Africa
| DATE Africa | |
|---|---|
| Official languages |
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| Ethnic groups |
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| Religion |
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| Demonym | Arianian |
| Time zone | EAT(+3) |
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Contents
Countries in the DATE Africa Operational Environment
Republic of Amari
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Republic of Ziwa
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Republic of Kujenga
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Democratic Republic of Nyumba
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Strategic Positioning
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Views of the US
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Regional PMESII-PT Overview
Political
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Military
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Economic
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Social
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Information
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Infrastructure
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Physical Environment
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Time
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Variable Conditions Overview by Country OE
| Amari | Ziwa | Kujenga | Nyumba | |
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| Politics | Big thought goes here
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| Military | Big thought goes here
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| Economic | Big thought goes here
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| Social | Big thought goes here
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| Information | Big thought goes here
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| Infrastructure | Big thought goes here
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| Physical Environment | Big thought goes here
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| Time | Big thought goes here
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WORKING HERE
Strategic Positions
Actors
The US gives increased geopolitical attention to the countries of the Caucasus region (Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria) because of their strategic location that connects Europe to Asia, their hydrocarbon resources, and their key position along this main route for the westward export of Caspian Sea energy resources. Ethno-political conflict that has plagued the Caucasus region for thousands of years led to the death of thousands and material destruction, contributing significantly to political instability, economic hardship, and increased organized crime. Failure to resolve these long-term conflicts continues to keep the region from creating a durable peace and efficient, accountable national governments. Many regional issues will require inter-state cooperation for any significant progress to occur. Other issues besides basic security include natural resource development, water protection, conservation and management, trade and transit, disease prevention, and drug trafficking. Many issues cannot simply be solved on a national basis—no matter how committed a government remains to reform and overall economic development.
Security Strategies
Each country in the region has different threat perceptions formed by its ethno-political situation and religious fervor. Limaria perceives threats from Atropia and looks to Donovia for security. Atropia perceives threats from Ariana, Limaria, and Donovia and looks to the West for support. Gorgas, which mainly sees threats from Donovia and its internal Donovian population, looks to the West for protection. Ariana sees “Western influence” as the threat to its culture and bases all decisions on that belief. Donovia is adversarial towards Atropia and continues to inject itself into Gorgas’ internal affairs. The Caucasus region countries all seek relationships with outside governments that often prove contradictory. Cooperation continues to deteriorate since the elimination of major Donovian influence impacted the region’s standard of living. This inability to cooperate with neighbors has stymied efforts to tackle regional issues such as drug trafficking. Restrictive tariffs, quantitative controls, and closed crossing points disrupt trade and transit for bothgoods and people within the Caucasus. While the countries all recognize the importance of regional cooperation on key issues, prospects for cooperation remain dim as ethno-political tensions lead to acute regional conflict.
Potential Conflict Flashpoints
All major players within and bordering the Caucasus region maintain multiple significant strategic interests in conflict with those of their neighbors. Divided by religious and ethnic hatreds hundreds of years old, the Caucasus represents one of the major spots of “frozen conflict” in the world—a critical one that sits astride a major global source for oil and natural gas. The Caucasus countries of Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria find themselves interconnected by ties of conflict unlikely to abate in the near future.
In the Caspian Sea, Ariana and Atropia maintain claims to offshore oil and gas fields that conflict with each other. Atropia also has a chilly relationship with Limaria over the Lower Janga region. Atropia attempts to sustain cordial relations with Donovia, though the country finds itself dependent on Gorgan pipelines to export oil and gas. Limaria generally remains isolated from its Atropian and Kalarian neighbors, but remains integrated with Donovia and pursues deeper ties with Ariana. Donovia and Ariana attempt to assert their traditional power in the region, while the other independent states seek to preserve their own political identities and economic viability.
Potential conflict flashpoints include:
- Atropian blockade of goods and electricity to Limaria: Limaria remains dependent on Gorgas (despite a limited embargo) and Ariana—an international pariah—for access to much of its imports and power.
- Lower Janga (current ceasefire): Localized violence routinely disrupts the ceasefire agreement.
- South Ostremek (current ceasefire): The ceasefire simply stabilized the conflict lines, as the Donovians want to politically pry Gorgas away from EU or NATO membership, or even close cooperation with the Western world. Gorgas definitely seeks a return to its pre-war territorial boundaries.
- Zabzimek (current ceasefire): Like South Ostremek, Gorgas prefers a return to the pre- war status quo and boundaries, while Donovia wants to further isolate Gorgas from its Atropian and Western allies.
