Africa

Discussion of the OEs in the DATE

Over 200,000 square miles comprise the Caucasus, a mountainous region located between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. The Caucasus includes Atropia, Limaria, and Gorgas, as well as parts of Ariana, Donovia, and Kalaria. The Caucasus Mountains, consisting of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus ranges, traditionally form the separation between Europe and Asia. The Caucasus region contains two major parts—the North Caucasus and the South Caucasus—that are divided by the Greater Caucasus Mountains. The North Caucasus region is contained entirely within Donovia, while the South Caucasus contains Gorgas, Limaria, Atropia, and parts of Ariana and Kalaria. The Caspian Sea holds large oil and natural gas reserves, potentially as large as those in Saudi Arabia, which contribute to the region’s geostrategic importance.

The region has a long history of warfare; ethnic and religious factionalism; and general political, military, and civilian unrest. In addition to these internal regional divisions, outside actors like the US, the European Union (EU), China, and Middle East nations have increasing strategic interests in the region. The Caucasus thus represents a flashpoint where highly localized conflict can spill over into widespread unrest or general war.

Country 1

Ariana, the area’s second-largest and second-strongest nation militarily, possesses massive oil and gas reserves in its southwest region along the Persian Gulf. This area and the Strait of Hormuz comprise key terrain assets for the country. Ariana’s government is aggressive, capable, revolutionary, and intent on spreading its vision of Islamic governance and the establishment of a new Arianian hegemony throughout the region. Ariana mobilizes target populations through politicization of Islam to accomplish its long-term goals.

Country 2

Atropia is vulnerable because of its natural resources and as a result of conflicts over the Lower Janga region. Atropia possesses significant oil and gas reserves in both the northeast and the Caspian Sea. Further, the Trans-Caucasus petroleum (TC-P) pipeline, one of the most critical infrastructure components in the region, originates near its capital city. These rich natural resources generate potential threats from external forces.

Limaria currently occupies Atropia’s Lower Janga region, an area fought over by Atropia  and Limaria for over a quarter of a century. At present, over 95% of the Lower Janga region population belongs to the Limarian ethnic group. Refugees displaced from the Lower Janga dispute amount to over one million people. An estimated 400,000 Atropian Limarians and 30,000 Lower Janga Limarians fled to Limaria or Donovia to avoid the conflict. An estimated 800,000 Atropians from Limaria or Lower Janga sought refuge in Atropia. Various other ethnic groups in Lower Janga also evacuated to refugee camps in Atropia or Ariana. All efforts to settle the dispute since 1997 have failed. Ariana contains a large internal Atropian ethnic minority and disagrees with Atropia over the delineation of Caspian Sea oil and gas fields. Atropia, a majority Shia nation, resists Arianian- sponsored attempts to politicize Islam within Atropia.

'Country 3'

Donovia is a resurgent nation that, prior to the early 1990s, was the region’s dominant political, economic, military, and social player. Internal turmoil lessened Donovia’s influence  during the period from the 1990s to around 2000. Now, riding a wave of higher oil prices, a reinvigorated Donovia seeks to rebuild its prior levels of regional and international influence through a combination of assertive diplomacy and military power. However, the desire for independence among the other states in the region creates friction between them. Ultimately, Donovia’s neighbors wish to accommodate Donovian power without jeopardizing their core equities.

'Country 4'

Gorgas, like Atropia, is a small yet fiercely independent state in a fragile and dangerous area, but without Atropia’s hydrocarbon assets. The country’s primary strength is geographical—its Black Sea ports and land border with Kalaria make it a logical pipeline route and regional outlet to the outside world. Gorgas remains among the smallest and least economically developed nations in the region. It currently exists in a state of “frozen conflict” with Donovia over Donovian attempts to block Gorgas from NATO and EU membership, as well as Donovian support for Zabzimek and South Ostremek— two breakaway regions formerly part of Gorgas.

The breakaway territory Zabzimek is located in northwest Gorgas and borders Donovia. Currently, a ceasefire and line of separation exist between Gorgas and Zabzimek, but the Zabzimek militia poses a threat to the port of Poti and lines of communication from the Black Sea to the Gorgan capital city of Tbilisi. Zabzimek achieved de facto independence after the conflict with Gorgas in 1992, but only Donovia and Nicaragua recognize the country internationally. Strong criminal elements operate in Zabzimek.

South Ostremek, in north-central Gorgas, also wants independence from Gorgas. Like Zabzimek, South Ostremek achieved de facto independence after the 2008 Donovia-Gorgas War, but only Donovia and Nicaragua recognize the new country internationally. South Ostremek wants to reunite with North Ostremek, a Donovian province. Currently, a ceasefire remains in effect between Gorgas and South Ostremek, primarily monitored by Donovian peacekeepers.

