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Located in key position on Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz Faces Caspian Sea Borders Atropia and Limaria Rugged mountainous terrain	Vital transportation corridor between east and west Access to Caspian Sea Varied terrain	Greater Caucasus Mountains separate country from southern neighbors Access to Black and Caspian Seas Varied terrain	Controls much of Caucasus Mountains and routes through them Access to Black Sea Largely mountainous terrain	Landlocked Contains Lake Sevan, the largest lake in the region Mountainous terrain	Transportation corridor between east and west Access to Black and Azov Seas Border with Donovia Varied terrain

Time

For the most part, the regions countries do not believe in the sensitivity of time and do not view punctuality or the importance of time as in most Western countries. The people do not look at time in the short term, but look toward the long term. The more a country interacts with Western nations, however, the more accepting the country becomes to Western ideas on time.

Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria	Pirtuni
Value planning over deadlines Uses the Solar, Lunar, and Gregorian (Western) calendars Harvest cycle is May to August 4 year election cycle, 6 for president, 8 for Forum of Proficiency; no term limit	Punctuality not important Uses Gregorian calendar Harvest cycle is April to October, depending on climatic zone 2 year election cycle for legislature, four consecutive-term limit; 6-year presidential cycle; no term limit	Expect punctuality from Westerners but may not reciprocate Uses Gregorian calendar Harvest cycle is year round 6 year election cycle for president, two consecutive-term limit; 4-year cycle for parliament; no term limit	No urgency to complete tasks Uses Gregorian calendar Harvest cycle is April to October 4 year election cycle for president and legislature, 3- term limit; 10-year cycle for Supreme Court Justices; no term limit	Attempt to be punctual for Westerners Uses Gregorian calendar Harvest cycle is year round 5 year election cycle for all offices; no term limit	Attempt to be punctual for Westerners and expects the same Uses Gregorian calendar Harvest cycle is July to November 5 year election cycle for president, two consecutive-term limit; 4-year cycle for parliament and provincial; no term limit

Strategic Positions

Actors

The US gives increased geopolitical attention to the countries of the Caucasus region (Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria) because of their strategic location that connects Europe to Asia, their hydrocarbon resources, and their key position along this main route for the westward export of Caspian Sea energy resources. Ethno-political conflict that has plagued the Caucasus region for thousands of years led to the death of thousands and material destruction, contributing significantly to political instability, economic hardship, and increased organized crime. Failure to resolve these long-term conflicts continues to keep the region from creating a durable peace and efficient, accountable national governments. Many regional issues will require inter-state cooperation for any significant progress to occur. Other issues besides basic security include natural resource development, water protection, conservation and management, trade and transit, disease prevention, and drug trafficking. Many issues cannot simply be solved on a national basis—no matter how committed a government remains to reform and overall economic development.

Security Strategies

Each country in the region has different threat perceptions formed by its ethno-political situation and religious fervor. Ariana sees “Western influence” as the threat to its culture and bases all decisions on that belief. Atropia perceives threats from Ariana, Donovia, and Limaria, and looks to the West for support. Donovia is adversarial towards Atropia and continues to inject itself into Gorgas’ internal affairs. Gorgas, which mainly sees threats from Donovia and its internal Donovian population, looks to the West for protection. Limaria perceives threats from Atropia and looks to Donovia for security. The Caucasus region countries all seek relationships with outside governments that often prove contradictory. Cooperation continues to deteriorate since the elimination of major Donovian influence impacted the region’s standard of living. This inability to cooperate with neighbors has stymied efforts to tackle regional issues such as drug trafficking. Restrictive tariffs, quantitative controls, and closed crossing points disrupt trade and transit for both goods and people within the Caucasus. While the countries all recognize the importance of regional cooperation on key issues, prospects for cooperation remain dim as ethno-political tensions lead to acute regional conflict.

Potential Conflict Flashpoints

All major players within and bordering the Caucasus region maintain multiple significant strategic interests in conflict with those of their neighbors. Divided by religious and ethnic hatreds hundreds of years old, the Caucasus represents one of the major spots of “frozen conflict” in the world—a critical one that sits astride a major global source for oil and natural gas. The Caucasus countries of Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria find themselves interconnected by ties of conflict unlikely to abate in the near future.

In the Caspian Sea, Ariana and Atropia maintain claims to offshore oil and gas fields that conflict with each other. Atropia also has a chilly relationship with Limaria over Lower Janga. Atropia attempts to sustain cordial relations with Donovia, though the country finds itself dependent on Gorgan pipelines to export oil and gas. Limaria generally remains isolated from its Atropian neighbor, but remains integrated with Donovia and pursues deeper ties with Ariana. Donovia and Ariana attempt to assert their traditional power in the region, while the other independent states seek to preserve their own political identities and economic viability.

Potential conflict flashpoints include:

Atropian blockade of goods and electricity to Limaria: Limaria remains dependent on Gorgas (despite a limited embargo) and Ariana—an international pariah—for access to much of its imports and power.

Lower Janga (current ceasefire): Localized violence routinely disrupts the ceasefire agreement.

South Ostremek (current ceasefire): The ceasefire simply stabilized the conflict lines, as the Donovians want to politically pry Gorgas away from EU or NATO membership, or even close cooperation with the Western world. Gorgas definitely seeks a return to its pre-war territorial boundaries.

Zabzimek (current ceasefire): Like South Ostremek, Gorgas prefers a return to the pre- war status quo and boundaries, while Donovia wants to further isolate Gorgas from its Atropian and Western allies.

Archeological sites and religious shrines in Ariana: Ariana controls significant Shia religious sites where many Muslims conduct pilgrimages for religious purposes.

Transnational pipeline operations: The export of crude oil and natural gas to the world remains a significant challenge for Ariana and Atropia. Oil producers possess several pipeline projects that diversify their export options, but pipelines remain vulnerable to interdiction.

Caspian Sea oil and natural gas reserves: The demarcation of Caspian Sea deposits remains a source of contention. Oil and gas fields are the lifeblood of the countries that possess them, and their exact demarcation leads to contentious arguments over the boundaries.

Arianian nuclear program: The Arianian government’s desire to maintain a robust weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program causes strife with nearly all its neighbors, as the relative power of a WMD-armed Ariana complicates the delicate balance of power that currently exists in the region.

The Caucasus remains an area with dynamic and continuous conflict. Any conflict, especially one that threatens oil and gas production or export, will likely involve outside powers, including the US. The Caucasus also is in a relatively inaccessible spot for US forces due to the geographic realities of airspace and sea lines of communications.

Events

What follows are tables of 77 fictional events set in the year 2016 in various areas throughout the countries of Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria, in the Caucasus region. These events demonstrate possible ways the conditions of the OE described in Section 2 might play out on the ground. Each event is tied to the mission essential task list (METL) to clearly show the tactical-level connection between the event, its related activities, and possible OE variable conditions.

Analysts derived these events from realistic yet fictional potential activities that could easily take place in any of the countries in the Caucasus region. Many of the events could apply to more than one country within the region. Additionally, the events collectively have effects for all variables in the OE: political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time.

Each event is listed at the top of the table, with three to four potential related activities, and their likely OE variable conditions, following. The bottom of each table lists the linked METL tasks. The chart was designed to be clear, yet thorough. Events were analyzed to ensure that the details of each variable in Section 2 supported the possibility of the event, and that each event required a tactical intervention, making it useful to units in training.