Chapter 6: Terrorism

This page is a section of TC 7-100.3 Irregular Opposing Forces.

Terrorism is a tactic. This chapter presents an overview of conditions that are a composite of real-world capabilities and limitations that may be present in a complex operational environment that includes terrorism. Acts of terrorism demonstrate an intention to cause significant psychological and/or physical effects on a relevant population through the use or threat of violence. Terrorism strategies are typically a long-term commitment to degrade the resilience of an enemy in order to obtain concessions from an enemy with whom terrorists are in conflict. International conventions and/or law of war protocols on armed conflict are often not a constraint on terrorists. Whether acts of terrorism are deliberate, apparently random, and/or purposely haphazard, the physical, symbolic, and/or psychological effects can diminish the confidence of a relevant population for its key leaders and governing institutions. Social and political pressure, internal and/or external to a relevant population and governing authority, is frequently exploited by terrorists with near real-time media coverage in the global information environment. The local, regional, international, and/or transnational attention on acts of terrorism by state and/or non-state actors can often isolate an enemy from its relevant population and foster support of organizations, units, or individuals who feel compelled to use terror to achieve their objectives. The themes and messages promoted by terrorists can accent anxiety, demoralize the resolve of a relevant population and its leaders, and eventually defeat an enemy.

Terrorism in Complex Operational Environments

Terrorism can be defined as the use of violence or threat of violence to instill fear and coerce governments or societies. Often motivated by philosophical or other ideological beliefs, objectives are typically political in nature. The pursuit of goals and conduct labeled as terrorism by some actors in complex operational environments (OE) can be considered fully justifiable by other actors. The spectrum of actors in an OE can range political, public, and/or commercial institutions, other institutions appearing legitimate but disguising an illicit agenda, and/or organizations and individuals who openly declare intent to use terror as a matter of policy and practice. Irregular forces typically use terrorism (see figure 6-1).

Figure 6-1. Terrorism actors in complex operational environments

The geographical perspectives of local, national, regional, international, and/or transnational terrorist acts can indicate why terrorism is used but a more effective measure of understanding terrorism must relate directly to the actors involved in a particular OE. Ultimately, terrorism is about people and the psychological effectiveness of convincing or compelling a relevant population to act in a desired manner.

Multiple actors in an OE can use terrorism to enhance the conditions that favor their agenda and overarching purpose. Terrorism in irregular actions favors indirect and asymmetric approaches. However, terrorism can be employed within a full range of military and other explicit or subtle capabilities in order to erode an enemy’s power, influence, and will. Irregular forces are generally categorized as armed individuals or groups who are not members of the regular armed forces, police, or other internal security forces of a governing authority. Similarly, a hybrid threat can be visualized as the diverse and dynamic combination of regular armed forces, irregular forces such as insurgent organizations and/or guerrilla units, and/or affiliated and associated criminal elements all unified to achieve mutually benefitting effects. Other irregular forces can include mercenaries, corrupt officials of a governing authority, compromised commercial enterprises, public entities, active or covert supporters, and/or coerced and passive citizens of a populace.

Independent actors using terrorism can also exist in an OE distinct and separate from the agendas from other irregular forces. Adherents may have no direct connection with an irregular force but apply terror in support of an irregular force’s agenda. Threats can be as small as one individual or expand in size from a small and discrete band, cell, or unit to the noticeable presence as a large group of rogue actors that are affiliated or united in purpose.

Irregular forces adapt their capabilities in an agile and flexible manner to achieve organizational objectives. Terrorism is a means of conducting violent conflict that typically provides significant psychological impact on an intended target. Acts of terror may be actually intended for an audience other than the victims of an attack. Conducting terrorism typically emerges from a deliberate decisionmaking process. Terrorists usually compare and contrast advantages and disadvantages to evaluate probable cost- benefits of a particular act or acts of terror. When an irregular force terrorist self-justifies the legitimacy of using terrorism against an enemy, the terrorism often affects enemy combatants and noncombatants in a relevant population. The analysis and decision to use terror is often a simple cost-efficient and effective results-oriented means to pursue violent conflict in order to achieve a purpose.

Note. For the purpose of this TC, the term enemy refers to an enemy of the irregular force.

Motivations

Motivations often include a wide range of reasons that an individual, cell, unit, or other type of irregular force organization may feel compelled to use terrorism. Encouragement from outside an organization to use terrorism can be part of the conditions and circumstances that influence an irregular force to act. Support to use terrorism may be from regular military forces and/or special-purpose forces (SPF) from a state or states. Internal security forces and/or law enforcement organizations that have been infiltrated by an irregular force can also support irregular force actions within a local or regional area of responsibility. The collaboration among organizations, units, cells, and/or individuals may be based on coercion, contractual agreement, and/or temporary or long-term common goals and objectives.

Motivations for initiating and/or continuing acts of terrorism can include—

Spotlight attention on unresolved grievances with an enemy.
Disrupt an enemy’s ability to continue actions against an irregular force.
Champion causes of a suppressed and/or disenfranchised segment of a relevant population.
Demonstrate irregular force capabilities.
Obtain active and/or passive support from a relevant population.
Receive overt and/or covert support from a state or non-state actor.
Deter continued enemy military operations in a particular geographic area.
Dissuade enemy governmental influence over a relevant population.
Develop acceptance and legitimacy of an irregular force agenda and programs.
Cause an enemy to overreact to acts of terror and correspondingly alienate a relevant population.
Defeat enemy military and/or internal security forces and/or its governing institutions.
Achieve irregular force objectives.

Irregular force objectives promote solutions to grievances in the context of a particular relevant population. An irregular force may prefer to use indirect approaches such as subterfuge, deception, and non-lethal action to achieve its objectives, but is committed to violent action when necessary to compel an adversary, enemy, and/or other opposing form of governance to submit to the irregular force demands. In most cases, irregular force operations include politically oriented plans of action. Some irregular force organizations, such as affiliated criminal gangs, exist for their own commercial profit and power and are not interested in improving aspects such as quality of life and civil security of a relevant population that they affect.

Transforming a grievance into a concept and plan for action develops typically along a pattern that evolves from generalized ideas to tactical options and a heightened sense of needing resolution to a grievance. Continuous information and intelligence collection refines options for the likelihood of success and a decision to act. Motivation provides a momentum of commitment to actually conduct the terrorism. A way to visualize this human dimension sequence is a terrorism planning cycle.

Terrorism Planning and Action Cycle

A generic sequence and timing of irregular force terrorism depends on organizational capabilities and limitations, operational constraints, and the level of commitment of an irregular force actor or organization. To effectively understand this commitment, knowing the underlying motivation is fundamental to appreciating the resolve to plan and act. The irregular force sets conditions to optimize its awareness, training, and mission readiness to achieve objectives that counter enemy forces. When advantageous to irregular force operations, coordination and cooperation can combine the capabilities of conventional military, paramilitary, criminal activities, and/or terrorism.

Tactics, techniques, and procedures include creating conditions of instability in a particular OE, alienating the population from the governing authority of the region, and improving the irregular force influence on a designated populace and key leaders in that relevant population. In complex conditions, an irregular force may be able to employ a range of organizational options from small loosely affiliated cells to global networks in order to promote psychological effect and mission success. Such networks can be local, regional, international or transnational affiliations; host simple or sophisticated media affairs programs; as well as acquire covert and/or overt financial, political, military, or social support.

A terrorism planning cycle is actually a continuum. Irregular forces plan, prepare, act, and apply experience and skill in order to achieve objectives. The concept of a spiral effect may be an effective way to visualize and understand a planning cycle of terrorism. Even with periodic setbacks in acts of terror capabilities and execution, the resolve of terrorists to a compelling agenda is often progressive, adaptive, and long-term in order to achieve objectives.

Broad Target Selection

Irregular force terrorism operations are typically prepared to minimize risk and achieve the highest probability of success by avoiding an enemy’s strengths and concentrating attack on an enemy’s weaknesses. Emphasis is often placed on maximizing irregular force security and terrorism effects. Security measures usually include planning and operating with small numbers of irregular force members to more effectively compartment knowledge of a pending terrorism mission.