Country 5

Limaria, a small and poor country, neighbors Atropia, Ariana, Gorgas, and Kalaria and also occupies the Lower Janga region. Limaria currently enjoys a strong economic and military relationship with Donovia and a good economic relationship with Ariana. Tensions still exist with Atropia over the disputed Lower Janga region, an Atropian province that is currently occupied by ethnic Limarians. Additionally, Ariana’s and Limaria’s improved trade relations have created tension with the US. Limaria will attempt to maintain relations with all the Caucasus powers due to its precarious economic development and isolated geopolitical position

Regional PMESII-PT Overview

Political

Since the region’s distancing from Donovian influence, political divisions within the Caucasus have hardened to create deep animosity between some of the countries. A long history of conflict has created borders that are often illogical, with contested boundaries that divide ethnic groups, rupture trade and communication routes, and split previous economic and political interdependencies. Internal and external forces destabilize the relatively weak Caucasus governmental structures make the governments subject to potential breakdown. Ariana and Atropia put up the front of a democracy with elected officials—Ariana with its legislature and Atropia with attempts to follow the Kalarian secular-Muslim model; but in reality, power belongs to a small elite group. In Ariana, the clerical authority roots out serious dissent and liquidates any opposition. In Atropia, a ruling family dominates all political life. Gorgas wants to sever its former ties with Donovia as it courts membership in NATO and the EU. Limaria retains its ties with Donovia but would not hesitate to turn to other countries if such an alliance would ensure its survival.

Despite some advances in the creation of parliamentary and electoral mechanisms, enactment of limited liberal legislation, and the development of new leaders, the legitimacy of the region’s governments remains limited. These governments often resort to authoritarian methods to retain control of the state: manipulating elections, stifling opposition, clamping down on dissidents, violating political freedoms, and abusing human rights. As a result, long-term political, economic, and social stability prospects remain uncertain. Oil and natural gas resources draw outside powers  to the Caucasus, but the region’s history of outside interference and ethnic conflict makes its nations wary and prone to vendettas and grudges, whether in the countries’ best interests or not.

Contributing to the inter-regional strife are the various political ideals and goals espoused by each individual nation:

• Ariana is a true theocracy, with every significant political action affected by the clerical class. A brutally efficient military ensures the continuation of the current power structure, while a sham representative government appeases or distracts Western interests.

• Atropia is a classic dictatorship and uses a dynastic approach to governance. Every national success or failure reflects directly on the ruling family.

• Donovia is an authoritarian state led by a small, incestuous elite. This group uses state power and resources to enrich itself and secure both domestic and international political support. The Donovian elite wants to return Donovia to a co-equal place with the Great Powers of the world.

• Gorgas is a political oddity in the region as an emerging representative democracy. In a region driven by group politics and ethnic nationalism, Gorgas is trying to make a democracy work and stands to lose much if let down by Western interests.

• Limaria is an autocracy. Limaria’s key political goal is the survival and advancement of the Limarian ethnicity. Any argument for action between Limarians can be won by the side offering better protection for the local and Diaspora population.

Military

Because of ties to Donovia, most Caucasus countries use primarily Donovian-sourced military doctrine and equipment. Some of the countries, however, recently purchased Western hardware, and their interactions with NATO forces in operations around the world caused them to adopt more Western doctrine and technologies like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and advanced anti-armor capabilities.

Several factors threaten security and stability throughout the Caucasus region. For the most part, the region has no functional border guard units, so the borders remain quite porous. Secessionist conflicts, limited political and economic reforms, and increased social problems provide a fertile ground for germination of radical groups, infiltration of foreign Islamic networks, and formation of militant organizations. Overall, unresolved territorial conflicts pose the most dangerous and immediate threat to the region’s security.

Ariana maintains the second-largest military of the five Caucasus countries—behind Donovia. Militarily, it is a dominant actor within the region, capable of conducting military action across the spectrum of operations. The Arianian military conducts overt, covert, and clandestine operations  with ripple effects across the region. Reporting also suggests ties between elements of Ariana’s military to criminal and terror groups within the region, which further extends the potential for a global threat. Ariana has generally antagonistic relations with Atropia and maintains good ties with Limaria. Ariana is focused on keeping Western influence out of the region and maintaining its current status and self-perceived logical role as a regional strongman. Reports indicate that Ariana possesses nuclear weapons, with three nuclear sites identified at Qom, Isfahan, and Natanz.

