Economic: Atropia

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The Caucasus countries that possess hydrocarbon resources will continue to depend on the oil and gas industries to drive their economies, while those that do not possess such resources will attempt to tie themselves to hydrocarbon-rich nations. Both Ariana and Atropia face geopolitical difficulties in exporting their oil and natural gas. Bordered by adversaries, the Arianians and Atropians must rely on tenuous routes to export their resources. For Gorgas and Limaria, which lack extractive or mature industries, transshipment of hydrocarbon products or providing other services to oil-wealthy countries will be their primary short- to medium-term means to achieve economic development. Donovia continues to recover from a collapse two decades ago that crippled its economy. All nations of the Caucasus have relatively high inefficiency due to corruption, government involvement in the economy, and/or lack of export industry development.

Atropia’s oil and natural gas resources generate most of the country’s wealth. Since it began to actively exploit oil reserves 15 years ago through international oil consortiums, the country has experienced strong GDP growth. Atropia launched a deliberate program to develop its own natural resources. This hydrocarbon-specific economic policy continues to bring big dividends for Atropia’s economy. Additionally, it bolstered Atropia’s quest to become a regional player and to secure its sovereignty and integrity from encroachment by Donovia and Ariana. The growth in its economy also benefitted Atropia’s security as it became an integral player in the world energy sector, especially in supplying Western Europe. President Salam Ismailov, son of the previous President Hazi Ismailov, sits at the top of the pyramidal patronage system that flows through all aspects of Atropian bureaucracy and economy. Salam Ismailov directs the state oil and natural gas systems, which are the two biggest revenue producers in the Atropian economy. Despite all the hydrocarbon revenue in the country the economy is not balanced between sectors, with large portions of the population working in small service or agriculture industries. Atropia also lacks a significant middle class.

Table of Economic Data

Measure	Data	Remarks
Nominal GDP	$85.77 billion	Agriculture 5.5%, Industry 61.4%, Services 33.1%
Real GDP Growth Rate	-3.1%	5 year average 9.1%
Labor Force	4.4 million	Agriculture 38.3%, Industry 12.1%, Services 49.6%
Unemployment Rate	6.0%
Poverty Rate	11.4%	% of population living below the international poverty line
Net Foreign Direct Investment	$15.18 billion	No outbound FDI
Budget	$12.85 billion revenue $16.77 billion expenditures
Public Debt	5.1% of GDP	Very low
Inflation	1.5%	Very low; 5 year average 7.6%

Participation in the Global Financial System

Over the past decade, the Caucasus nations made considerable efforts to integrate themselves into the global financial system. While focused on local conflicts, the Caucasus region opened to other countries to increase global markets for its products, especially petroleum, and looked to the West for economic developmental aid, usually in the form of loans and grants.

World Bank/International Development Aid

The World Bank funds a variety of development programs in Atropia, mostly focused on the large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) generated by its three-year war with Limaria. Additional resources attempt to slowly integrate minority, non-Atropian populations located in the country’s north into Atropian society and economic life. Other programs in Atropia focus on infrastructure development and other public service/public use sectors such as health care.

Foreign Direct Investment

As a part of its modernization programs, Atropia welcomes international investment as an important facet of its money supply. This openness began 18 years ago when Atropia encouraged the development of production-sharing agreements (PSAs) that focused on the oil and gas development industries. Atropian International Oil (AIO) is a consortium of nine petroleum countries, including British Petroleum, Chevron, Devon Energy, StatoilHydro, Amerada Hess, ExxonMobil, Inpex, Itochu, and the Atropian National Oil Company (ANOC). British Petroleum participates in AIO as the largest foreign investor.

Most foreign investment in Atropia focuses on the extraction and transportation of crude oil and natural gas. Initially, foreign investment centered on oil extraction from the Kimaz oilfields, Atropia’s largest, located 62 miles east of Baku in the Caspian Sea. The Kimaz oilfields presently account for over 80% of Atropia’s total output. Later foreign investment focused on the Trans-Caucasus petroleum (TC-P) pipeline that originates in Baku and transports crude oil out of the country via Gorgas, for transshipment to Western Europe. The TC-P pipeline serves as the primary oil export transportation method for Atropia. Natural gas exploitation also garners much PSA attention, although development of this energy sector lags behind the oil industry. Outside of the energy market, foreign investment in Atropia remains quite limited.