Collection against potential targets may continue for years before an operation is decided upon. Detailed planning is a norm but can be deliberately shortened when an opportunity arises. While some targets may be vulnerable enough with shorter periods of observation, the information gathering and analysis for intelligence will be intense. Operations planned or underway may be altered, delayed, or cancelled due to changes at the target or in local conditions. Tactical missions conducted by and/or for larger irregular forces complement operational objectives and strategic goals of the irregular force. The psychological impact on a targeted population is the overarching objective of any terrorist operation.

There is no universal model for planning, but irregular forces use their experience and expertise to effectively apply traditional principles for plans and operations. Irregular forces often exchange expertise in particular skill sets such as recruitment, media affairs, and training on various forms of direct action in terrorism. Tactical methods and analysis of successful missions are often shared via the Internet and websites hosted by an irregular force. Adaptability, innovation, improvisation, and risk assessment are key components of plans and actions toward mission success (see figure 6-2).

Figure 6-2. Terrorism planning and action cycle

Tactical and operational planning can be analyzed according to common requirements. A plans and operation cycle provides a baseline in assessing particular organizational requirements to conduct an act of terror. The significant differences among irregular forces often center on factors of intent and capability and the organizational, key leader, and individual commitment to a philosophical, ideological, or otherwise practical motivation and compulsion.

Irregular forces often pride themselves on being a learning organization. Combined with motivation and a compelling agenda, irregular forces gather information and intelligence, analyze their own and enemy strengths and weaknesses, determine enemy patterns, trends, and emerging actions susceptible to attack, and identify key vulnerabilities in an enemy’s systems, functions, and actions.

Consideration in selecting potential targets focuses directly to counter enemy governing authority or supporting force programs that demonstrate security, safety, and assurance to the relevant population that the irregular force needs to influence. Tactical operations that might counter an enemy through irregular force subversive or direct actions can include—

Secure a critical segment of a relevant population.
Declare the control and/or sovereignty of geographic areas that support the irregular force.
Disrupt military and/or internal security forces of an enemy.
Diminish the credibility of civil police and law enforcement activities.
Degrade a public sense of safety and stability from the enemy governing authority.
Discredit the political agenda of the enemy governing authority.
Demonize key leader actions of the enemy governing authority and civil administration.
Provide basic social services not being adequately provided by the enemy governing authority.

Initial Intelligence Gathering and Surveillance

Targets displaying significant vulnerabilities may receive additional attention and priority of effort for intelligence gathering and surveillance. This potential for successfully attack establishes a requirement to gather additional information on a target’s patterns over time. This phase may be very short or can span months and even years. The type of surveillance employed depends on the type of target and its location. Elements of information typically gathered include—

Assessing the practices, procedures, and/or routines of an organization and/or facility. Items of interest include scheduled product deliveries, work shift changes, identification procedures and other observable security routines. Examples are as simple as recording when regularly scheduled supply deliveries arrive or commodity pickup occurs, or where key leaders park personal vehicles.
Observing the physical layout and individual activities at residences and business offices of key leaders. Actions include knowing how the power grid services the location and critical points of failure if electrical power is to be interrupted during an attack.
Monitoring transportation routes of travel for targeted individuals for common routes, choke points, and limited visibility areas along routes that may be conducive for an attack. Personal patterns can include routes among a personal residence, temporary lodging, commercial site, gym, and/or school or university. Attention at facilities may include access and exit points, types of vehicles allowed on the facility property, and/or physical security barriers that must be bypassed or breached to enter a location.
Probing security measures to determine the complexity of security at a target and/or reaction time of security response units. Other items of interest can include any hardening of structures, barriers, or sensors; personnel, package, and vehicle screening procedures; and the type and frequency of emergency reaction drills at a facility.

Specific Target Selection

Selection of a target for actual tactical planning typically considers some of the following issues:

Does success affect a larger audience than the immediate victim(s)?
Will the target attract immediate high profile media attention beyond the immediate region?
Does attack success emphasize the desired grievance to the appropriate audience that can resolve the grievance?
Is the attack effect consistent with overarching objectives of the irregular force?
Does the target and mission success provide an advantage to the irregular force by demonstrating its organization’s capabilities?
What are the near-, mid- and long-term costs versus benefits of conducting the operation?

A decision to proceed requires continued intelligence collection against the selected target. Targets that do not receive immediate primary consideration may still be collected on for future opportunities.

Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning

Members of the unit or cell that will conduct the attack begin to appear during this phase. Trained intelligence and surveillance personnel or members supportive of the irregular force may be organized to prepare logistics and/or locations for the operation. Operatives gather detailed information on the target’s current patterns in recent days to weeks. The irregular force assesses and confirms information gathered from previous surveillance and reconnaissance activities.

The type of surveillance employed depends on the target’s activities. Current information is used to—

Conduct security studies.
Conduct detailed preparatory plans and operations.
Recruit specialized operatives and/or active supporters.
Procure a base of operations in the target area such as safe houses and caches.
Design and test escape routes.
Decide on types of weapons and other means of attack.

Rehearsal

Rehearsals improve the probability of success, confirm planning assumptions, and assess contingencies. Rehearsals test security reactions to particular attack profiles in primary and alternate plans of attack. Irregular forces use their own operatives and/or unsuspecting people to test target reactions. Typical rehearsals include—

Equipment and weapons operational checks.
Communications and signals to be used in the mission.
Skills performance of all and/or particular specialists.
Final preparatory checks.
Pre-operations inspection drills.
Deployment sequence of movements and maneuver into the target area.
Actions near and/or on the objective.
Primary and alternate escape routes.
Initial safe haven, hide sites, and/or rally point actions.
Transfer plans from initial to subsequent safe havens or hide sites.

Confirmation checks in the target area can include—

Target information gathered to date.
Target patterns of activities.
Physical layout of target area for changes in routes and/or manmade features.
Time-distance factors from the assault position to the attack point.
Security force presence during varied states of alert.
Reaction response timing by security forces to a demonstration, feint, and/or threat.
Ability to preposition and/or retrieve equipment or vehicles near the objective.
Ease of blocking and/or restricting an escape route at critical choke points.

Attack and Actions on the Objective

The irregular force executes its tactical plan but remains flexible to changing conditions and adapts accordingly. The plans and rehearsals have considered primary and contingency actions that possess the advantages of initiative and deception. Actions provide for—

Use of Surprise.
Choice of time, place, and conditions of attack.
Employment of diversions and supplemental attacks.
Support of security and related positions and/or forces to neutralize target reaction forces and security measures.

Simultaneous actions may include an assault element, security element, and support element. Some missions may require a breach element. Actions on the objective will sequence through several main tasks:

Isolate the objective site.
Gain access to the individual, individuals, and/or asset.
Control the target site.
Seize and/or destroy the individual, individuals, and/or asset at the objective.
Achieve the mission task.

Escape and Exploitation

Escape plans are well rehearsed and executed. Rapid withdrawal and dispersal from the target site can involve multiple withdrawal routes and temporary safe houses. Even in the case of a suicide attack, a handler or observer-recorder requires a plan to evade identification and capture. Similar expectation to evade capture occurs with an attack by fire element or support by fire element.

Media exploitation to a global audience will usually include video coverage, sometimes with audio commentary by observers with a videographer. Mass casualties or major disruption of economic and social services typically gain prime international media coverage. Extending the duration of an act of terrorism may promote awareness of an irregular force agenda and assist the irregular force in winning the “battle of the narrative” with a relevant population.

The irregular force attack must be actively publicized to achieve an intended effect of exploiting a successful attack. Media outlets influenced or coerced to support an irregular force agenda with prepared public statements are examples of preparation to effectively exploit irregular force operations. Release of warnings and/or announcements are timed to take advantage of media cycles for selected target audiences at the local, regional, and global levels of information warfare.

Unsuccessful operations are often disavowed by the irregular force when possible. The perception that an irregular force has failed can damage its prestige and indicate vulnerability.

In addition to the negative impact on the enemy, successful attacks can bring favorable attention, notoriety, and encourage support such as funding and recruiting to the irregular force. The proof that an attacker can attack and evade may sway potential recruits to join and/or convince recruits that have been coerced to approach assigned tasks with an expectation of success and survival.

The general concept of planning and action by irregular forces is adaptable. The seven concept phases are generally descriptive of tactics and techniques but are not prescriptive. Operations retain a flexible expectation based on evolving conditions. Knowing the underlying motivations for terrorism is fundamental to appreciating the resolve of irregular forces to plan and act.