Atropia’s military forces consist of a small army, navy, and air force that have limited offensive capability, with doctrine and structure that reflect decades of Donovian influence. Due to the military’s small size, Atropia restricts its scope to defending the country’s borders and regional operations, mostly directed at Limaria. Atropian military forces emulate Limaria’s in size and capability, and the two nations are currently engaged in an ongoing arms race. Enduring skirmishes with Limaria over disputed territory drive Atropia’s deployment of forces. To counter Donovian support for Limaria, the Atropian military is attempting to gain Arianian military support to help reclaim lost territory. Atropia’s hydrocarbon revenue is currently allowing its military to modernize its equipment. The Atropian military’s current key mission is to defend its oil and gas infrastructure. Atropia hopes its oil and gas revenues—and the resulting prestige and power—will translate into a more robust military and overall regional power.

Donovia maintains a strong military, partially as an inheritance from its pre-1991 strength and partially through economic wealth being used to transform the pre-1991 military remnants into a modern military. Donovian doctrine and tactics are complex, supple, and competent, making Donovia a capable opponent. Donovia’s military capability ranges from irregular forces to nuclear weapons and anti-space capability. This strong military, combined with its assertive political agenda, make Donovia a prime consideration for all nations in the region.

Like the rest of the Caucasus region, Gorgas has an extensive history of irregular and regular warfare. Of the five countries, Gorgas maintains the smallest military—consisting of a ground force, air force, and sea force (coast guard) capability for defensive operations, with limited offensive capabilities. Gorgas uses the military for defense and to maintain territorial sovereignty that includes regaining breakaway regions. Gorgas is currently attempting to join NATO and is the most accepting of Western influence.

Regular and irregular warfare also permeate Limaria’s history. Limaria is heavily influenced by Donovia, which currently has advisors in the country. Limaria would most likely remain neutral if conflict began with Ariana. The Limarian military consists of only an army and an air force, and is roughly the size of the Atropian military. The Limarian military, heavily influenced by the territorial dispute with Atropia, cannot project forces outside of the region.

Economic

Oil and gas resources drive the region’s economy. All international commerce centers around oil drilling and refining, and development of a transportation corridor. Significantly, the corridor serves as the main world market outlet for hydrocarbon resources from both the Caucasus region and the Central Asian countries. In addition, China and Japan continue to extend their influence into the region through financial involvement with Caspian energy projects. Ariana, Atropia, and Donovia possess the fossil fuels, while Gorgas provides the pipeline access required to ship oil and gas abroad. Limaria would like to participate in the transshipment of petroleum products, but its dispute with Atropia over the Lower Janga region precludes this possibility.

Regional conflicts compound local economic problems, generating hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and encouraging many others to leave their country, especially for Donovia. Donovia serves as the main market for regional goods, primarily hydrocarbon products and foodstuffs for several reasons, including international markets closed because of political instability, insufficient alternate transit routes, and stiff trade tariffs. With domestic markets contracted and trade opportunities constrained, all five Caucasus nations have limited potential for economic development outside the energy sector. The economic challenge is to identify ways to diversify the region’s economies through restoration and development of critical water resources, agriculture, and the ailing manufacturing sector. The region’s relatively weak central governments focus more on control than on the fledgling market economies, so inefficiency and criminal elements freely flourish. Its minimal diversity places the region’s economies in danger of stagnating, with  daily commerce and utilities degrading and the general standard of living falling. Because of this threat, some of the region’s inhabitants are returning to the countryside to survive from the land or seeking permission to migrate abroad.

The Arianian economy primarily centers on its petroleum industry, though it is highly diversified compared to other petroleum-dependent economies. The Arianians have attempted to create an industrial manufacturing sector, especially as international sanctions require them to increasingly in-source manufactured goods. Ariana also has a large agriculture sector.

Atropia’s economy is also dependent on hydrocarbon extraction. Most industry other than oil and gas is engaged in subsistence-level agriculture or services. Atropia has attempted to diversify its  economy with little success. It is likely that hydrocarbon dependence will be the hallmark of the Atropian economy indefinitely.

Donovia is using its petrochemical wealth to climb out of economic stagnation. However, beneath the veneer of a market economy, former command elements have morphed into a crony capitalist economy. State-associated businesses dominate the economic landscape, and businesses not  affiliated with the government face significant hurdles from a variety of government bureaucracies. The general response to massive corruption is more corruption, which affects nearly every element of Donovian economic life. Services are an important element of the Donovian economy, but export of non-military manufactured goods and services remain dwarfed by hydrocarbon-based exports.

Gorgas is primarily a service economy, with many citizens also engaged in subsistence agriculture as a secondary sector. While the Gorgan economy is relatively free, development has been slow. The most likely growth opportunity will be as a petroleum transshipment point. Even this bright spot in the economy is overshadowed by the lingering, cooling effects of the Donovian-Gorgas War.

Limaria, like Gorgas, is a service and agriculture-based economy. While not as politically free as Gorgas, Limaria benefits from overseas investment from the Limarian Diaspora and Donovia. Due to a  near blockade  of  goods  and  services from  Kalaria  and Atropia,  Limaria  is dependent  on  its relationships with Ariana and Gorgas for the movement of goods and services. However, international sanctions against Ariana and a limited Gorgan trade embargo against Limaria hamper the effectiveness of these partnerships.