Economic Activity

Economic Actors

Government-related entities serve as the main economic actors in Atropia, with President Salam Ismailov at not only the political controls but the economic controls as well. This control is manifest through patronage and favors granted to the economic elite. ANOC operates as the most important company in Atropian economic life. ANOC is a state-owned oil company that administers all issues related to the Atropian hydrocarbon industry. ANOC’s subsidiaries, Atropigaz and Atropineft, operate the Atropian natural gas production and distribution networks. Atropigaz operations encompass domestic supply processing, transport, and storage, while Atropineft controls exploration and production of the older gas wells.

Informal agreements and patronage among the Atropian societal elite drive the country’s economic system. The larger the economic venture, the more important the person who helps the venture to succeed. While some may define this activity as corruption or illegal activity, the Atropians do not perform it to undermine the societal order but see it as a necessary part of the system. While this semi-illegal activity may or may not hamper the bureaucracy’s efficiency or act as a means to circumvent the legal system, the patronage system in Atropia exists nonetheless.

Trade

Hydrocarbon products dominate Atropian trade and account for 96.7% of it. Atropia’s top export markets include Italy, Donovia, Israel, and Gorgas, and its top sources of imports are Donovia, Germany, and the UK. While exports dramatically increased due to hydrocarbon exports, imports grew at a much more measured and steady rate. Non-fuel exports consist of food items and cotton. Imports consist of more complex manufactured items such as machinery, chemicals, and food.

State-owned enterprises control Atropia’s heavy industries, and these companies oversee trade contracts and agreements. ANOC controls the Atropian oil trade and Atropigaz, an ANOC subsidiary, manages natural gas exports. Foreign participation remains an important part of oil and natural gas field development agreements. Although foreign companies, especially British Petroleum, often enjoy the largest share of the enterprises, ANOC remains the owner of the assets.

Commercial Trade

Commercial trade in Atropia revolves around the oil and gas industries, which are the dominant elements of the national economy. The state oil monopoly generates the lion’s share of commercial activity that drives Atropia’s commercial trade.

Military Exports/Imports

Atropia imports its military equipment and hardware primarily from Donovia, Israel, and the US. While the Atropian military equipped much of its forces with decades-old Donovian equipment, the country has purchased more recent equipment, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), from abroad.

Economic Diversity

The Atropian economy demonstrates a contradiction of sorts, as the hydrocarbon industry employs only about 12% of the population but accounts for 60.5% of the country’s GDP. Over 38% of the population works in the agricultural industry. The service sector employs almost 50% of the population and produces 33% of the GDP. Due to this economic imbalance, a large gap exists in Atropian society between the wealthy and the lower class. Approximately 11% of Atropians live at or below the poverty line.

Energy Sector

Oil and natural gas drive the Atropian economy, both domestically and internationally. Despite employing a smaller share of the Atropian population than agriculture or services, the hydrocarbon industry brings in the vast majority of the country’s wealth. Hydrocarbon exports account for 96.7% of total Atropian exports, and will likely continue to do so indefinitely.

Oil

ANOC deals with all matters related to the acquisition, refining, and transportation of petroleum in the country. The Ministry of Industry and Energy directs exploration and production agreements but ANOC always participates in these arrangements, particularly when they involve international investors and development projects such as the TC-P pipeline or the Kimaz offshore fields.

Since Atropia brought in foreign investment and development to its oil industry, the country’s production continues to rise. Only three years ago, oil production leaped to 228,000 bbl/d after the development of the Vapenaz portion of the oilfields. The development of the Kimaz fields played a key role in this rise, and last year the Kimaz fields accounted for 82% of Atropia’s total oil production.