When advantageous to irregular force operations, capabilities can include combinations of regular military forces, paramilitary units, insurgent organizations and guerrilla units, and criminal networks. Any and/or all of these groups can use terrorism. Regardless of an irregular force network as local, regional, international or transnational in capability, media exploitation using simple or sophisticated systems is critical to create the desired influence within a targeted population.

Terrorism Actions

Irregular forces apply terrorism for offensive and defensive purposes. Common tactical principles of armed conflict and INFOWAR apply capabilities with the intent to cause psychological anxiety and fear in an enemy in addition to physical effects. Adding aspects of surprise and deception to acts of terrorism often weakens resolve of a targeted relevant population. Nonetheless, each situation in an OE can present tactical variations and techniques to conduct a successful irregular force mission.

In applying a definition of tactics as an ordered arrangement and maneuver of forces in relation to an enemy to achieve a mission objective, an irregular force has a wide range of technique options in traditional or irregular conflict. Techniques describe methods used to conduct a tactic in order to accomplish required functions or tasks. Techniques evolve through the analysis of an intended mission and observations and/or lessons learned from successes and failures of previous missions. Procedures are standardized steps, performed deliberately and consistently, that prescribe how to perform specific tactical functions and tasks. The “how-to” of understanding terrorism is a composite of knowing TTP and the motivations that provoke and compel their use by irregular forces.

Incidents of terrorism can range the rogue action of a lone individual or the sanctioned activities of large organizations acting on the overt or covert policies of a state. Terrorism can also be sponsored or conducted by non-state actors. The following descriptions focus primarily on individual and small unit, cell, or group actions experienced as a sudden, violent engagement among friendly and enemy forces. These tactical engagements usually orient on offensive actions and terrorism but may also require irregular forces to transition temporarily to defensive forms of conflict.

The irregular force uses a flexible array of terrorism means and materiel to accomplish assigned missions. The irregular force makes decisions under conditions of uncertainty but continually seeks to minimize its risk and identify vulnerabilities in an enemy that can be attacked. Deception and surprise compound the effects of massing an attack against a point of weakness in order to achieve physical effects and create anxiety or fear. Understanding and applying these debilitating effects of coercion, anxiety, and/or fear is central to the intended physical and psychological effects of terrorism.

The irregular force is adaptive and learns from tactical success and failure and will adjust techniques to particular conditions in order to achieve an objective. TTP examples underscore the fact that the science of tactics is only as effective as the leadership, training, and experience of an irregular force unit, cell, or related organization. Elements such as demonstrated capabilities, weapon systems, location, restrictions and constraints, logistic support, and time-distance and weather and terrain factors are important to planning and conducting an irregular force action. However, the essential aspect of executing an irregular force act is the motivation and commitment of an irregular force in the individual and collective execution of tasks to achieve a mission objective.

Defensive Actions

Irregular force tactics can augment defensive actions with terrorism in order to—

Defeat an enemy attack.
Gain time.
Economize irregular force capabilities.
Develop conditions favorable for subsequent offensive operations.

Other objectives for conducting defensive actions related to terrorism include denying access to an area, causing extensive commitment of enemy forces and materiel, and/or fixing enemy forces for a specific time. Since acts of terrorism are typically sudden, violent acts similar to an assault, ambush, or raid, defensive actions often involve the delay or disruption of enemy response to the act of terrorism. An irregular force may attempt to deny access to designated terrain or a resource for a specific time, limit the freedom of maneuver to an enemy pursuit, or channel enemy forces into a killing zone for a subsequent assault or ambush. Defensive actions remain closely linked to offensive actions and terrorism.

Offensive Actions

An irregular force plans and acts decisively with deception and surprise as tactical enablers for terrorism. Creating overwhelming combat power against a specified objective requires an irregular force to have keen situational awareness and understanding of its AOR.

The shock effect of terrorism depends heavily on effective reconnaissance and surveillance in information gathering and intelligence analysis. The resulting awareness and understanding improves the ability to combine irregular force effects at a time and place for the optimum application of surprise and deception with available resources for an expectation of mission success.

Attack Threat on Land

Attacks using terrorism are often considered most likely during the normal conduct of lifestyles in familial, social, or commercial settings. Attacks often occur in the context of a local setting. Political perspectives can affect each of these daily domains and the willingness of people to be an active or passive supporter to an irregular force agenda.

An irregular force evaluates the situational context of its operational environment in order to determine the most effective ways to advance its objectives. The variables of a particular setting and the capabilities that exist for improvised or innovative actions by an irregular force can include physical domains beyond conflict on land or its sub-surface. Two other domains can be maritime and aerial environments in which to conduct irregular conflict.

Maritime Attack Threat

A maritime attack has the potential for significant disruption and/or damage on the economy of a governing authority and other international actors with which the irregular force is in conflict. An attack at a major port facility or a choke point on a main maritime route would cause significant regional disruption and negative impacts on a global economy.

If a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) was detonated at any of these locations, the immediate damage would be great to shipping and port facilities. However, a potentially even greater damage would be the economic repercussions on regional and global markets and commerce.

Aerial Attack Threat

An aerial terrorism threat can use multiple means to attack. Traditional forms include hijacking aircraft and hostage-taking, sabotage of aircraft and facilities, and/or using a manned civil or military aircraft as a suicide bomb against a designated target.

Another variation is use of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with an explosive payload to attack a target. Techniques can range from small hobby craft model airplanes with small ad hoc explosive packages to the acquisition and use of sophisticated cruise-type missiles with significantly larger warhead capabilities.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Irregular forces use a wide array of tactics and techniques to apply terrorism. The TTP are intended to be flexible and adaptive approaches. Surprise, secrecy, and indirect methods of attack are fundamental to acts of terror. The tactical options are as broad and diverse as the resolve of the irregular force leader to improvise and/or innovate with available resources.

The irregular force leader uses tactics, forces, and weapon systems tailored to a particular mission. Operations are planned for a specific target and effect and use reconnaissance and surveillance to plan, counter, and overmatch an enemy. If changes or unexpected conditions render success unlikely, the irregular force leader may cancel or postpone an operation and return at a more opportune time. He may choose a different target and continue his planning and attack process.

Extensive use of the Internet encourages exchange of practical information, training, and observations among terrorists. Training material, training videos, and on-line dialogues develop and sustain initiatives and encouragement among irregular forces. Shared information and intelligence continue to improve irregular force techniques as field experiences demonstrate degrees of effectiveness in employing acts of terror. Tactics, techniques, and procedures typical of irregular force actions and terrorism include—

Threat-Hoax.
Arson.
Sabotage.
Bombing.
Hijack-Seizure.
Kidnapping.
Hostage-taking.
Raid or ambush.
Assassination.
Weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Threat or Hoax

Irregular forces can use threats to coerce or preclude actions by a targeted individual or population. Threats and hoaxes can degrade the effectiveness of preventive or countermeasures when a targeted individual or population loses situational awareness of an actual terrorist threat or disperses finite assets against many possible threats. At the less lethal end of the conflict spectrum, hoaxes can simply be methods to annoy and/or degrade the alertness of security forces and keep the population constantly agitated. Bomb threats, leaving suspicious items in public places, and other ploys consume time, resources, and effort from an enemy and its security operations and contribute to general uncertainty and anxiety.

Extortion is an example of a threat that can obtain money, materiel, information, or support by force. For example, numerous reports from a region could indicate that warlords and militias are in contractual agreements with a governing authority to protect government and coalition supply convoys. However, these same warlords and/or militia in many cases are corrupt and extort large sums of money from the regional trucking contractors. Corrupt government officials or an activity that require bribes to retain business permits or easy route access further complicates actual or alleged threats and extortion. Another example of extortion can occur in the opium trade of a region with “taxes” levied on farmers, traffickers, and competing trafficking networks.

Intimidation is another form of extortion. An irregular force individual, intelligence cell or specialized team can intimidate people to obtain information on a target location or to provide resources. Death threats against an individual or his family may cause the individual to provide information or resources to a cell, unit, or organization with which he has no interest or allegiance. Intimidation can also be used as a means to convince individuals not to take an action. For example, security personnel may be intimidated to not implement required security measures during a specified period of time at a critical infrastructure facility.