Social

All countries in the region can trace their cultures back for centuries, and most ethnic groups retain rivalries against each other that date back just as far. The countries have long histories of internal and external volatility, usually over disputed territory. Each country possesses strong ethnic groups that do not tolerate others, and each is home to displaced persons who originated from the others’ territory. Many of the IDPs are born into a refugee situation and harbor resentment and intolerance to other displaced groups. This violent history keeps the countries and their people wary of each  other and of regional outsiders.

Literacy rates are high in the region, with only Ariana possessing a rate lower than 98%. Atropia, Gorgas, Limaria, and Donovia have all instituted educational reforms during the past two decades, with the aim of producing qualified, internationally competitive citizens who will reduce poverty, improve social welfare, and encourage economic growth.

The vast majority of Ariana’s citizens are Shia Muslim and view themselves as either Persian or Arianian, depending on ethnicity. With a rich culture and heritage, Ariana’s social issues stem not from its people but from its leaders, whose actions are considered corrupt and repressive. Protests over government corruption, unequal wealth distribution, high inflation, and high unemployment rates occur often, despite the government’s frequent use of force to put them down.

Atropia consists mainly of ethnic Atropian Shia Muslim, with small ethnic and religious minorities. Most Atropians choose to support the government, which may well be due to the continuing dispute with Limaria over the Lower Janga region. Those that do not usually fall into two categories: separatists who wish to create a new country from southern Atropia and northwest Ariana; and those upset over taxation, lack of utilities, substandard social services, and judicial favoritism.

Donovia’s population is predominately Arab Sunni, with significant social-related issues that retard economic and political development. In addition, certain Donovian social fabric elements, such as massive smoking, pervasive corruption, and endemic violence, have created significant social volatility that is manifested through gender imbalance, high crime rates, and systemic discrimination against ethnic minorities.

Most Gorgan citizens are of the same ethnicity and practice Orthodox Christianity. Though attacks do occur against other ethnic groups and religions, the government is working to protect the rights of minorities, as well as freedom of speech and of the press. Most social unrest revolves around Gorgas’ breakaway republics, which both the government and its citizens would like to see returned to Gorgan control.

Nearly all Limarians are ethnic Limarian Christians. Those that are not suffer some discrimination, but not at the levels experienced in neighboring countries. Major social issues that shape Limarian thinking are hatred of the Kalarians—a residue of loss of territory in the 1940s—and support for the autonomous Lower Janga region in Atropia.

Information

The Caucasus region receives the majority of its news and information through television, but Internet and mobile phone usage are growing. The region continues to evolve slowly from state- controlled media and information delivery. While governments still attempt to control information, satellite and computer technology enable many of the region’s people to bypass governmental controls. Information-based technologies sustained by the use of satellites will become more and

more important as the need to communicate quickly, easily, and reliably increases. Satellites not only enable telecommunication across a wide spectrum, but also support economic growth and development, support transportation sectors, and assist with meteorological forecasting. Additional use of commercial satellites also supports navigation, enabling both public and commercial sectors to capitalize on the use of satellite technologies.

As more international companies move into the growing information market, technology and access continue to become more affordable to the average citizen. The mass use of television keeps perception management at the forefront of all political and military operations. Computer attacks have occurred in the region, and each country continues to expand both its Intelligence and Information Warfare (INFOWAR) capabilities.

Ariana is a highly-controlled information environment. The government controls all media outlets and attempts to limit its citizens’ access to outside sources of information like the Internet and satellite TV broadcasts. Despite the government’s actions, Arianian citizens—especially the educated urban elite—have aggressively attempted to circumvent the government-imposed information embargo.

The Atropian government attempts to regulate the information environment through ownership control of the main media outlets and occasional arrests of bloggers and reporters. No significant nongovernment-affiliated media outlets exist. The Atropian government also attempts to control the content of religious messages through the selection of religious authorities. If Atropians avoid messages with a strong religious or antigovernment tone, the content is generally allowed by the government.

Donovia is a world leader in INFOWAR. While information is subject to government pressure and outright censorship, censorship is usually self-imposed. Opinions contrary to the standing government line are primarily found in social media, which is outside the government oversight imposed on other mass media communications.

Gorgas maintains a generally free press, though government ownership and connections with media owners make certain subjects off limits. Unlike other countries in the region, Gorgas does have some media outlets that are independent, so debate in Gorgas is the freest among Caucasian countries.

Limaria follows the pattern set by Gorgas and Atropia, falling between the two in overall control of the information environment. The Limarian government controls the media environment, but only to a degree that does not antagonize its neighbors or the West. In this fashion, the Limarian government maintains the most flexible information posture.

