Africa
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Contents
Countries in the DATE Africa Operational Environment
Republic of Amari
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Republic of Ziwa
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Republic of Kujenga
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Democratic Republic of Nyumba
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Strategic Positioning
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Views of the US
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Regional PMESII-PT Overview
Political
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Military
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Economic
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Social
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Information
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Infrastructure
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Physical Environment
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Time
Regional info on this variable goes here.
Variable Conditions Overview by Country OE
| Amari | Ziwa | Kujenga | Nyumba | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
| Military | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
| Economic | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
| Social | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
| Information | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
| Infrastructure | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
| Physical Environment | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
| Time | *Bullet (Amari)
|
*Bullet (Ziwa)
|
*Bullet (Kujenga)
|
*Bullet (Nyumba)
|
Peacekeeping and Security Forces
Peacekeeping Forces
- International Peacekeeping Forces.
TO-DO: Description goes here Recent examples of peacekeeping forces with and international mandate include the forces of the UN mission in DATE Africa and the European Training Mission in DATE Africa.
- Regional Peacekeeping Forces.
TO-DO: Description goes here Recent examples of regional peacekeeping forces include the forces of the Regional Standby Force and the Regional Monitoring Group's Regional Economic Community Security Force.
See Also: TBD
Private Security Forces
- Corporate Private Security Forces.
Wealthy individuals and businesses may contract the services of corporate security forces. These forces are highly disciplined, organized and trained - recruiting mostly from former elite military and paramilitary forces. They are often used for high-end site and VIP security. They are capable of conducting small-unit, high-risk strikes with state-of-the-art equipment and vehicles. They have a significant intelligence and planning capability. While highly effective and fiercely loyal to their employer, they may have the propensity of over-aggression and risk extra-judicial actions. They may contract local security companies (see below) for mundane activities.
- Private Security Companies.
Rampant crime and inadequate policing, particularly in the urban areas has led to the rise of numerous private security companies. These companies provide security services for businesses and individuals ranging from static guards to armed response teams. Guarded facilities will likely have barbed wire and monitored cameras. The guards themselves are variously uniformed, from simple reflective vests and caps to military-style garb. They will either be unarmed (batons, irritants) or have a variety of small arms. The quality and cost of the services may indicate the professionalism of responses and adherence to company rules of engagement. These guards are often well-regarded in the community and may have excellent situational awareness of local activities and dynamics, as well as those of the poorer areas from which they are often recruited. Note: Non-commercial "neighborhood watches" may exist, but are less likely to be armed or provocative.
See also: TC 7-100 Irregular Opposing Forces, Chapter 5, Noncombatants - Private Security Contractors
Non-Governmental Organizations
- TODO: list general types, roles; include camps
See also: TC 7-100 Irregular Opposing Forces, Chapter 5, Noncombatants - Nongovernmental Organizations
Non-State Threat Actors in the OE
Higher-Affiliated Violent Extremist Orgs
There are a number of international or transnational Higher Affiliated Violent Extremist Organizations (VEO) presently operating within the OE. Many of these groups have indigenous origins, but have since affiliated with external groups for support and identity. Others may have their origins outside of the OE and gained a foothold on the continent. These hybrid organizations have the capability to organize and execute high-impact attacks against public targets and may be able to mass to conduct semi-conventional operations across the OE.
Major known groups in the OE include al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), al Shabaab, and the Army of Justice and Peace (AJP). The volatility of security situations across the OE allow rapid growth and morphing of extremist groups as they position for power and influence. Groups will change their tactics and affiliations to adapt to evolving country and regional dynamics.
Hybrid Armed Groups: Insurgents, Guerrillas, Militias
The variety of armed groups operating within the REGION OE is indicative of its complex and dynamic political, economic, ethnic, and religious issues. Their structures are as diverse as their ideological drivers. Most are not pure insurgencies, guerrilla groups, or militias, but rather hybrids of all of these. The key differentiators of these groups is their relative mix of forces and the primary driver of their actions.
Insurgencies. Whether motivated by political, religious, or other ideologies, these groups will promote an agenda of subversion and violence that seeks to overthrow or force change of a governing authority. The composition of these in the REGION OE is almost always a hybrid of insurgent elements and guerrilla forces, depending on the locale, goals, and levels of support. They may act as the militant arm of a legitimate political organization. These groups will undermine and fight against the government and any forces invited by or supporting it. They are likely to target government security forces and even civilians to demonstrate force and create instability. They will conduct small operations, such as kidnapping, assassination, bombings, car bombs, and larger military-style operations. Examples: Amarian People’s Union, Free Tanga Youth Movement.