The effects of coercing individuals can be significant while appearing irrational to some people. Nonetheless, irregular forces have successfully used these simple techniques to coerce individuals to participate in an attack that could include an individual suicide or vehicular borne suicide mission.

Arson

Arson is most often used for symbolic attacks and economic effects. Examples of attack by irregular forces can include—

Assaulting and setting fire to a temporary staging area for fuel tanker trucks.
Burning transportation infrastructure in order to disrupt the flow of logistics along a main supply route and a resulting requirement for reallocation of security forces to reinforce route protection.
Damaging communications nodes to disrupt cable or digital relay transmissions.

A number of arson attacks by small groups of armed extremists can hamper other ongoing governing authority operations and/or regional law enforcement responsibilities. Arson can be combined, directly or indirectly, with other forms of terror. An arson attack on residential areas or public facilities could injure or kill noncombatants and incite civil unrest.

Sabotage

Sabotage is the planned destruction of the enemy’s equipment or infrastructure. The purpose of sabotage is to inflict both psychological and physical damage. Sabotage can be an incident creating a large number of casualties or cause a severe disruption of services for a relevant population.

Destroying or disrupting key services or facilities displays irregular force capabilities on the public consciousness and either increases a target population’s frustration with the ineffectiveness of its governing authority or may inspire others in the population to resist along with the irregular force. Oil pipelines, water purification plants, sewage treatment facilities, air traffic control hubs, and/or medical treatment or research facilities are examples of potential sabotage targets. Sabotage and terrorism can also be demonstrated as a combination of techniques such as bombing, arson, cyber, or use of industrial materials and contaminates.

Bombing

Bombs are commonly used by irregular forces to conduct acts of terrorism. Bombs can be highly destructive and easily tailored to a mission, do not require the operator to be present, and have a significant physical and psychological impact (see figure 6-3).

The type of terrorism can employ varied explosive device —

Military-grade type-classified mines.
Military-grade or civilian engineer/construction explosives.
Commercial-industrial products adapted to create explosive components and/or devices as improvised explosive devices (IED).

Car bombs, commonly referred to as vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED), are used regularly in terrorism. Suicide vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIED) are a norm of some terrorists. In a contemporary tally of attack methods used by irregular forces, only armed attacks surpass the use of bombing.

Figure 6-3. Bombing: insurgent affiliate (example)

A technique used often by terrorists is an initial bomb detonation followed by secondary bomb detonations as first responders or other people arrive at the attack site. In recent years, bombs and in particular IEDs increased in lethality and adaptation of techniques used by terrorists. Some IEDs are bulky devices often made from artillery shells and detonated with simple electric triggers using garage door openers or doorbells. However, irregular forces also produce and use smaller lethal devices that can be planted quickly and can be detonated from longer distances with more sophisticated devices.

Another IED innovation is to use a device called an explosively formed projectile (EFP). The penetrating principle is common to shaped-charge munitions in order to outmatch armor protection. Although some technical skill and machining is required to obtain an optimum effect, a simple EFP is a section of pipe filled with explosives and capped by a shaped copper disk. When the explosive detonates, the EFP liner folds into a slug-like shape to penetrate armor plating of a vehicle. Emplacement of the EFP is factored to hit a most likely weak point for penetration. The angle of an EFP attack can be from below a target, along a side of a target, and can even be from above or at an extended height from a road or trail surface to attack wheeled or tracked vehicles.

A prevalent suicide tactic involves an individual wearing or carrying an explosive device to a target and then detonating the bomb or driving an explosive-laden vehicle to or into a target and then detonating the bomb. Suicide attacks differ in concept and execution from other high risk operations. In other high-risk missions, mission success does not require that the participant die. The plan allows for possible escape or survival of the terrorist or terrorists.

Some terrorists have used people who are unknowingly part of a suicide attack. An example is an individual associated with a terrorist cell who believes he is only a courier of information and materiel but is unknowingly transporting an IED in a vehicle that is command- detonated by an observer-handler against a selected target.

Another way of describing a suicide bomber is a highly effective precision-guided munition. Psychological impact increases when confronted by a person who plans to intentionally commit suicide in order to kill other people. Although a suicide bomber can be a lone terrorist working independently, the use of suicide terrorism as a tactic is normally the result of a conscious decision on the part of the leaders of an irregular force to engage in this form of attack.

Hijack-Seizure

Hijacking involves the forceful commandeering of a means of transportation such as an airplane, ship, train, or bus. Purposes for hijacking and terrorism can include—

Hostage-taking activities.
Obtaining a means of escape from a tactical area of responsibility.
Obtaining a means to conduct a suicide attack with a weapon of mass destruction.

While hijacking of aircraft for hostage taking has declined in frequency in recent times, the use of hijacked aircraft for escape or as a weapon continues to be a dangerous threat. The attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in September 2001 are tragic examples of hijacking commercial jet planes that are used for terrorism in a deliberate and multiple suicide attacks.

The use of hijacked vehicles for destructive devices is not restricted to aircraft. Trucks carrying explosive or flammable materials have been seized for use as weapon delivery devices. The possibility of such a technique could also apply to commercial transport ships carrying petroleum products such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). The damage or environmental contamination caused by an explosion of such carriers or other explosive commodities would be devastating. Accidental explosions of this nature are evidence of the catastrophic infrastructure damage that would be caused to ports and people.

Seizure of a critical element of infrastructure, similar to hostage-taking, can be a physical site such as a facility of critical importance to a relevant population or a cyber node that disrupts and/or prevents use of selected cyber functions. The terrorism threat of disruption or destruction of seized infrastructure can be a bargaining issue for an irregular force or could be the intentional seizure and use of infrastructure to contaminate and/or damage a geographic area.

Kidnapping

Kidnapping is usually an action taken against a prominent individual for a specific reason. However, kidnapping can be an indiscriminate act to cause anxiety in a relevant population. The most common reasons for kidnapping include—

Ransom.
Barter for release of a fellow irregular force member.
Desire to publicize a demand or issue with terrorism.

Success of kidnapping often relies on correctly assessing the impact to the governing authority in maintaining their prestige with a relevant population. A contrast is the possible reactions of the governing authority to demonstrate their resolve. Detailed planning considers contingencies of how to release the kidnap victim and/or how often to move the kidnap victim among safe houses. The irregular force typically states specific demands with a timeline for a response. Kidnapping can also be used as a means of financing the organization. Ransom from seized individuals or groups is often a significant income for irregular forces in several regions of the world. Irregular forces are often willing to hold a victim for significant time in order to have its demands satisfied (see figure 6-4).

Figure 6-4. Kidnapping: insurgent-criminal affiliation (example)

Some kidnapping operations are actually assassinations with killing the victim as a planned outcome. Actions include obtaining intermediate concessions and publicity during the negotiation process that the irregular force would not receive from a simple assassination. Irregular forces may distribute videotapes and/or photographs to the media and post similar exploitation means on Internet websites.

Hostage-taking

Hostage taking is typically an overt seizure of people to—

Gain publicity for a grievance.
Seek political attention and/or concessions.
Obtain safe passage for irregular forces contained by enemy forces during a mission.
Demand release of irregular force prisoners held by an enemy governing authority.
Ransom.

Unlike kidnapping where a prominent individual is normally taken and moved to an unknown location, the hostages can be individuals not well known in the enemy’s society. Hostage situations are frequently risky for irregular forces especially when conducted in enemy territory. This location exposes the irregular forces to hostile military or police operations and carries the possibility of mission failure and capture. Therefore, hostages may be held in a neutral or friendly area rather than in enemy territory. Irregular forces will sometimes take often hostages with the intent to kill them after they believe they have fully exploited the immediate tactical advantage and/or media coverage from the situation. However, some hostage situations are conducted to cause a direct confrontation with enemy forces and the resulting global media attention while negotiations are in progress (see figure 6-5).

Figure 6-5. Hostage-taking: guerrilla unit (example)

Raid or Ambush

A raid or ambush is similar in concept and can be used to accent anxiety in an enemy with its sudden and violent actions. A raid permits control of the target for the execution of some other action. The kidnapping or assassination of a target may require a raid to gain access and control a particular person or area for a brief period of time.