Infrastructure

The Caucasus countries face several hurdles to infrastructure development. Atropia, Gorgas, Limaria, and Donovia rely on infrastructure mainly built decades ago, while Ariana possesses a somewhat newer infrastructure. The region remains dependent on oil and natural gas reserves in Ariana, Atropia, and Donovia. While these countries possess the financial resources to improve their infrastructure, Western embargos against Ariana, ethno-political issues in Atropia, and lack of government priority in Donovia prevent most infrastructure improvement outside the hydrocarbon industries. This aging infrastructure is affected by natural disasters such as landslides, mudslides, and floods, which routinely cause evacuation of local populations, loss of life, infrastructural damage and heavy material losses. Development of the Caucasus as a transportation corridor will not only increase incomes and boost the Atropian and Gorgan economies, but will also expand air pollution and noise issues. Construction of roads, railways, and pipelines may cause the loss of valuable agriculture land. Waste dumping along the transportation routes will become a growing issue.

Ariana has the second most modern infrastructure in the Caucasus region because of wealth generated by hydrocarbon exports. Ariana contains 12 cities with a population of over one million residents, high building density, and developed power, water, and sewage utilities that can reach at least 75% of the urban residents. Ariana operates complex transportation architecture with abundant multi-lane hard-surface highway networks, railway lines, and many operational airports. Ariana also possesses nuclear power plants, nuclear research facilities, and civilian industrial plants with the capacity to produce military-grade nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.

Atropia’s largest cities possess a high building density and over 75% of the residents in the 10 largest cities enjoy access to modern power, water, and sewage utilities. The country has only moderate transportation architecture due to limited railroad lines. Conversely, it possesses considerable hydrocarbon resource infrastructure to export crude oil and natural gas to the outside world. Atropia has no nuclear power plants and only limited industrial capacity outside the hydrocarbon industry.

Despite years of neglect, Donovia still possesses the most modern infrastructure in the region. Of Donovia’s five largest cities, two have more than 1 million residents and lie outside its Northern Caucasus provinces. The remaining three are within the Caucasus region and have less than 1.1 million residents combined. All five provide more than 75% of their residents with access to modern utilities. The country has a complex transportation architecture with paved roads, railroads, and multiple airports. Dozens of nuclear power plants exist, as do nuclear research and industrial plants that can produce military-grade nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.

The five largest Gorgan cities exhibit a high building density and in four these, 75% of residents have access to modern power, water, and sewer utilities. Zugdidi and all smaller Gorgan cities have only a utility access rate of 25-50%. Due to limited railroad lines and a lack of secondary roads between major cities, Gorgas has moderate transportation architecture. The country contains no nuclear power plants and little major industrial capacity.

Of the five Caucasus countries, Limaria’s infrastructure is the least modern. The five largest Limarian cities show a high building density, but modern power and water access rates are usually 25-50%. Yerevan is the only exception, with a utility access rate of over 75% for power and water. Limited railroad access and a lack of multi-lane hard surface roads limit Limaria to a moderate transportation architecture. The country operates no nuclear power plants and possesses little industrial capacity, as most Limarians work in agriculture or the service industry. Recent reports indicate Limaria may have gained possession of a small number of nuclear weapons.

Physical Environment

Terrain features across the Caucasus region are similar—dominated by mountains but with deserts and lowlands as well. Specifically, Ariana features a plateau of deserts in the east with mountains prevalent in other areas of the country. Its coast is bordered by the Caspian Sea on the north, the Persian Gulf on the southwest, and the Gulf of Oman on the south. Lowlands are present in Atropia, but the Greater and Lesser Caucasus Mountains are the primary terrain feature throughout the country. Southern Donovia is primarily mountainous, though its access to most of the major outside world means its geographic position assures its strategic importance. The Greater and Lesser Caucasus Mountains hem in Gorgas to the north and south, respectively, while the Likhi Range divides the country into eastern and western parts. Limaria is 70% mountains, primarily the Lesser Caucasus. Central Limaria consists of a plateau whose elevation gradually decreases as it meets the Aras River Valley. Of note also are the tunnels that exist in these countries to facilitate movement of supplies for the military as well as smuggling by criminal organizations and irregular forces, and underground facilities used to house nuclear training and enrichment programs

Time

The Caucasus countries, for the most part, do not believe in the sensitivity of time and do not view punctuality or the importance of time as most Western countries do. The people do not look at time  in the short term, but look toward the long term. Time commitments are seen more as an objective to be achieved, if possible, rather than a requirement to be met. Promptness is based on relationships, with people being much more likely to be on time if the person who sets the time commitment is  close to him, such as a friend or family member. The more a country interacts with Western nations, however, the more accepting the country becomes to Western ideas on time.