Separatist Groups. These groups consist mostly of former (losing) soldiers that fought in a previous revolution or coup. Rather than fighting to overthrow the current regime, their focus is to secure a territory and gain officially recognition. These groups will likely have widespread support in the controlled area and view government or external forces as the enemy. They may provide security for commercial or NGO movement for a fee or to curry favor. Separatists will be very protective of their designated borders and may react disproportionately to perceived incursions. Examples: Some Separatist Group, Other Separatist Group.
Ethnic Rebel Groups. Numerous conflicts that are highlight ethnic, linguistic, or religious differences have led to the development of ethnicity-focused armed groups. Some groups have developed in self-defense against such groups, then gone onto be violent themselves. Extreme passions of these groups have led to often brazen atrocities, causing massive waves of IDPs. Multiple UN interventions may have temporarily quelled the violence, but long-held grievances give life to renewed violence. These groups may conduct raids, extrajudicial killings, targeted killings of civilians, and summary executions. There have been reports of rebels luring villagers to their town center for execution, often throwing bodies into the village water source to spoil it. These groups may attempt to seize strategic routes to assert control and raise funds. Examples: Some Ethnic Rebel Group, Other Ethnic Rebel Group.
Local Armed Militias. These groups usually have a local focus and may be independent or supported by a local strongman. Their forces are mostly comprised of former soldiers or paramilitary who may have fought for the state, but now serve their own interests. They generally carry small arms, but may have additional capabilities, depending on the goals and support. Moderate factions of these groups may conduct demonstrations, vandalism to force political concessions, while more radical factions conduct small attacks, riots, sabotage to enforce a particular ideology. In rural areas, they may be heavily armed and appear almost like a guerrilla force. In urban centers, they may resemble a gang or an insurgent group. Examples: Some Militia, Other Militia.
| Amari | Ziwa | Kujenga | Nyumba |
|---|---|---|---|
See also TC 7-100.3 Irregular Opposing Forces, Chapter 2: Insurgents and , Chapter 3: Guerrillas
Criminal Organizations and Activities
The often unstable economic and security situations across the continent have allowed criminal activity and corruption to flourish. Elsewhere in the world, corrupting and co-opting of government officials by criminal enterprises is usually to gain operating freedom. In the REGION OE, such activities are competitive enablers, intended to gain access to internal and external markets. How these large-scale domestic criminal enterprises and international criminal manifest within the OE are characteristic of each country's circumstances and history.
Criminal enterprises may have a pronounced impact on military operations in the REGION OE. Dominant criminal elements may view external military forces as a threat to their territorial control, while less-powerful organizations may look to exploit shifts in security and rules of engagement to gain access to markets or power.
The following are the main groups of organized criminal enterprises within the REGION OE:
- Drug Trafficking.
Heroin and cocaine are the main drugs for trafficking through the REGION OE. These drugs generally enter the OE via established lines of communication from Asia and Central/South America, are processed and packaged, then smuggled out of the OE to European and other lucrative markets. Heroin and cocaine have little domestic distribution. Several cartels dominate heroin and cocaine trafficking in the OE, including the powerful CARTEL NAME and CARTEL NAME cartels. Limited, tense cooperation or truces among organizations may exist to minimize public/political backlash and reduce unnecessary violence.
There are numerous smaller groups that specialize in other drugs, such as cannabis, methaqualone, and khat. These groups often operate growth or production facilities in proximity to an urban area or transit hub in areas with ineffective law enforcement. While these groups also export a substantial amount of their drugs to foreign markets, a large proportion is intended for domestic distribution.
All of these groups are highly territorial and have a history of being quick to violence. In addition to their primary drug, they will also be involved in ancillary criminal activities, such as protection, racketeering, prostitution, and commodity smuggling. Groups often operate with local political, community, or military awareness and possibly involvement. Operations are usually enabled by corrupt border or customs enforcement officials. Security at production and shipment facilities is paramount. In addition to their robust security forces, larger drug organizations may hire legitimate private security companies or partner with other irregular forces to secure their operations. Rural operations may have a guerrilla or militia-style forces to protect the organization's interests.
- Human Trafficking.
The practice of the theft, smuggling, and trafficking in persons has been an ongoing problem to the REGION OE. International organizations and NGOs have fought to reduce the problem, but the power and money in the practice make it a lucrative trade for a variety of criminal and irregular actors in the OE.
The sex trade is one of the key drivers of human trafficking in the OE. The victims are usually between 8 and 15-years of age. Some will be transported out of the OE to be sold as sex-slaves, while others are made to work within the OE in the sex-tourism industry. They are often acquired by kidnapping from outlying farms or small towns and may be members of vulnerable communities, such as the homeless, refugees, drug users, or urban trans-sexuals. They may also be stolen during interdicted migration or tourist movement. There have been a number of public markets reported where humans were available for purchase.