Some raids may not expect irregular force members to survive. Other raids may use raiders that volunteer to attack with the expectation of committing suicide as integral to the assault and/or to fight until killed in order cause the maximum amount of destruction and mayhem (see figure 6-6).

Figure 6-6. Raid: multiple insurgent suicide cell assaults (example)

An ambush is another form of surprise attack characterized by terror, violent execution, and speed of action. The intended objective may be to cause mass casualties, assassinate an individual, or disrupt enemy security and stability operations. Explosives, such as bombs and directional mines, are a common weapon used in ambushes as well as antitank rockets, automatic weapons, and/or other small arms fires.

Assassination

An assassination is a deliberate action to kill specific individuals. Targets for assassination are often individuals that have notoriety in a relevant population such as political leaders, well-known citizens, and/or public spokespersons. This form of terrorism can also target individuals with no public or governing authority importance and appear indiscriminate. This type of targeting for assassination can intimidate and cause anxiety and fear and coerce the passive support of a relevant population to an irregular force and preclude the active support to a governing authority with whom the irregular force is in conflict. Extensive target surveillance and reconnaissance of engagement areas is critical to planning and conducting an assassination. Although many factors play into the decision, the target’s vulnerabilities often determine the method of assassination.

Many targets of assassination are symbolic and are intended to have significant negative psychological impact on the enemy and the relevant population that it controls. For example, assassinating an enemy senior government official, a successful corporate leader, or a prominent cleric can demonstrate the inability of an enemy governing authority to protect its own people. Assassinating local representatives and/or leaders of a society can contribute to civil disorder while demoralizing members of a local governing authority and/or law enforcement organizations.

Technique Enablers

Techniques that take advantage of restrictions and constraints on an enemy operating within a relevant noncombatant population are a norm of irregular force actions. Limitations on an enemy can include social traditions, moral codes, and/or legal policies of a governing authority and its forces. Irregular forces can remain discrete and secretive within a population or can choose to be open in their operations when operating in or from a safe haven. In either case, irregular forces seek to create an environment of authority and relative protection in and from which to operate. Examples of these enablers include dispersion of the irregular force organization within a relevant population and/or the use of noncombatants of the population as human shields when confronting an enemy.

Actions by irregular forces demonstrate a tempo and/or pace based on the capabilities of the irregular force as it attempts to gradually or dramatically impact on its enemy. Attacks preferably employ surprise and deception with irregular force units, cells, or other organizations and also plan for the infiltration of insider threats to enemy activities and infrastructure. Several offensive action techniques that can easily compound a sense of anxiety, fear, and/or terror are use of suicide attacks, cyber attacks, and attacks with a weapon of mass destruction.

Disperse

Dispersion in complex rural and urban environments can degrade situational awareness and complicate enemy intelligence and targeting efforts. Urban areas offer excellent cover and concealment from enemy ground forces and airpower because building interiors and subterranean areas are hidden from airborne observation, and vertical obstructions hinder the line of sight to ground targets. Irregular force individuals, cells, units, or other organizations are often decentralized and purposely dispersed in locations. Similar cover and concealment in rural areas may be available in villages or natural terrain such as caves, tunnels, and/or every restrictive physical terrain.

Safe houses or sites facilitate irregular force ability to discreetly transit from one location to another by providing a place to rest, acquire resources, plan, prepare, and stage for acts. Active supporters in a relevant population and/or criminal organizations can facilitate such networks and trafficking from location to location in a local community and/or across regional and/or international borders.

Shield

Irregular forces can deliberately use noncombatants as human shields that limit enemy forces in using their weapons systems when noncombatants may be injured or killed. Noncombatants are sometimes prevented from evacuating likely engagement areas to ensure that irregular forces have human shields present in their immediate vicinity. These groupings can conceal movements and/or be a means of escape for an irregular force after executing an attack. Some irregular forces purposely use the elderly, women, and/or children as human shields. Activities to create selective areas of human shields can include—

Orchestrating work strikes.
Fomenting mass rallies.
Coordinating peaceful-appearing demonstrations.
Coercing civilians to gather with and around an irregular force action, security, and/or support element.

Types of withdrawal actions or repositioning through human shields causes terror for the noncombatants involved and may allow an irregular force to regain a tactical initiative and renew offensive actions. Asymmetric techniques take advantage of typical restrictions on enemy rules of engagement and often reduce enemy capabilities to apply their full suite of weapon systems against an irregular force. Some defensive tactics are to—

Disperse within a relevant population of noncombatants.
Use noncombatants as a human shield during armed conflict with an enemy.
Exploit positioning in close proximity to infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, or places of religious worship.
Conduct INFOWAR manipulation of actions when enemy forces cause noncombatant casualties in combating the irregular force.

Women and Children Combatants

Women and children cover a broad range of irregular force capabilities. Women and children can be involved in the direct actions of an assault, raid, or ambush and/or be critical to the security and/or logistics support to an irregular force.

Media reporting often spotlights the contributions of women in irregular force operations. In some instances irregular forces may encourage their front organizations to promote the visible presence of women and children in their public awareness efforts. In other instances, irregular forces will co-opt women and children to be suicide bombers in sensational incidents that receive much attention in media affairs.

Less obvious but often just as dangerous are other forms of direct combative and support activities. Women and children can serve a valuable role as couriers when cultural custom or civil restrictions in a region allow them easier ability to transit public areas without the level of detailed personal searches that a man would normally experience at checkpoints of a governing authority and/or its internal security forces and law enforcement organizations.

From other support perspectives, women can be key operators in the logistical systems of irregular forces. Personnel operations can involve the recruitment of new members with a maternal image and be an example of how a woman can obtain status within a social-cultural setting. Recruitment of women and children can range from selective invitation of individuals perceived to be receptive to an irregular force agenda to overt coercion and forceful levy for manning irregular forces in a local community. Alcoholic beverages and/or drugs can be used at times to dull the ability of children to resist assisting irregular force activities. Child fighters may be indoctrinated or coerced to conduct specific tasks and can be forced to act in irregular force operations with little or no training.

However, training of particular skills such a bomb making or other functional capabilities can support the transition of recruits to be fully integrated members in an irregular force. Women and men may be responsible for establishing and maintaining safe houses for irregular forces that may require a periodic sanctuary on short notice. Women and men may also be the overt presence in a facility used for maintaining kidnapped people, cached supplies, or medical treatment sites. Similarly, fund raising and the informal connections within a community can use women and children as a significant symbol of family value and need. When public expression of an irregular force agenda is allowable in a locale or region with recognition as a legitimate political party, women can be a spotlight for media affairs coordination and publicity. In some cases, women are elected political spokespersons for an irregular force agenda.

Women and children can be fighters with a weapon, couriers of money or munitions, shields to male fighters who engage an enemy with small arms fire, and/or other forms of support operations for an irregular force. Women and children in irregular conflict are a significant combat multiplier for an irregular force.

Safe Haven

Safe havens are typically located in ungoverned or physical areas where irregular forces are able to organize, plan, raise funds, communicate, recruit, train, transit, and operate in relative security because of inadequate governance capacity by a governing authority with whom an irregular force is in conflict. In some cases, safe havens are located in semi-autonomous areas within a sovereign state while in other cases an enclave across international borders. Distant locations from an irregular force AOR may be more acceptable to sustaining irregular force operations.

A safe haven is often used to train regional and/or foreign recruits and integrate them into the tactical and/or logistical support operations of an irregular force. An extension of some safe havens is use of cyber connectivity and the ability to mask or distort Internet irregular force cyber points of origin. Recruitment, training, and encouragement can be particularly effective with recurring communications and encouragement to irregular force members, affiliates, and/or adherents.

Insider Threat

An insider threat and intent to conduct acts of terror involve the infiltration by an irregular force member or members into an area and/or facility. The insider threat is a practical and psychological perspective that consumes significant enemy resources to counter such invasive actions.

The “insider” is an individual who is authorized access to open or secure systems of an enemy or supporting organization that can include physical facilities and infrastructure as well as information systems. In the context of irregular forces and terrorism, an insider can be a member of an irregular force and/or an adherent of an irregular force agenda. In either instance in context of command and control and/or information system operations and infrastructure, the insider threat can—

Disrupt general and/or specific operations of an enemy.
Deny enemy use of particular systems and data.
Corrupt or destroy selected information.
Cause malicious damage or destruction to a facility and/or other infrastructure.