Variable Conditions by OE

	Ariana	Atropia	Donovia	Gorgas	Limaria
Political	Theocracy - Clerical authority over government structure - Token representative government -Strong influence of clerical class - Wary of “Western Influence” - Seeking regional dominance - Strong relationship with Limaria - Mutually beneficial unofficial relationship with Donovia Generally antagonistic relationship with Atropia	Dictatorship - Power belongs to a small, elite group – one family - Looks to the West for support - Sees Ariana, Donovia, and Limaria as threats US willing to support	Authoritarian Republic - Regionally dominant - Figurehead elected President - Power rests with small group of elites - Five main political parties; only one true opposition party - Weakening legitimacy of ruling political party - Typically neutral to US power and forces; will protect regional position of power - Adversarial toward Atropia High levels of crime and corruption	Emerging Democracy - Representative republic - Values Western principles - Looks to distance itself from Donovia Seeks NATO and EU membership	Autocracy - A small, elite group controls Limarian politics - Values alliance with Donovia - Loss of territory to Kalaria influences all decisions Sees Atropia as a threat
Military	Large conventional force - Three standing Armies consisting mostly Tier 2 capabilities with four Separate Army Divisions that are considered to be Tier 1 - Most capable military in the region after Donovia - Faces small insurgencies in southeast - Capable of a wide range of operations Successful nuclear weapons program	Small army, navy, and air force - Tier 2 conventional forces - Limited offensive capabilities - Tensions continue with Limaria over Lower Janga region - Defense of hydrocarbon resources and infrastructure paramount Two main and several small insurgent groups	Large conventional force - Three standing armies with mainly Tier 1 capabilities - Most capable military in region - Capable of a wide range of operations - Successful nuclear weapons program - Anti-satellite capabilities - Strong INFOWAR capabilities - Potential ally of Ariana Relations with Limaria	Smallest military in region - Tier 2 conventional forces - Defensive capabilities with limited offensive capabilities - Tensions continue with Zabzimek and South Ostremek (breakaway Gorgan republics) Donovian-sponsored paramilitaries are current threat, along with the Donovian military	Small military with army and air forces only - Tier 2 conventional forces - Tensions continue with Atropia over the Lower Janga region - Focused on Atropian military and support for allied Lower Janga military forces - Terrorist groups present Reports indicate possession of 2-5 nuclear weapons; government denies
Economic	Economy based on petroleum industry - Owns large oil and natural gas reserves - International sanctions depress economy - Relies on Limaria for international trade Large agricultural sector	Hydrocarbon extraction dependent economy - Owns large oil and natural gas reserves Political patronage depresses economic growth	Dominant energy sector - Owns large oil and natural gas reserves - Large hydrocarbon- related service sector - Major international military equipment exporter Current economy resultant from an internal economic collapse of 1991	Primarily service economy - Large agricultural sector - Dependent on trans- national trade routes and pipelines Growth limited due to attempt to cut ties with Donovia	Service and agricultural based economy - International trade window for Ariana
Social	Persian Shia Muslim Culture - 51% Persian - 24% Atropian - 77% literacy rate - 1 million IDPs, 70% there over 20 years 68% of population is urban	Shia Muslim Culture - 89% Shia Muslim - 91% Atropian - 99% literacy rate - 1/2 million IDPs 52% of population is urban	Arab Sunni Hanafi Culture - 70% Arabic - 98% literacy rate 67% of population is urban	Christian Culture - 84% Gorgan - 100% literacy rate - 1/4 million IDPs 53% of population is urban	Christian Culture - 98% Limarian - 99% literacy rate - 300,000 IDPs 64% of population is urban
Information	Tightly controlled information/media environment - Good INFOWAR capabilities; superior in niche areas	Free but monitored information/media environment - Growing INFOWAR capabilites; focus on Limaria and Ariana	Controlled information/media environment - Tier 1 INFOWAR capabilities - Most capable in region Industry standard in some areas	Most free information/media environment in region - Growing and integrated INFOWAR capabilities, mostly focused on Donovia INFOWAR based on NATO standards	Fairly free information/media environment – soft censorship - Looks to Donovia for support of INFOWAR capability
Infrastructure	Relatively modern infrastructure - Has the resources to maintain and improve infrastructure but priority is on nuclear and oil/natural gas programs - International sanctions prevent substantial improvements Possesses both nuclear power and nuclear weapons	Unable to maintain infrastructure - Focus is on oil/natural gas programs - Road system incapable of handling military traffic - Rural areas lack modern water, electricity, and sewage system Baku International Sea Port on the Caspian Sea is key terrain	Modern infrastructure - Western standards in terms of railroads and ports - Energy infrastructure is top priority Possesses both nuclear power and nuclear weapons	Unable to maintain infrastructure - Lacks raw materials for its factories - Pipelines top priority Port of Poti on the Black Sea is key terrain for the region	Unable to maintain infrastructure - Atropia’s recent blockade forced reduction of Limarian industrial output - Relies on food imports Lacks modern running water, electricity, and sewage system for much of the population
Physical Environment	Located in key position on Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz - Faces Caspian Sea - Borders Atropia and Limaria Rugged mountainous terrain	Vital transportation corridor between east and west -Access to Caspian Sea - Varied terrain	Greater Caucasus Mountains separate country from southern neighbors - Access to Black and Caspian Seas Varied terrain	Controls much of Caucasus Mountains and routes through them - Access to Black Sea Largely mountainous terrain	Landlocked - Contains Lake Sevan, the largest lake in the region Mountainous terrain
Time	Value planning over deadlines - Uses the Solar, Lunar, and Gregorian (Western) calendars - Harvest cycle is May to August 4-year election cycle, 6 for president, 8 for Forum of Proficiency; no term limit	Punctuality not important - Uses Gregorian calendar - Harvest cycle is April to October, depending on climatic zone 2-year election cycle for legislature, four consecutive-term limit; 6-year presidential cycle, no term limit	Expect punctuality from Westerners but may not reciprocate - Uses Gregorian calendar - Harvest cycle is year round 6-year election cycle for president, two consecutive-term limit; 4-year cycle for parliament	No urgency to complete tasks - Uses Gregorian calendar - Harvest cycle is April to October 4-year election cycle for all offices; three- term limit	Attempt to be punctual for Westerners - Uses Gregorian calendar - Harvest cycle is year round 5-year election cycle for all offices; no term limit