Development of the oilfields continues, with five operational platforms offshore in the Caspian Sea and another one under construction. With the completion of this platform (part of the Fransaz Oil Project), Atropia expects output to reach over one million bbl/d when it comes online next year. British Petroleum, the leader of AIO, expects that the new development will extend the output to one million bbl/d for a six-year period. In addition, Atropia possesses extensive land-based oil and gas reserves in the northeast that have yet to be developed.

Atropian oil exports continue to rise alongside increased oil resourcing. Recent exports reached 749,000 bbl/d, more than double the figure from three years ago. ANOC ships most oil via pipeline, but small amounts travel by railway or truck. The 1,110-mile TC-P pipeline, with its terminus, serves as the major ANOC pipeline. Western Europe constitutes the majority of the market for the crude—especially Italy, which uses 40% of Atropian export oil.

A second major pipeline that originates in Atropia is the North Caucasus petroleum (NC-P) pipeline, which travels 830 miles from Baku to Novorossiysk, Donovia, on the Black Sea. This pipeline can operate at 100,000 bbl/d, but currently operates at one-third capacity. The flow through the NC-P pipeline will increase as development continues on the Kimaz fields as more oil enters Atropia. ANOC operates the Atropian portion of the pipeline while the Donovian firm Vianeft operates the Donovian portion.

ANOC operates a third pipeline, the Caspian & Black Seas petroleum (CBS-P) pipeline, from Baku to Supsa, Gorgas, on the Black Sea. The pipeline can transport 145,000 bbl/d, but operates at a much lower level. The pipeline closed five years ago for repairs, and the Donovia-Gorgas conflict two years later delayed its reopening by three months. ExxonMobil, which is a part of the AIO consortium to develop the Kimaz oil fields but not part of the TC-P consortium, uses this pipeline to export its oil.

Atropia possesses two oil refineries to produce gasoline and other oil products for the domestic market. The Baku refinery can process 239,000 bbl/d per day, and the Nye Baku refinery has a maximum capacity of 160,000 bbl/d.

Natural Gas

Natural gas continues to play an increasingly important role in the Atropian economy, with the exploitation of the Caspian Sea Pasha Sarak gas field as the most important element of this industry. The 330-square-mile field remains a point of contention with Ariana, which believes that it owns a larger share of the field. Atropia transports the natural gas via the Trans-Caucasus natural gas (TC-G) pipeline, which runs parallel to the TC-P pipeline.

Agriculture

Atropia possesses significant fertile land for the purposes of agriculture, although the majority of farmers produce crops for their own subsistence or domestic consumption. Large-scale privatization 10-20 years ago from state to private ownership reversed the previous downward trend in output. The fishing industry, however, suffers from high levels of pollution in Atropian rivers and the Caspian Sea. Atropia possesses a nascent food-processing industry, but the industry needs significant levels of modern technology, new infrastructure, and better machinery to increase production. Main agricultural products include cotton, fruit, tea, grains, tobacco, and vegetables. Herding exists in the mountainous areas for cattle, sheep, and other livestock.

Manufacturing

Since the country now focuses so much on the hydrocarbon industry, most local manufacturing is centered on small-scale equipment supporting the oil and natural gas industries.

Banking and Finance

The growth of the energy sector and the revenue it brings form the backbone of the Atropian financial system. This abundance encouraged the Atropian government to adopt expansionary programs based on state oil fund wealth. Even with this newfound wealth and governmental efforts toward bank reform, Atropia still does not possess a modern banking and financial system. The reforms’ failures stem mainly from an inefficient bureaucracy and business leaders who do not desire reforms because they would weaken their traditional forms of control.

Public Finance

Financial Policy

The recent abundance of oil development and transport revenue encouraged Atropia to embark on an ambitious expansionary fiscal policy. Expenditures rose from $8.5 billion last year to $16.8 billion this year. The 17-year-old state oil fund acts as the main repository for the revenue reaped from the oil sector; it currently stands at $11.2 billion. Development plans usually focus on improved social services for the Atropian citizen. Atropian critics complain, however, that plans contain no oversight and often come from the president with little input from other leaders.