An insider threat mission can be planned as a one-time breach of enemy security measures or be planned as a recurring, long-term covert investment to gather information and intelligence. An insider threat can be a willing participant with an irregular force or be coerced into supporting actions that support irregular forces. In addition to tasks on gathering specific information and/or intelligence on enemy operations and procedures, a complementary task may be to identify weaknesses in a particular enemy capability or function.

Irregular force accomplices may already exist within an objective area and be able to assist the entry and acceptance of additional irregular force members as an insider threat. Uniforms, security badges and/or identification cards, and/or purposeful lapses in physical security measures are examples of insider accomplice support. Once an insider threat is established in an assigned objective area, it may be directed to perform a number of tasks or be focused with a specific function. Tasks can include—

Remain discrete and report on current operations and personal observations in the objective area.
Plan for acts of sabotage on designated systems and/or equipment.
Attempt to subvert other actors in the objective area to support the irregular force.
Conduct sabotage as critical opportunities arise.
Support the actions of other insider threats of the irregular force.
Commit, on order, violent acts on a designated target.
Conduct a suicide attack on a designated target.

An insider threat or an irregular force observer in the objective area can sometimes capitalize on witnessing an incident that identifies individuals with a personal and/or ideological grievance and who has already been vetted for security clearance into an enemy’s organization and/or facility area. This type of individual may be gradually co-opted by an irregular force observer and recruited as an insider threat. On other occasions, a personal grievance may incite an individual to act violently even though there is no direct connection to an irregular force. The INFOWAR campaign of the irregular force will manipulate such incidents to support its agenda and often claim responsibility for the violent and/or terrorism actions.

Information Warfare

Irregular force information warfare can disrupt popular support for a governing authority and its allies and/or coalition partners. Irregular forces can spread rumors or misinformation as a means to offset the official information from a governing authority and its military and/or internal security forces.

Irregular forces can use the Internet to disseminate their message as quickly as events occur. An immediate press release from a Website offers irregular force control of initial message content and media reporting. Irregular forces manipulate images and create special effects or deception that enhances the anxiety and/or fear of terrorism. Audiovisual coverage of irregular force successes are incorporated in irregular force recruitment efforts and sustain morale. Multimedia sites can display manufactured evidence of governing authority atrocities and war crimes to turn domestic and international opinion against the governing authority. Irregular forces use sympathetic media to reinforce their INFOWAR campaign (see Appendix A).

Suicide Attack

Suicide attack can be the act of an individual or a tactic planned and conducted by an irregular force to spotlight a grievance with an intentional self-destruction and incidence of mass casualties, death, and mayhem. Mass media attention is often focused on an organization’s grievance when such a sensational action occurs. As a tactic, suicide attack seeks to degrade the resolve of a relevant population and obtain concessions from an enemy to an irregular force agenda. Organizational aims and ideological support to commit suicide in attacking an enemy is often complicated in motivations but is typically an action used when other more conventional means of combating an enemy are overmatched and produce nil results. A tactic of suicide attack can also be evaluated for an operational intent and/or strategy to obtain support for an irregular force agenda from state and non-state actors who might be otherwise unwilling to get involved in a social or political conflict of an irregular force.

In whatever means a suicide attacker uses, an irregular force member conducting such an act of terrorism has the ability to adjust actions until the moment of attack. This adaptive behavior makes a suicide attacker particularly dangerous. When the weapon is a suicide bomb, the moment to detonate a suicide vest or a vehicle borne improvised explosive device can be adjusted given conditions as they exist at a time and place of a planned attack. An attacker can estimate the degree of mayhem that will be caused by the explosion and change who and where to assault. In other instances, a handler of the suicide attack can command-detonate a bomb on a willing and/or unknowing individual carrying a bomb. The attack can be a deliberate assault on a specified target or can be intentionally an indiscriminate act to kill and/or main combatants and noncombatants. Suicide attack is primarily a psychological assault on an enemy and its supporters.

Cyber Attack

A cyber attack can be obvious or purposely masked to prevent an enemy from knowing a system has been or is about to be attacked. Cyberspace use can be a key enabler to commit espionage, subversion, and/or sabotage. From a terrorism perspective, cyber attack can create anxiety and fear in a targeted population or group of key leaders. An intrusion into a cyber system can be embedded with a time delay feature and/or be programmed to execute an action on order of a specific signal. Whether a cyber intrusion is from an external source or has been emplaced by an insider threat, the reasons for conducting terrorism with a cyber attack on an enemy can include―

Sabotage cyber networks.
Extort concession from an enemy.
Damage enemy or supporting activities and infrastructure.
Endanger people within a relevant population as part of an irregular force objective.
Support other threat capabilities with a greater probability of success in mission conduct.
Identify vulnerabilities in cyber systems and facilities.
Evaluate enemy TTP for the ability to limit or prevent particular cyber attacks.

Irregular forces can employ a broad range of technology to support cyber attacks. Cyber technology is readily available from commercial or illicit markets in order to conduct terrorism. The ability to exploit advanced or low-cost technology and integrate with basic TTP is limited only by the fiscal means and application skills of a terrorist. TTP can use a range of capabilities simultaneously to gather critical information for planning and conducting a future while a cyber attack is in progress. TTP of a very simple nature include―

Exploiting social media to collect information through false representation
Gathering open source information from Internet or intranet electronic postings.
Exploiting people through techniques such as phishing, spearphishing, or whaling expeditions.
Infiltrating malware to disrupt, damage, or destroy cyber systems.
Exfiltrating critical information from cyber systems that enables sabotage and other types of attack.

A model for planning and conducting cyber attack can be very sophisticated in attempt to breach layers of detection and protection. Other models can be quite simple in concept. A cyber attack model can include―

Reconnaissance to identify and select potential targets.
Weaponization of a computer operating system or software application.
Delivery of malware by remote or physical access to a targeted computer.
Exploitation by triggering a malware code in a targeted computer.
Installation that creates an access point on a victimized computer and allows unauthorized entry and exit on a victimized computer and network.
Command and control to send instructions to targeted computers previously installed with payload malware and provides the means to conduct a cyber attack.
Actions to accomplish the intended cyber attack objectives.

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Listing a category of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) acknowledges a broad range of capabilities that specific terrorist organizations, units, cells, and/or groups would like to acquire. WMD for an irregular force can be as simple in concept as several tons of improvised explosive from fertilizer and chemicals to acquisition of a sophisticated nuclear device from a rogue state and/or contract technicians. Fundamental information on using materials to construct types of WMD is available on the open-source Internet. Once skills are acquired and precursor or selected material and equipment are obtained by terrorists, the possibility exists to threaten use and/or actually employ WMD for catastrophic results.

The types of WMD are categorized generally as chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) materials. Sometimes WMD is described as nuclear, biological, and chemical weaponry. However, this is a limiting viewpoint on what can be used as a WMD.

Materials that are weaponized as WMD can include toxic industrial chemicals (TIC) and toxic industrial materials (TIM), biological agents, and/or radiological materiel. Low-yield and high-yield common explosives can also be configured to cause results considered a WMD. Although difficult to acquire by irregular forces, a nuclear demolition and/or bomb-like device is by its nature a weapon of mass destruction. Any of these weaponized materials can be a significant irregular force and/or terrorism capability.

WMD can be employed through numerous types of delivery systems. Once a dangerous biological agent is acquired, a simple means of employing the WMD can be letters contaminated with a biological agent being sent through a postal service to cause death and/or severe injury to those individuals who are contaminated. Additional impacts of such an attack are contamination and/or the potential contamination of facilities that the letters transited during the delivery process. Extensive decontamination requirements would disrupt or temporarily halt private and or commercial mail systems. The psychological impact on a relevant larger population would accent anxiety, fear, and frustration of how to prevent other similar attacks with a WMD (see figure 6-7).

Figure 6-7. Anthrax-laced letters: death-mayhem in targeted population (example)

The expertise to acquire and use WMD remains a significant terrorist threat based on some irregular forces intent to―

Acquire materials to construct or develop WMD.
Threaten to attack with WMD
Attack combatants and noncombatants indiscriminately with WMD.
Create mass injury, death, mayhem, and damage with WMD.