Strategic Positions

Actors

The US gives increased geopolitical attention to the countries of the Caucasus region (Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria) because of their strategic location that connects Europe to Asia, their hydrocarbon resources, and their key position along this main route for the westward export of Caspian Sea energy resources. Ethno-political conflict that has plagued the Caucasus region for thousands of years led to the death of thousands and material destruction, contributing significantly to political instability, economic hardship, and increased organized crime. Failure to resolve these long-term conflicts continues to keep the region from creating a durable peace and efficient, accountable national governments. Many regional issues will require inter-state  cooperation for any significant progress to occur. Other issues besides basic security include natural resource development, water protection, conservation and management, trade and transit, disease prevention, and drug trafficking. Many issues cannot simply be solved on a national basis—no matter how committed a government remains to reform and overall economic development.

Security Strategies

Each country in the region has different threat perceptions formed by its ethno-political situation  and religious fervor. Limaria perceives threats from Atropia and looks to Donovia for security. Atropia perceives threats from Ariana, Limaria, and Donovia and looks to the West for support. Gorgas, which mainly sees threats from Donovia and its internal Donovian population, looks to the West for protection. Ariana sees “Western influence” as the threat to its culture and bases all decisions on that belief. Donovia is adversarial towards Atropia and continues to inject itself into Gorgas’ internal affairs. The Caucasus region countries all seek relationships with outside governments that often prove contradictory. Cooperation continues to deteriorate since the elimination of major Donovian influence impacted the region’s standard of living. This inability to cooperate with neighbors has stymied efforts to tackle regional issues such as drug trafficking. Restrictive tariffs, quantitative controls, and closed crossing points disrupt trade and transit for bothgoods and people within the Caucasus. While the countries all recognize the importance of regional cooperation on key issues, prospects for cooperation remain dim as ethno-political tensions lead to acute regional conflict.

Potential Conflict Flashpoints

All major players within and bordering the Caucasus region maintain multiple significant strategic interests in conflict with those of their neighbors. Divided by religious and ethnic hatreds hundreds of years old, the Caucasus represents one of the major spots of “frozen conflict” in the world—a critical one that sits astride a major global source for oil and natural gas. The Caucasus countries of Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria find themselves interconnected by ties of conflict unlikely to abate in the near future.

In the Caspian Sea, Ariana and Atropia maintain claims to offshore oil and gas fields that conflict with each other. Atropia also has a chilly relationship with Limaria over the Lower Janga region. Atropia attempts to sustain cordial relations with Donovia, though the country finds itself dependent on Gorgan pipelines to export oil and gas. Limaria generally remains isolated from its Atropian and Kalarian neighbors, but remains integrated with Donovia and pursues deeper ties with Ariana. Donovia and Ariana attempt to assert their traditional power in the region, while the other independent states seek to preserve their own political identities and economic viability.

Potential conflict flashpoints include:

• Atropian blockade of goods and electricity to Limaria: Limaria remains dependent on Gorgas (despite a limited embargo) and Ariana—an international pariah—for access to much of its imports and power.

• Lower Janga (current ceasefire): Localized violence routinely disrupts the ceasefire agreement.