The other main purpose of trafficked persons within the OE is forced labor as soldiers, illicit mining, or other dangerous occupations. These victims will usually be 10 to 25 years old and male. The primary acquisition method is by raids on mines, camps, or private prisons. Some may initially volunteer, seeking wealth or out of desire for purpose. See also "AJP use of Child Soldiers".
- Commodity Theft and Smuggling.
Another outgrowth of the complex economic and political environment across the OE is illicit movement of finished goods and bulk commodities. Primary commodities include sugar, electronics, counterfeit goods, cigarettes, timber, stolen cars, minerals, and precious stones. Observable activities are often at/near port facilities and production locations. Bulk goods are often illicitly moved through large ports with assistance from corrupt officials to avoid customs fees. Corrupt officials may allow or facilitate these activities with falsified inspections and other documents. Linkage with known extremists (al Shabaab and Army of Justice and Peace) is likely.
Illicit mining occurs when a group seizes control of an abandoned commercial mining site. The sites may be perceived by their former owners as tapped-out or too dangerous to continue operations. Mined materials include gold, gems, and high value minerals. These operations are usually located in remote areas with ineffective law enforcement. Due to the volatile, protective nature of these operations and related illicit labor acquisition, violence and gang battles are a nightly occurrence, making transit through the areas extremely dangerous. Local government officials and possibly military elements may allow the sites to operate in exchange for favors.
A similar practice is oil theft, processing, and smuggling. These operations have several components and operate in areas where there is a large commercial operation and ineffective law enforcement. The first step is the theft by tapping or other means of a commercial pipeline. The product is then smuggled, usually by small independent operators, to a remote improvised refinery. From there, it may be smuggled offshore to waiting ships or in smaller quantities for consumer distribution. These operations have a variety of economic and political impacts. The local economy may depend on illicit supply, with networks of sellers throughout the local economy. Government policing and maritime patrolling will likely have difficulty finding or stopping these operations. Competition for these resources is high and territorial defenses may be brutal. Illicit operations may affiliate with guerrilla or militia groups.
- Protection Economies.
The longstanding practice of providing access to areas or resources is an outgrowth of the complex social realities rampant within the REGION OE, incl. poor governance and law enforcement. These activities may be conducted my local irregular forces or even corrupt government officials and military/paramilitary elements. While essentially criminal, those involved may have strong local acceptance, as they are often more nimble and effective than the government capabilities. Rather than being an impediment, many view these practices as a basic cost of doing business that streamlines governance and allows access to global markets.
These criminal protection practices may leverage private security organization to portray legitimacy and professionalism. Corrupt politicians or military elements may use criminal or other irregular forces for effectiveness and deniability. External forces or NGOs in the OE may risk attacks or losses if not cooperative. Protection groups may give discounts to gain other objectives or curry favor.
Other Threat Actors in the OE
- Criminal Gangs.
Street crime is common in most places of the world, but the power, organization, and integration with other irregular elements is of special importance to Forces operating in the REGION OE. Large numbers of displaced or marginalized young men, combined with volatile economic conditions and inconsistent law enforcement have led to these dangerous groupings. Many members join for self-protection or to have a sense of purpose, but many see it as one of the few avenues to financial security and status.
Criminal gangs in the OE are generally observable as small groups or gatherings of more than 100 and are most often localized to their stated territories. They will be armed with a mix of small arms, improvised blades and incendiaries. They may also quickly employ improvised obstacles such as burning tires, debris, and cars. Their somewhat limited armed capabilities are greatly enhanced with ubiquitous mobile communications and in-depth knowledge of their territories. They have high situational awareness of forces and activities in and around their areas of control. Their sophisticated use of social media to conduct precision attacks and avoid detection.
Gangs may be hired or motivated to assist other irregular groups. Insurgent groups have reportedly contracted gangs to infiltrate peaceful demonstrations to agitate and destabilize the crowd. Guerrilla groups and militias regularly use these gangs to conduct low-level strikes and kidnapping for forces labor.
See also: TC 7-100.3 Irregular Opposing Forces, Chapter 4: Criminals-Gangs
- Agitated Civilian Groups.
Large groups of civilians may assemble for planned or spontaneous demonstrations or protest. The factors influencing a crowd's agitation and potential violent actions are diverse and complex. There will usually be one or more motivating incidents leading to the gathering that is likely organized via social media. These assemblies are generally only loosely organized, but can rapidly coalesce and escalate tensions. Otherwise peaceful demonstrations may be driven to act as a mob or even pushed into riot. Large groups of civilians may be hired or leveraged by criminals or insurgents to create distractions, dynamic obstacles, or INFOWAR opportunities.
See also: TC 7-100.3 Irregular Opposing Forces, Chapter 5: Noncombatants
Potential conflict flashpoints
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