Terrorism Trends and Emergent Vectors

Trends of terrorism can be considered emergent variations and adaptation to age-old truths of conflict when at least two forces are unequally matched in military power. Terrorism is often indicative of a weaker force seeking vulnerabilities in a more powerful force and attacking those weaknesses with an expectation of persistent conflict. No accurate prediction exists on the character, location, or duration of any specific future terrorism; however, irregular force will continue to improvise, innovate, and adapt TTP to achieve success through acts of terror.

Situational accelerators can spotlight probable vectors of terrorism adaptation by irregular forces in near-term years. Uncertainties include the pace and/or tempo an irregular force can demonstrate in its tactical or operational reach, effects an irregular force can display throughout the strategic depth of an enemy, and how successful the “battle of the narrative” will be in influencing a targeted population. The resilience of motives and ideological commitment of an irregular force and its leaders remain primary strengths in an irregular force campaign of terror. Terrorism trends and emergent vectors that irregular forces consider include—

Improved situational awareness and understanding of the enemy.
Radicalized philosophy and/or ideology as a compelling motivation.
Adaptive organizational tactics and techniques.
Versatile organizational affiliations.
Expanded transnational affiliates.
Emergent independent adherents.
Devastating full spectrum weaponry.
Targeted economic disruption.
Globalized media affairs.

Improved Awareness and Understanding

Understanding situational context approaches the issue of irregular emergent vectors along an avenue of action used by irregulars, paramilitary, guerrillas, terrorists, insurgents, or criminals. Intent has a premise of adapting constantly to optimize knowledge, training, logistical support, and readiness to conduct irregular operations. Terrorism will be used when this type of action accomplishes the desired psychological and physical effects. Irregular forces can be patient. Irregular forces plan while waiting for critical opportunities to strike.

Irregular force vectors consider the nature of irregular forces and the capabilities and limitations of specific irregular forces in an evolving contemporary operational environment. As the regions of the world advance in technological areas, expand the mobility opportunities of people, and exploit the Internet and other media, extremists concurrently fuel grievances and alienate segments of populations to foster support for their agendas.

Irregular forces assess and plan for conducting operations in an area of responsibility and also consider how to attack forces and/or states that may exist in regions that are distant from a primary area of land, air, and/or maritime conflict. Cooperation and collaboration among extremist affiliates and/or adherents will plan for and attempt to attacks the homelands of those states that may be supporting a governing authority with whom the irregular force is in conflict. Irregular forces also assess and plan for attacking intermediate staging locations that would disrupt the flow or prevent significant support from these states.

Radicalized Motivations

Core grievances are real or perceived issues of segments in a targeted population. The importance of the core grievances or even their existence can change over time. Irregular forces can manipulate core grievances to create conditions for developing the willing support within a population. The perception of foreign exploitation or a governing authority that appears to be excessively influenced by foreigners can be a core grievance. For example, if foreign businesses dominate critical portions of the local economy, some of the population may feel that they or their country are being exploited by outsiders. A foreign military presence or military treaty may offend national sentiment as well. The mere presence or specific actions of foreigners may offend local religious or cultural sensibilities. A state or regional governance in an area can be a core grievance.

Extremists that are very conservative can be as revolutionary in intent as other groups that are considered very liberal. Intents may include replacing forms of legitimate government with varied types of authoritarian rule. Socialism or variants of communism and/or other forms of totalitarianism can exist in many forms. However, ideology can range the political variable from fascist or other totalitarian intentions to an opposite political perspective of anarchism. As regimes fail to demonstrate its value to a subjected population, a population may gradually and secretly plan and act for change. Religious fundamentalism or extremist viewpoints can become a core grievance. Pervasive and desperate poverty often fosters and fuels widespread public dissatisfaction in a relevant population. Young people without jobs or hope are ripe for recruitment into an irregular force. Lack of essential services in a population complicates an OE and its effective governance. Examples of these essential needs are availability of food and potable water, credible law enforcement, emergency services, electricity, shelter, health care, schools, transportation, and sanitation programs for trash and sewage. Stabilizing a relevant population requires meeting these basic social and civil needs. Frustration and a feeling of disenfranchised existence can sway a relevant population to support an irregular force that promises change and improved living conditions.

Adaptive Organizational Tactics and Techniques

In an era of sophisticated weapon systems and rapid international deployment of military forces, incidents demonstrate the effectiveness of simple tactics conducted efficiently by small irregular forces. Devastating attacks can be conducted by a small unit or cell of irregular force terrorists. Operating in two- or three-person teams, they could simultaneously attack separate locations. The terrorists would be armed primarily with small arms, hand grenades, and improvised explosive devices. The attacks and eventual destruction of the terrorists could extend to hours or days of horrifying murder and mayhem. A methodical containment and room-by-room clearance of historic and multi-story buildings in a large metropolitan complex would be covered by global media outlets throughout the incident. An irregular force conducts operations with the expectation of such publicity to spotlight its irregular force agenda and embarrass the governing authority that it defies.

Versatile Organizational Affiliations

Irregular forces will normally start as small entities with modest operational capabilities. As capabilities develop, plans may focus on acquiring improved capabilities across the functions of intelligence, logistics, communications, media affairs, and direct action. Building capacity in order to demonstrate commitment and capability is progressive. Temporary setbacks in plans and actions require flexibility to adjust timelines and adapt support networks. These networks can be as local as a neighborhood information- intelligence collection effort to a disciplined outreach for assistance from sources external to the immediate community or region.

Organizational versatility can include units or cells focused on acts of terrorism or other actions and organizations which are difficult to distinguish from civil crime. The increasing role of criminal activity in financing an agenda, either in partnership or competition with traditional criminal activities, can be a condition used by irregular forces. These enterprises include drug trafficking and human smuggling, fraud, tax evasion, counterfeiting, money laundering, and theft. Some activities are associated with terrorist’s evolving capabilities for false documents production and concealment of money transactions for their operational purposes.

Irregular forces and criminal organizations can be closely related for mutual benefits. Mega-cities are expanding in countries with poor services and weak governance. Bases and operations in rural and urban environments will increase where law enforcement is often ineffective and/or corrupt. Rampant unemployment and dissatisfaction creates a productive recruiting ground and operating environment for irregular forces promoting grievances acknowledged by large segments of the population. Many of these city areas have materiel, communication, and transport capacities for irregular forces to use, and a potentially huge base of sympathizers and recruits.

A development related to this is the emergence of regions where governments exercise marginal control of geographic areas within their sovereign territory. Control is imposed by sub-state actors that can span criminal organizations, militias, guerrillas, insurgents, and terrorists. Government forces confront violent and capable irregular forces that often resort to open coercion and terrorism of officials, police officers, military forces, their families, and the general citizenry. In addition to overt intimidation of a populace, irregular forces exploit the vulnerabilities of new technologies to attack and have a great deal of flexibility in their use of new technology. They have the advantage of only needing to attack or neutralize specific systems or capabilities, and can concentrate fiscal expenditures on specialized counter-technology to protect their criminal systems. Nonetheless, irregular forces can often neutralize advanced systems or capabilities through the use of simple and unconventional techniques such as a suicide bomber.

Expanded Transnational Affiliates

Transnational actions and terrorism presents a global challenge. Some irregular forces seek to conduct major operations that cause large scale, maximum casualty impact. Globalization removes the perceived security that national borders and geographic distance from adversaries and enemies once indicated. Commerce and finance is international, travel is international, and society in general is a much more international community. Operating beyond the organizational reach of an opponent can provide the physical space or fiscal and media affairs support to enhance an irregular force purpose.

Irregular forces can operate in and among this international reach and develop transnational capabilities through a loose affiliation of clandestine networks, inserted sleeper or active cells within geographic regions, and adaptability to constantly shift and change in organizational form. When extremist ideology is the primary motivation, the commitment is often absolutist with no allowance for compromise and seeks no negotiation. Violence signals a committed path to conditions with no restrictions by social norms, laws, or values. Actions such as terrorism are often becoming more networks based. Irregular forces can encourage loosely organized, self-financed organizational structures. The motivation of terrorists appears to be based increasingly on theological extremes and ideological absolutes. International or transnational cooperation among some terrorists provides an improved ability to recruit members, develop fiscal support and resources, gain skills training and expertise, transfer technology, and when desired, political advice.