• South Ostremek (current ceasefire): The ceasefire simply stabilized the conflict lines, as the Donovians want to politically pry Gorgas away from EU or NATO membership, or even close cooperation with the Western world. Gorgas definitely seeks a return to its pre-war territorial boundaries.

• Zabzimek (current ceasefire): Like South Ostremek, Gorgas prefers a return to the pre- war status quo and boundaries, while Donovia wants to further isolate Gorgas from its Atropian and Western allies.

• Archeological sites and religious shrines in Ariana: Ariana controls significant Shia religious sites where many Muslims conduct pilgrimages for religious purposes.

• Transnational pipeline operations: The export of crude oil and natural gas to the world remains a significant challenge for Ariana and Atropia. Oil producers possess several pipeline projects that diversify their export options, but pipelines remain vulnerable to interdiction.

• Caspian Sea oil and natural gas reserves: The demarcation of Caspian Sea deposits remains a source of contention. Oil and gas fields are the lifeblood of the countries that possess them, and their exact demarcation leads to contentious arguments over the boundaries.

• Arianian nuclear program: The Arianian government’s desire to maintain a robust weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program causes strife with nearly all its neighbors, as the relative power of a WMD-armed Ariana complicates the delicate balance of power that currently exists in the region.

The Caucasus remains an area with dynamic and continuous conflict. Any conflict, especially one that threatens oil and gas production or export, will likely involve outside powers, including the US. The Caucasus also is in a relatively inaccessible spot for US forces due to the geographic realities of airspace and sea lines of communications.

Threat Actor Chart

Threat Actor	Organization Type	OE	Activities	Targets
Salasyl	Insurgent	Southeast Atropia with nation-wide capabilities	Possible ties to transnational criminal and terrorist actors. Has engaged the Atropian regime in a lowlevel insurgency for the past 20 years. Promotes violent populace opposition to state taxation policies, unreliable public services, substandard medical preventive services, inaccessible state education programs for working class citizens, and a judicial system that illegally favors the ruling political party. Salasyl and South Atropian People's Army (SAPA) insurgents often clash violently over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
South Atropian People's Army (SAPA)	Insurgent	Focuses on eight provinces in the south with cultural ties to Ariana	Primary goal is to create a separate country composed of southern Atropia and Ariana's northwestern provinces. Receives most of its training, equipment, and supplies from Ariana. SAPA and Salasyl insurgents often clash violently over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
Bilasuvar Freedom Brigade (BFB)	Insurgent	Northern Vetlia and Erdabil Provinces	Donovia supports the BFB, creating political tension between Donovia and Atropia.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
Provisional Army of Lezgin (PAL)	Insurgent	Southern Erdabil and Western Sirvaki Provinces	Small insurgent group with limited regional activities.	Atropian government facilities and leaders
Bocyowicz Crime Family	Criminal	Ungoverned Territories	Acquires political power in poorly-governed regions, eventually gaining control of geographic space. These political actions are intended to provide security and freedom of movement for the criminal organization's activities. As a result, the third-generation criminal organization and its leadership challenge the legitimate state authority.	Atropian police and security forces
Atropian Organized Crime (AOC)	Criminal	Baku	The growth of illegal narcotics, smuggling, and even human trafficking conducted outside of established channels only began recently. Many of those involved in Atropian illegal activities live in communities of displaced Atropians from Lower Janga and persons who fled Donovia. Atropia serves as a transit point for narcotics travelling to Donovia and Western countries.	Police and security forces
Al Iksir Cartel	Criminal	Northern Atropia and Southern Donovia	The growth of illegal narcotics, smuggling, and even human trafficking conducted outside of established channels only began recently. Many of those involved in Atropian illegal activities live in communities of displaced Atropians from Lower Janga and persons who fled Donovia. Atropia serves as a transit point for narcotics travelling to Donovia and Western countries.	Police and security forces

Events

Main article: Caucasus: Events

What follows are tables of 77 fictional events set in the year 2016 in various areas throughout the countries of Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria, in the Caucasus region. These events demonstrate possible ways the conditions of the OE described in Section 2 might play out on the ground. Each event is tied to the mission essential task list (METL) to clearly show the tactical-level connection between the event, its related activities, and possible OE variable conditions.

Analysts derived these events from realistic yet fictional potential activities that could easily take place in any of the countries in the Caucasus region. Many of the events could apply to more than one country within the region. Additionally, the events collectively have effects for all variables in  the OE: political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time.

Each event is listed at the top of the table, with three to four potential related activities, and their likely OE variable conditions, following. The bottom of each table lists the linked METL tasks. The chart was designed to be clear, yet thorough. Events were analyzed to ensure that the details of each variable in Section 2 supported the possibility of the event, and that each event required a tactical intervention, making it useful to units in training.