Following the waning of Donovian influence 20 years ago, Atropia privatized most of its industries except for the very largest. The Atropian government owns ANOC, the most important business in Atropia. Other state-owned industries include transportation and electrical generation/distribution. Atropia privatized most of its agricultural sector, which resulted in an explosion of small-scale farmsteads. Although farmers improved their production in recent years, the agriculturally-dependent Atropians do not share in the wealth generated by the hydrocarbon industries.

Taxation

Key issues in the Atropian economy include equitable taxation policy and tax avoidance. Taxes range from 12-35%, with corporate taxation at 25%. Additionally, the tax structure has an aggressive depreciation schedule that, unsurprisingly, encourages oil extraction. Excise taxes and other fees and taxes, especially on imports, round out the revenue stream.

Public Liabilities/Debt

At present, Atropian public debt stands at 5.1% of its total GDP.

Private Banking

Atropia maintains a limited private banking capability, mostly to handle the large balance of payments from the petroleum trade. A key problem with the Atropian economy remains the weakness of the banking and finance sector. The Atropian Stock Exchange also handles the trade of local companies. A variety of state-owned, private, and international banks operate within Atropia. Most state-owned banks remain heavily saddled with non-performing debt. Many Atropian citizens keep large amounts of cash instead of depositing it into banks. The Atropia Central Bank handles central banking matters. It regulates the money supply, oversees banks, and creates monetary policy.

Employment Status

Atropia enjoys a low official unemployment rate, but this may be due to cultural beliefs against unemployment, even if the work does not fulfill the individual or the worker does not do anything productive. Atropian unemployment rates fluctuate around 6-7%, but many of these jobs occur in the service industry, agricultural sector, or in small-scale enterprises. Employment status is high in Atropia.

Illegal Economic Activity

In Atropia, illegal activities operate alongside legal trade. Corruption occurs so commonly throughout Atropia that people see it as part of the normal economic system. Considerable Atropian crime occurs in a “loyal underworld” system, where economic and political corruption builds alliances and increases personal influence. Most Atropians do not want to undermine the system, but to benefit the most from it. Atropians view disruptive activity negatively, and both legal and illegal organizations maintain a vested interest in facilitating smooth operations in their ventures.

The region contains criminal organizations such as the Bocyowicz Crime Family (BCF), which has developed into a sophisticated transnational criminal organization with ambitious economic and political agendas. The BCF is a third-generation criminal organization with the ability to control ungoverned territory within nation-states, acquire political power in poorly-governed regions, and eventually vie for geographic controlled space. These political actions are intended to provide security and freedom of movement for the organization’s activities. As a result, the BCF and its leadership challenge the legitimate state authority on exercise of political control and use of criminal violence within a given geographical area.

Other major organized crime groups operating in the country are the Atropian Organized Crime (AOC) group and the Al Iksir Cartel. The AOC operates primarily in Baku, while the Al Iksir Cartel operates in northern Atropia and southern Donovia. The Amali Diners’ Club often serves as a cover for criminal group members, as its events are designed to provide a venue for collaboration on a variety of criminal and illegal agendas.

The growth of illegal narcotics, smuggling, and even human trafficking conducted outside of established channels only began recently. Many of those involved in Atropian illegal activities live in communities of displaced Atropians from Lower Janga and persons who fled Donovia. Atropia serves as a transit point for narcotics travelling to Donovia and Western countries.

Summary

Complex economic interplay between the Caucasus countries binds them together. Limaria, Gorgas, and Atropia were strongly affected by the reduction of Donovian influence two decades ago. The oil- rich countries of Ariana and Atropia must use their Limarian and Gorgan neighbors to transship hydrocarbon resources to other countries. Limaria and Gorgas must develop a free-standing economy despite significant corruption, lack of developed industries, and natural resource shortages. Over all of this, Donovia seeks to limit Arianian influence and return to its former position as unquestioned regional hegemon. This economic interdependence will likely drive regional conflicts as the nations struggle amongst themselves to exploit riches created by oil and natural gas.