- Archeological sites and religious shrines in Ariana: Ariana controls significant Shia religious sites where many Muslims conduct pilgrimages for religious purposes.
- Transnational pipeline operations: The export of crude oil and natural gas to the world remains a significant challenge for Ariana and Atropia. Oil producers possess several pipeline projects that diversify their export options, but pipelines remain vulnerable to interdiction.
- Caspian Sea oil and natural gas reserves: The demarcation of Caspian Sea deposits remains a source of contention. Oil and gas fields are the lifeblood of the countries that possess them, and their exact demarcation leads to contentious arguments over the boundaries.
- Arianian nuclear program: The Arianian government’s desire to maintain a robust weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program causes strife with nearly all its neighbors, as the relative power of a WMD-armed Ariana complicates the delicate balance of power that currently exists in the region.
The Caucasus remains an area with dynamic and continuous conflict. Any conflict, especially one that threatens oil and gas production or export, will likely involve outside powers, including the US. The Caucasus also is in a relatively inaccessible spot for US forces due to the geographic realities of airspace and sea lines of communications.
Threat Actor Chart
| Threat Actor | Organization Type | OE | Activities | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salasyl | Insurgent | Southeast Atropia with nation-wide capabilities | Possible ties to transnational criminal and terrorist actors. Has engaged the Atropian regime in a lowlevel insurgency for the past 20 years. Promotes violent populace opposition to state taxation policies, unreliable public services, substandard medical preventive services, inaccessible state education programs for working class citizens, and a judicial system that illegally favors the ruling political party. Salasyl and South Atropian People's Army (SAPA) insurgents often clash violently over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools. | Atropian government facilities and leaders |
| South Atropian People's Army (SAPA) | Insurgent | Focuses on eight provinces in the south with cultural ties to Ariana | Primary goal is to create a separate country composed of southern Atropia and Ariana's northwestern provinces. Receives most of its training, equipment, and supplies from Ariana. SAPA and Salasyl insurgents often clash violently over ideology, limited resources, and similar recruiting pools. | Atropian government facilities and leaders |
| Bilasuvar Freedom Brigade (BFB) | Insurgent | Northern Vetlia and Erdabil Provinces | Donovia supports the BFB, creating political tension between Donovia and Atropia. | Atropian government facilities and leaders |
| Provisional Army of Lezgin (PAL) | Insurgent | Southern Erdabil and Western Sirvaki Provinces | Small insurgent group with limited regional activities. | Atropian government facilities and leaders |
| Bocyowicz Crime Family | Criminal | Ungoverned Territories | Acquires political power in poorly-governed regions, eventually gaining control of geographic space. These political actions are intended to provide security and freedom of movement for the criminal organization's activities. As a result, the third-generation criminal organization and its leadership challenge the legitimate state authority. | Atropian police and security forces |
| Atropian Organized Crime (AOC) | Criminal | Baku | The growth of illegal narcotics, smuggling, and even human trafficking conducted outside of established channels only began recently. Many of those involved in Atropian illegal activities live in communities of displaced Atropians from Lower Janga and persons who fled Donovia. Atropia serves as a transit point for narcotics travelling to Donovia and Western countries. | Police and security forces |
| Al Iksir Cartel | Criminal | Northern Atropia and Southern Donovia | The growth of illegal narcotics, smuggling, and even human trafficking conducted outside of established channels only began recently. Many of those involved in Atropian illegal activities live in communities of displaced Atropians from Lower Janga and persons who fled Donovia. Atropia serves as a transit point for narcotics travelling to Donovia and Western countries. | Police and security forces |
Events
What follows are tables of 77 fictional events set in the year 2016 in various areas throughout the countries of Ariana, Atropia, Donovia, Gorgas, and Limaria, in the Caucasus region. These events demonstrate possible ways the conditions of the OE described in Section 2 might play out on the ground. Each event is tied to the mission essential task list (METL) to clearly show the tactical-level connection between the event, its related activities, and possible OE variable conditions.
Analysts derived these events from realistic yet fictional potential activities that could easily take place in any of the countries in the Caucasus region. Many of the events could apply to more than one country within the region. Additionally, the events collectively have effects for all variables in the OE: political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time.
Each event is listed at the top of the table, with three to four potential related activities, and their likely OE variable conditions, following. The bottom of each table lists the linked METL tasks. The chart was designed to be clear, yet thorough. Events were analyzed to ensure that the details of each variable in Section 2 supported the possibility of the event, and that each event required a tactical intervention, making it useful to units in training.