Emergent Independent Adherents

The presence of varied irregular forces and/or possible independent actors that separate from an originating organization can easily blur in organizations claiming responsibility for terrorism incidents. These actors can be at the individual level or small cells acting on a specified agenda that may be similar but distinct from more well known irregular force organizations. Independent actors may purposely minimize or preclude public announcement of their plans and action in order to improve their cell security.

Independent adherents are adjusting their financial operations to be self-sustaining in their activities. This independence from any external control is a value to an irregular force as it gains the impact of diverse and separate adherent actions at no real cost to his own organizational base. The facility with which groups can obtain and move funds, procure secure bases, and obtain and transport weaponry determines their own operational abilities and the level of threat that they pose to a common enemy. The international nature of finance, the integration of global economies, and the presence of terrorist adherents in the illegal economies of slaves, drugs, smuggling, human trafficking, counterfeiting, identity theft, and fraud have aided an independence from traditional sources of state-linked sponsorship and other interconnected support.

Devastating Full Spectrum Weaponry

Weapon lethality can be assessed in many ways but efficiency and effectiveness are two general means to determine intent. Some weapons are quite simple and very deadly in effect. Lethality and overall effects are key considerations when assessed with types of action to obtain attention and reaction. The trauma of violent deaths as well as mass injuries and damage on a targeted population can be critical to the psychological effect and consequent actions or inaction by the affected population. Terrorism will continue to seek forms of indiscriminate violence. Acts of terror can also be targeted to specific people, groups, or capabilities. Terrorism is merging and combining with various other state and sub-state actors, further blurring the difference between criminals, rogue governments, and terrorists.

Ongoing conflicts display that terrorism attacks account for only a small fraction of civil violence but the high-profile nature of many terrorist operations can have a disproportionate negative impact. Conditions and changing dynamics in conflict can create a perception in a relevant population of unchecked violence and fear. Such perception can harden differing opinions, empower militias and vigilante groups, increase a middle-class exodus from a region, and disrupt confidence in a governing authority and its security forces. Terrorism plays a key role in much of this physical and psychological violence.

The means to cause mass casualties can be a highly sophisticated weapon system such as a weaponized military-grade nuclear device. However, mass destruction can also be caused by an improvised low-yield explosive weapon such as the 2001 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York City and the Pentagon. While purposeful mass casualty incidents may have appeared to be extraordinary events several decades ago, contemporary acts of terror surpass these former acts and demonstrate a profound impact on populations at the local, regional, national, and international levels. Emergent actions indicate that terrorism previously centralized and controlled by formal networks and organizations, is being conducted increasingly by loosely affiliated terrorists or groups that may generally identify themselves with an ideology or special purpose agenda. The threat can be foreign and domestic.

Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is a particularly alarming issue. The projected effects amplify the danger and fear of a catastrophic attack. Some of these materials that could be used to construct some form of WMD are easily accessible in the public domain. Other potential capabilities are quite problematic to weaponizing materiel. The knowledge and technological means of specialists to produce WMD is a shadowy area of science, crime, and intrigue available to some terrorists.

The trend to exploit available simple and sophisticated technologies and the desire to cause mass casualties could be demonstrated in irregular force attacks that employ WMD such as—

Chemical [sarin nerve agent] attacks in a metropolitan subway system.
Biological [anthrax] attacks using contaminated letters in postal system.
Low-yield explosive aerial bomb as in nearly simultaneous suicide attacks with large commercial jet aircraft into critical infrastructure.
Low-yield explosive vehicular bomb as in a vehicle borne improvised explosive device attack on a Federal governing authority building and commercial business locale.
Radioactive material placed in a public location for area contamination.
Nuclear weapon detonation in a controlled environment as a demonstration of capability.

Targeted Economic Disruption

Modern, high-technology societies are susceptible to a concept of complex terrorism. Dependence on electronic networks in modern infrastructure, sometimes with questionable redundancy in systems, and concentrating critical assets in small geographic locales can present lucrative targets for the irregular force. Some emerging irregular forces wield effective power in failing states and view terrorism as an effective mode of conflict.

Critical infrastructure and support systems provide terrorists with a wide array of potential targets in land, maritime, cyber, and space environments that would directly affect economies on a regional and global scale. Common vulnerabilities may focus on oil refinery operations and overland and/or maritime shipment of oil products. Infrastructure for oil production has critical aspects in key areas of the world. Single points of failure in the infrastructure or denying critical services for a period of time could severely disrupt world economies.

Globalized Media Affairs

Exploiting mass media considers the value of effectively marketing an irregular force message through a nearly simultaneous global information environment. An overarching principle is to create and maintain international attention and impact. To gain international awareness and attention to grievances and issues, incidents must often be spectacular to attract mass media coverage. Effectiveness of INFOWAR will be measured by its ability to cause a dramatic impact of fear and uncertainty in a target population. Surprise and sustained violence may be normal against specified people representing elements of civil or military control and order of a governing authority with whom irregular forces are in conflict. Common citizens may also be targets in a culture of violence. Damage or destruction of community, regional, or national infrastructure and governance will be used to gain attention, provoke excessive reaction by host nation or coalition military forces, and attempt to alienate general population support of a governing authority.

Irregular force operations consider a desired media effect and plan for verbal or visual reporting coverage. Supporting events and interviews reinforce the desired message. These messages may present disinformation and false perspectives. Frequently, military reluctance to comment on ongoing operations in the media for operational security reasons can assist the irregular force. If no balanced information comes from official sources in a timely manner, the media may use the information readily available from the irregular force or a terrorist cell as a primary source for reporting an incident.

Future armed conflicts are more likely to be fought “among the people” rather than “around the people.” Conflict in urban areas and populated locales is inevitable. Much of the world’s population is already located in urban terrain. In the next two decades, estimates pose five billion of the world’s eight billion people will live in cities. Many of the population hubs will be along coastlines throughout the world’s regions. Irregular forces will attempt to blend into concentrated populations in order to marginalize detection of their recruiting, training, and staging initiatives; obtain support within a coerced or passive populace, and act at times and locations of their own selection. Media attention to a major incident will be immediate in coverage.

Rural areas and their inhabitants, depending on conditions in particular regions, will complement operations in urban centers. Irregular forces will evolve hybrid capacity of selective conventional military, paramilitary, and criminal organization capabilities. Rural irregular forces will operate in regions providing cover and concealment such as heavily forested or mountainous areas that hinder some forms of detection and interdiction. Notwithstanding, a rural orientation must lead back to urban centers as a presence and connection to the main population masses and the political infrastructure of governing authorities with whom irregular forces are in conflict.

The Specter of Terrorism

The specter of irregular forces using terrorism on a society illustrates the value that such acts can provide to an irregular force that is often incapable of directly confronting an enemy with overwhelming combat power. The key factors of a successful campaign of irregular force terrorism will continue to be the long-term resolve and resilience of terrorists to continue the conflict until their aims are achieved.

The dedicated irregular force using terrorism must be adaptive and flexible to the periodic success of an enemy. When terrorism is disrupted with key irregular force leaders killed or captured, and functional capabilities are degraded or destroyed, other irregular force members, affiliates, and/or adherents are prepared to continue the struggle against a declared enemy.

A relevant population is a critical qualifying environment of nearly all irregular conflict. Irregular forces decentralize, network, and operate among a relevant population to overcome technological advantages of an enemy. The resilience of an irregular force and the expected debilitating effects of terrorism on an enemy require a determined long-term commitment from irregular force leaders to defeat an enemy. The massing of effects over time often requires a patient and decentralized approach to irregular conflict. The irregular force maintains a keen sense of cultural awareness and social understanding to establish a rationale for terror that is tolerated to a relevant population. The irregular force must obtain and sustain the passive and/or active support of the relevant population within which it operates.

An INFOWAR campaign must promote a resilient irregular force message of purpose and commitment to a relevant population. The objective of terrorism in support of an irregular force agenda must be recognized by a relevant population as a compelling outcome worth the amount of suffering and social disruption that terrorism and other acts by an irregular force may cause. Whether the ultimate aims of an irregular force are ideological, philosophical, and/or practical, terrorism will continue to be a vexing factor in future conflicts among and between state and non-state actors throughout the world.